Good, bad and just plain silly news for 2012

[Canoehead]

That's odd... most people I know, myself included, made more than double at our previous 703/704 Gigs.

CK

Perhaps if you are comparing first year(2) type wages, but I can tell you that making just shy of $100K after 6 years with the company isn't too shabby. They're not AC wages, and they're not WJ wages, but Jazz wages are pretty good I think. Yes the first few years are less than stellar, but overall, we are well compensated.

Just my opinion.

[Bang]

I'm wondering, if it's a good thing to go to Jazz, when you know that in 2020 the contract with Air Canada will end. Do you think Jazz will survive ? I'm asking this question cause i would like to join Jazz, but i'm afraid with their future.

[Stinky]

Personally, I think Jazz will see massive layoffs in 2020. If you're not in the top 5 or 6 hundred you should be worried.

[Plim Sole]

For gods sake!
It's 12 years away and no one knows what the future holds! AC could be in bankruptcy for the 3rd time and WJ could be having its own massive problems by then.
Don't worry about 2020 just yet IMHO.

[Stinky]

It's 8 years.

[prop2jet]

For gods sake!
It's 12 years away and no one knows what the future holds! AC could be in bankruptcy for the 3rd time and WJ could be having its own massive problems by then.
Don't worry about 2020 just yet IMHO.

Try 8 years away... Jazz peaked at 137 aircraft. With 125 aircraft covered by the CPA with Air Canada, I am expecting that number will diminish. The flying will be distributed to the lowest cost bidder, so if the management of Jazz want to stay in the game, they are going to have to start cutting on the dividend distribution and look for other revenue sources outside of the CPA environment.

I think we will have a fairly good idea of how things are going to play out once the rate arbitration is resolved in April. Safe to say, that if it goes AC's way, Chorus/Jazz will be coughing up cash and an increased downard figure will be the new baseline for the rate renwal negotiations to cover the next period through 2015. If the outcome favors Jazz, AC will be looking for retribution in the rate renewal negots. Either way, Jazz is going to be giving up some of it's CPA profit. Maybe it's time to think about shorting Chorus stock...

AC is not exactly on solid ground, so this entire discussion could be moot in a couple of years. If you have an offer from Jazz with no prospects elsewhere, you might as well accept it as it won't cost you anything. You would not be the first to bail out just after completing the training.

[Plim Sole]

Sorry about that, I meant 8 years! Too much rushing before having to turn the phone off on a dead head!

Look, what everyone has said is simply speculation. If you want to make career decisions based on speculations then go ahead.
Remember though that it is possible that at some point in the next 8 years the CPA could be extended another 10 years and some other form of CPA flying will be found and all will be rosy.
I think it's important to point out good speculation as well as the bad.

Personally, I'm not wasting anytime worrying about the what if's of 2020. There are a bunch of twists, turns and surprises to come before then and some of them will be good I'm sure.

[Mig29]

I agree with you Plim.

8 years is pretty long time to speculate on the outcome of Jazz or for that matter even AC/WJ/AT/PD etc.

[intruder-flight]

Well, speaking for myself and other friends who fly for 703s in Wonderful Quebec, most FOs start at $25,000 to $28,000 for King Airs, and once up to Capts, its between $33,000 to $46,000. Navajos, Be10, Be20.

If you were on stand-by yesterday, and dispatch never called you, then yesterday was a day off.

GDO is Christmas day and New Years day.

[Ifly]

It can't be a bad thing to come here at the moment, as I think Jazz is going to become very transient for the next 8 years. I think a lot of guys with around 5 years in just dug up their resumes and are looking for something new.

For me, I can't wait and see what 8 years down the road will bring, I'll be 40 years old with a 9 year old son and not in a good place to start over at the bottom somehwere when Jazz shuts the doors for the last time.

By all means come over to Jazz, get some RJ or Dash time, get the PPCs on your license, but keep an eye on the world outside. Make the leap to somewhere stable when the opportunity presents itself.

[Stinky]

I'm generally pretty optimistic but I'll hope for the best and plan for the worst. In 2020 I'll be in my late 40's with a couple teenagers at home. I don't want to be unemployed or a year one f/o at skyregional at that time.

[TypeRated]

I'm wondering, if it's a good thing to go to Jazz, when you know that in 2020 the contract with Air Canada will end. Do you think Jazz will survive ? I'm asking this question cause i would like to join Jazz, but i'm afraid with their future.

I'd be looking at 2015! AC's market share has dropped a lot in the past few years!

"The CPA Amending Agreement also provides Air Canada with the right to revise the MADUG in the event Air Canada’s domestic market share for the twelve month period from October 1, 2014 to September 30, 2015 has decreased by a fixed percentage compared to its domestic market share for the twelve month period from August 1, 2008 to July 31, 2009. In the event of such a decrease, the CPA Amending Agreement requires that Air Canada and Chorus agree upon a revised MADUG by November 17, 2015, failing which Air Canada shall have the right to unilaterally set a revised MADUG by sending Chorus notice by November 20, 2015. The CPA Amending Agreement provides Chorus with the right to send Air Canada notice by December 18, 2015, of Chorus’ intention to either accept the revised MADUG or exercise its right to terminate the CPA as of December 31, 2016."

[DH772]

The transition at 2020 will not be instantaneous! If Jazz is to be shrunk it will happen over the next 8 years. What do you think come January 1st 2020, Jazz will be cut in half? How do you expect another carrier to take on 400 flights a day and find 60 aircrafts to operate the next day. Answer is you won't. So any downsizing and distribution of flying will happen mostly over the next 8 years and possibly see a bigger decline once 2020 does hit. You WILL NOT see a major change quickly because quite frankly jazz is TOO BIG to just replace over night. So the idea of 1000 pilots getting laid off is pretty unrealistic.

8 years is far away and even though the years may be gloom, it is a very long time in the aviation industry to predict.

[RFN]

Between now and 2020:

More and more transborder work will be farmed out to US regionals through code share agreements with Star Alliance.
(ie YOW-IAD, YUL-IAD etc etc)

Skyregional will pick up more work out of YTZ. Easy to undercut with no pension.

WestJet's regional (should it go ahead) will be far more popular, especially out West. Reduced numbers of pax will short the numbers of Jazz flights required.

So no, I don't believe that Jazz will be cut in half in 2020, I believe it will be a slow erosion down to that point. After that, it will be a slaughter.

It is hilarious to think that only 2 years after Jazz was a laughing stock for it's poor pay, it has apparently fixed the problem (or at least mitigated it) only to find that we have "legacy costs". What an industry.

One can only coast in one direction.

[loadshed]

Take a look at Comair down south - the once giant regional providing feed for Delta.
They will have removed 49 aircraft from service between this year and last year, and their total fleet will be down to a mere 44 aircraft.
Insert WJ Regional, and Sky Regional in place of names like Compass, ASA, Skywest and Mesaba to get the Canadian picture.

[prop2jet]

Take a look at Comair down south - the once giant regional providing feed for Delta.
They will have removed 49 aircraft from service between this year and last year, and their total fleet will be down to a mere 44 aircraft.
Insert Porter, WJ Regional, and Sky Regional in place of names like Compass, ASA, Skywest and Mesaba to get the Canadian picture.

Good example, however lets be clear that what is happening in the U.S. is as a result of consolidation of mainline carriers, streamlining their duplicate regional feeds. Consolidation also provides a return of some routes to the mainline as it now has a higher load to carry.

What is taking place now in Canada is expansion. AC will maintain it's presence in the regional marketplace and will do so by ensuring it pays for the service at the lowest cost possible. Chorus/Jazz is going to have to lower the fee it charges to AC in order to remain competitive with SkyRegional or who ever else shows up on the scene. One thing is certain, there is not enough room for 3 carriers providing lift out of regional markets, operating Q400's and be profitable at the same time.

[BingBong]

Skyregional will pick up more work out of YTZ

Hard to do when they can't get any new slots at the island...not to mention they were part of a collective agreement that ACPA never accepted.
Who knows how long scabregional will even exist.

[Redwine]

Another classic case of feeding off each other and spreading fear. Nobody can predict the future. Fact is there will be a shortage of qualified pilots pilots in the near future. Don't forget massive retirements coming soon. Things may look gloomy now with all the happenings going on but things change, as they always do. It's a lot better now, than it was in 1990-1992.

[Scuba_Steve]

Another classic case of feeding off each other and spreading fear. Nobody can predict the future. Fact is there will be a shortage of qualified pilots pilots in the near future. Don't forget massive retirements coming soon. Things may look gloomy now with all the happenings going on but things change, as they always do. It's a lot better now, than it was in 1990-1992.

+1

[Scuba_Steve]

Another classic case of feeding off each other and spreading fear. Nobody can predict the future. Fact is there will be a shortage of qualified pilots pilots in the near future. Don't forget massive retirements coming soon. Things may look gloomy now with all the happenings going on but things change, as they always do. It's a lot better now, than it was in 1990-1992.

+1

[Beach 200]

Just remember, Jazz has money in the bank. They are not in debt like Air Canada. Jazz can easily buy out another airline or start there own regional. Maybe Jazz is stockpiling for the possible AC bankruptcy and you will see Jazz buy mainline! It has happened between Crossair and Swiss airlines. Anything is possible!! Funny how people speculate the worst. Maybe you will think twice about buying a house or car. Or just leave Aviation altogether if your uncomfortable with the so called "job security" you impose on yourself.

[oh yeah baby]

Well Chorus Aviation has has a long terme debt of 167m, a short term debt of 246m and liability of 92m vs asset of 641m. The shareholder capital is 136m for 124m shares (1.10$ per share of tangible net asset assuming the 48 dash8 100 + 300 really worth 140m . It leave very little money to diversified or buy an airline.

Since they remove the valuation of intangile asset in 2010 (theorical valuation of AC contract) and the payout ratio of 130% (45 cents payout vs 37 cents net income) so far in 2011 the real share value is going south with less and less money every quarter in the cie. Basicaly, the airline is bleeding more money vs what they receive toward shareholder pocket every quarter.

But you are right, for the moment with a negative valuation (-2.2billion) anybody can afford AC...



http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zht ... ortsAnnual

[RFN]

That's what happens when someone actually does the research before posting their opinion.
Now knock it off; you are ruining good old fashioned useless speculation.

I think Jazz should:

Hook up with CargoJet for some kind of cross-use of our mutual 757 affliction.
Buy / Merge with CanJet (YHZ love-in)
Buy Energet and start putting some serious effort into Oil Sands charter work.
Go back to Suncor with our hats in our hands and lowered eyes and see if they are still interested in our operating their a/c.
Start seriously talking with Hydro Quebec to see if we can work some charter stuff for them in Northern QB.
Punch SkyRegional in the taint.
Look at the stunning numbers of operators overseas who use Dash-8s and even the ones with RJs.

Etc Etc Etc Etc

[oh yeah baby]

[std by]

You all forget.... It's 2012.... Other people projected the end is this year not 2020... Speculation is a waste of time..