Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

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just curious
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by just curious »

It should kick in about the time I hit sixty-five. I shall immediately apply to Air Canada at that time. Not cause I need the job, I just want to crank up their blood pressure. :wink:
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by 2R »

Careful JC, they would probaly hire you based on your great mentoring abilities and all around general niceness and usefullness,and then, that might cut back on your well earned walleye hunt time.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by tester »

If you want a reasonably objective assessment of whether there is a pilot shortage about to hit the aviation industry, read the 26 June-2 July 2012 edition of "Flight International".

Also, don't confuse what's happening in Canada with what is going on now, and has been for a while, in the wider world. Many CPL graduates in Europe get their first job in the right seat of airliner, not working the ramp in the frozen north, or bush flying. They're not making much money, but they are in positions from which they can progress further fairly easily.

I'm not saying that it will all change quickly in Canada, but why wait here to see if it does, when all you need is a EASA licence and the big aviation world will open up for you?
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Panama Jack »

Today I was reading an article about Spring Airlines (a Chinese LCC) in the July 2012 issue of Low Cost & Regional Airline Business Magazine.

In the article, CEO and co-founder Zhang Xiuzhi said that business was going great with 95% load factors and plans to grow from 31 aircraft today to 60 aircraft by 1015. But besides the Government "one of the biggest impediments to growth is the global pilot shortage. Pilots at Spring are said to be well-paid and brought in from far afield. But as the LCC word spreads in Asia, which is seeing phenomenal numbers of aircraft orders, pilots are are beicoming increasingly thin on the ground. 'It is one of the major factors that has slowed down the pace of our rapid expansion,' says Zhang. 'All Chinese airlines are facing a shortage of pilots."

Despite much of the trite commentaries about "jobs in Third World countries," living in places like Dubai, Doha, Shanghai or Istanbul can hardly be described as Third World (unless, of course, you are one of those elitists who has never had to live or work outside of Vancouver or Toronto). A lot of places in Canada get more third-worldish than this.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by North Shore »

In the article, CEO and co-founder Zhang Xiuzhi said that business was going great with 95% load factors and plans to grow from 31 aircraft today to 60 aircraft by 1015.
1015! Drat those Chinese! Re-writing history at every turn..here we were, thinking that Orville and Wilbur stumbled upon something in 1903! :lol:
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by North Shore »

tester wrote:If you want a reasonably objective assessment of whether there is a pilot shortage about to hit the aviation industry, read the 26 June-2 July 2012 edition of "Flight International".
Here's the link for those who are interested: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ll-373274/
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Railer »

Bottom line, would you, if you were back at the beginning jump ship from a job you currently hold to go flying based purely on economics. I think everyone one here would do it for the love of flying but with a family to think of and bills to pay is now a better time to trade in work boots and office jobs for epaulettes and the blue sky.

Still trying to decide what's the best way to go.


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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Panama Jack »

Railer, the economics of aviation in Canada are poor. Future (growth-based) opportunities will be outside of Canada. That will create opportunities for those who are willing to leave, and hopefully some suction effect for those who want to stay. I could also possibly foresee opportunities as close as the United States if they ever get their immigration laws in order there (something that I have hoped for for over 20 years, and we are no closer to it happening).

The pain is least when starting out with very little and when you are young, energetic and enthusiastic. Despite all the debate about whether flying is a "profession" or not, it is very much a career path and it takes years to develop. It also involves its internship like hardship and hazing rituals.

Keep talking to as many people as you can and figure out what you and your families capabilities are. After a while, flying becomes job like any other-- you look forward to days off and vacations and there are some days you wish you didn't have to come to work. There are bosses who you wish would be run over by a car, and colleagues who must have graduated from clown college. Lots of realities that you can't control and sometimes it feels like your job security is being bet by managers in a game of poker.

But you only do have one shot at life, and nothing is guaranteed, safe or secure in this World. The great success stories are written by those who did something without complete information and against the odds, and they perservered.

Good luck on whichever route you choose.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by tsgas »

PJ that was very well stated and is something that should be discussed with anyone that is considering entering the field of aviation.
If we were able to predict the future then we could make our fortune on the stock market and simply fly for pleasure.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Independence »

I am going to use the upcoming pilot shortage (U.P.S) as an investment tool. Every time the U.P.S reaches a fever pitch I'm going to sell all my stocks and stay in cash as the global economy is about to crash....yet again.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Mostly Harmless »

fish4life wrote:Mostly harmless I think a big chunk of that can be attributed to the fact that flying that used to be done in single engine cessnas is now being done in navijo's, navijo flying has moved to king airs, king air flying to 705 machines like dash 8's and ATR's
That might explain some of it, fish4life, but it still does not address the 12(+) fold increase in hiring at the airline level in the last 6-8 years. Things are better now than they were. Unfortunately, I don't have a surefire way to predict the future so I cannot say with absolute certainty that things will continue to be better. I also won't say it is perfect in our industry, but it really isn't that great in anyone else's industry either... unless you are a Wall Street type.
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Post by Beefitarian »

Wall Street type? Are those the fellas that jump outta widows? Guess it depends what you're into.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Mostly Harmless »

Naw... they're the guys who lose your money on bad investments and then pay themselves a multimillion dollar bonus for doing such a good job.
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Post by Beefitarian »

The cream rises to the top but so does the scum?
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Tubthumper »

Every time I see this "Pilot Shortage" topic come up, it almost always has the word "Experienced" left out of the title, whether it be on forums, news, or the sugar coated ads that the Flight Schools put in the papers. Not that the Flight Schools know (or care) what that word means, but there too many of these 'Puppy Mills', more than should have been allowed to operate in the first place. :roll:
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by canam2000 »

this is why i put the post out...everyone should know their own worth.

as of yesterday:

http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index ... icle=21797

http://consumerist.com/2012/07/will-a-l ... -crew.html

http://www.boston.com/business/news/201 ... story.html

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-07- ... t-shortage


can post more for the guys who still don't believe.....we are on the same team!
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Panama Jack »

http://www.clarionledger.com/article/20 ... |text|Home


WASHINGTON — An industry forecast that nearly half a million new airline pilots will be needed worldwide over the next 20 years as airlines expand their fleets has raised safety concerns that airlines will hire lower caliber pilots as they struggle to fill slots.

Boeing, one of the world's largest makers of commercial jetliners, forecasts about 465,000 new pilots will be needed worldwide between now and 2031 as global economies expand and airlines take deliveries of tens of thousands of new commercial jetliners. The forecast includes 69,000 new pilots in the North America, mostly in the U.S. The greatest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, where an estimated 185,600 new pilots will be needed.

Likewise, Boeing predicts 601,000 new aircraft maintenance technicians will be needed over the same period, with greatest demand ó 243,500 technicians in the Asia-Pacific region. An estimated 92,500 new technicians will North America.

The rising global demand for airline pilots has raised concern among industry and government officials that there will be a global and a domestic pilot shortage.

"In many regions of the world, a pilot shortage is already here," the Boeing forecast said. "Asia Pacific in particular is experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints."

That's particularly true in China and India, industry officials said. Airlines based in Asia and the Middle East have been holding pilot job fairs in the U.S. and thousands of pilots laid off due to U.S. airline bankruptcies and mergers are now flying for foreign carriers.

"We have airlines around the world as they buy our airplanes and come to us on the training side of the house, saying 'We're struggling to fill (pilot) seats. Can you help us?' " said Carl Davis, Boeing's chief of pilot services. Davis presented his company's forecast Thursday at a conference in Washington on pilot training hosted by the Air Line Pilots Association, the world's largest pilot union.

U.S. industry and government officials are also concerned that the rising global demand for pilots, combined with an anticipated wave in pilot retirements and tougher qualification standards for new pilots that kick-in next year, will create a domestic shortage as well.

"I'm concerned because it has safety implications," John Allen, the Federal Aviation Administration's director of flight services, told The Associated Press.

Allen said he wants to spur a discussion among industry, labor unions, and academia about a potential shortage that will "really look at this and address it, not to just sweep it under the rug ... Is this a problem? And, if it is a problem, how bad is it?"

He said he is fearful that if there is a shortage, airlines will hire pilots who are technically qualified but don't have the "right stuff."

"If the industry is stretched pretty thin ... that can result in someone getting into the system that maybe isn't really the right person to be a pilot. Not everybody is supposed to be a pilot," Allen said.

Officials for the Airlines for America and the International Air Transport Association didn't respond to a request for comment.

Lee Moak, president of the pilots union, said he doubts a pilot shortage will be felt in the U.S. for about three to five years. If U.S. airlines start hiring pilots in large numbers, he said, pilots now flying for foreign carriers will likely return home. There are currently about 90,000 airline pilots in the U.S. and Canada.

"Globally is another matter," Moak said.

Industry and government officials anticipate a wave of pilot retirements at U.S. airlines beginning this year. Five years ago, the FAA raised the mandatory retirement age for pilots from 60 to 65. The fifth anniversary of that decision is Dec. 13. Pilots who were age 60 on that date five years ago are reaching the age where they have to retire.

Also, FAA regulations created in response to an aviation safety law passed by Congress two years ago will raise the experience threshold required to be an airline first officer from the current 250 hours of flying time to 1,500 hours, the same level as required of captains. That's expected to make it harder for airlines to find qualified new applicants.

At the same time, the pool of military-trained pilots that airlines have relied upon in the past has largely dried up as more pilots choose to remain in the military rather than seek airline careers, industry officials said. That means airlines have had to rely on new hires that have accumulated their experience at flight schools and, later, working as flight instructors at local airports and the flight schools.

"The cost of getting into flying is very expensive," Davis said. "When I talk to college students, if they're coming out of a 4-year collegiate (aviation) program most of them are $150,000 -to- $160,000 in debt. And that only gives them the qualifications to go be a flight instructor. If you're making $20,000 a year as a flight instructor you're lucky."
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by skat0r »

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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Mig29 »

teacher wrote:My thoughts on a pilot shortage? There isn't one.

I totally 100% agree with as well!!

Plenty of QUALIFIED guys around still waiting for a decent job.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by RB211 »

Mig29 wrote:...
Plenty of QUALIFIED guys around still waiting for a decent job.
Define 'Qualified'.

Qualified is variable based on the specific criteria asked/required for a given position. It is not just about hours.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by skat0r »

Qualified as a commercial pilot?
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by Panama Jack »

Interesting discussion. A few random thoughts:

1) North America is the least likely venue for a pilot "shortage," as many posters seem to envision, because the aviation industries are relatively mature (no high growth rates) and because entry barriers for pilots are low: criteria are not overly rigorous, costs are affordable, training providers are many. And significant increase in demand will have people coming to the schools to address the supply side.

2) The standards for Commercial Licenses were largely framed in a day and age when your first job might be flying a Cessna 172 for an air taxi or in the right seat of a DC-3 or DC-4. Aircraft complexity has advanced considerably since then and there is widespread debate on whether the present training schemes for Professional Pilots adequately tool future pilots for the way airplanes are operated today. Additionally, while a Commercial License with a few hundred hours may have done the trick to get into the right seat of a Vickers Viscount at Trans-Canada Airlines or a DC-3 at American Airlines, in the near future it will not be sufficient to get into a Dash 8 at US regionals (remember Buffalo, NY)?

3) Minimum qualifications for a License or a Rating differ from minimum qualifications for airline jobs. In the first case, if you meet the qualifications you have a guarantee that you will get what you are seeking. This is not the same for jobs. Numerous other intangible factors come into play and, quite frankly, some can be unfair.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by RB211 »

skat0r wrote:Qualified as a commercial pilot?
It is too general. I have 12,000+ hours and fly a wide body. So by definition I would be qualified?

If the position in question, though, was a Twin Otter on floats, I can safely say I am not 'qualified'.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by DHCdriver »

Mig29 wrote:teacher wrote:
My thoughts on a pilot shortage? There isn't one.



I totally 100% agree with as well!!

Plenty of QUALIFIED guys around still waiting for a decent job.
I agree with you as well, I'm hearing layoffs in YWG with Calm Air? So there can't be that much of a shortage when companys are laying off drivers.
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Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage

Post by bmc »

What the hell does Boeing, Airbus, ICAO and IATA know? They should be talkin to the lads on floatplane dock.
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