Decision time....

[props ahead]

Looking for a little insight.....hopefully without the bickering...

As somebody who has a choice to go to AC or not and am having a very difficult time making the decision. I am at a good company now that has some potential but nothing is for sure....I always wanted to work for AC but realize that it is a VERY different company than before.

So the pay is better to start now....at least for the first couple of years, but still in my opinion still decent for year three and four. I understand that if I do go I will end up working for the LCC at some point. If I were to start on the EMB does that provide me any job security if they send them to the LCC? OR is the LCC just Airbus and 67's? If you were working at the LC do you hold your seniority number to work your way back into the mainline as time goes on? How big is the potential to get there and find yourself completely out of work in a year or 2 since I would have a start date after Aug 1?

Is it possible that a job at AC could still be a smart choice? Possibly get into a LCC at the ground level with room to grow into a better position?

These are honest questions for somebody (I know im not alone) who has to make a big decision in the near future. Stay with the regional that may be big someday....or go to AC and risk being unemployed at some point. If you are going to slam this post and the company please join any of the other 100 threads where that is already happening.

Thanks

[Big Pistons Forever]

Nobody knows where any company will be in a few years. Ya pays your money and makes yer choice.

My only advice is at the end of he day life style is the only thing that matters. So what if there is 30 more feet of airplane behind you, if moving jobs means you have to live on the opposite side of the country as your family, you drag your ass home after every CAR's min rest, back side of the clock 5 day pairing, and for the first 10 years you are always potentially on the street when the suits latest "good idea, guaranteed to enhance shareholder value " crashes and burns......

[Caballero]

Best of luck swimming upstream in this forum, but I personally still feel it would be a great move.

Bottom line is the company has been around for 75 years and has made it through mergers, 911, Sars, and bankruptcy through all of which there has been minimal layoffs and no one has ever missed a paycheque. If you choose to take an opportunity with Air Canada, you would obtain a seniority number and WORST case if things slow down or downsize, you could even have an opportunity to take a leave of absence with some great type ratings and a solid resume to do WHATEVER you want, all with a number waiting for you.

Thinking far beyond worst case, there's tons of opportunity. It is still a JOB after all, and the company you work for needs to have the ability to make adjustments in order to be competitive in order to provide you with that job. Regardless of whatever happens with growth/reduction and regardless of new retirement rules, there are still demographics of 1000 pilots turning 60 in the next 7 years. With a true upcoming shortage of pilots in Canada, along with 1/3 of the workforce nearing retirement at the largest airline in the country, you're going to be just fine.

It's still a great job, and while the machine will change, it will keep turning. Items such as the LCC could actually be a great opportunity for a guy walking in the door.

Feel free to PM me if you'd like more specifics.

[vic777]

...I always wanted to work for AC .... the pay is better to start now....at least for the first couple of years, but still in my opinion still decent for year three and four.

Join AC, it's a no brainer .... then in Four years, re-evaluate the situation using all you have learned. I would advise living no more than a two hour car drive from your base .... one hour is better.

[DanWEC]

With a true upcoming shortage of pilots in Canada, along with 1/3 of the workforce nearing retirement at the largest airline in the country, you're going to be just fine.

Everyone has their perspectives, and this point has been debated like crazy. Just curious, what supporting evidence do you use to reinforce your opinion on the shortage, which according to some people has always been seemingly imminent, but never realized?

There are about 1200 cpls given annually, however a chunk of those are foreign pilots that return to their native country. About 600 atpls get issued every year, it's a safe bet that those pilots are working in Canada.
A pretty rough average new workforce might be 800 per year.
Is the annual amount of attrition greater that that? AC retirees account for 125 per year (That's assuming they get replaced at all) Also, we always seem to hear about smaller camps 'n such unfortunately shutting their doors, more than new ones opening up.

Given a retirement rate of 4 percent for 15000 pilots (very high estimate of working pilots in Canada) you get 600 pilots retiring every year.
There are 800 new pilots every year.


Now, of course this is limited to just Canada. I really hope there really will be more demand, and not just on top.

[KAG]

If the Major Airlines is what you want to do, it's a no brainer. Sure AC has been getting slammed lately, but lets be honest - there not going anywhere. You may find you love it, or maybe hate it. Dust off the resume and apply elsewhere with a new type rating, No big deal. Chances are once in you'll enjoy it and your finally where you always wanted to work.
Congrats on being in a position where your stressing over accepting the job, not hoping to get it.

[Morav]

NOT being an AC pilot is a lot better than being a laid off Airline Pilot.


Choose your airlines wisely.

[flyloose]

Hi...

If you're at some kind of regional airline, be it in the left seat or not.....you still will be if you stay at your current job. Basically what you see is what you get.

If you roll the dice a bit perhaps some great opportunities will come your way. No one knows how all this will play out in the long term, but in the short term they plan on hiring continually for the next while.

There is no provision for the EMJ's at the LCC, only A-319's and 767's.

The no lay off provision is only for people currently on the property, so no you would not be covered by that. As an aside, the language around that is rather weak anyway.

If you get hired into the mainline directly, as anyone in the immediate future would and are subsequently forced reduced to LCC, you would not "USE" a course right to be trained over.

Hope this helps,

Good luck with your decision

[Dockjock]

The LCC work rules are the same as WJ, so "work rules" isn't a reason to shy away from LCC per se. The pay scales were intended for the purpose of arbitration to mirror those of WJ and AT, and the hourly rates do (sort of...with a few glaring and very aggravating exceptions). Your schedule will definitely be better at LCC than it will be at mainline, because the block and vacation bidding system will not be seniority based it will be spread around. This drives senior Air Canada pilots NUTS. The actual wording in the contract is "Fair Share" blocking system and the typical reaction is "FAIR? I don't like the sound of that." Ha ha

I think the LCC as presented is going to be a business failure, in my opinion. But as a job, it won't be too much different from WJ or AT or Sunwing although the pay WILL be worse for the first 5 years, you have a higher potential upside 10-20 years down the road.

[MeAndMrPenguin]

Simple answer.

It is easier to go back later than to wait to go.

Get a type rating, see if it fits you, and keep your doors open.

Most that I know that decided not to, regret it later.

[Takeoff OK]

If there's one glaring lesson that has been learned with great pain in the U.S., it is NEVER, EVER, EVER! pass up the chance to get out of the regionals. Sure, there are a lot of question marks hanging over AC's future, as well as everyone else's, but no entity is more fragile than the "regional feeder". Lift contracts come and go, and that potential growth you see at your current job could very easily dissolve into massive reductions a few years down the road. Just look to Comair if you need a point of reference. While the Canadian feeder industry looks better than that south of the border, the trends are only pointing to the same crap happening up here.

Simply put: If you have the option to move out and up, take it.

[Xander]

Hi,

Is it your dream to come here? If it is, don't hesitate. Join us.

AC is not what I thought it would be before I got here, but its still an excellent job, by far the best I've had in my life

Yes, morale is low among the troops for the moment, and I think its perfectly normal. Thats the hardest part so far for me.

But at the end of the day I'm still flying a marvelous machine with a half decent pay, good conditions, tons of opportunities for the future (787, upgrade, etc) and delicious on board snacks .

As for employment safety, to what extent does it really exist in this industry? Worst case, youll have a new type rating and AC in your resume. 2 great things to have if you ask me.

[Sea2Sky]

Do what's right by your family/ quality of life situation. If it's not a major hardship to come over, do it... LCC or not, it's a major airline that's going to be here in one form or another. If this is going to wreck your home life, THEN you have a choice to make.

[Morav]

Tomorrow, you're laid off with an EMB190 type rating and a couple hundred hours on type. Now, please tell me where you'd go?? If you think you're going to land some sweet expat job, you better do your research... FO time outside your home country means practically nothing. I'm not saying it's impossible, just be prepared to get in line!

[complexintentions]

I have to agree with Morav on his point, from an expat's point of view. Yes, there are a lot of overseas jobs but most of them are shockingly bad, and the "good" ones are highly competitive. There are people desperate to get into some of the expat jobs like CX, EK, etc that are far more viable than an Air Canada FO. A Canadian airline pilot may be competitive in Canada but once you go overseas you're trying to get jobs that whole failed airlines of pilots are also pursuing.

Not saying this as a disagreement with going for it at Air Canada, but don't do so thinking that if it doesn't work out, you'll slide right into a premium overseas job. It's less than likely. Besides, most AC pilots would shudder if they saw or had to fly an expat roster.

I also disagree with the certainty that Air Canada will be around indefinitely. I just can't see how a company with a valuation less than one widebody aircraft, with 25,000 employees and 28,000 retirees and a pension deficit of 4 billion dollars, reporting continual losses, can go on forever. I say that without a hint of malice, by the way.

[RudderWhat]

There are people desperate to get into some of the expat jobs like CX, EK, etc that are far more viable than an Air Canada FO.

Such as? (it's actually a genuine question).
I'm assuming you mean captains with time on medium jets? A320, 737, etc?

[yycflyguy]

There are people desperate to get into some of the expat jobs like CX, EK, etc that are far more viable than an Air Canada FO.

Such as? (it's actually a genuine question).
I'm assuming you mean captains with time on medium jets? A320, 737, etc?

There are more expat guys out there with heavy command time than you'd think.

[Eric Janson]

@ props ahead

Disclaimer:- The following represent my views based on my experiences in the Aviation Industry over the past 25+ years. I realise that the question "What do you want?" has different answers for all of us. Hopefully this will give you something to think about.

-Make the choices that are right for you.

-Flag Carriers are the top tier of the Industry. Generally this is where you will find the best Terms and Conditions.

-There is no such thing as a stable job in this Industry (doesn't matter who you work for).

-There is no Airline "too big to fail" (doesn't matter who you work for).

-North America and Europe are in a huge Economic mess and it's only going to get worse. Any future growth/jobs in the Industry will be in Asia.

-I would not want to be at the bottom of anyone's Seniority List given the above.

-Never give up your Command. There is no guarantee that you will ever get it back. I've quit a job where I was going to be moved back to F/O. No regrets - it was the right choice for me.

-Don't be too hasty to jump ship - the grass isn't always greener. I've had the chance to join several companies who are now bankrupt.

-Don't burn your bridges - today's F/O may be the HFO deciding whether to extend your contract in 15 years time. Aviation is a very small World..

-The key to survival in this Industry is "Marketability" imho. Have the Type Ratings/Experience that are in demand worldwide. Example Capt. A320/B737NG. Lots of jobs - they may not be the greatest Terms and Conditions/Locations but at least you will be able to earn money until something better comes along.

Finally just to expand on what Morav and complexintentions have said.

There are 2 basic types of Expat jobs.

1. Fulltime Career. You join on a fulltime contract and in time you will be able to upgrade and/or switch fleets.
Example Emirates/Cathay Pacific/Gulf Carriers

2. Contract. You are hired for your expertise. Normally these are DEC positions but there are limited options for experienced F/O. Once enough local Pilots have been trained you are out. Normally you do not move between fleets or change seats. There are exceptions - some Airlines will move you onto other fleets and contracts are renewed for as long as you want to work at the Airline. The Contract World is a real snake pit. There are some extremely unscrupulous people in this Industry.

Welcome to my world (option 2 )!

I hope this is useful to you - it's a tough choice either way. Always remember the first (bold) point.

[Localizer]

Try accounting for the future as well .. The LCC rules are equal to Westjet today, what about tomorrow? The DC pension is fair today, what about tomorrow? After this contract battle the future doesn't have the same glow ..

If you're happy with your current situation and you can afford a good life for you and your family .. why move on? If you feel you'll have regret and disappointment if you don't pursue this course .. then go for it and hope for the best.

4 yrs of crap pay to live in Canada's most expensive cities can be a tough go. If you plan to commute, the cheapest commuting cost would be $220.00 per month based on 4 commutes at 300nm or less. (also factor in crash pad if required)

Good luck.

[Dockjock]

Great post Eric Janson

[pilotbzh]

Commuting from YOW to YYZ is 65$ round trip at least 4x total 260$/month plus occasional hotel in YYZ is 70$ taxes in... you can save commuting on WJ about 45$ round trip ...crash pads around 200-250 a month

[CAL]

this is all just so sad....a guy about to join a major flag carrier and he doesnt know if its the right move....how did we let this happen

[CanadianEh]

this is all just so sad....a guy about to join a major flag carrier and he doesnt know if its the right move....how did we let this happen

By showing up to a gun fight (negotiations) with a gun and the company showing up with an atom bomb (the f*cking Conservative gov't)

[BE20 Driver]

A friend recently told me that there were 3 no-shows in the last ground school. No call or email to explain. Maybe that would have made the difference in guys like me getting PFO'd or not. Who knows.

You're obviously not the only one struggling with the decision to go.

[yycflyguy]

FWIW, we presently have senior guys that are taking early retirement, low-middle seniority guys looking at overseas gigs and new hires that are not showing up to class. You're not the only one making a big decision.