hiring halter...

[altiplano]

Are all 170s at Sky Regional already? If so, is it why there is not a huge pile of courses planned for the fall despite these 4 777-300 coming in? I'm guessing the slight over-staff on the Embraers has been compensated by adding these wide-bodies..

No courses because no one is retiring and we just lost a bunch of airframes. Last word was courses resume in October... guess the next month or so will tell if calls start going out...

[Rumors]

Does anyone have any idea what the projected hiring requirements will be if there are no retirements for the next 5 years?

[snag]

In December 2012, Air Canada had 205 aircraft. It plans to have 206, including rouge, by December 2015. With no retirements the math on hiring is pretty simple.

As an aside, this will mean mainline shrinking to only 164 aircraft at that point. I think it's fair to assume mainline will not see a new pilot for a long time.

The sign on the interview door may say WestJet or Air Canada, but really, you'll be offered something far less for a while.

[rudder]

In December 2012, Air Canada had 205 aircraft. It plans to have 206, including rouge, by December 2015. With no retirements the math on hiring is pretty simple.

As an aside, this will mean mainline shrinking to only 164 aircraft at that point. I think it's fair to assume mainline will not see a new pilot for a long time.

The sign on the interview door may say WestJet or Air Canada, but really, you'll be offered something far less for a while.

The 205 to 206 migration includes EMB175's being removed and B777's being added. There is a massive difference in the crewing formulas for these aircraft due to daily utilization levels and augment crew requirements. The AC pilot seniority list will likely actually grow, albeit with nearly 25% of that list flying aircraft with ROUGE painted on the side.

[JLA]

In December 2012, Air Canada had 205 aircraft. It plans to have 206, including rouge, by December 2015. With no retirements the math on hiring is pretty simple.

As an aside, this will mean mainline shrinking to only 164 aircraft at that point. I think it's fair to assume mainline will not see a new pilot for a long time.

The sign on the interview door may say WestJet or Air Canada, but really, you'll be offered something far less for a while.

No the maths are far more complicated. As we speak, most of the 170 if not all of them are already at Sky Regional, right now AC is not hiring, with 197 fins according to canadian aircraft registry. AC is planning on welcoming 3-4 more 777 very soon before Feb 2014, and the 787 are scheduled to slowly arrive at the beginning of 2014. Around 37 787 are expected to join the fleet, the 8 A330 and a few 767 are expected to leave, that's still a fleet growth expectation of 20 Wide-Bodies. I don't know what are the specific crew requirements for those, but I assume it will require a fair bunch of drivers to operate them..

[scopiton]

Rousseau adds that the carrier will now expect six 787 aircraft deliveries in 2014 instead of seven as previously indicated.

there might be some fleet growth but that won't happen overnight. Six in 2014 if everything goes as planned.

[WhatThe?]

330's and 190's are staying until 2019, as per fleet update.

[JLA]

Is that fleet update an internal private document? Would be nice for people trying to get in to know what fleet predictions look like going forward !

[lawndart]

Is that fleet update an internal private document? Would be nice for people trying to get in to know what fleet predictions look like going forward !

Public information

http://www.aircanada.com/en/about/inves ... MDA_q2.pdf

Page 28.

[JLA]

Awesome! Exactly what I was looking for, thanks

[snag]

I still stand by my comment that you will not see a new hire at mainline for a long time. The new 777's were included in the last bid, still overstaffed on the emjI capts, will lose many more 319's to Rouge, 787's swap for 767's one for one, and minimal retirement. I wish I end up being wrong.

[hithere]

Where do you see 2019? The table on page 28 only goes to the end of 2015

[Fanblade]

Where do you see 2019? The table on page 28 only goes to the end of 2015

The quote looks like it is from the q2 conference call. The CFO giving some foreword looking info beyond the published fleet plan.

Speaking jobs wise and not fin count. Air Canada is shrinking. Air Canada Rouge is expanding. The combined total is shrinkage right now will break even sometime next year and will likely be a couple hundred higher by the end of 2015.

Retirements have almost stopped.

This is what i think. Short term there are going to be a series of down bids flushing/volunteering people to Rouge. Hiring will take a lull for possibly a year. Then pick up again to meet crewing requirements approaching 2015.

At some point in the next 4.5 years those retirements will kick back into the equation.

Who knows when. So in reality? Your guess is as good as anyone's.

[rudder]

Where do you see 2019? The table on page 28 only goes to the end of 2015

The quote looks like it is from the q2 conference call. The CFO giving some foreword looking info beyond the published fleet plan.

Nope. Nothing on the call that referred to the 330's or E190's.

[Fanblade]

Where do you see 2019? The table on page 28 only goes to the end of 2015

The quote looks like it is from the q2 conference call. The CFO giving some foreword looking info beyond the published fleet plan.

Nope. Nothing on the call that referred to the 330's or E190's.

To be honest I was guessing where it came from. Our CFO has been quoted regularly that he likes the 330. That it is not yet on the radar for replacement, with the always present caveat that a 2 type wide body fleet makes sense.

My read? Replaced later, rather than sooner.

[Slappy the Squirrel]

This is what i think. Short term there are going to be a series of down bids flushing/volunteering people to Rouge. Hiring will take a lull for possibly a year. Then pick up again to meet crewing requirements approaching 2015.

At some point in the next 4.5 years those retirements will kick back into the equation.

When you say a "lull", do you think they won't do any hiring at all for the next 12 months? And what about the guys and gals waiting in the pool right now?

[snag]

This bid showed 16 new hires required over the next year. The October bid will probably show a handful more, and so on. All depends when the company can fit a class in and the required sim slots are available. Could be the fall, could be late spring. Right now there's a lot of training for emj guys reducing to rouge.

[JLA]

Thanks Snag. So is the bid a flying hours projection 6-8 months in advance like The Stig said previously in this thread, or does it show the staffing requirements for the next 12 months? I'm confused as to how to interpret it. If this is for the next 12 months, then 16 vacancies is not a lot AT ALL!

[SilentMajority]

There is a pretty strong rumour regarding additional 777's (4-5) which will be announced before the end of the year. These are in addition to the 5 777's previously announced.

All part of CR's "Global Powerhouse" plan going forward.

How soon this will impact hiring is anyone's guess.....just not sure how the training dept. is going to cope with 2014/15 as it now stands....

[TheStig]

Thanks Snag. So is the bid a flying hours projection 6-8 months in advance like The Stig said previously in this thread, or does it show the staffing requirements for the next 12 months? I'm confused as to how to interpret it. If this is for the next 12 months, then 16 vacancies is not a lot AT ALL!

Think of the bids as a snapshot of where the airline see's itself in 6-8 months, so those 16 vacancies will be filled by roughly January 2013 not a year from now. The bids used to be run twice a year and projected flying/hiring requirements a year down the road, the airline now runs 6 per annum so they've shortened the lead time giving crew manning more flexibility and control. For example the first 787 is scheduled to enter service in March 2014 and the first positions on that aircraft are expected to be on the October 2013 bid.

All signs are pointing to a prolonged steady hiring wave starting this fall/winter.

[MB22]

Hey Stig

Got a question on your thoughts regarding 787. Might be a question that is impossible to tell but was more so out of curiosity. Someone posted earlier they don't think any new hires will see AC in the next few years, so is it fair to assume the 787 RP position will be staffed by people already at the company that are interested? I would assume when 1 767 gets replaced with 1 787 the RP would be forced off 767 and go onto 787? Or are there people who would specifically bid 787RP who might be an FO? I was just curious, since I'd imagine the 787 to be a popular airplane so just curious how popular it will be from an RP standpoint? Thanks for your thoughts.

and by 767 being replaced I mean being sent to rouge with no RP that is of course

[TheStig]

Hey Stig

Got a question on your thoughts regarding 787. Might be a question that is impossible to tell but was more so out of curiosity. Someone posted earlier they don't think any new hires will see AC in the next few years, so is it fair to assume the 787 RP position will be staffed by people already at the company that are interested? I would assume when 1 767 gets replaced with 1 787 the RP would be forced off 767 and go onto 787? Or are there people who would specifically bid 787RP who might be an FO? I was just curious, since I'd imagine the 787 to be a popular airplane so just curious how popular it will be from an RP standpoint? Thanks for your thoughts.

and by 767 being replaced I mean being sent to rouge with no RP that is of course

The idea is for everyone to move up the ladder as the airline grows and pilots retire, that said, the planned expansion of rouge is pretty aggressive and it will be interesting to see how things unfold. While I agree most new hires will have the option to bid for LCC positions, I wouldn't be surprised to see vacancies in the RP and mainline narrow body FO positions. Much like they were available for the previous 300 pilots hired (2010-2013) and the 700 before them (2005-2008). For what its worth on the past few bids there have been lots of pilots (FO's and Captains) who can hold mainline A320 positions who have bid to rouge.

[LK763]

All signs are pointing to a prolonged steady hiring wave starting this fall/winter.

Genuine question -
Fleet plan shows no real net gain in fins between AC and ACr combined. That with the lack of retirements, how do you figure there will be a steady hiring wave?

[Fanblade]

The idea is for everyone to move up the ladder as the airline grows and pilots retire, that said, the planned expansion of rouge is pretty aggressive and it will be interesting to see how things unfold.

Stig,

Go read RA's newsletter just before bid 13-03. Under Staffing update. It is a complete about face. All 777 positions are bid. 787 will replace 767. 319's start trasnsfering at a rate of about 2 a month in October.

Retirements have stopped and the plan was based on attrition. There is no place for people to move up to as the 319's get transfered. We have had two downbids since the newsletter. Expect them to continue until Rouge is fully staffed.

There is no appreciable growth in AC's plan. Yes there is some but not a lot. Hiring was based on retirements not growth. 150 ish a year. 450 over three was what was supposed to have left room for people to move up and avoid reductions to Rouge.

Retirements are not happening and the situation was compounded by transferring 150ish jobs to SR.

[TheStig]

All signs are pointing to a prolonged steady hiring wave starting this fall/winter.

Genuine question -
Fleet plan shows no real net gain in fins between AC and ACr combined. That with the lack of retirements, how do you figure there will be a steady hiring wave?

Good question, so I crunched some numbers. There isn't much growth in overall aircraft numbers, but AC is trading apples for watermelons. An EMJ requires about 10-12 pilots per aircraft, whereas a 777 requires 25-28, the 787 should fall somewhere in between the staffing levels of the 767 and 777.

Stig,

Go read RA's newsletter just before bid 13-03. Under Staffing update. It is a complete about face. All 777 positions are bid. 787 will replace 767. 319's start trasnsfering at a rate of about 2 a month in October.

Retirements have stopped and the plan was based on attrition. There is no place for people to move up to as the 319's get transfered. We have had two downbids since the newsletter. Expect them to continue until Rouge is fully staffed.

There is no appreciable growth in AC's plan. Yes there is some but not a lot. Hiring was based on retirements not growth. 150 ish a year. 450 over three was what was supposed to have left room for people to move up and avoid reductions to Rouge.

Retirements are not happening and the situation was compounded by transferring 150ish jobs to SR.

I agree the lack of retirements and transfer on the E175's has been a blow to upward movement and hiring for the last 2 bids, and likely the next one. However, retirements haven't stopped, albeit 20-30/year isn't many. Secondly about 120 EMJ positions have already been removed from the latest bid (dating back to pre-E175 transfer numbers. There has been a lot of uncertainty with respect to retirement, it will be interesting to see if retirements increase once the moratorium is in place.

Looking at the bids, all 23 B777 positions were filled earlier this year, and the company still has about 40 EMJ Captain positions heavy in YYZ. The October bid will be mostly flat from the EMJ CA position down as pilots fill B787 CA/FO positions, moving forward however, I stand by my assertion that the total number of pilots required (AC + ACr combined) from Bid 13-06 onwards will grow as B787's are brought into the fleet.

Like yourself, I'm not happy about the EMJ transfer or lack of retirements, things should have been much rosier but they aren't all doom and gloom either, to the best of my (limited) knowledge, I'm simply just trying to paint an accurate picture for those curious about where AC hiring stands at this point moving forward. Like everyone else posting here, consider my posts to be every bit of a wild-ass-guess as they next if you disagree.