Windsor Flying Club 172 down in Nashville.

[DanWEC]

I remember that. Whew, hard to beleive a guy would skip the country for a couple mischief charges.

Guy robbed a bank or two in the 90's as well.

[captcrunch2013]

EDITED for relevance

[pdw]

New article on the Windsor Star's website.

http://blogs.windsorstar.com/2013/10/30 ... ee-island/

No landing in CYPT, yet the flightplan was closed, and the plane then crashes on runway 2 in KBNA after 2am, at least five hours later, which includes 4 hours of flying.

Some way was found to be anonymous in crossing the border (if indeed customs was avoided) ... and right down to and including the communications at Nashville. Then Nashville would have been talking to a different plane ?

The only way that could be possible ... would be communicating with an active US-registration once across Lake Erie. The Canadian registration was obviously retired at Pelee for the night in cancelling that YQG-YPT plan with London ... but then continuing on south of the border, after about the middle of the Lake over those Island airports there ... even reactivating a US flight plan there in similar manner (from the air) ... then communicating as needed the rest of the way. How else could that have been done ?

[cdnpilot77]

So PDW, case closed? No need to investigate if this was the ONLY possible way?

[pdw]

I guess not ... once the actual sequence of events is fully investigated it'll still be something very unusual.

[cdnpilot77]

There's no doubt about that! I'm sure the US DHS will be watching very closely too. They will want to find where the holes in their system were. It was a 172 this day, but the next time?

[hotdog1]

maybe the pilot had a hand radio and did close the filght plan, or report clear of the runway and all the stuff neccessary to have the tower and ground control think everything was normal.

[flyinthebug]

The only way that could be possible ... would be communicating with an active US-registration once across Lake Erie. The Canadian registration was obviously retired at Pelee for the night in cancelling that YQG-YPT plan with London ... but then continuing on south of the border, after about the middle of the Lake over those Island airports there ... even reactivating a US flight plan there in similar manner (from the air) ... then communicating as needed the rest of the way. How else could that have been done ?

Really pdw? OR maybe he shut off his transponder and looked like a goose flying south to ATC. What makes you so certain he communicated the "rest of the way"? A 172 with no transponder looks like nothing more than a bird (target with no altitude, airspeed, or other info available) to ATC, so how he got where he went is not really that big of a mystery. WHY he did it is the question.

[pdw]

The article eludes to the idea that these type of flight plans were going on for a while already, ... so yeah ... it's possible a hole in the system was found (for a signature 'method of operation') that was then exploited with some apparent success for a certain period of time; who knows for sure at this point. Getting caught would have something to with a breakdown in the surety of the plan ... of having been 'on a roll' for a length of time, then suddenly that fog was just a bit thicker than expected.

[pdw]

What makes you so certain he communicated the "rest of the way"?

If he needed to he would have .... yet wouldn't it be suspicious, to be an uncommunicative radar target for four hours straight ?

It would be quite something ... if it really was that simple, ... turn off transponder etc (if that's all it took for him to be undetected).

[flyinthebug]

What makes you so certain he communicated the "rest of the way"?

If he needed to he would have .... yet wouldn't it be supicious, to be an uncommunicative radar target for four hours straight ?

That's what im trying to say pdw. He wouldn't have been a "target" as there would be no information coming from his aircraft to ATC other than a small blip on their radar. He would have been a non event to any ATC watching their screen. Again, with the transponder off, he would not have raised a single eyebrow by not communicating, as they would presume he was a bird or even a flock of birds. If you get a chance to go into a tower sometime, ask them to show you what a bird looks like on their screen...and then you`ll understand.

[pdw]

Flyinthebug, I'd thought at least in the control zones they had your shape visible regardless of the transponder ....

At the time this 172 approached on rwy 2 KBNA there is also the remote chance that the tail end of the "2AM runway sweep" (see Windsor Star article link above) was still in progress ... so that by not using the landing lights it disabled any vehicle drivers on those runways from seeing an idling/decelerating plane, nor hearing it lose control in the fog ... just by chance while avoiding one of them (photos show the wreckage trail going well off to the side into the grass).

The runway sweep would be an authorized operation during that time, and if not using any communication would mean that an unauthorized Cessna was very vulnerable in the fog to meeting any sweep vehicles during that hour, esp when not knowing they were there.

[GUMPS]

This second page is just as screwed up as the accident itself. Personally I think variable tailwinds pushed him all the way to Nashville into the fog...

[rookieatc]

Really pdw? OR maybe he shut off his transponder and looked like a goose flying south to ATC. What makes you so certain he communicated the "rest of the way"? A 172 with no transponder looks like nothing more than a bird (target with no altitude, airspeed, or other info available) to ATC, so how he got where he went is not really that big of a mystery. WHY he did it is the question.

You can absolutely tell the difference between a flock of geese and an actual aircraft. The primary radar return's we get do include ground speed on them, not altitude though. Birds usually pop in and out of radar as well, they don't leave consistent history trails and their tracks usually don't travel in much of a straight line. Not to mention this time of year most people have their primary radar feed sensitivity turned down quite a bit to remove as much bird activity otherwise the screen would be a purple mess. So, all that being said it's pretty easy to distinguish a 172 grounding 110 knots vs a bunch of birds.

[flyinthebug]

Really pdw? OR maybe he shut off his transponder and looked like a goose flying south to ATC. What makes you so certain he communicated the "rest of the way"? A 172 with no transponder looks like nothing more than a bird (target with no altitude, airspeed, or other info available) to ATC, so how he got where he went is not really that big of a mystery. WHY he did it is the question.

You can absolutely tell the difference between a flock of geese and an actual aircraft. The primary radar return's we get do include ground speed on them, not altitude though. Birds usually pop in and out of radar as well, they don't leave consistent history trails and their tracks usually don't travel in much of a straight line. Not to mention this time of year most people have their primary radar feed sensitivity turned down quite a bit to remove as much bird activity otherwise the screen would be a purple mess. So, all that being said it's pretty easy to distinguish a 172 grounding 110 knots vs a bunch of birds.

Well you learn something new everyday. It maybe time for me to get up in a tower again and see what ive missed? Back in 1995 or so I went up for a tour of the tower at YQT. I was looking at the screen and asked what is this? He said that's either a bird or a small aircraft with its transponder off. I enquired further of course and then he got on the radio to one of the schools 172s doing circuits. He requested them to turn off their transponder so he could so some quick training. When they turned it off, he lost altitude, airspeed, and all other readings...and then pointed out to us that the 172 looked exactly the same to them as the bird hes pointed out 5 NM north of the field. I always believed that once the transponder was off...that ATC could not get any information? Thanks for the education.

Besides, after reading GUMPs post, I tend to believe that's what happened any way

Fly safe all.

PS... rookieatc... Could you answer the question though if this aircraft would raise an eyebrow to ATC if they saw it passing outside their control zone? Or would they have blown it off as a homebuilt or something flying without a transponder? Would it have set off alarm bells for you personally?

[vrrotate]

So here is my version. I expect that he was obviously trying to fly down to that area incognito but to some other airport maybe in the vicinity of Nashville's KBNA. Certainly looks like he's done it before if he usually does this "flight to Pelee Island". Except this time the usual airport he would go to is fogged right in. No way he can get in. No ILS etc. Decides to head over to KBNA because he knows there is an ILS and the lights will be on etc. Transponder has been off since leaving Ontario or even Windsor for that matter. Not making any calls on the radio. Tries to fly an ILS to get down but messes it up and piles it in. All the while ATC sees his primary on radar but what can they do? It's the middle of the night and there is no radio communication and they can't see anything in the fog anyway. Now only to figure out why he was going down there...

[DanWEC]

This is what I've been thinking Vrrotate, and seems to answer most of the questions. Likely been smuggling and it went wrong, divert to KBNA. He would have had to make up a hell of a story as to why he was there and needed fuel.
Still though, it amazing it is even possible without interception/detection.

Guy is a career criminal. Good on the board at WFC for discussing his membership application, giving him the benefit of the doubt because he appears to simply love flying. Too bad it bit them in the ass though.

[Rowdy]

What makes you so certain he communicated the "rest of the way"?

If he needed to he would have .... yet wouldn't it be supicious, to be an uncommunicative radar target for four hours straight ?

That's what im trying to say pdw. He wouldn't have been a "target" as there would be no information coming from his aircraft to ATC other than a small blip on their radar. He would have been a non event to any ATC watching their screen. Again, with the transponder off, he would not have raised a single eyebrow by not communicating, as they would presume he was a bird or even a flock of birds. If you get a chance to go into a tower sometime, ask them to show you what a bird looks like on their screen...and then you`ll understand.

Hang on a sec here.. you're trying to inform us of 'fact' about ATC and radar, when you've been up in a tower once in YQT 18 years ago? Sounds almost as fishy as the other opinions here on what happened. Sorry for busting you balls a bit, but it just seems like your opinions are coming on stronger and stronger lately.

There are many ways to cross the 49th and do so unbeknownst to radar or ATC, or to look quite 'routine'. Perhaps that is what happened. Pretty hard for a 110kt 172 to look like a flock of birds on radar, but easy to get missed as a routine flight or with a different call sign etc.

Lots of weird happenings lately. Or are we just construing them that way.

[photofly]

I wonder what the airframe insurance position is.

[flyinthebug]

Hang on a sec here.. you're trying to inform us of 'fact' about ATC and radar, when you've been up in a tower once in YQT 18 years ago? Sounds almost as fishy as the other opinions here on what happened. Sorry for busting you balls a bit, but it just seems like your opinions are coming on stronger and stronger lately.

There are many ways to cross the 49th and do so unbeknownst to radar or ATC, or to look quite 'routine'. Perhaps that is what happened. Pretty hard for a 110kt 172 to look like a flock of birds on radar, but easy to get missed as a routine flight or with a different call sign etc.

Lots of weird happenings lately. Or are we just construing them that way.

You are right Rowdy, sorry bud. I should have done some research about the topic before I spoke up like an expert. I do apologize.

I honestly do believe I remember that controller showing me how he lost all the AS, Alt, and GS when they turned off the transponder...but obviously he only lost Alt. When I`m wrong, I`m wrong. Making an ass of myself is punishment enough...and that was just accomplished by my own words.

Hope all is well with you Rowdy!
Fly safe all.

[Doc]

I wonder what the airframe insurance position is.

Kind of, the least of their worries?

[photofly]

I wonder what the airframe insurance position is.

Kind of, the least of their worries?

I guess it depends. To some extent human sympathy derives from how easily we can picture ourselves in the same situation and suffering the same fate. A rental pilot on a long cross country ends up in a disaster - we can all appreciate that. But if it turns out someone was making regular secret smuggling trips across an international border, one of which ended badly because the pilot was trying to avoid detection - and granted that's a very big "if" - then I'm left wondering who's paying for the airframe.

[RatherBeFlying]

So maybe he flew low across the border with the transponder off, staying quiet on the radio and low airspeed. He could then simulate a takeoff from a US airport just across the border with the transponder on 1200 and stay clear of controlled airspace without talking to anyone. Or just leave the transponder off.

Being over the lake, you'd think radar at Cleveland or Detroit would pick up a primary return. DHS will be working to plug that hole.

If he was doing smuggling runs, he'd have to do something to account for some serious time discrepancies in the meters -- or disconnect them.

[pdw]

If it's insured for the US too, it's probably a matter of sitting back and just taking a close look at the fine print on the policy. It's likely covered as usual, but what's also true (as stated above) is that the hull insurance could well be the least of the expense now, since all emergency activity must be paid for.

If the trip is managed so secretly, there is no information available as an owner to know about anything illegal ... esp if on previous rentals the plane was always returned properly. Even flight-aware doesn't have every flight, ... apparently there's some way to avoid a record even on a plan.

Thanks to Fyinthebug and Everyone for helping clear up the truths and myths about radar and transponders (and GUMPS for checking WX)

[pdw]

... he'd have to do something to account for some serious time discrepancies in the meters -- or disconnect them.

Does turning the Master OFF not shut everything down except the engine ?