Malaysia Airlines 777 - Missing

[ahramin]

This aircraft was ADS-B equipped, but ADS-B still needs to be within LOS of a ground station, therefore no help in cases like these.

[Airmanship Police]

I know this is politically incorrect and anti-Canadian to say this but: I have the bad feeling that some guys who like to play in the sand box will be behind this.

[boeingboy]

I have the bad feeling that some guys who like to play in the sand box will be behind this.

To what end?

I'm certainly not discounting the possibility of terrorism - but look at the bigger picture. Terrorists do things to make a statement. They want a big show and for the world to know they mean business.

1) Malaysia has no enemies - they have not really been targeted by the big players and they have no internal terrorists trying to oust the government and such.
2) The plane disappeared over the ocean. It wasn't crashed into a city or buildings. Kind of a quiet place.
3) No VIP's to be targeted.
4) Not really a highly important routing.

I would think that if terrorists were involved they would have picked either an airline representing a hated or targeted country - such as an American airline or maybe something like the Air India bombings, or they would have made a splash like the 9/11 crashes.

Remember - when Air France 447 disappeared, almost everyone assumed it had to be terrorism.

Mind you - any of the other possibilities seem just as unlikely (structural failure, design flaw, etc...).....except that there have been a lot of crashes lately that have ended up being some kind of pilot error. At least the ocean is somewhat shallow - so that holds good hope that the boxes can be located and recovered fairly easily.

[B52]

The probability of a terrorism cause is rapidly rising.
Take a look at where it disappeared.

Hopefully they will have photos of the two individuals using
stolen passports.

[Changes in Latitudes]

.
Take a look at where it disappeared.

Hopefully they will have photos of the two individuals using
stolen passports.

I hadn't drawn any terrorism thoughts based on the location alone, although I haven't spent an extended amount of time in that part of the planet. What gives you that impression?

[xysn]

If it were terrorism I would have thought that some terror group would be claiming responsibility by now. Bringing down a plane isn't really a lone wolf project. Or is it?

Then again the two stolen passports seems strange.

[cncpc]

How the hell can you use a stolen passport in this modern world? Isn't there some central system tracking this type of thing?

If it was terrorists, they must have looked like a 30 year old Austrian or a 37 year old Italian.

But, what are the chances of any plane carrying one, let alone two, people using stolen passports?

[azimuthaviation]

I know this is politically incorrect and anti-Canadian to say this but: I have the bad feeling that some guys who like to play in the sand box will be behind this.

Its really never too early to blame the Arabs, in fact it might be better to err on the side of caution.

Oddly enough if there was sabotage involved the exact same thing happened on a Malaysian Airlines flight almost 40 years ago.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_A ... Flight_653

At approximately 19:54 hours, while at an altitude of 4,000 feet over Batu Arang and descending toward Subang's Runway 33, the crew reported to Subang Tower that an "unidentified hijacker" was on board. The tower immediately notified the authorities, who made emergency preparations at the airport.
A few minutes later, however, the crew radioed: "We're now proceeding to Singapore..." but Flight 653 never arrived there.
At 20:15 hours, all communication with the aircraft was lost.
At 20:36 hours, the residents of Kampong Ladang, Tanjong Kupang in Johor reported hearing explosions and seeing burning wreckage in a swamp. The wreckage was later identified as the aircraft; it had hit the ground at a near-vertical angle at a very high speed. There were no survivors and not one recognizable body was found.

Some speculate that the Japanese Red Army was responsible for the hijacking, although no further evidence to support this hypothesis has come forward.

[Eric Janson]

I know this is politically incorrect and anti-Canadian to say this but: I have the bad feeling that some guys who like to play in the sand box will be behind this.

Its really never too early to blame the Arabs, in fact it might be better to err on the side of caution.

These comments have to be amongst the most stupid I have ever read on this site.

So far we have very few facts and loads of useless speculation.

[thirdtimecharm]

Interesting...

http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/pi ... 2F7.576448

[tangomike]

In reference to the "useless speculation" comment above I'd like to chime in to say that most speculation that I read on Avcanada is not useless, even when based on few facts. When this type of tragedy happens, I am not alone in keeping a close eye on Avcanada to see what those in the industry are saying. Speculation leads to discussion, which at the end of the day is good for the industry.

Generally the theories presented here regarding any accident are reasonable even when there are few facts. Nobody is suggesting that aliens did it. What we know so far about this accident does suggest a very sudden end to the flight. It has also been reported that 2 people were on the plane posing as someone else with stolen passports. So if some contributors suggest terrorism, others could certainly present a counterargument but nobody should be flamed for voicing a reasonable theory. Don't mean to pick on a particular contributor, just find that every time there is an accident someone yells that we need to stop speculating until all the facts are in.

The members and readers of Avcanada could turn elsewhere for the news, we are here to hear the thoughts of others in the industry. Keep putting in your $.02 worth people!

[GRK]

"Blame the Arabs?" Are you effing kidding me? Wow…go back under the rock you've been hiding under, or stop watching FOX news…Shame on you!

[Eric Janson]

Then again the two stolen passports seems strange.

Not really - people smuggling is big business in that part of the world. Highly organised and far more lucrative than drugs or weapons.

I've had someone on my flight before with a false passport. Zero threat to the safety of the flight.

Drug mules/criminals would be another possibility given the region.

I'd be very surprised if this is related to the missing aircraft.

[complexintentions]

The passenger manifest issued by the airline included the names of two Europeans - Austrian Christian Kozel and Italian Luigi Maraldi - who, according to their foreign ministries, were not on the plane. Both had apparently had their passports stolen in Thailand during the past two years.

The BBC reported that the men using their passports had purchased tickets together and were flying on to Europe from Beijing, meaning they did not have to apply for a Chinese visa and undergo further checks.

TWO people purchasing tickets together with stolen passports strengthens the terrorist theory, to my mind. I would think that doubling the risk of detection at an airport would be undesirable to a smuggler? Combined with the fact that authorities are also looking into the identities of two other passengers would seem to suggest something more like a team, which does start to sound more like the M.O. of the more radical elements of The Religion Of Peace. Which very much IS a factor in the region.

The fact that there was no Mayday doesn't dampen my own suspicions either. I can't really think of a reason of why there would be no radio call beyond a. something happening too suddenly and catastrophically, or b. someone preventing a call from being made.

After operating it for over 5,000 hours I have pretty much total faith in the actual aircraft. And aside from dumbasses flying it into the ground, the B777 has the record to back up my opinion. I'd be very surprised to learn that this accident - if it is ever confirmed as such - was due to something OTHER than deliberate sabotage. We'll see.

[Colonel Sanders]

most speculation that I read on Avcanada is not useless

Sorta tangential: when there are accidents, there
are AvCan "crossing guards", as I think of them, who
try to squelch any discussion and primly tell us to wait
for the magical accident report, which they inform us,
will "tell all". After many, many years of negotiating.

Well, a lot of the time, the accident report is completely
uninformative. The PC-12 accident near Ottawa and
the 172 4-fatal spin near Waterloo come to mind. Etc.

Now, the AvCan "crossing guards" know this. They
aren't stupid. What they're trying to do, is get rid of
any public discussion - for their own benefit.

If they wanted to, they could just not read the thread.
But despite what they say, that's not their objective.
They don't want other people reading about it.

[Gravol]

most speculation that I read on Avcanada is not useless

Sorta tangential: when there are accidents, there
are AvCan "crossing guards", as I think of them, who
try to squelch any discussion and primly tell us to wait
for the magical accident report, which they inform us,
will "tell all". After many, many years of negotiating.

Well, a lot of the time, the accident report is completely
uninformative. The PC-12 accident near Ottawa and
the 172 4-fatal spin near Waterloo come to mind. Etc.

Now, the AvCan "crossing guards" know this. They
aren't stupid. What they're trying to do, is get rid of
any public discussion - for their own benefit.

If they wanted to, they could just not read the thread.
But despite what they say, that's not their objective.
They don't want other people reading about it.

So blame the arabs ?

[albertdesalvo]

Here is something that was posted in another well known aviation forum. I found it interesting:

Having flown that route many times myself, (and in a 777, not that that has anything to do with it), I'd be very surprised to find there were not quite a large number of eye (or at least ear) witnesses to the aircraft hitting the sea. The number of fishing boats in those waters beggars belief. Overflying that area at night, there are so many fishing boats, each with a light, you could be forgiven for thinking you were overflying a huge city.

If I'm correct, it will probably be a day or two before any such eye/ear witnesses return to port.

[CID]

They don't want other people reading about it.

Yep. Reminds me of a recent post of mine. Never mind speculation. Why would someone suppress factual information?

[cgzro]

.Having flown that route many times myself, (and in a 777, not that that has anything to do with it), I'd be very surprised to find there were not quite a large number of eye (or at least ear) witnesses to the aircraft hitting the sea. The number of fishing boats in those waters beggars belief. Overflying that area at night, there are so many fishing boats, each with a light, you could be forgiven for thinking you were overflying a huge city.

Ive flown as a passenger a few times into Singapore from Hong Kong and the above statement is true. i remember being confused because flight aware was showing us over the ocean but there were clearly dozens of cities lit up below. I guess that at night the boats group together. As the author above says its a spectacular sight and likely there will be eye witness reports.

[Liquid Charlie]

I'm sure this has got Boeing going "oh Fukk" and remember TWA 800 -- this aeroplane stopped flying suddenly -- 2 separate oil slicks -- could be impact of separated main components such wing(s) and fuselage -- so now we think -- structural failure and what caused it -- bomb, CAT, airframe failure, mad man with a gun -- without the recorders this will be a difficult one -- if there are eye witnesses all they will be able to identify if there was a breakup or not -- the cause may never be known and either the authorities are sitting on any terrorist claim (which is difficult with the internet) -- if not pretty much rules out a terrorist group -- could still be a crazy suicidal person - mystery of the year developing --