Closing YXD proves to be the right move again

[ea306]

When the flights do go to YEG, look for the crews at Starbucks in W.E. mall

The crews will be using our highly efficient, LRT and bus system to get to west ed?

Might as well go to starbucks in Leduc and save the 45 min drive .... errr longer on the bus.

Perhaps....if they layover in Leduc.

Sunwing crews layover in Leduc for short stays....otherwise we do the long trek into downtown and layover there. So one day it's not improbable that you will see KLM Crews at the West Ed Mall... What else is there to do in Edmonton in the winter to kill time on a layover?

[Cessna driver]

When the flights do go to YEG, look for the crews at Starbucks in W.E. mall

The crews will be using our highly efficient, LRT and bus system to get to west ed?

Might as well go to starbucks in Leduc and save the 45 min drive .... errr longer on the bus.

Perhaps....if they layover in Leduc.

Sunwing crews layover in Leduc for short stays....otherwise we do the long trek into downtown and layover there. So one day it's not improbable that you will see KLM Crews at the West Ed Mall... What else is there to do in Edmonton in the winter to kill time on a layover?

Well theres the useless dinosaur $hit balls on whitemud, or the ugly looking art museum, or drive around spotting all the photo radar vehicles trying to take mug shots when traffic will be backed up and crawling along,

[complexintentions]

I reiterate, I find the timing of increased service to Alberta to be all wrong - especially since AMS-YEG isn't proposed until next year. Every single economic sign says batten down the hatches. Does no one else follow economic news? Canada has been reduced to being a one-trick pony: resource extraction. It has been reduced to having any new, well-paying jobs associated with the same, predominantly in one province. If oil plunges further and stays there, it will be a rough several years, or longer.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e21079270/

Prices like these would be a disaster for Canadian oil sands oil, which needs a much higher price than regular crude to be profitable. My own feeling is that the Canadian economy is about to get crushed. When the inevitable layoffs come in the oil industry, I wouldn't be surprised if it triggers the long-overdue real estate correction.

But hey, keep speculating on where KLM crews will spend their time!

[squash junky]

But hey, keep speculating on where KLM crews will spend their time!

It's not a speculation

[leftoftrack]

I reiterate, I find the timing of increased service to Alberta to be all wrong - especially since AMS-YEG isn't proposed until next year. Every single economic sign says batten down the hatches. Does no one else follow economic news? Canada has been reduced to being a one-trick pony: resource extraction. It has been reduced to having any new, well-paying jobs associated with the same, predominantly in one province. If oil plunges further and stays there, it will be a rough several years, or longer.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e21079270/

Prices like these would be a disaster for Canadian oil sands oil, which needs a much higher price than regular crude to be profitable. My own feeling is that the Canadian economy is about to get crushed. When the inevitable layoffs come in the oil industry, I wouldn't be surprised if it triggers the long-overdue real estate correction.

But hey, keep speculating on where KLM crews will spend their time!

Alberta is never going to crash oil prices only going up same with real estate

[azimuthaviation]

Alberta is never going to crash oil prices only going up same with real estate

Alberta is set up nicely to be another Detroit. A huge overpaid and undereducated workforce with only one primary skill relying on one major product for its sustenance. People still buy cars, but how much is real estate in Detroit worth? A nice fixer upper 1200 square foot bungalow for $1100?

That being said, the dip in oil prices is not due to oversupply or lack of demand due to economic concerns but rather deliberately being driven down for political reasons. Reasons that have nothing to do with Alberta. Only when oil drops below $60 a barrel will any significant slowdown in the Alberta economy take place. You might only see a slowdown in the growth of the oilfield sector in Alberta, as well as the real estate market but by no means will you see a contraction in property values or economy. If oil production increased tenfold, it would all find a market with only marginal decrease in the price of a barrel.

[leftoftrack]

Alberta is never going to crash oil prices only going up same with real estate

Alberta is set up nicely to be another Detroit. A huge overpaid and undereducated workforce with only one primary skill relying on one major product for its sustenance. People still buy cars, but how much is real estate in Detroit worth? A nice fixer upper 1200 square foot bungalow for $1100?

That being said, the dip in oil prices is not due to oversupply or lack of demand due to economic concerns but rather deliberately being driven down for political reasons. Reasons that have nothing to do with Alberta. Only when oil drops below $60 a barrel will any significant slowdown in the Alberta economy take place. You might only see a slowdown in the growth of the oilfield sector in Alberta, as well as the real estate market but by no means will you see a contraction in property values or economy. If oil production increased tenfold, it would all find a market with only marginal decrease in the price of a barrel.

You can't produce alberta oil anywhere but alberta. Detroit is Detroit cause they don't manufacture anything anymore. As well cyyc has the largest collection of head offices per capita in Canada. You don't think that every albertan is out standing beside a drill pipe covered in oil do you?

[iflyforpie]

Lots of people in Alberta paid dearly the last time the West played with oil prices to try and bankrupt the USSR.

You can't produce alberta oil anywhere but alberta.

So what? The only reason why Alberta oil is even viable on the scale we've seen to begin with was because of the high crude prices starting in 2003 from a combination of the Iraq war and Hugo Chavez putting the brakes on OPEC because he was pissed off at America. Alberta's oil is costly to extract and cannot easily be shipped to market... which makes it one of the most vulnerable of all to low crude prices.

You don't think that every albertan is out standing beside a drill pipe covered in oil do you?

Perhaps not... but a lot of Albertans depend on a revenue stream that originates in energy. Realtors and developers, construction companies, retail stores, dealerships, etc etc. Just look at aviation.... how much would that be cut back in Alberta if there was a sudden oil glut? Just look at how many airports are around Ft Mac alone.

[leftoftrack]

I think we're getting distracted from the fact that other than LH and AF CYEG now has direct access to all of Europe's major hubs.

[iflyforpie]

Which has absolutely nothing to do with the title of this thread....

[leftoftrack]

Which has absolutely nothing to do with the title of this thread....

Sure it does, since the closure of cyxd development around yeg has taken off while the EIA has been landing new destinations. Now there are just a few more airlines need to attract before having all of Europe covered and thus no reason to fly to yyc

[azimuthaviation]

You don't think that every albertan is out standing beside a drill pipe covered in oil do you?

No, but its a primary industry, THE primary industry. Like I said, if the oil sector were to disappear, Alberta would turn into Detroit. The Alberta economy is artificially inflated from oil. In Alberta, an IQ of 85, the ability to read and write at a grade six level and a willingness to go to work, will guarantee you an upper middle class lifestyle. Just like Detroit for most of the last century. But nowhere else will you get paid 40 dollars an hour for a simple repetitive task or simple trade. Kind of like the teach a man to fish vs giving a man of fish. But Alberta is not running out of fish to give. The oil sector is safe, it is resilient. It has taken hits, devastating hit in the early 80's, another big slump in the late 90's, again in 2008. It always rebounded because there will be a market for fossil fuels for the foreseeable future (given the slow rate in the development of alternative solutions)

Alberta's oil is costly to extract and cannot easily be shipped to market...

True. However the existing infrastructure, political support and a large pool of intellectual and skilled labour in Alberta is a huge benefit here. (By comparison, it takes about 76 wells in Alberta to producer the same amount of oil as one well in Saudi)

Which has absolutely nothing to do with the title of this thread....

True again. EAA are not genius business tacticians whose foresight and prowess is leading to success. They just happen to be in an era with growing population and growing demand that is leading to some success despite their bad management.

What happened with the direct AC flight to London last year? And are they still down to one runway?

[azimuthaviation]

since the closure of cyxd development around yeg has taken off while the EIA has been landing new destinations.

You see a correlation in these unrelated events? All this happened around the same time Mayor Iveson took over. Actually all this development started around the time Carl's Jr opened up. Are you going to credit them for the successes?

[Beefitarian]

since the closure of cyxd development around yeg has taken off while the EIA has been landing new destinations.

Actually all this development started around the time Carl's Jr opened up. Are you going to credit them for the successes?

You should give up left, he's got you. The Famous star is fantastic!

[complexintentions]

Only when oil drops below $60 a barrel will any significant slowdown in the Alberta economy take place. You might only see a slowdown in the growth of the oilfield sector in Alberta, as well as the real estate market but by no means will you see a contraction in property values or economy. If oil production increased tenfold, it would all find a market with only marginal decrease in the price of a barrel.

Could you please post links to substantiate the $60 figure? When the price of any commodity drops dramatically, it affects ALL producers of that commodity, irrelevant of price. Particularly the least efficient, least cost-effective, highest-cost lowest-margin producers of that commodity - which are Alberta oil sands. I would submit that a 20% drop in WTI qualifies as more than a price "dip".

It is patently false to state that "by no means will you see a contraction in property values or economy". If the oil price trend continues for any length of time, it will absolutely impact. Surely SOME on this forum lived through the 70's, 80', 90's? Alberta has heard this tune over and over. Companies don't gamble billions of dollars on new projects, and they would shut down planned expansion in a heartbeat. How can you possibly say that wouldn't affect the economy? Of which, in Canada, fully 25% is now derived from the real estate market and related FIRE industries. So yes, real estate would be affected. Unless of course, you think that doublewide in Ft. Mac is really worth $500,000? Or that 40 year old, outdated bungalow in YEG is worth $650,000 on its own merits?

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/S ... story.html

Sorry, but losing 1.2 billion in revenue is not trivial. And that's in the "HAVE" province.

That being said, the dip in oil prices is not due to oversupply or lack of demand due to economic concerns but rather deliberately being driven down for political reasons.

Um, no - actually the price collapse is due exactly to the reasons you say it isn't: a glut of new supply coming online (i.e. US shale) at exactly the same time pretty much every economy in the world (besides the US) js contracting sharply, reducing demand. Yes, it will eventually pick up again - it's a finite resource in a world with exponential population growth, and we're all addicted to oil. That's why I said "in the short to near term". But even a few years, heck one year, of low prices would be devastating to many/most in Canada, with its lack of a diverse economy, and where most live from one paycheque to the next carrying massive debt loads between mortgages and consumer debt.

And a concentration of head offices won't save Calgary. They're there for the lower taxes, but in the end as iflyforpie pointed out, most revenue in Alberta derives directly or indirectly from energy.

"You're Poorer Than You Think!"

[complexintentions]

Well, not to beat a dead horse but I just found this new story that pretty much says exactly what I just stated. And no, I didn't see this story when I wrote my comments. But see what I mean about it not being about a certain price per barrel?

The world looks much different from the days since multibillion-dollar pipeline projects such as Northern Gateway and Keystone XL were first proposed. Both Brent and WTI are trading below $100 a barrel and it won’t be long before they fall below $80. If you doubt that outlook just note what Saudi Aramco did earlier this month. Instead of cutting back production by several million barrels a day to support prices like they did in 2008 and 2009, the Saudis instead chose to protect their market share by slashing prices.

For those wondering about the future direction of oil prices, the behaviour of the world’s most important oil supplier and lead member of OPEC is instructive. Saudi Aramco has now cut all of its export prices, reducing prices to Asian markets to their lowest levels since the 2008 recession.

It’s not hard to figure out where this is going for oil sands producers. When commodity prices fall, whether it’s coal, iron ore, copper or otherwise, the effect on supply is the same. Falling prices hit high-cost producers first and hardest. Guess what’s happening in the oil sands right now?

In the last several months alone we’ve seen two major announcements of shelved or cancelled projects. Total SA is walking away from its Pierre River project, while Norway’s Statoil is doing the same from the Joslyn mine. In light of the current outlook for oil prices, such decisions aren’t a surprise.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e21085820/

At the root of today’s problem is global demand that is no longer growing quickly enough to support the prices necessary to keep expanding expensive unconventional sources of supply such as the oil sands. Lower prices will effectively strand those reserves regardless of the transportation options that may become available. Even if President Obama approved Keystone XL or the National Energy Board gave the green light to Energy East, falling commodity prices mean that soon there might not be enough oil flowing out of northern Alberta to fill those new pipelines.

Alberta - the one bright light in the Canadian economy - is about to go from boom to bust. Again. Kind of puts service to AMS in perspective.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar drops below 89 cents. Sweet, another 1% raise.

[azimuthaviation]

Could you please post links to substantiate the $60 figure?

http://www.ceri.ca/images/stories/2013- ... 2-2046.pdf

The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) further refined the numbers and estimated that in 2012 the average plant gate costs (including 10% profit margin) of primary recovery was $30.32/bbl, of SAGD was $47.57/bbl, of mining and upgrading was $99.02/bbl, and of mining without upgrading was $68.30/bbl. Thus, all types of oil sands projects except new mining projects with integrated upgraders were consistently profitable from 2011 onward. Since the larger and more sophisticated refineries preferred to buy raw bitumen and heavy oil rather than synthetic crude oil, new oil sands projects avoided the costs of building new upgraders. Although primary recovery such as is done in Venezuela is cheaper than SAGD, it only recovers about 10% of the oil in place versus 60% or more for SAGD and over 99% for mining.

At $60 a barrel you can extract the majority of bitumen from the tar sands and sell it at a profit. Oil was selling at $30 dollars a barrel during the plunge in 2008 and the oil sands slowed down, prices for houses dropped but they didnt shut the taps off, and they still made money. The gas fields (which are just as critical to oil and bitumen in Alberta) were unaffected. Some people made even more money because of lower operating costs.

this new story that pretty much says exactly what I just stated

Actually, part of that is what I was saying.

Instead of cutting back production by several million barrels a day to support prices like they did in 2008 and 2009, the Saudis instead chose to protect their market share by slashing prices.

Slashing prices to"protect their market share"??

Methinks something a bit more sinister is behind this move. Saudi can at the turn of a tap dictate the oil prices. They could bring the price up to 100 dollars tomorrow if they wanted, as Venezuela is pressing them to do. Kerry has been in Saudi how many times this year talking about oil? Err.. ISIS?

Call me an Arab conspiracy theorist but seems to me the timing is great for Saudi and USA for oil prices to cool significantly, I dont think its a coincidence.

That's why I said "in the short to near term". But even a few years, heck one year, of low prices would be devastating to many/most in Canada, with its lack of a diverse economy, and where most live from one paycheque to the next carrying massive debt loads between mortgages and consumer debt.

You might be right. But Im a little reluctant to believe Albertans forgot the lesson they learned just four years ago. But then again...

[azimuthaviation]

And if as you say part of the drop is due to the glut in shale oil, where do you think that comes from? A lot comes from right here in Canada. If high production of Canadian shale gas is dropping the oil price, sounds like we have a pretty good buffer.

Plus if either of the Northern Gateway or Keystone projects go ahead, not to mention the many smaller scale or far off proposals (like trans canada east which could eclipse them both), Alberta is safe for a long time and in a great position to ride out any bumps on the way.

[complexintentions]

Well, I hope both of you are right, for Canada's sake. But more and more folks would disagree with you. And from what I see actually living in the ME region and traveling everywhere else, I'd have to agree with them. I certainly wouldn't make casual blanket statements like "Alberta is safe for a long time" lol. The volatility cycles are getting shorter and shorter, that's a fact.

The list of global stresses is long, including a slowdown in China , a dramatic weakening of the once strong German economy, deepening woes elsewhere in Europe, increased strife in the Middle East, and the spreading Ebola scare. And they do not bode well for Canada, because they would force it to become more reliant on the United States, the one major economy still expanding .

If world energy prices keep dropping from weaker demand and a global glut caused partly by a surge in U.S. production that has sharply reduced imports to the United States, the effects will be felt not only in Alberta but across the Canadian economy.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... e21103162/

Keystone and Northern Gateway have just moved further out on the horizon, not closer. And they were nowhere close to even starting to begin with.

Sinister plots? You'll have to expand on that, and how ISIS relates to the Saudis being willing to make less money lol. The US imports less than 15% of their oil from the ME now, so they are not as sensitive to ME pricing as they were in the 70's. Lower prices are definitely better for the US of course, to continue their economic recovery. But ironically, what would help the US would hurt Canada, as unlike us their entire economy isn't based on digging stuff out of the ground (supplemented by selling each other houses). This is the main point I'm trying to make. Even if oil sands can make money at $30, if you're selling a lot less, there are a lot less dollars and jobs to go around. I note no one addressed the effect of a billion dollars of lost revenue. It's the self-reinforcing deflationary loop - less money, less jobs, less spending, less manufacturing, less energy demand, and so on.

Albertans haven't "forgotten" any lessons - they never learned them in the first place, judging by the orgy of spending. Whether politicians or consumers, budgets have all been based on sky-high oil prices. That will bite back, hard. I'd like to think that people have used the good years to prepare for the lean but I doubt it.

[azimuthaviation]

Sinister plots? You'll have to expand on that

Kerry wants Saudi to artificially drive down the price of oil to weaken Russia which relies heavily on energy exports for money and political clout. So Saudi floods a saturated market with a few extra million barrels per day and the price drops. Thats the biggest factor in the price of oil today, not market trends,I believe.

Keystone and Northern Gateway have just moved further out on the horizon, not closer. And they were nowhere close to even starting to begin with.

The midterm election in the USA next month could change that.

I note no one addressed the effect of a billion dollars of lost revenue.

The Alberta budget is drawn up based on the projected value of of oil and the royalties it will receive. It swings wildly every year and many years ending up with a budget surplus.

Albertans haven't "forgotten" any lessons - they never learned them in the first place

That may be the truest statement.

[cyeg66]

I opened the paper today. Indeed, the sky is falling, and it can't get up. Complex, you, your wide brush, and little understanding of macroeconomics should run for office. I truly believe things would brighten up overnight. But then again, I'm pretty gullible.
As to the OP, as others have mentioned, you're kidding, right? Right? Ugh, my head hurts at everything that's so wayward in the "discussion" being held here.

[complexintentions]

hahaha! Nope. No skies falling. All pretty predictable. Everything reverts to the mean....eventually.

Simply an observer on the sidelines, where I prefer to be. Haven't even set foot in the great white north for many moons.

All the best in Edmonchuck, I'm sure it'll all come up roses. Well, unless you're an Oilers fan.

[cyeg66]

All the best in Edmonchuck, I'm sure it'll all come up roses. Well, unless you're an Oilers fan.

Can't argue with that. Of course, I'm one of the few locals that knows better than to pull for those losers. Habs all the way!

[leftoftrack]

All the best in Edmonchuck, I'm sure it'll all come up roses. Well, unless you're an Oilers fan.

Can't argue with that. Of course, I'm one of the few locals that knows better than to pull for those losers. Habs all the way!

Their lookin pretty good so far this year. My bet is western conference champs losing to the pens in the Stanley cup final but building the character needed to create another 5 cups in 7 years