Missing north of Peterborough

[CpnCrunch]

If they really just got lost, I hate to think the lives were lost for the lack of a GPS. E

Lack of a GPS is not to blame here..

Not sure what you mean 'blame' here. It certainly seems that if they had had a GPS, they likely would have survived - either they wouldn't have gotten lost in the first place, or they would have been able to find an airport to land at before running out of fuel. Like most fatal accidents, it looks like a lot of things went wrong.

[Rookie50]

If they really just got lost, I hate to think the lives were lost for the lack of a GPS. E

Lack of a GPS is not to blame here..

Not sure what you mean 'blame' here. It certainly seems that if they had had a GPS, they likely would have survived - either they wouldn't have gotten lost in the first place, or they would have been able to find an airport to land at before running out of fuel. Like most fatal accidents, it looks like a lot of things went wrong.

No, I'm not sure a gps would have been the answer. Looking like VFR into IMC, see link. I really hate these accidents, as it's likely PDM that is the cause here, starting on the ground. Wonder about their experience and if they had any guidance, or a detailed weather briefing before departing on this flight.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/algonquin ... -1.2832074

[MIQ]

Very sad to see this happening. Halliburton really is quite far off course as well. The winds must have really pushed them. I just flew the same route, also in night VFR, on sunday a week ago. From CYRO to CYKZ and it doest get quite dark out there. I had a GPS though, am instrument rated and used all the VORs on the way as backup navigational aids to always be aware of my position. Flight following provided from Montreal and Toronto Terminal is also really a great support. Had I not had a GPS in the plane, I would have most definitely flown down to Kingston and continued from there along Lake Ontario through Trenton, to keep it simple. Flying in night VFR in unfamiliar sparsely populated areas can be highly disorientating. It's sad to see, that no navigational tools could help them to get back on track or at least get them on the ground at Stanhope CND4.
The fact that they were low on fuel could be attributed to the possibility that they might not have gotten fuel in Ottawa, if they even landed there. Flying from CYKZ to CYOW and back to CND4 would take 4 hours with a 80kts groundspeed. An unfortunate reminder for us to respect the 45 minutes minimum night VFR reserve fuel regulation. It's there for a good reason!

[Rookie50]

Rain in the area, too, and a fair bit around 8pm at muskoka, just west of Halliburton.

Metars 00-03z

http://www.ogimet.com/display_metars2.p ... &send=send

[speedah]

Rain in the area, too, and a fair bit around 8pm at muskoka, just west of Halliburton.

Metars 00-03z

http://www.ogimet.com/display_metars2.p ... &send=send

Know where you can access GFA's or FD's from that night?

[clear_blue]

I think Cap' Crunch has it right. A number of often avoidable situations, scenarios, and factors that negatively affect a flight often result in poor, unfavourable results. I'm sure this accident is no different than any other. There may have been poor PDM, and the weather may have been unfavourable, there may even be deeper, unseen factors at play. All I know is I'm not going to speculate as to which one is the most correct answer (with that being said... they're probably all correct, but I sure don't know). What did happen is between the pilot, passenger, and whatever deity they may have believed in, and sadly it will probably remain that way.

Something else I've learned, when using a flyblocktime.ca aircraft, you have to send the owner a text saying that you've landed, within an hour of your planned arrival time (or something like that), which technically meets the requirements for a flight itinerary... not that it means much now.

[Ypilot]

OPP released some pictures.

[slam525i]

If they really just got lost, I hate to think the lives were lost for the lack of a GPS.

Lack of a GPS is not to blame here..

I'm not going to argue that flying VFR at night, over an area with no lights, with no nav aid, was a good idea. I am saying that a basic, portable GPS would have prevented them from getting lost, which is what caused them to eventually run out of fuel.

I will suggest that a lot of pilot decision making has been removed from training due to the policies at flight schools. All flight schools have restrictions, and some of them have restrictions that are ridiculous. As a result, a student never gets to make the decision whether something is a good idea or not. That stays with them as they transition into being flight school renters, where the same restrictions apply. Eventually, some of these pilots will adopt the thinking that "If they let me rent/if it's legal, it's okay."

Not until they leave the flight school and rent outside, such as through Flyblocktime (as with this particular aircraft), do they actually have to make a decision on whether something's a good idea, even if it is legal. Unfortunately, at that point they can make a bad decision and won't live to learn from it.

This is not a condemnation of all flight schools, or all instructors, or all low-time pilots. I'm a low time PPL myself. I trained at a flying club with an instructor that always made me tell him whether or not something was a good idea, whether or not it was legal. Years later, I did my night-rating at a flight school and experienced these restrictions first hand. (Example: I had a rental flight cancelled because the GFA forecasted a T-storm. The T-storm passed 3 hours before the flight was scheduled. It was cancelled 1 hour before the flight due to the policy of no flights with a T-storm on the GFA, no matter what the updated TAF says.) Only when I started to rent outside of flight schools did I have to start thinking "Do I want to attempt to take off with a 15 knot cross wind?" or "Do I want to fly direct across this lake?"

There, but for the grace of God, go I.

[fixnfly]

That's a hard photo to look at. Over the course of my training I've come to realize how dangerous flying single engine night vfr over sparse areas can be when something goes wrong. May they RIP.

[trey kule]

A very tragic ending for two young people.

If one does a bit of researching on this website they will find all sorts of posts recommmending getting night time in, to prepare for the big Eh license. If anything positive can come out of this , it is for low time pilots to recognize how dangerous x-country night flying, single engine VFR is.. No....ifs, ands, or buts...it is dangerous.

Perhaps instead of the pontificating and speculating we all take a moment to understand that everyone makes mistakes....everyone.

[howard40]

Folks building time. Night VFR in a 150 ottawa to toronto CAN work.(if you have to!) BUT since you are building time anyway, why dont you plan the 400 series highway corridor. Then there are a beautiful string of lights pointing the way, and even if it gets a bit lower, or rains a bit, you can see the way, and there are aiports nicely spaced along the route, places to do 180 deg turns to, and options if fuel gets low. fly safely.Most days you will still beat the cars.

[PilotDAR]

Great post slam525i, new pilots pay heed..... We have free will, we should always use it - sometimes to say "I'm not doing that!".

[Rookie50]

Great post too, 525. I agree.

Suppose my thought wonders.....is this a loss of control in IMC. Those photos ---- hard to look at -- dont suggest a controlled forced approach. I could be wrong.

[JungianJugular]

Thanks for sharing your experiences, slam525.

I agree - I've had opportunities to develop PDM skills outside of more restricted flight school flying.

As unfortunate as this event is, it is an important lesson.

[JungianJugular]

Not sure what you mean 'blame' here. It certainly seems that if they had had a GPS, they likely would have survived - either they wouldn't have gotten lost in the first place, or they would have been able to find an airport to land at before running out of fuel. Like most fatal accidents, it looks like a lot of things went wrong.

What I meant was a lack of GPS was not the cause of this accident.

[gwengler]

Suppose my thought wonders.....is this a loss of control in IMC. Those photos ---- hard to look at -- dont suggest a controlled forced approach. I could be wrong.

Yes, I agree. This and the other picture look like the airplane fell straight down which would indicate loos of control.

[Inverted2]

Suppose my thought wonders.....is this a loss of control in IMC. Those photos ---- hard to look at -- dont suggest a controlled forced approach. I could be wrong.

Yes, I agree. This and the other picture look like the airplane fell straight down which would indicate loos of control.

That thing went down hard! That wasn't a flaps 40 glide to impact.

[slam525i]

I have been PM'ed by photofly regarding what I posted on this thread. As I do not have his permission, I will not repost his PM in its entirety here.

As he requested, I state that: "I have no first hand knowledge of who the PIC was nor his/her training experience. I do not know of the restrictions that may or may not have been in place at his/her place of training."

My comment is not targeted at this specific instance. It was a general opinion based on my personal experience regarding the degraded pilot decision making training as a result of the restrictions at several flight schools. I believe all newly licensed students need to be reminded that, without the safety-net of flight-school restriction and oversight, it is up to the PIC to make the decision of whether something is safe, regardless of legality.

I'm not trying to assign "ignorant blame bouncing", and I apologize that he interpreted it as such. However, I do insist that there is value in discussing the pilot decision making process both during and after training for a PPL.

Edited to add: Photofly, I have great respect for your experience, and I urge you to share your views and opinions on this thread directly. I don't think of myself as immune to bad decisions. As I said in my previous post, "There, but for the grace of God, go I."

(Edited for typo)

[Heliian]

Reading the related articles, the pilot had radioed the he was disoriented and they were trying to vector him before losing contact. Yes, it does look like VFR into IMC. PDM does play a huge role in this though, I would not have gone that route in those conditions either.

[timel]

I will suggest that a lot of pilot decision making has been removed from training due to the policies at flight schools. All flight schools have restrictions, and some of them have restrictions that are ridiculous. As a result, a student never gets to make the decision whether something is a good idea or not. That stays with them as they transition into being flight school renters, where the same restrictions apply. Eventually, some of these pilots will adopt the thinking that "If they let me rent/if it's legal, it's okay."

Not until they leave the flight school and rent outside, such as through Flyblocktime (as with this particular aircraft), do they actually have to make a decision on whether something's a good idea, even if it is legal. Unfortunately, at that point they can make a bad decision and won't live to learn from it.

That is an excellent post and I think many pilots can relate with what you are saying.

[Big Pistons Forever]

A very tragic ending for two young people.

If one does a bit of researching on this website they will find all sorts of posts recommmending getting night time in, to prepare for the big Eh license. If anything positive can come out of this , it is for low time pilots to recognize how dangerous x-country night flying, single engine VFR is.. No....ifs, ands, or buts...it is dangerous.

Perhaps instead of the pontificating and speculating we all take a moment to understand that everyone makes mistakes....everyone.

I remember reading an article about accident statistics in the US. After a review of many years worth of day vs night accident reports the author concluded that for non instrument rated PPL's, if one where to compare two flights, one during the day and the other flying an identical cross country route at night; the one at night will be between 15 and 25 times more likely to result in a fatal accident.

How ever you manipulate the accident data there is no question that light aircraft night flying accounts for a disproportionally high number of fatal accidents considering that only a small percentage of the total GA hours are flown at night.

Night flying creates dangers that do not exist during the day. These dangers must be recognized and proactively mitigated as part of good preflight and inflight PDM.

Look back over my years of instructing how I teach the night rating has changed dramatically. At first it was all about the air exercises without a lot of ground briefing. Now the ground briefing is a lot more extensive and is almost wholly devoted to educating the student on where the additional dangers of night flying exist and how to deal with them.

[CFR]

I get where slam525i is coming from. I "cut the apron strings" in a big way when I bought my plane after decades of renting. There is a definite mindshift required when you suddenly find yourself as dispatcher, record keeper, maintenance scheduler and PIC. It entails more than fly or don't fly decisions and includes things like deciding when something that seems not quite right with the plane requires a trip to the AME.

The GFA suddenly became something important to know for more than just an answer on a test. Weather briefings suddenly became more than a listen and copy exercise, and it takes a bit of time to know what questions to ask to get the info you need to make the go, no go decisions. And I became better aware of the functions of the electronic and web based nav tools I had at my disposal. Things like flight following and enroute updates to and from FSS help keep SA high, and after time I learned and adjusted to the limitations of both my aircraft and myself. Luckily I am at the same airport as the rental/flight school I used and they are more than happy to take some time to discuss any issues I may have.

Without much difficulty I can picture what went on in this aircraft in the last hour of the flight, as available options became more limited and finally ran out. Once the engine quit the vacuum instruments started to read incorrectly as they spooled down and remaining level with partial panel is not easy.

From what info is available, the events that led to this outcome were put in place hours before the crash. When an accident like this happens it is of no value to think "Wow I would never be caught like that" and leave it at that. It is important to try and get as much info as possible about the flight to identify each decision point and ask "What would I have done in similar circumstances" and learn from it.

Accidents like this are very sad and I feel for the victims and their families.

[RatherBeFlying]

Night XC is a whole new ballgame compared to day VFR. Over sparsely settled areas, it can slide insidiously into de facto IFR, especially as you don't see the weather you're about to fly into.

I remember an FSS briefing for "high scattered at 33,000“ that found me inside a cloud at 6,500. NY Center was advised I was descending to 4,500 where I was in the clear getting kicked around in mechanical turbulence over the Alleghenies for the next 20 odd minutes.

It was a VFR flight that was pretty much flown IFR. The only missing piece was a clearance.

Flying down to Philly from YTZ in the day, it was a vanilla VFR flight. Returning in a moonless night with very few lights on the ground and no apparent horizon, the airplane would go into a bank before I could make out where I was on the VFR chart. No problem following the IFR chart which handily kept me clear of terrain.

Richard Collins wrote a fine book Night Flying which gives a thorough grounding in the hazards of night flying and the disciplines required to effectively manage the risks. That book seems out of print, but this one may cover the same ground: https://www.sportys.com/PilotSHop/product/15047

You will likely find a bunch of material that is not included in the night flying syllabus.

[J31]

Quite obvious these young guys got into way more than they could handle and lost their lives. Condolences to their families and loved ones who have suffered this loss.

[iflyforpie]

Night VFR is something that is peculiar to North America. In most of the world, to fly at night you need to be IFR.

We should treat night flying like IFR. Competency in flying by instruments, minimum safety elevations, navigation aids with backups, alternate destinations, and generous fuel reserves. We also need to respect the weather even more than Day VFR... no frontal or convective activity, no precip, high visibility, no low cloud, and a large temperature-dewpoint spread.

Slam525i makes a very good point about leaving the flight school nest and going on your own. I remember experiencing that when I first started to walk airplanes for owners who were too busy to fly them. Even still... I am in a completely different mindset taking a private aircraft vs a company plane out... much more vigilant and far more timid than I already am.