Air Tindi Pilot "Hero" for Flying into FRDZ

[Illya Kuryakin]

Forecast or not, common sense dictates that a U turn is required long before the ice becomes an issue with aircraft handling. This guy simply got lucky. He should not have put himself in the position in the first place.....
After all that's been written, why would anyone continue flight into known (it's actually happening, therefore, it's KNOWN ICING) icing in a Caravan? Seriously? Not a hero. Just lucky.
Illya

[single_swine_herder]

"BINGO!"

Illya is once again a winner for describing the situation succinctly.

Screwing around in ice, or having a cavalier approach to the combination ice ice and C208, is a modified form of Russian Roulette.

If a person looks at the Morningstar FEDEX "accident" in YWG, it is an example of how quickly a 208 can be knocked out of the sky by ice as surely as a fly sprayed with RAID .... that one was a terrible loss of a really nice person.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/ ... 43459.html

[Illya Kuryakin]

This comes right back to the corporate culture of this and other organizations.

The leadership of the company has changed since the CFIT accident that killed the hydro worker, but on the surface, this seems like an Operational Control (or lack of it) issue.

True to a point, but. Company culture can't make you fly in unsafe conditions, although it can certainly encourage it. Operational control can't tell you when to turn around when it hits the fan. Only the pilot can do that.
This guy probably came VERY close to being a statistic. He continued to fly in what was obviously an unsafe condition.
Pilots are putting way to much faith in forecasts. They are simply conjured up by witches and warlocks, in dark rooms, using chicken bones and tea leaves.
Fly safe.
Illya

[station60]

...as if you guys are coming down on this poor guy before knowing the entire story. Wow... I don't come on here often and now I remember why. Pathetic.

[Maynard]

You take off in a perfectly good airplane from an airport. You crash land a perfectly good airplane on a frozen lake. The GFA has moderate icing forecasted, along with a Trowal bearing down on the route of flight. Not sure how much more there can be to the story....not trying to be an ass, but those are all facts.

[Meatservo]

Someone posted a picture of the GFA for that timeframe on the other thread. I see the icing was forecast to be between 2500 and 4000 feet. Obviously as Illya Kuryakin says, GFAs are just predictions and can not be totally accurate. However I find myself speculating that it may have been tempting to pop through that anticipated 1550' thick layer and enjoy the nice weather on top of the clouds for the rest of the trip. Obviously the forecast was wrong, and this pilot got caught short.

I think that even today there is an element of chance to aviation. We've managed to shrink it but it's still there. Personally, looking at the information I have from my armchair far, far away from that scene, this guy got sewered by a bad GFA and possibly didn't take the "moderate icing" as literally as he should have. I admit, the presence of a TROWAL is a strong indicator of worse weather.

It's true that icing you can see is "known icing" and this pilot DID turn around. I daresay it's difficult to judge how much ice it will take to down a Caravan if you've never been that close to the edge before.

You guys are correct that there are lessons here. The definition of "moderate" icing, the inaccuracy of GFAs, the TROWAL, and knowing when to turn around all come into play. I will wait until the government uncovers all the facts before I decide to criticize in this case.

Checking sunrise and sunset times for that area of Canada, I see this happened in the dark, too. I have found myself in a "tight spot" of my own making once or twice and when I think of this pilot getting into way worse weather than he was expecting, and finding himself dropping out of the sky in the pitch black in a barely controllable aeroplane, peering through a little square hole in an ice-covered windshield over a barely-frozen lake, it sends chills down my spine. A member of our group just learned some pretty important lessons about flying, and we shouldn't be turning away from him with our arms crossed and a mean look on our faces, we should be buying the man a beer and inviting him over to watch hockey and talk about it if he wants to. I don't know about pinning a medal on his chest, but you can see: he got caught short. It must have at least almost happened to some others among you.

[fish4life]

Just a quick side note, are the 900-1000hp caravans actually capable machines in ice? Or is it just as much of an airframe issue?

[Maynard]

Someone posted a picture of the GFA for that timeframe on the other thread. I see the icing was forecast to be between 2500 and 4000 feet. Obviously as Illya Kuryakin says, GFAs are just predictions and can not be totally accurate. However I find myself speculating that it may have been tempting to pop through that anticipated 1550' thick layer and enjoy the nice weather on top of the clouds for the rest of the trip. Obviously the forecast was wrong, and this pilot got caught short.

Actually, if you look on the left side of the GFA, his picture got cut off. There was icing to 14,000'

[CpnCrunch]

Personally, looking at the information I have from my armchair far, far away from that scene, this guy got sewered by a bad GFA and possibly didn't take the "moderate icing" as literally as he should have. I admit, the presence of a TROWAL is a strong indicator of worse weather.

Isn't it prohibited to fly through moderate icing (assuming he has deicing boots)? Perhaps I'm missing something here, but you seem to be saying it would be perfectly ok to fly through moderate icing.

Assuming I'm not missing something (which is entirely possible), it seems the real problem is that the law essentially says "you can take off if there is forecast moderate icing, but you must exit immediately if you actually encounter it". That seems to be putting a large onus on the skills and decision making abilities of the pilot in flight.

Is it ever a good idea to take off when the forecast says the icing conditions are beyond the certified capability of your plane, even though it may be perfectly legal? If you're not FIKI then it's illegal to even take off if the forecast has any icing.

Perhaps if you find yourself needing to fly in moderate icing on a regular basis you should equip your plane to legally and safely fly in it.

[B-rad]

This is just another example of 703 rules and philosophy gone wrong -- everything is dumped on the pilot's shoulders which increases the possibility of something going sideways -- you have to ask yourself if this would have happened if they were using level 2 dispatch system -- an extra set of eyes and someone who is paid to watch and read the wx could have prevented this -- I for one think there needs to be some major changes in how 703 operates and even 704 and 705 for those carriers who operate under self dispatch system --

I really like this suggestion. There is another thread going on talking about TSB investigating 703 and looking to make some safety improvements and I think this would be a great start.
Heres a link to the other thread and I'm going to copy Liquid Charlie's comments over to there too.
http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopi ... 4&t=100067


In thinking about this situation I feel like I carry a role as a fellow Pilot and perhaps sometimes I loose my way about it. I get caught up in ego and sometimes it satisfies that ego to judge what others did and gives criticism. I don't think that response is helpful for anyone to learn from and only serves to feed my ego. In taking a step back and thinking what could I possibly contribute to help, Meatservo's comments are spot on. There is nothing to gain from judging someone but there is lots of good that can come from listening and being there for them. We are comrades.

A member of our group just learned some pretty important lessons about flying, and we shouldn't be turning away from him with our arms crossed and a mean look on our faces, we should be buying the man a beer and inviting him over to watch hockey and talk about it if he wants to. I don't know about pinning a medal on his chest, but you can see: he got caught short. It must have at least almost happened to some others among you.

There is also some learning that can go on for us in these situations and I have some questions I'd like to know. As CpnCrunch mentions:

it seems the real problem is that the law essentially says "you can take off if there is forecast moderate icing, but you must exit immediately if you actually encounter it". That seems to be putting a large onus on the skills and decision making abilities of the pilot in flight.

Is this true? Is the Caravan legal to be dispatched with moderate icing in a forecast while prohibited from continuing flight if moderate icing is encountered? I've been reading the Airworthiness Directive (AD) 2007-10-15, amendment 39-15056, and this is how I read it but don't quite understand. It seams very risky to allow an airplane to fly while the conditions that are prohibited are to be expected.

http://www.caa.si/fileadmin/user_upload ... -10-15.pdf

(1) For Cessna Model 208 airplanes and Model 208B airplanes, all serial numbers, equipped with airframe deicing pneumatic boots, that are not currently prohibited from flight in known or forecast icing: You are prohibited from continued flight after encountering moderate or greater icing conditions. The airplane can dispatch into forecast areas of icing but must exit moderate or greater icing conditions if encountered.
...
"One or more of the following defines moderate icing conditions for this airplane:
Indicated airspeed in level cruise flight at constant power decreases by 20 knots. Engine torque required to maintain airspeed increases by 400 ft. lbs. Airspeed of 120 KIAS cannot be maintained in level flight. An accretion of \1/4\-inch of ice is observed on the wing strut."

Again, I'm only asking this for my own knowledge and not to be critical.

[Illya Kuryakin]

...as if you guys are coming down on this poor guy before knowing the entire story. Wow... I don't come on here often and now I remember why. Pathetic.

I've seen all the "facts" I need to see on this one. You can wait for the "fairytale" to come out if you like. He continued flight into known icing which his aircraft could not handle. He came within a very small whisker of killing himself and his passengers. Please feel free to wait for the "entire story" to come out. Just one more "no fly" airline for any of my family members. You are right about one thing though....Pathetic.
Illya

[Cat Driver]

Looking at the picture of that airplane and considering it was dark that looks more like CFIT than a landing.

[B-rad]

I realize I probably diluted the message of my previous post by including three different thoughts in it, so I want write one part again to separate the one message that I feel strongest about:

In thinking about this situation I feel like I carry a role as a fellow Pilot and perhaps sometimes I loose my way about it. I get caught up in ego and sometimes it satisfies that ego to judge what others did and gives criticism. I don't think that response is helpful for anyone to learn from and only serves to feed my ego. In taking a step back and thinking what could I possibly contribute to help, Meatservo's comments are spot on. There is nothing to gain from judging someone but there is lots of good that can come from listening and being there for them. We are comrades.

A member of our group just learned some pretty important lessons about flying, and we shouldn't be turning away from him with our arms crossed and a mean look on our faces, we should be buying the man a beer and inviting him over to watch hockey and talk about it if he wants to. I don't know about pinning a medal on his chest, but you can see: he got caught short. It must have at least almost happened to some others among you.

[Heliian]

At least he remembered to put the gear down.

[Donald]

Sure are a lot of perfect humans here.

[Illya Kuryakin]

Sorry here guys, but WAY too much emphasis is being placed on the GFA. Toss it out the window for a moment, and consider this. You're in a Caravan. You are suddenly picking up ice. Rabidly. What Ya gonna do? You're going to turn the puppy around. Right now! I don't need no stinking GFA. And, neither should you.
Illya

[Illya Kuryakin]

Sure are a lot of perfect humans here.

Not perfect Donald, but able to do a one hundred and eighty degree turn, faster than a speeding bullet.
Illya

[Cat Driver]

but able to do a one hundred and eighty degree turn, faster than a speeding bullet.

How in hell do you turn a speeding bullet?

[godsrcrazy]

Sure are a lot of perfect humans here.

This from a guy whom always posts about what goes on in every other operation based out of YZF. Check your own post's before you criticize others.

[shimmydampner]

I've seen all the "facts" I need to see on this one. You can wait for the "fairytale" to come out if you like. He continued flight into known icing which his aircraft could not handle.

Oh really? So you know how much ice he had on when he made the decision to turn around? It's not possible in your mind that perhaps he turned around at a very prudent time but may have been sewered by the fact that in the short time after he departed, freezing drizzle had developed back in Yellowknife and despite a possible good decision to turn around, he was indeed flying into worsening weather?
Ultimately, you don't know anything about the pilot or the series of decisions he made beyond departure. Normally I'm all for the "hang 'em high" approach for things like taking off with less than legal fuel, stalling airliners into the ocean from 40 000 feet or crashing them short of giant runways on beautiful days. This instance isn't like those. The pilot didn't depart into freezing drizzle, but was unfortunately faced with it after making the decision to turn back. The timing of that decision is the difference between making it back safely, descending onto a lake or killing everyone on board. And because 1: you don't know what the icing conditions were when he turned around, and 2: icing conditions were worsening back at his point of departure, you really can't intelligently comment on the matter.
I doubt that will stop you though.
He gets the benefit of the doubt from me unless some egregious PDM can be proved. There but for the grace of god...

[Illya Kuryakin]

Perhaps goes you there, eh Shimmy?
Illya

[shimmydampner]

Sure Doc, whatever you say.

[Rookie50]

Flying a 182, I am quite terrified of icing this time of year.

Getting therapy to work through my lack of manhood in this area.

[Illya Kuryakin]

Sure Doc, whatever you say.

When you've learned half of what he's forgotten, get back to me.
Illya

[deenus]

The one thing i haven't seen mentioned in this feed is about the company pressure to fly. In the previous caravan accident, if you ignore the marijuana aspect, one of the major reasons was the pressure for the pilot to go VFR. In this case, though he was IFR, the flight was actually rescheduled from the night before. I think it's unlikely that the company's attitude towards pushing pilots to go has changed very much. They just don't push them to go VFR anymore. I think the pressure from the company played a huge role in this.

As far as the, you can just say no argument goes, i have seen the chief pilot come down on pilots in several different companies for not going in marginal conditions. They may not lose their job like it may have been in the past, but there are other ways that they can screw with you for not going (no upgrades, fleet changes, raises). There was more than the weather effecting his decision to attempt the flight.