Corona Virus

[dialdriver]

Who let the dogs out?

[Puffpuffpass]

When I’m in the bathroom at the airport and I see like three people in a row take a piss and leave without washing their hands, I think no f*cking wonder it’s spreading so fast. People are so ignorant, lazy, and complacent about it.

Well actually unless they had oral sex with a carrier of the virus, not washing their hands (although totally gross) would make them less likely to spread it because they didn't touch the sink.

My dick is a lot cleaner then any sink in a public restroom

[Eric Janson]

Rather than the “WHO proving itself totally useless” it seems to be taking a reasoned, rational approach to this. What would you have them do? Shut down global travel and commerce?

That's exactly what needs to be done imho. This is how outbreaks were handled in the past - it has proven to be an effective strategy.

Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

George Santayana

The Flu deaths so far this year are "estimates" from the CDC.

I personally don't know anyone that has died of Flu.

South Korea is the country to watch as they appear to be completely transparent with their figures. People get sick first and death occurs later - the next 10-14 days will give a much clearer picture of the mortality rate.

[7ECA]

Rather than the “WHO proving itself totally useless” it seems to be taking a reasoned, rational approach to this. What would you have them do? Shut down global travel and commerce?

That's exactly what needs to be done imho. This is how outbreaks were handled in the past - it has proven to be an effective strategy.

No, an effective strategy that has been used in the past to contain outbreaks of infectious diseases are quarantines/cordon sanitaire. Thus far, the quarantines in China have actually done a lot more than some people seem to think, in containing the virus - imagine if there hadn't been any attempts at containment in China? Do you think the majority of cases would still be in China, or spread more evenly around the world?

Shutting down global travel, would requite a herculean effort of global cooperation - something that is unlikely over more pressing issues or even truly trivial ones. So, you're asking a few hundred countries that don't all get along to agree to completely stop all travel - and thus destroy the world economy? Interesting strategy...

[mixturerich]

United is offering paid leave for 777/787 pilots...

https://onemileatatime.com/united-airli ... aid-leave/

[JohnnyHotRocks]

The music is officially stopping

[ayseven]

People love saying that, don't they? You can be realistic, and you can be negative. Life is hard, and then you die.

[JohnnyHotRocks]

Black swan event like 911 and SARs
You can be negative or positive but it won’t change things

[2R]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... onavirus/8

I think we just finished off the beans and rice that was stockpiled for Y2K and the end of the world Mayan calendar thing in 2012 .
There has to be better long shelf life foods for the bunker or at least do not taste like some hippy chicks armpit

['97 Tercel]

[EPR]

FlyBe, a regional located in the UK just ceased operations....canary in the mine shaft?

[ogc]

FlyBe, a regional located in the UK just ceased operations....canary in the mine shaft?

No they have been in trouble for a long time. This was just the final nail in the coffin

[mixturerich]

Now they’re saying the virus has a 3.4% kill rate

[complexintentions]

Now they’re saying the virus has a 3.4% kill rate

Hmm. Who are "they"?

The more conspiratorially-minded were adamant the Chinese "must be" under-reporting their figures. But if there were vast numbers more infected with a confirmed number of deaths, that would actually mean the morbidity rate is lower.

But now they're stating the rate is 3.4%. So we're trusting the Chinese figures now.

Pick the numbers that suit you.

Got it.

[complexintentions]

FlyBe, a regional located in the UK just ceased operations....canary in the mine shaft?

No they have been in trouble for a long time. This was just the final nail in the coffin

More like an excuse. All Virgin and the other buyers ever wanted were the slots at Heathrow. Coronavirus my arse.

[Adiabatic]

I've been following the WHO data that comes with the daily situation reports. These are the figures i get. I'm not a professional in any way. I trust the WHO. I hope the numbers are truly accurately represented by the WHO.
I also find data here as well.
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

[av8ts]

Scientists: you should wash your hands because of Coronavirus.

People: I'm gonna stop flying, hoard masks, work from home & totally rearrange my life.

Also Scientists: the Climate Crisis will kill millions - we must use clean power & change how we get to work.

People: No way.

[av8ts]

Currently looking at Airbnb’s in Tuscany for July. Prices dropping every day. We were planning a week, now thinking about 3 weeks

['97 Tercel]

I hear the Wuhan area has some great discounts

[Inverted2]

I hear the Wuhan area has some great discounts

The bat soup is to die for.

[Trematode]

Regarding the 3.4% figure I think you have to keep it mind the amount of testing actually being conducted (or lack thereof) will impact those numbers.

[complexintentions]

The problem with the numbers isn't so much their accuracy, it's their interpretation at what is still the early stages of an outbreak. Accurately determining the correct values for numerator and denominator is extremely difficult until after the outbreak passes, unfortunately. This has been well-documented from past outbreaks that have vastly overstated the mortality rates initially.

A good analysis of the issue, and a reasonable theory as to the actual CFR (Case Fatality Rate, ie "kill rate") based on the Diamond Princess quarantine - as close to a perfectly controlled environment as one could hope for:

COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think

Don’t hoard masks and food. Figure out how to help seniors and the immunosuppressed stay healthy.

This still largely comes down to hygiene and isolation. But in particular, we need to focus on the right people and the right places. Nursing homes, not schools. Hospitals, not planes. We need to up the hygienic and isolation ante primarily around the subset of people who can’t simply contract SARS-CoV-2 and ride it out the way healthy people should be able to.

[av8ts]

I hear the Wuhan area has some great discounts

I’ve been to China. No hurry to go back. However I could live in Europe

[mixturerich]

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spre ... 52222.html

“New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the outbreak might affect the world's wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.

In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.”

Here’s the study:

https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/f608a9 ... inline/no/


Compared to SARS...

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died.


Hold on to your hats, boys.

Edit: Here’s the worst case model if you’re morbidly curious...

“In the high-severity model — modeled after the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 17 million to 50 million globally from 1918 to 1920 — the global GDP loss could be as high as $9 trillion. In that model, the death toll is estimated to surpass 68 million.”

[rxl]

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spre ... 52222.html

“New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the outbreak might affect the world's wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.

In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.”

Here’s the study:

https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/f608a9 ... inline/no/


Compared to SARS...

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died.


Hold on to your hats, boys.

Edit: Here’s the worst case model if you’re morbidly curious...

“In the high-severity model — modeled after the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed an estimated 17 million to 50 million globally from 1918 to 1920 — the global GDP loss could be as high as $9 trillion. In that model, the death toll is estimated to surpass 68 million.”

Meanwhile I feel so incredibly relieved after hearing the comments of the “Stable Genius” on the crisis at CDC yesterday -

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) Tweeted:
Here's Trump rambling at length about how smart he is and how well he understands public health https://t.co/1Co6MaRkzl
Aaron Rupar on Twitter