It's Time

[propstojets]

Realitychex is alluding to the same idea, that 1 NM is approximately 1.15 SM. I don't think anyone is debating that.

The issue is with the use of the word, LONGER.

Gentlemen, guns down please, back on topic, union or no union at Porter.

Well said.

It’s been a common practice for folks who can’t come up with a credible counter argument to simply obfuscate and throw in red herrings.

This little diversion was a classic example of this.

Back to the topic for those folks pondering career decisions at Porter vs elsewhere.

Porter managed 6hrs 28 mins airborne, an asl of 1,347 miles and 2.14 sectors flown per each of the 42 C- registered E2 aircraft yesterday, with 8 tails idle for one reason or another, and 8 tails with fewer than 5hrs utilization.

If anyone can provide a shred of evidence of any sched operator on the planet that can show verifiable profitability, (meaning sustainability without regular large infusions of cash), with that sort of utilization on a Friday heading into a defacto l/w, the only revenue bright spot between Oct 15th and Dec 19th, I’d be very keen to see it.

Porter has announced they would increase their spare airplanes to 9 by the end of the year due to P&W issues. Not ideal, but intended. Hopefully they get some concrete loss of income compensation from P&W besides engine credits.

[Landingstrip]

A millipede has more feet than a centipede.

There, now it's settled. Can we get back on the topic of ALPA and Porter?

Usually but not always! Accord to my search, centipedes can have as many as 382 legs in the order Geophilomorpha and Millipedes can have as few as 34.

[Realitychex]

Well said.

It’s been a common practice for folks who can’t come up with a credible counter argument to simply obfuscate and throw in red herrings.

This little diversion was a classic example of this.

Back to the topic for those folks pondering career decisions at Porter vs elsewhere.

Porter managed 6hrs 28 mins airborne, an asl of 1,347 miles and 2.14 sectors flown per each of the 42 C- registered E2 aircraft yesterday, with 8 tails idle for one reason or another, and 8 tails with fewer than 5hrs utilization.

If anyone can provide a shred of evidence of any sched operator on the planet that can show verifiable profitability, (meaning sustainability without regular large infusions of cash), with that sort of utilization on a Friday heading into a defacto l/w, the only revenue bright spot between Oct 15th and Dec 19th, I’d be very keen to see it.

Is it just me, or is this guy completely incapable of admitting he made a mistake? Completely void of any sense of accountability? How hard is it.... hey sorry guys, I made a mistake, but I stand by the rest of my points...?

Too hard for this guy is guess.

It's wild to read actually. Classic snobby executive attitude. You're doing the right job for your personality I guess.

This is the guy that was harvesting competitor loads through an internal employee travel website (Obviously not his own) and saw nothing wrong with it


I'm sorry guys... It's just so easy.

And rumors persist that brown manila envelopes of data provided by employees of both a Halifax-based 737 operation and Montreal based airline that operated MD and Fokker aircraft would regularly appear on a competing airline’s YYZ station managers desk, perhaps by some who want to curry favor for a desired change in employment scenery?

Who knows what went the other direction?

It remains a mystery to some why things were settled so quickly with a nice donation to the Boys and Girls Club of Canada, a certain western based airline CEO’s long time and worthy charity of choice, once an Ontario judge threatened certain parties of an eastern based airline with a contempt of court order, with the possibility of some nasty consequences, unless they ended months of delay tactics and were not immediately forthcoming with documents pertaining to a counter suit that revolved around alleged similar activities.

The stories are legendary.

WS had to install specialized equipment in windows at the original Mactavish HQ and elsewhere to cause micro vibrations to prevent them from being used as, in essence, microphone diaphragms after mysterious white vans with parabolic dishes mounted on their roofs were regularly spotted and confronted in adjacent parking lots.

It was all fun and games, and a stark reminder for those who have never experienced the complexity and mysteries of the C suite world, a world aptly described by Bob Crandall as the nearest thing to legalized warfare in existence.

How all of this, let alone an extraneous discussion confirming the use of statute miles vs nautical miles when calculating asl, relates 20 years after the fact to data that illustrates an airline that chronically underuses its expensive core assets necessary to generate sufficient operating revenue to cover fixed and variable costs and therefore is directly linked to the long term career aspirations of junior pilots, many of whom were barely out of diapers at the time, continues to evade me.

[PorterPilots4Change]

We are happy to share that we will be hosting our second ALPA information session. To join, reach out to one of our many organizing committee members, or, contact us via our website.

In solidarity,
www.PorterPilotsForChange.ca

[CaptDukeNukem]

Is it just me, or is this guy completely incapable of admitting he made a mistake? Completely void of any sense of accountability? How hard is it.... hey sorry guys, I made a mistake, but I stand by the rest of my points...?

Too hard for this guy is guess.

It's wild to read actually. Classic snobby executive attitude. You're doing the right job for your personality I guess.

This is the guy that was harvesting competitor loads through an internal employee travel website (Obviously not his own) and saw nothing wrong with it


I'm sorry guys... It's just so easy.

And rumors persist that brown manila envelopes of data provided by employees of both a Halifax-based 737 operation and Montreal based airline that operated MD and Fokker aircraft would regularly appear on a competing airline’s YYZ station managers desk, perhaps by some who want to curry favor for a desired change in employment scenery?

Who knows what went the other direction?

It remains a mystery to some why things were settled so quickly with a nice donation to the Boys and Girls Club of Canada, a certain western based airline CEO’s long time and worthy charity of choice, once an Ontario judge threatened certain parties of an eastern based airline with a contempt of court order, with the possibility of some nasty consequences, unless they ended months of delay tactics and were not immediately forthcoming with documents pertaining to a counter suit that revolved around alleged similar activities.

The stories are legendary.

WS had to install specialized equipment in windows at the original Mactavish HQ and elsewhere to cause micro vibrations to prevent them from being used as, in essence, microphone diaphragms after mysterious white vans with parabolic dishes mounted on their roofs were regularly spotted and confronted in adjacent parking lots.

It was all fun and games, and a stark reminder for those who have never experienced the complexity and mysteries of the C suite world, a world aptly described by Bob Crandall as the nearest thing to legalized warfare in existence.

How all of this, let alone an extraneous discussion confirming the use of statute miles vs nautical miles when calculating asl, relates 20 years after the fact to data that illustrates an airline that chronically underuses its expensive core assets necessary to generate sufficient operating revenue to cover fixed and variable costs and therefore is directly linked to the long term career aspirations of junior pilots, many of whom were barely out of diapers at the time, continues to evade me.

Umm… okay

[Realitychex]

The Porter E2 pilot group might want to seriously start thinking about WAWC and FOAG were Porter ever able to generate the sort of utilization Flair generates.

I don't see any liklihood of the pilot group making out like bandits from an IPO as a result of their acquiring stock options and a generous matched stock purchase plan as was the case with pilots at WS, so the big money is likely going to come as a result of unionization and some rather bitter negotiations.

I'm not suggesting Flair is a viable operation, but I can say with a fair degree of confidence that Flair's fully allocated cost per seat dispatched yesterday over their 1,167 mile ASL with 10 hrs 1 min airborne utilization per tail, (with 3 in the weeds), was in the neighborhood of c$171.43 (excluding taxes and fees), and Porter over their 1,385 mile ASL with 6hrs 19 mins utilization, (with 10 in the weeds), was about c$263. It's night and day.

Bear in mind this was the exit day of a long weekend for most, (and likely the best revenue day between Oct 14th until Dec 20th).

If you don't like Porter's FOAG now, you're really gonna dislike it when Porter figures out how to operate its fleet with anything close to industry standard utilization.

For those intrigued by utilization numbers for tails that actually operated yesterday, Porter managed 8hrs 18 mins, (still at least 2 hrs below industry standards with that sort of lengthy ASL), and Flair generated 11hrs 47 minutes, which is quite healthy.

It also explains why Boeing and Airbus's order book is where it's at, and why Embraer continues to struggle finding airlines that'll take the aircraft on.

If you want any chance of a profit, which, if you're lucky, might amount to a 10% annual operating margin, that profit will be found in the last 10% of the day's operations once all the fixed costs are covered.

I'd far rather have 58.6% more daily airborne hours per tail available when my expensive assets are generating revenue to be able to find that elusive 10% operating margin.

Cue the red herrings....

[CaptDukeNukem]

The Porter E2 pilot group might want to seriously start thinking about WAWC and FOAG were Porter ever able to generate the sort of utilization Flair generates.

I don't see any liklihood of the pilot group making out like bandits from an IPO as a result of their acquiring stock options and a generous matched stock purchase plan as was the case with pilots at WS, so the big money is likely going to come as a result of unionization and some rather bitter negotiations.

I'm not suggesting Flair is a viable operation, but I can say with a fair degree of confidence that Flair's fully allocated cost per seat dispatched yesterday over their 1,167 mile ASL with 10 hrs 1 min airborne utilization per tail, (with 3 in the weeds), was in the neighborhood of c$171.43 (excluding taxes and fees), and Porter over their 1,385 mile ASL with 6hrs 19 mins utilization, (with 10 in the weeds), was about c$263. It's night and day.

Bear in mind this was the exit day of a long weekend for most, (and likely the best revenue day between Oct 14th until Dec 20th).

If you don't like Porter's FOAG now, you're really gonna dislike it when Porter figures out how to operate its fleet with anything close to industry standard utilization.

For those intrigued by utilization numbers for tails that actually operated yesterday, Porter managed 8hrs 18 mins, (still at least 2 hrs below industry standards with that sort of lengthy ASL), and Flair generated 11hrs 47 minutes, which is quite healthy.

It also explains why Boeing and Airbus's order book is where it's at, and why Embraer continues to struggle finding airlines that'll take the aircraft on.

If you want any chance of a profit, which, if you're lucky, might amount to a 10% annual operating margin, that profit will be found in the last 10% of the day's operations once all the fixed costs are covered.

I'd far rather have 58.6% more daily airborne hours per tail available when my expensive assets are generating revenue to be able to find that elusive 10% operating margin.

Cue the red herrings....

I don’t think embraer’s order books has anything to do with fleet utilization rates versus scope clause. Embraer has been cautious entering the Boeing/airbus market. Sure the E2 doesn’t fit into the scope clause, but I think this was a gamble that regional markets may get up-gauged and scope may change.
If you look at the history of numerous manufacturers, there’s been a lot of airplanes that have failed to meet a profit for the makers. A380 for one.

It’s too early to tell how embraer’s E2 will perform with Porter’s operation. Your numbers are based on day to day. As you mentioned above.

If you feel this way, short stock porter after the IPO and bet on flair

[CaptDukeNukem]

Also. I respect your numbers.
Would you be so kind as to post all major airlines fleet utilization rates for comparison? AC,WJ,TS, SW, jazz and encore.
Preferably in an excel sheet with pie charts.

[CaptDukeNukem]

Toss in Cargojet for fun

[Realitychex]

Also. I respect your numbers.
Would you be so kind as to post all major airlines fleet utilization rates for comparison? AC,WJ,TS, SW, jazz and encore.
Preferably in an excel sheet with pie charts.

Agreed. It'd be fascinating to see this data.

Alas, it'd take way to much time and energy to accomplish this.

It's possible to draw some conclusions from AC's MD & A. As for WS, I'd bet the farm that outside the aircraft lost to the Aug hail storm, their utilization would be at industry normal levels adjusted for their asl.

Porter isn't anywhere close to those norms on any basis.

If anyone else cares to take that project on, it'd be appreciated.

[Realitychex]

On Monday Dec 2nd, WestJet’s fleet of 38 130 seat 737-700’s operated with an ASL of about 889 miles vs Porter’s 132 seat E2’s asl of 1,368 miles.

With SAN and PSP coming on stream, we’ll see more 1,400 miles asl days at Porter in Dec, which will result in their having the 2nd or 3rd highest ASL of all operating airlines in North America. Only AC and UAL will be higher, and they operate about 350 wide bodies between them.

Quite a feat for an airline operating a stretched regional jet.

There are 3 -700 WS tails in SAT and TUS. They are included in the count but may be lease returns. WS doesn’t typically do HMV work at those locations.

WS got better daily utilization out of their 737-700 fleet, generating 31% more seats for sale.

Porter’s fully allocated casm on Monday would have been in the region of 16.91 Cdn cents over that lengthy asl. WestJet’s would have been about 18.85 cents over the much shorter asl. That’s using EMB’s own data regarding fuel and maintenance costs. Ownership costs would be $275k for the E2’s and $175k for the -700’s.

Stage length adjusted those costs to a standardized asl, (be it 1,368, 889 or 1,000 miles, it doesn’t matter), and the 737-700 will have costs as good as, and I’d bet slightly better than what Porter is delivering with their E2 fleet.

Even I didn’t see that one coming. The -800 and Max fleets will be materially better than that.

For the record, on the same day, AZUL’s fleet of 25 E2’s operated 46% more sectors than Porter with an ASL of 457 miles. Some tails operated as many as 11 sectors on the day, with the average being 7.7. AZUL’s 25 E2 tails generated 19,856 seats in the market vs Porter’s 42 E2’s with just 13,200 seats.

Now THAT’S how you make money with the E2.

[JBI]

There are 3 -700 WS tails in SAT and TUS. They are included in the count but may be lease returns. WS doesn’t typically do HMV work at those locations.

WS got better daily utilization out of their 737-700 fleet, generating 31% more seats for sale.

2 of those -700s are likely the hulls that were damaged pretty significantly by the hail event in Calgary. It seems they may be written-off due to the significant repair costs.

[Realitychex]

I’ve heard that too, but until it’s confirmed they’re gone, they have to be included in the operating metrics.

There’s another one that hasn’t operated for at least 90 days, whereabouts unknown.

[Realitychex]

Porter stats for the week ended Dec 7th

666 sectors operated with the fleet of 42 tails
1,384 mile ASL
6hrs 54 mins utilization per tail per day
OTP: 73%

For context, American Airlines, with 126 wide bodies, reported a YTD asl of 1,156 miles at the mainline and 459 miles at regional ops for an average of 847 miles.

AA is a short haul airline compared to Porter and their fleet of stretched, re-engined 132 seat RJ’s.

Azul’s 25 E2 tails generated 7hrs 15 mins per tail per day with an asl of a far more appropriate, and profit generating 476 miles. It’s not unusual to see Azul tails operate 10 sectors a day. Azul’s OTP is consistently in the mid 80% range.

[goingnowherefast]

Instead of wasting all our time with this, maybe go take your brilliant ideas to a lender and start another airline. Since Porter is destined to fail any day now, start in their back yard and call it EasyJet.

[Canucklhead]

Porter stats for the week ended Dec 7th

666 sectors operated with the fleet of 42 tails
1,384 mile ASL
6hrs 54 mins utilization per tail per day
OTP: 73%

For context, American Airlines, with 126 wide bodies, reported a YTD asl of 1,156 miles at the mainline and 459 miles at regional ops for an average of 847 miles.

AA is a short haul airline compared to Porter and their fleet of stretched, re-engined 132 seat RJ’s.

Azul’s 25 E2 tails generated 7hrs 15 mins per tail per day with an asl of a far more appropriate, and profit generating 476 miles. It’s not unusual to see Azul tails operate 10 sectors a day. Azul’s OTP is consistently in the mid 80% range.

For us non finance types can you explain how a lower ASL translates into better profitability? Is it the potential to complete more sectors which generate more revenue?

Is there a point where the ASL is considered too low? Thanks.

[cjp]

Porter stats for the week ended Dec 7th

666 sectors operated with the fleet of 42 tails
1,384 mile ASL
6hrs 54 mins utilization per tail per day
OTP: 73%

For context, American Airlines, with 126 wide bodies, reported a YTD asl of 1,156 miles at the mainline and 459 miles at regional ops for an average of 847 miles.

AA is a short haul airline compared to Porter and their fleet of stretched, re-engined 132 seat RJ’s.

Azul’s 25 E2 tails generated 7hrs 15 mins per tail per day with an asl of a far more appropriate, and profit generating 476 miles. It’s not unusual to see Azul tails operate 10 sectors a day. Azul’s OTP is consistently in the mid 80% range.

I may have missed it, did you post CASMs for Azul? Very different market in Brazil.

Azul has essentially become the Westjet of Brazil in 16 years. They operate Neos, 330s, ATRs, and E195s (E1s and E2s). They also have a smaller fleet of cargo Airbus.

Different company structure, and the E195 being the smallest jet they operate, they would obviously deploy it in a shorthaul fashion, as they would leave the longer routes to the A32Xs and 330s. They also run the E2 with 136 seat single pitch economy, where as we have the two pitches and offer the E2 as a premium flying experience to complement the Dash 8.

The approaches to how Porter and Azul use their aircraft and what they offer are night and day, and are built for completely different markets. Trying to compare the way each company utilizes their assets is very much tangerines to clementines.

You may, as a former executive, iirc, in the low cost sector, may really enjoy the approach that Azul has taken with their E2s, really hitting that CASM and flying a more appropriate ASL to the type, but its all moot. They also have less of a pilot shortage, lower salaries, and Azul provides less product which spells for lower CASM.

We fly in Canada and the US, with wildly different weather, different airport structures and ATC. Very fickle markets and we're trying to attack a very different market; trans continental upscale economy with a single type. As far as I can tell, we're the only ones tending to this market and it seems to be working as we crack open new routes. Air Canada 220s, or Westjets Maxs would be most similar.

[Realitychex]

Porter generated 421,765 ASM’s and 305 seats per tail per day on Thurs Dec 5th

Azul generated 393,263 ASM’s and 794 seats per tail per day on the same day.

Given the strategy described above, is the E2 the optimum aircraft for the mission? Or is its sweet spot around 500 miles?

Let’s put it another way.

For the strategy that’s been rolled out, ie an airline with an asl close to 1,400 miles, had there been the opportunity to acquire the equivalent number (34) Max 8’s or Airbus equivalents, I’m pretty sure they’d have gone that direction rather than the E2.

The economics, profitability and exit opportunities would have been far more interesting.

The E2 needs 10hrs a day out of each airframe with that near 1,400 mile asl, with lots of daily seats available, each one attracting additional fees, (seat assignments, bags, changes, upgrades) to make it work. Alternatively, industry leading yields are required.

The E2 is perfect for what Azul is doing and they are disciplined enough to ensure it stays in that money making lane.

Could they operate REC-MIA , MAO-MIA or BSB-PUJ with the E2?

Sure. But they’re smart enough not to.

Selecting the right aircraft for the strategy is critical for a startup operation.

Had WestJet been beholden to the DC9, (which was initially the plan), it would have failed. Greyhound and the 727. Jetsgo and the MD80. Anyone and a standalone fleet of CRJ200’s. There are a ton of examples of plans that went sideways because the wrong aircraft type was selected for the strategy contemplated.

[braaap Braap]

Porter stats for the week ended Dec 7th

666 sectors operated with the fleet of 42 tails
1,384 mile ASL
6hrs 54 mins utilization per tail per day
OTP: 73%

For context, American Airlines, with 126 wide bodies, reported a YTD asl of 1,156 miles at the mainline and 459 miles at regional ops for an average of 847 miles.

AA is a short haul airline compared to Porter and their fleet of stretched, re-engined 132 seat RJ’s.

Azul’s 25 E2 tails generated 7hrs 15 mins per tail per day with an asl of a far more appropriate, and profit generating 476 miles. It’s not unusual to see Azul tails operate 10 sectors a day. Azul’s OTP is consistently in the mid 80% range.

Are you also looking at the Dashport operation?

[Realitychex]

No.

For all intents and purposes, it’s a distinct, separate operation.

The opportunity to connect one to the other are extremely limited.

YTZ-YOW-YVR? BOS-YTZ and an uber to YYZ?

YHZ-YHU-YYC when there are n/s alternatives? This assumes Porter vacates YUL….or do they run a split Montreal operation, further increasing costs and reducing network opportunities?

It’s for that reason that no one has stepped up to buy it over the past 15 years, after numerous peeks under the kilt.

It can’t be integrated into a network.

[Realitychex]

Duplicate.

[braaap Braap]

ahh so it really is about cherry picking the things that make Porter as a brand look as weak as possible? Show us on the doll where Deluce touched you.

[Realitychex]

ahh so it really is about cherry picking the things that make Porter as a brand look as weak as possible? Show us on the doll where Deluce touched you.

Another clever, data rich analysis.

Perhaps you could post something useful when Porter’s fleet utilization reaches 85% of North Amercan industry averages.

[cjp]

Porter generated 421,765 ASM’s and 305 seats per tail per day on Thurs Dec 5th

Azul generated 393,263 ASM’s and 794 seats per tail per day on the same day.

Given the strategy described above, is the E2 the optimum aircraft for the mission? Or is its sweet spot around 500 miles?

Let’s put it another way.

For the strategy that’s been rolled out, ie an airline with an asl close to 1,400 miles, had there been the opportunity to acquire the equivalent number (34) Max 8’s or Airbus equivalents, I’m pretty sure they’d have gone that direction rather than the E2.

The economics, profitability and exit opportunities would have been far more interesting.

The E2 needs 10hrs a day out of each airframe with that near 1,400 mile asl, with lots of daily seats available, each one attracting additional fees, (seat assignments, bags, changes, upgrades) to make it work. Alternatively, industry leading yields are required.

The E2 is perfect for what Azul is doing and they are disciplined enough to ensure it stays in that money making lane.

Could they operate REC-MIA , MAO-MIA or BSB-PUJ with the E2?

Sure. But they’re smart enough not to.

Selecting the right aircraft for the strategy is critical for a startup operation.

Had WestJet been beholden to the DC9, (which was initially the plan), it would have failed. Greyhound and the 727. Jetsgo and the MD80. Anyone and a standalone fleet of CRJ200’s. There are a ton of examples of plans that went sideways because the wrong aircraft type was selected for the strategy contemplated.

Ok, lets look at it a different way.

What was the opportunity for Porter to acquire a stake in a significantly large order of say Neos or Maxs with a 5 year delivery timeline of 100+ jets? Likely the backlog on either of those manufacturers books would've not allowed the surprise entry to market that Porter required and provided both current competitors time and influence with those manufacturers to respond.

The only manufacturer, an underdog if you will, willing to work with the current runt of the litter of Canadian airlines, Porter, was Embraer.

There is zero chance Airbus or Boeing would've provided the launch support that Porter required. In addition, owning either of the above aircraft puts it in the same cost structure, branding and recall stream that Air Canada or Westjet are dealing with, particularly if anything new comes to light with the Max's. They might be great machines $ wise, but Boeing branding right now is a nightmare. Remember the days - if its not Boeing I'm not going...

With your connections, I'm sure you can put together daily profit per tail. What's the comparison between Azul and Porter on Azul's most profitable route? What about Westjet/Air Canada and Porter operating Toronto to San Francisco?

[Realitychex]

Boeing and Airbus regularly supply airframes to competing airlines.

Case in point: both AC and WS operate the Max.

If Porter picked up the phone tomorrow, both Airbus and Boeing would happily sell them aircraft. You can be sure both airframers have sales people assigned to the Porter file

And I’ll also guarantee that both AC and WS have both had detailed sales pitches from the folks in SJdC .

With that 1,400 mile asl, I’d have been looking very strongly at the -800. I’m familiar with a couple airlines that have had no problem acquiring them over the past few years.

Is the E2 capable of operating with a 1,400 mile asl? Sure it is.

Could the Max 8 handle a strategy that entailed either a 450 and a 2,800 mile asl? Sure it could.

But it’d be the wrong aircraft for strategy that contemplated those ASL’s and it’d likely bankrupt who ever attempted such folly.

Selecting the right airframe is absolutely critical for long term success.

Running a 132 seat airframe head to head against at least 2 and as many as 4 airlines operating, in most cases, higher capacity aircraft with lower unit costs when, for most folks, price is king, on Canada’s highest density domestic and transborder routes is an impatient strategy.

I think you’ll find that only 4 of Porters 96 E2 departures on Saturday were on routes with no non-stop competitor.

Sometimes, it’s best to sit in the weeds and wait for the right time and space, and importantly, the right airframe.