Malaysia Airlines 777 - Missing

[complexintentions]

I'm gonna toss my hat into the office pool with my own theory: they headed west with a suicidal pilot at the controls. Those waypoints (VAMPI, GIVAL) are very familiar to anyone who's flown the area - someone was flying an airway, not just randomly.

Wouldn't be the first time. Not even the second.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SilkAir_Flight_185

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EgyptAir_Flight_990

Would also explain why no one wants to seem to talk about it, given the big taboo that suicide is with The Religion Of Peace.

It's getting harder to believe an airliner could be "lost" for the amount of time it has, without wilful intent.

What do I get if I win?

[AirFrame]

Michael McKay was checked out by several news services and vouched for by his oil company.

Sure. And they all vouch that he's a real person, with a real passport, who claims to have seen what he claims to have seen. There are no consequences for being wrong here, he had no witnesses to corroborate his story. They all believe he believes he is telling the truth. That doesn't make his account accurate.

In addition, yesterday he was due to meet Vietnamese officials.
I got a US Military contact in Vietnam to follow up on that lead.

So? He'll tell them the same thing. They'll agree that he is a real person with a real passport, who believes his account of the events.

For gods sake, Don't believe any of the sensational crap from CNN

Finally, something you're saying makes sense.

[AirFrame]

Since everyone else is throwing out wild speculation, here's my movie-plot theory:

One or more people with some specific training on some of the 777 systems got into the cockpit and killed or otherwise incapacitated the pilots. Once they were safely in the cockpit, all that's left is to:

1. lock the door
2. shut off the transponder
3. reset the flight computer/flight path for a route that turns it towards some vacant piece of ocean
4. pull the breakers for the emergency oxygen system
5. decompress the fuselage by breaking out a window

Everyone quickly succumbs to hypoxia, along with the terrorists if the intent was for it to be a suicide mission. If not, the terrorists pull on their parachutes and jump from an opened door before they're too far from land. The plane then flies on until it runs out of gas and disappears, and the world panics as nobody knows what happened, nobody can figure out what happened, and again the terrorists win.

Could have been a perfect plan, but for those meddling engineers... who designed in a background process that sends engine data back to Boeing every half hour. Some Boeing engineer working late notices the engine data coming in doesn't look right, calls a buddy in the air force, and eventually they dispatch an F117 with . Norris hiding in the bomb bay. . freefalls between the two aircraft, rips open a door, boards the aircraft and recovers it and the passengers just in time to save a pod of dolphins from the crash landing.

Can't be any worse than any other theory proposed so far...

[complexintentions]

The article that Boeingboy quotes is another reference to the ACARS engine data telemetry. flyinthebug also correctly describes how the system works: it's passive, with the satellite periodically interrogating the aircraft for data. Malaysia Airlines didn't subscribe to the service, so no data was transmitted. Even if did, it would be engine parameters, not navigation details. Still, the data could have helped in showing fuel flows and the like.

But that isn't the point. Apparently - the system was still interrogating the engines, and still receiving replies - the data handshake - hours later. The Malaysia officials initially "disputed" this, and RR has kept pretty quiet about it. But if it's true, then that aircraft was certainly not in pieces at the moment it disappeared.

I don't doubt the oil rig worker believes what he said is true. Doesn't make it true.

I don't believe in the catastrophic mid-air breakup whatsoever. Not when various comms systems are shut down 14 minutes apart. That's no brick wall.

B52 seems very invested in his pet theory, but it seems more like confirmation bias to me. I don't really claim to know but I certainly lean heavily towards unlawful interference - either suicide-by-crashing or hijacking as a distant second. The problem with the former theory is the conclusions will forever be deliberately muddied as the PTB cannot really live with that outcome (as evidenced by the fierce efforts to make sure Silkair and Egyptair were always deemed "inconclusive". Sure.)

But hey the investigation so far doesn't seem too convoluted does it?!

[complexintentions]

5. The "Imarsat" report conflicts with all the above evidence and does not add up. Imarsat for Privacy reasons are

refusing to provide more information. Malaysian airlines are refusing to give information which again, does not help the search.

The search should be along the flight plan track exactly where the transponder went off to the Vietnam coast, centered on the last observation by Michael McKay.

Hmmm. Just found this. Yes, it's CNN. So I guess it's all lies, but FWIW...

The revelation comes as CNN has learned that a classified analysis of electronic and satellite data suggests the flight likely crashed either in the Bay of Bengal or elsewhere in the Indian Ocean.

The analysis conducted by the United States and Malaysian governments may have narrowed the search area for the jetliner that vanished en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, leaving little trace of where it went or why. The analysis used radar data and satellite pings to calculate that the plane diverted to the west, across the Malayan peninsula, and then either flew in a northwest direction toward the Bay of Bengal or southwest into the Indian Ocean.

The theory builds on earlier revelations by U.S. officials that an automated reporting system on the airliner was pinging satellites for up to five hours after its last reported contact with air traffic controllers. Inmarsat, a satellite communications company, confirmed to CNN that automated signals were registered on its network.

Bolding mine. But they're probably just making it up anyway. Michael McKay is the ONLY, reliable witness, after all.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/14/world/asi ... index.html

It's all just speculation, until they find some wreckage. But there certainly seem to be some clues slowly coming in, now that the theories of the aircraft vanishing on the spot have subsided.

[GRK]

Random thinking but: It's clearly a hijack and a cover up by the Malaysian Authorities…There was a major breakdown in security and someone took a bribe or someone's kid was put in a job in a senior governmental position without any qualifications…it happens frequently in that country and there will be a serious loss of face once the truth gets out. Bribery and corruption are a daily occurrence in that country and I would say it's safe to bet it happened here. The struggle in the flight deck is becoming more and more obvious…the transponder being switched off (trying to switch it to the hijack code) was interrupted…the turn? HDG SEL for a turn back…the major altitude changes? A fight in the flight deck followed by a depressurization and then nothing…that airplane was now full of unconscious crew and passengers…it flew on quietly until it ran out of rule and now it's at there bottom of an ocean..the Malaysian authorities know what happened and are in the middle of a huge cover up to save face...

[boeingboy]

The thing that gets me thinking is that - say what you want to about them - but the US government does not just send a bunch of naval ships and aircraft into a search zone that's hell and gone from the original flight path or disappearance point just for Saturday night kicks.

They know something. It could be completely plausible that they have good intel or maybe even pics that lead them there and they just don't want the world knowing what kind of military technology they have.

[complexintentions]

Just finished watching the live briefing by the Malaysian Prime Minister. According to him they have confirmed:

-ACARS was "switched off" (his words) first, then shortly thereafter the transponder was also switched off;
-the Malaysian military primary radar target WAS MH370;
-last contact with MH370 was via satellite at 8:11am Malaysia time (6 hours 50 min after last radar return!!);
-the search will be wound down in the South China Sea and ramped up in two areas: northwest corridor in the Andaman Sea (Kazakhstan to Thailand!) and a southwest corridor in the Indian Ocean (Indonesia).

Also stated these finding were corroborated by separate agencies analyzing the same data. (FAA, NTSB, AAIB, Malaysian aviation authorities).

I'm prepared to up my ante into the office pool...

[shabadoo]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/d ... eath-plane

[GyvAir]

Satellite data did not provide a precise location, but Razak said the last signal came along a southern flight corridor from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean or along "a northern corridor stretching from border of Kazakstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand."

Anybody tech-savy enough to explain why investigators are able to narrow it down to a general northerly or southerly flightpath from the satellite pings, but not determine which, even as it flew presumably thousands of miles in whichever direction it did?

[complexintentions]

From what I understand of the data from the engine telemetry, all they received was a simple digital "handshake" periodically. No flight information, no engine parameter information. The fact of the connection so long after the flight lost normal comms is why they know it was still flying (corroborated by the Malaysian primary radar returns). But the aircraft wasn't broadcasting any location data whatsoever to my knowledge. The explanation I read was that they are attempting to triangulate the position, I assume on the timing, strength of the transmissions, and as best they're able - the direction of the transmissions. They'd have to compare the received signals to do this and I believe it's an unprecedented way of attempting to locate an aircraft.

I would equate it to trying to locate someone shouting "Marco" to your "Polo" once an hour while running away from you at 450kts with an unknown destination. After doing that for several hours, the . goes silent. Not a lot of data points to go on, hence the wide search areas. I would guess the handshakes stopped at about the point where they decided they would split the search north and south.

All rampant speculation, of course!

[GyvAir]

I suppose if the pings were picked up only by satellite(s) in geostationary orbit above the equator, they could surmise that if the signal strengths decreased proportionately for all the satellites that picked up the signal that the source had to be moving north or south. If the signal increased strength for one satellite and lost strength to another, that would indicate an east/west movement.

[Colonel Sanders]

If you want a good laugh, go back and re-read
this thread from the beginning. I like this gem:

Any creeping cracks or fatigue signs after the wingtip repair could have lead to a catastrophic failure of wing components?

Yeah, that's why there's no debris where the
aircraft was, when the xponder went off

[GyvAir]

Inmarsat coverage, I-3 and I-4.
I gather from a little reading that depending on service type and equipment installed on the aircraft, the ACARS could use either just I-3 or I-3 plus I-4 satellite systems.

[ross1]

from boeing boy..."The thing that gets me thinking is that - say what you want to about them - but the US government does not just send a bunch of naval ships and aircraft into a search zone that's hell and gone from the original flight path or disappearance point just for Saturday night kicks.

They know something. It could be completely plausible that they have good intel or maybe even pics that lead them there and they just don't want the world knowing what kind of military technology they have. "

I'm certainly no expert but seems to me that any U.S. Navy ships in the Indian Ocean are targets for someone. Maybe a carrier for example...I am reminded of Iran Air 655 which was assumed to be a threat. Also seems to me that "the terrorists" are quick to take responsiblity/credit for successful attacks but no one has spoken up over what may be a botched attempt.

RB

[kev994]

I maintain my assertion from earlier that what Michael McKay saw was the planet Jupiter appearing and disappearing from behind a distant cloud. The information that he provides in his letter correlates very well with where the planet was in the sky at that time and date. It is much brighter than any star, somewhat yellow in colour, and could easily be mistaken for an aircraft, in flames or otherwise.

Seems logical to me, I've done searches near Hudson Bay, really dark and no horizon, spotters more than once have wanted to chase a planet thinking it was a camp fire. They can be really bright when there are no lights around b

[Castorero]

The truth lies in one of the above posts somewhere.
The sad fact is that it has not ended well for a lot of people and that is very distressing given the type of aircraft involved.

Will we ever know what really happened? Will the aircraft be found safe and sound somewhere?

I suspect not, on both counts.

My theory is that the aircraft was taker over via satellite and "droned" to its final destination.

Why and by whom, you may well ask? Besides the US, who else has the technology to achieve such an easy feat?

I put my money on Vladimir, diverting the world's attention from his pathetic attempt to recobble the old Empire piece by piece to follow in the footsteps of Napoleon, Benito, and Adolph.

Far fetched ? Not in the world I live in.

Pass the Largactil...Please

[flyinthebug]

Just finished watching the live briefing by the Malaysian Prime Minister. According to him they have confirmed:

-ACARS was "switched off" (his words) first, then shortly thereafter the transponder was also switched off;
-the Malaysian military primary radar target WAS MH370;
-last contact with MH370 was via satellite at 8:11am Malaysia time (6 hours 50 min after last radar return!!);
-the search will be wound down in the South China Sea and ramped up in two areas: northwest corridor in the Andaman Sea (Kazakhstan to Thailand!) and a southwest corridor in the Indian Ocean (Indonesia).

Also stated these finding were corroborated by separate agencies analyzing the same data. (FAA, NTSB, AAIB, Malaysian aviation authorities).

I'm prepared to up my ante into the office pool...

Just an addition to your post complexintentions. This is now confirmed as a highjacked aircraft. So much for the oil rig worker and his eye witness account?

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/malaysian-plan ... 07157.html

[1000 HP]

I admit to not having read all the posts here. So maybe this has been suggested already. But hopefully the missing folks families tried the "find my iPhone" thing asap. Just a thought.

I fly on the 777 all the time. It makes a guy worry about those mechanical or structural failure scenarios.

[Gilles Hudicourt]

I'm certainly no expert but seems to me that any U.S. Navy ships in the Indian Ocean are targets for someone. Maybe a carrier for example...I am reminded of Iran Air 655 which was assumed to be a threat.
RB

You are taking the fact that a trigger-happy Frigate captain shot down an Airliner full of innocent passengers because he "felt" his ship was being threatened as an example of airliners being used to attack war ships ?

The only person who had such thoughts in the example above, was captain William C. Rogers III, the one who ordered that the aircraft be shot down and to whom President Bush Sr awarded a decoration......

[Colonel Sanders]

Are you referring to the USS Cole?

[spaner]

Anybody tech-savy enough to explain why investigators are able to narrow it down to a general northerly or southerly flightpath from the satellite pings, but not determine which, even as it flew presumably thousands of miles in whichever direction it did?

5-pingN-Sroute.JPG (24.72 KiB) Viewed 1654 times

This is not a case of Wag the Dog, nobody is that good.
Catastrophic fire and crew incapacitation fills the gaps just fine.

Doubtfull that anyone will ever know more than they did the day after.

[sstaurus]

Random thinking but: It's clearly a hijack and a cover up by the Malaysian Authorities…There was a major breakdown in security and someone took a bribe or someone's kid was put in a job in a senior governmental position without any qualifications…it happens frequently in that country and there will be a serious loss of face once the truth gets out. Bribery and corruption are a daily occurrence in that country and I would say it's safe to bet it happened here. The struggle in the flight deck is becoming more and more obvious…the transponder being switched off (trying to switch it to the hijack code) was interrupted…the turn? HDG SEL for a turn back…the major altitude changes? A fight in the flight deck followed by a depressurization and then nothing…that airplane was now full of unconscious crew and passengers…it flew on quietly until it ran out of rule and now it's at there bottom of an ocean..the Malaysian authorities know what happened and are in the middle of a huge cover up to save face...

Parts of this theory resonate to me. Whether caused by a struggle and a 3rd party, or just the pilots themselves, it would definitely need to be someone with intimate knowledge of a 777 to shutoff the Xpdr and ACARS.

[lownslow]

it would definitely need to be someone with intimate knowledge of a 777 to shutoff the Xpdr and ACARS.

Why couldn't a fire do those things? Maybe not even a fire but something running way hotter than it should and slowly damaging the electrical system.

LnS.

[ross1]

Hi Gilles..."You are taking the fact that a trigger-happy Frigate captain shot down an Airliner full of innocent passengers because he "felt" his ship was being threatened as an example of airliners being used to attack war ships ?"

Kamikaze is not new.

hypothetical scenario... nonresponsive airliner (230 pax and crew) pointed at a U.S. Navy carrier (crew of 3200 plus)..low alt, high speed, in the dark, reported missing hours earlier.... With all the should'a, could'a, would'a after 9/11, I'm thinking that a shootdown is a very viable, although absolutely last, defensive response.

...we will never know.
RB