Kenn Borek Antarctic Cause/Speculation Thread

[Sulako]

*IF* it was CFIT, that doesn't make it any less tragic. Look up Just Curious's posts and you'll see how much he gave to the community. I'm not posting this toward any particular poster, it's just an observation. I'm still in mourning.

[Roar]

TSB has released some pictures of the accident site. Here is the link.
http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/enquetes-inves ... 3f0011.asp

Interesting how flat the accident site looks in Picture #1 as opposed to Picture #3

[old_man]

Interesting how flat the accident site looks in Picture #1 as opposed to Picture #3

Classic mountain flying illusion. The ridge line you see in #1 is not necessarily parallel with the horizon. Tilt you computer screen to the right to make the wisps of cirrus clouds parallel with the horizon and that maybe what it might look like. Just a guess though as to what the correct orientation might be. The mountains can be most tricky.

[C-FABH]

Interesting how flat the accident site looks in Picture #1 as opposed to Picture #3

Classic mountain flying illusion. The ridge line you see in #1 is not necessarily parallel with the horizon. Tilt you computer screen to the right to make the wisps of cirrus clouds parallel with the horizon and that maybe what it might look like. Just a guess though as to what the correct orientation might be. The mountains can be most tricky.

Another consideration is that the viewfinder of the camera is not necessarily level with the horizon. It's at least 15 degrees off in Picture #3. Though I agree it looks flat.

[MUSKEG]

It appears to me that the pics were taken from most likely a helicopter. If so it was probably in a level and stable flight condition. Would the photographer then have not been in a level configuration. Sure you could tilt the camera but why?

[stallie]

Pic three almost certainly taken from the ground. Look at the footsteps.

Given the steepness of the slope, it's likely the photographer was roped up. There are also what appears to be rope drag marks mid left centre foreground.

I'm pretty sure that pic 1 needs to be rotated by about 35-40 degrees to the right. The clouds are one clue, but also the angle of the sun, and the steepness in pic three. If anyone can post the image's exif data (I'm on an ipad and can't read it) and get the time of day, I can get the altitude and azimuth of the sun. it shoudl correlate roughly with the steepness of the snow slope from the shadows and the snow cloud lower left.

[Lost in Saigon]

There is no EXIF data



10 degree rotation








5 degree rotation

[stallie]

I still can't correlate the position of the reported EPIRB lat/Lon as shown on a map with that of the images.

If the map lat/Lon was correct, then the other side of the spur should be dropping steeply into the neve - instead we have pic 1 showing a broad continuous slope under the summit of the mountain.

If, however, the site was on the faint spur to the right of the spur running N from the last digit in "3400" contour height label in the following map that LostinSaigon made then that seems to correlate better as you have the broad uniform slope from the summit ridge. Some tweaks of contrast in photoshop show that the slope is pretty uniform to the right of shot. I think it was midway tween the last zero in 3400 and the first 4 in 4480. This position also correlates better with the 13000'/3950m altitude.


This could be explained by an error in lat/lon or it may be that the maps are inaccurate (but I don't think that inaccurate). I haven't used this particular map in anger, but have used several others in Antarctica that left a lot to be desired in terms of accuracy....

Or it could be a satellite calculated fix without the GPS position? But surely KB would have 406 GPS equipped beacons?

Edit - just to nip anything in the bud there, I doubt that any map error - even if true and I don't think it is to that extent - would have changed the outcome if they were heading up the Beardmore. The wreckage would have just been further across. The weather was certainly not sightseeing weather.

[howard40]

Are the marks in the snow from a safety rope etc? from the fella walking out from the heli to the wreck?
it sure is steep .Is there a snow pack mark indicating first contact a bit back of the twin otter in the larger perspective photos?

[xsbank]

It looks like he just drove 'er straight in, didn't slow, didn't see anything. Maybe he was still IMC.

Jeez JC, we miss you.

[Siddley Hawker]

Yeah xs, looks like they never knew what hit 'em.

[bigsky]

 3 still unrecovered from Antarctica crash



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/c ... -1.1927813


Hard decision to make.

[leftoftrack]

Where is borek in this? The company put those pilots there can they not afford to go get them? I'd hate to work for someone who refused to come get me if the worst happened

[Colonel Sanders]

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/10/06 ... cials-say/

[CFR]

Trying to recover the bodies from nearly 13000 feet in the Antarctic on the side of a mountain, is not an easy task. There is a very real risk of losing more lives in the attempt and that has to be factored into any decision. This is the reason that rarely are bodies of climbers who die on Everest, ever recovered (I realize that most are much higher than this accident site). http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/reclaiming ... -1.1206082

From my personal and highly biased point of view, I would not want anyone to risk their lives to recover the vessel that housed "me" once I am no longer in residence.

[Doc]

Trying to recover the bodies from nearly 13000 feet in the Antarctic on the side of a mountain, is not an easy task. There is a very real risk of losing more lives in the attempt and that has to be factored into any decision. This is the reason that rarely are bodies of climbers who die on Everest, ever recovered (I realize that most are much higher than this accident site). http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/reclaiming ... -1.1206082

From my personal and highly biased point of view, I would not want anyone to risk their lives to recover the vessel that housed "me" once I am no longer in residence.

Totally agree with CFR on this. Let them rest where they lie. That's what I'd want. Sure it's lower than Everest, but the logistics are no simpler. Nothing is to be gained by taking risks, that in the final analysis will have no change on reality. Miss you Bob.

[iflyforpie]

I will risk nothing to save what has already been lost.

Let them rest. Godspeed, gentlemen.

[Rowdy]

Perhaps further recovery operations may show new evidence that will help determine factors that contributed to this accident.

I for one would like to see our friends and peers recovered and given proper treatment and burial, and in hopes that the true cause and not some BS speculation is given as reason for this tragedy.

I'm wondering if the seuqestration and now shut down of government in the US will have a major impact on the antarctic program this year, including recovery and the borek operations on the ice..

[Doc]

Perhaps further recovery operations may show new evidence that will help determine factors that contributed to this accident.

I for one would like to see our friends and peers recovered and given proper treatment and burial, and in hopes that the true cause and not some BS speculation is given as reason for this tragedy.

I'm wondering if the seuqestration and now shut down of government in the US will have a major impact on the antarctic program this year, including recovery and the borek operations on the ice..

What do you think we will learn here, Rowdy? Certainly nothing worth disturbing their final resting sight, or the cost and danger of the operation. Let them be bud, it's over.

[grimey]

What do you think we will learn here, Rowdy? Certainly nothing worth disturbing their final resting sight, or the cost and danger of the operation. Let them be bud, it's over.

Yea. If someone approaches the families with a credible plan to repatriate their bodies, and they volunteer to do it, fine, let them try with the families' permission. But there are hundreds of thousands of war graves overseas in Europe because the logistics of repatriating all of them at the time was just too daunting. This is the same, but with fewer dead and a far higher cost, in money and possibly in more lives.

The money used on a recovery mission would be far better spent, IMO, on a scholarship or some other program for young pilots, or a proper memorial in Canada or at one of the stations in Antartica.

The chances of learning anything new from the wreckage are probably pretty low. I'm not trying to speak ill of the dead, but I'd be shocked if the root cause was something that hadn't occurred before.

[flyinthebug]

If it were me on that mountain, I wouldn't want a single person (volunteer or otherwise) to risk their lives trying to recover my former body. As Doc said, its over.

I empathize with your feelings Rowdy and knowing Bob as well as you and I both did, its the personal "affect" of this that is making you feel this strongly. I sincerely don't believe we will find anything on that aircraft that will come as a surprise to anyone.

We all miss Bob and he was a great guy...not to mention his FO and engineer onboard all had friends and family that miss them too. I say leave them to rest in peace where they came to rest.

To those that knew Bob...we know he wouldn't have minded having a DHC6 as his final resting place.

God Speed my friend.

Fly safe all.

[leftoftrack]

The story doesn't indicate that there is danger in recovering the body's. the story indicates that their is no one in charge of leading the expedition. New Zealand is SAR not recovery. TSB without sending anyone has determined that it is unsafe. Which leaves no one to lead the expedition. I'm not saying this is strictly a financial decision but it has not indicated anywhere that this decision is based on personal saftey, other than from a government agency who has never operated on that continent. I garenty you that if you asked Bob or Mike or Perry Not one of them would want to have a twin otter as their coffin.

[Doc]

The story doesn't indicate that there is danger in recovering the body's. the story indicates that their is no one in charge of leading the expedition. New Zealand is SAR not recovery. TSB without sending anyone has determined that it is unsafe. Which leaves no one to lead the expedition. I'm not saying this is strictly a financial decision but it has not indicated anywhere that this decision is based on personal saftey, other than from a government agency who has never operated on that continent. I garenty you that if you asked Bob or Mike or Perry Not one of them would want to have a twin otter as their coffin.

You used the word "expedition" a couple of times there. To think an expedition up the side of a mountain in Antarctica would not involve more than considerable danger, would indeed be folly.
Keep in mind that Bob, Mike and Perry are no longer "in residence", leaving their bodies as they rest, may be the most respectful route to take.
Their final resting place will forever be a beacon to those who operate in the area.

[ettw]

I've seen the site and I can say with a very high level of confidence that there is a high level of risk to those persons who would be involved in the recovery. Avalanche seemed to be the rescue crews biggest concern last year.

If I were the one making the decision, I would respectfully look the family members in the eye and apologize but make it clear that I was not prepared to risk anyone else's lives to recover their loved ones.

Respectfully.

ETTW

[Doc]

If I were the one making the decision, I would respectfully look the family members in the eye and apologize but make it clear that I was not prepared to risk anyone else's lives to recover their loved ones.

Respectfully.

ETTW

Well said.