New CPA and flowthrough to Air Canada?

[Brize]

I think the above post accurately summarizes things unfolding in the near future.
Beyond that, I wouldn't expect any real information for at least another week and a half. APLA does things a little differently than ACPA.

[B757FO]

[quote="rudder]

Next 9 years will see approximately 1000 age 65 mandatory retirements at AC plus growth hiring estimated at 600. That equals 1600 potential vacancies.

Even a 50% flow plus planned retirements at Jazz would remove well over 2/3rds of the current Jazz seniority list over the next 9 years.

Devil is always in the details but the initiative appears to be intended to move as many current Jazz pilots off the property as possible. Flow with AC or not, Jazz's biggest problem will not be surplus pilots it will be finding pilots to replace the ones that leave.[/quote]

Rudder,
You will be facing the same problem that we will have at encore. Keeping people on the property. At first when I read the release I was happy for Jazz but then I saw the fleet reduction. They have mitigated it by achieving a flow agreement is how I read it plus the retirements? Did I misread but where did the lift and seats go in 2020 and 2025? I wish my Jazz buddies the best and hope your get the issues resolved on your contract. At least you can breathe easier now! Congrats Jazz.

[av8ts]

I can only see a flow through to AC being bottom of the list. Why would ACPA agree to anything more, which means the only pilots that will be taking advantage of it are junior Jazz pilots that were applying anyway.

[Stinky]

I can only see a flow through to AC being bottom of the list. Why would ACPA agree to anything more, which means the only pilots that will be taking advantage of it are junior Jazz pilots that were applying anyway.

My bet is that all F/O's and junior captains will choose to flow. If you're facing a downgrade or right seat for life job, why wouldn't you.
I feel bad for the junior captains in single income households, it'll be a tough few years.
When's the next upgrade class at Jazz? I think the answer is 2030 or so.

[Fanblade]

Just because they would be new hires at AC doesn't mean they didn't negotiate severance from Chorus.

It's in both AC and Chorus's best interest to create a situation that encourages tenured employees to retire or flow through.

I can't imagine this reality wasn't leveraged by the Jazz pilots.

Even though it is absolutely none of my business?

Hope you guys did really well. If you did? Well done playing the cards you had in your hand.

[TheStig]

I can only see a flow through to AC being bottom of the list. Why would ACPA agree to anything more, which means the only pilots that will be taking advantage of it are junior Jazz pilots that were applying anyway.

There are a lot of factors other than BOTL, from what I've read here, none of them have been disclosed. I wouldn't assume that it's only junior pilots at Jazz interested (or targeted) for flow through. I've talked to Captains at Jazz who would like to be a mainline, but as mentioned its all about the details. Every pilot at Jazz has their own ambitions and interests, from my experience, we can expect to see lots of little incentives aimed at various groups.

I hope that the group is happy with the agreement, it certainly isn't a home run, but it doesn't appear to be all doom and gloom either, it's nice to see the two airlines working as partners to renew the Jazz fleet. The switch away from the 'cost-plus' arrangement is enormous, and should help Jazz focus on becoming more cost sensitive and competitive as an organization in the future.

[loopa]

That's even worse. I was under the impression that it was 700 new hires in addition to 500 retirements.

Next 9 years will see approximately 1000 age 65 mandatory retirements at AC plus growth hiring estimated at 600. That equals 1600 potential vacancies.

Even a 50% flow plus planned retirements at Jazz would remove well over 2/3rds of the current Jazz seniority list over the next 9 years.

Devil is always in the details but the initiative appears to be intended to move as many current Jazz pilots off the property as possible. Flow with AC or not, Jazz's biggest problem will not be surplus pilots it will be finding pilots to replace the ones that leave.

Thank you for more accurate numbers. I had 1200 in mind, you have 1600 figuratively as fact.

I am still curious if the Jazz pilot's will have a spot at AC pending psych/cog/medical since that seems to be a big part of the AC hiring procedures. Considering none of the jazz pilot's have gone through the psych/cog/ac medical (which is different than the jazz medical), I wonder if that is a caveat somehow to being flowed through? If not I'd be curious as to what reasoning they would provide for why Jazz pilot's would be exempt from that. Especially since I would like to believe that those three steps have caused numerous PFO's to candidates in the past, Jazz included.

Either way, good news to the ones affected positively.

[rxl]

That's even worse. I was under the impression that it was 700 new hires in addition to 500 retirements.

Next 9 years will see approximately 1000 age 65 mandatory retirements at AC plus growth hiring estimated at 600. That equals 1600 potential vacancies.

Even a 50% flow plus planned retirements at Jazz would remove well over 2/3rds of the current Jazz seniority list over the next 9 years.

Devil is always in the details but the initiative appears to be intended to move as many current Jazz pilots off the property as possible. Flow with AC or not, Jazz's biggest problem will not be surplus pilots it will be finding pilots to replace the ones that leave.

The pilots that "flow through" will not be replaced - otherwise where will the cost savings for Jazz mentioned by Ms. Mahody related to the flow through come from? Makes no sense from a Jazz perspective to facilitate a mass exodus and then have to turn around and train new hire replacements.
There is more to this story.

[ggofp]

you give up your defined benefit pension plan to flow to mainline. the newhire behind you will get defined contribution . That in nutshell is the crux of the matter!

[Canadian Skyhawk]

When I read the release, what jumps right off the page is a reduction in aircraft and a migration towards turboprops. This in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing, but hasn't anyone noticed the accompanying numbers? "The up-gauging of aircraft results in a reduction of seat capacity of less than 4% by 2020, and is further reduced by less than 9% by 2025". This blew me away.

In ABSOLUTE terms, Canada's passenger air traffic (RPK - Revenue Passenger Kilometres) is expected to increase at a CAGR of 2.7% between 2013 and 2033 according to Embraer's latest outlook, which means that by 2025 it will have grown by a total of 34%. In the same time frame, Jazz's seat capacity will decline by a total of 13%. This is SEAT CAPACITY on more, shorter distance turboprop aircraft, therefore RPK decline will likely be greater than 13%. Translation: The Canadian pie will grow by 34%, while Jazz's slice will decline by 13% (likely more). In RELATIVE terms, this means that Jazz will be one third smaller company within the Canadian airline industry by 2025.

The writing has been on the wall for years. AC wants and needs to lower operating costs, the current raison d'être of Georgian, Sky Reg and EVAS, not to mention Rouge. Jazz had no choice but to shrink or lower its costs. Guess what? It's going to do both. Jazz and AC will try to put as much positive spin on this as possible, but at the end of the day, numbers talk and bullshit walks: Jazz is shrinking, both in absolute and relative terms.

I hope all the best for current Jazz pilots. As others have said regarding them, the devil will be in the details. But Jazz pilots are now officially working for a shrinking company, with management having accepted to let others do some of its flying in the future (They may not have had any choice). I'm not sure it'll be a fun place to work at.

We don't know who will pick up the slack from Jazz, but my bet is with the three other AC regionals, and maybe even a new one. There will likely be a lot more progression for pilots there.

Safe flying!

[loopa]

We don't know who will pick up the slack from Jazz, but my bet is with the three other AC regionals, and maybe even a new one. There will likely be a lot more progression for pilots there.

Safe flying!

Very good post. Don't mean to go off topic, but it kind of starts a new debate where Jetlines and Jetnaked will take place with this increase in RPK with a shrinking Jazz...

The way I see it, if Jetlines and Jetnaked can do it for cheap like Sky Regional/Georgian/EVAS... AC will have no problem setting up a CPA deal with either or both of those two operators.

Anything to compete with Encore's regional expansion.

Interesting times, Encore expanding, Jazz shrinking, increase in regional air travel demand by 2033... Kind makes it an obvious move for anyone with millions of dollars looking to start an ULC to go after a CPA deal with AC doesn't it?

[TrailerParkBoy]

We don't know who will pick up the slack from Jazz, but my bet is with the three other AC regionals, and maybe even a new one. There will likely be a lot more progression for pilots there.

Safe flying!

Very good post. Don't mean to go off topic, but it kind of starts a new debate where Jetlines and Jetnaked will take place with this increase in RPK with a shrinking Jazz...

The way I see it, if Jetlines and Jetnaked can do it for cheap like Sky Regional/Georgian/EVAS... AC will have no problem setting up a CPA deal with either or both of those two operators.

Anything to compete with Encore's regional expansion.

Interesting times, Encore expanding, Jazz shrinking, increase in regional air travel demand by 2033... Kind makes it an obvious move for anyone with millions of dollars looking to start an ULC to go after a CPA deal with AC doesn't it?

loopa...Do you understand the CPA at AC?
...you need to read carefully. Jazz will be carrying at least the same number of passengers in 11 years, just in larger aircraft, so NOT shrinking. The Dash 8-1 are old today, and the CRJ200 are soon to be!
...anyone cheering on a cheap airline to do AC CPA has to give their head a shake!
...jazz has paved the way for quality regional pilot carreer in North America. Its up to you to continue the growth in regionals instead of helping the race to the bottom! I won't be here to see it! You will!

[CanadianEh]

+1 trailerparkboy

[flyloose]

Just part of AC's over all fleet up gauging strategy..reduce CASM by operating larger A/C with more seats. Depending on the amount of mainline/rouge ASM growth, we will see a corresponding ASM expansion at the feed level. This is a must as you can't fill widebodies to all over the world without the feed, obviously. The second part of the lowering cost strategy is regional diversification. So the additional flying will be put out to tender. I don't know any details of the pilot TA, but I do wish the guys all the best and hope they fared out OK.

[Black Cat]

MONTREAL—Air Canada affiliate Jazz Aviation has a tentative, 11-year labour agreement with its pilots association that will run until Dec. 31, 2025, if ratified by the union’s members.

The proposed contract is being presented as a key element in a revised commercial arrangement with Air Canada, which buys most of the seating capacity on Jazz planes to carry passengers between the main hubs and other cities.

Jazz pilots in tentative 11-year deal, seen as key to new Air Canada deal


So...are we really in the drivers seat? Multiple statements lauding to the new amended and extended TA hinging on ratification of the pilots TA. Are they blowing smoke saying we actually have some say?

I truly BELIVE there will be some gems in this TA and I trust ALPA has done good by us. On the slim chance they had there arm twisted I'm assuming a bunch of threats of why we "have" to accept this or Ac walks away in 2020. For me, if there is NOTHING in it for us or it's a major hit to our industry...the Pho'Ket. ComAir 2.0 it is. We have skills and will find work elsewhere. JM2cents.

[Fanblade]

Kind makes it an obvious move for anyone with millions of dollars looking to start an ULC to go after a CPA deal with AC doesn't it?

No problem at all so long as they don't operate jets larger than 90 seats with 76 seats in them or Q's with more than 80 seats.

Everything below that line is fair game for anybody.

[rxl]

Either way, good news to the ones affected positively.

For those that may be positively affected, absolutely ... great for them ...
BUT, how is the loss of 500 or 600 good, high quality pilot jobs at Jazz to the lowest bidder good news for the industry as a whole?

[rxl]

Kind makes it an obvious move for anyone with millions of dollars looking to start an ULC to go after a CPA deal with AC doesn't it?

No problem at all so long as they don't operate jets larger than 90 seats with 76 seats in them or Q's with more than 80 seats.

Everything below that line is fair game for anybody.

So it's to hell with anyone on the "regional" side of that scope line.
Great.

[loopa]

We don't know who will pick up the slack from Jazz, but my bet is with the three other AC regionals, and maybe even a new one. There will likely be a lot more progression for pilots there.

Safe flying!

Very good post. Don't mean to go off topic, but it kind of starts a new debate where Jetlines and Jetnaked will take place with this increase in RPK with a shrinking Jazz...

The way I see it, if Jetlines and Jetnaked can do it for cheap like Sky Regional/Georgian/EVAS... AC will have no problem setting up a CPA deal with either or both of those two operators.

Anything to compete with Encore's regional expansion.

Interesting times, Encore expanding, Jazz shrinking, increase in regional air travel demand by 2033... Kind makes it an obvious move for anyone with millions of dollars looking to start an ULC to go after a CPA deal with AC doesn't it?

loopa...Do you understand the CPA at AC?
...you need to read carefully. Jazz will be carrying at least the same number of passengers in 11 years, just in larger aircraft, so NOT shrinking. The Dash 8-1 are old today, and the CRJ200 are soon to be!
...anyone cheering on a cheap airline to do AC CPA has to give their head a shake!
...jazz has paved the way for quality regional pilot carreer in North America. Its up to you to continue the growth in regionals instead of helping the race to the bottom! I won't be here to see it! You will!

Thanks for your insight. I hope you're not assuming that I'm cheering on cheap airlines doing CPA's, just calling my bets on how that is presently a viable option for any airline wishing to fill that demand.

What I understand is that by 2025, Jazz will have 86 planes, and pilot's that will no longer be making the high salaries that they are today at Jazz.

This has met AC's need for cheaper operations. Absolutely it will allow Jazz to still operate, but it won't be the Jazz that we all know it to be any more. About the only incentive involved with going to Jazz is going to be the flow through to AC. Which I think everyone has already talked about, the devil is in the agreement. Personally I believe devils like having to pass a psych/cog/ac medical like everyone else in order to qualify for a job at AC. Carry YOS? One seniority List? How will things like that work for a 20 year Jazz Pilot now all of a sudden sliding across all the year 15+ AC pilot's who will have the luxuries of their seniority taken away, etc.

I still stick to the belief that Jazz is ultimately a sinking ship, and come 2021-2030 you will see either a) a completely new Jazz that has joined the race to the bottom or b) a completely new airline like Jetlines or the likes doing CPA flying like the Colgan's, Skywests, etc are in the states when they realize that they don't have a ULC market to fight for in Canada unless it is supported by big dogs like CPA flying for AC.

Either way, good news to the ones affected positively.

For those that may be positively affected, absolutely ... great for them ...
BUT, how is the loss of 500 or 600 good, high quality pilot jobs at Jazz to the lowest bidder good news for the industry as a whole?

Well by the sounds of it there will be more than enough vacancies for all Jazz pilot's to flow through, as I was stood corrected in my analogy further up in this thread.

1600 vacancies in 10 years, retirements at Jazz, everyone at Jazz get's a spot at AC. Wonder what this means for any outside hires going to AC ... Jazz just took away any viable spot for the 703/704 guy looking to move on.

Basically Encore is the route to WJ. Jazz is the route to AC. Choose wisely!

[rxl]

Yeah yeah, "Flow through blah, blah, blah".
The fact is 500 or 600, maybe more, really good jobs are going to be removed from the industry to be replaced with what?

[CanadianEh]

@loopa

You are completely naive if you think every single jazz pilot will flow through to Air Canada

[TrailerParkBoy]

@loopa

Jazz is only sinking if the water level drops due to like-minded pilots like you keep taking jobs at cheap companies like Sky Regional, Georgian and like you say, eventually Jetlines.

Jazz has a pension, a strong union, and probably 1200 or more pilots who dont want to flow to AC and just want to stay at jazz!

[countryhick]

Folks, the numbers in the press release are MINIMUM # of frames that are guaranteed to be at Jazz in 2020 & 2025. There may be more, but there will not be less. If the plan is to migrate Jazz high price pilots, the deal better be good, or it will simply not work.

A good analogy is AC has a 10 step plan, this is step 2.....lots of shoes to drop yet!!

[rudder]

If the pilot TA is ratified and the AC/CHR CPA extension is consummated, watch for an RFP from AC for approximately 24 75 seat jets.

If CHR is not the successful bidder on that RFP, then the ones forecasting the slow decline of Jazz will have it mostly correct.

[av8ts]

I may have been wrong about who flows to AC. Latest rumor is minimum 15 years with Jazz to take advantage of the Mobility Agreement. BOL with some pay protection