Will Flair/Sunwing survive

[co-joe]

TUI's whole business model (WRT airlines) hinges on being able to move capacity back and forth between Canada and the EU. Sunwing is what allows them to do that. If TUI doesn't make it through the wuhan depression, then neither will any of their companies, but if anything they have a better position to move forward with than anyone due to being less expensive than AC or WS vacations, and now that TS and Swoosh for that matter won't be competing they may even come out of this on a better footing than they went in.

Sunwing is 49% owned by TUI - not completely, and they don't fly passengers between Europe and Canada. There are obviously both pitfalls and rewards in this arrangement.

I said they move "capacity" between the EU and Canada, the seats, not the bums in the seats.

[co-joe]

TUI's whole business model (WRT airlines) hinges on being able to move capacity back and forth between Canada and the EU. Sunwing is what allows them to do that. If TUI doesn't make it through the wuhan depression, then neither will any of their companies, but if anything they have a better position to move forward with than anyone due to being less expensive than AC or WS vacations, and now that TS and Swoosh for that matter won't be competing they may even come out of this on a better footing than they went in.

Last I checked, TUI operated about 150 aircraft in Europe through wholly owned companies. They also owned 19% of Air Berlin, Germany's second largest airline at the time.
TUI owned airlines never sent more than 20 to 25 aircraft to Sunwing in the winter. Sunwing brings perhaps a little over 30 aircraft from Europe, but some come from Czech TravelService, which has nothing to do with TUI.

So its a little exaggerated to claim that their "whole business model" was based on swapping aircraft (and pilots) with Sunwing. It certainly helped though. The greatest financial advantage Sunwing gained from the TUI partnership is access to TUI's purchasing and negotiating power with hotels down south

Maybe a bit of an exaggeration, but it is one of the things that gives them a cost advantage over their domestic competition. Your company could be bigger in winter and then lay off every summer but then your training costs would be through the roof, and you'd suffer from retention problems (in a Feb 2020 world...the old normal, in the new normal we'd all come to work for a bag of rice and some dirty water). By moving "capacity" ie aircraft and crews back and forth as demand changes SW can have a much larger fleet ready to capitalise on a cyclical market.

Anyway, the question was if they will survive, and my bet is that Sunwing is in a good position to come back strong and employ Canadian pilots wherever the demand is. Personally I hope we all survive the post wuhan shit show, but it's going to be tough.