Recession

[pilotguy53]

If, or should I say when, recession hits, the ones that got hired recently within the last year or so are gonna get hit hard. Jazz will always have air canada, but Porter doesnt have anybody, watch their expansion turn into reduction overnight. Boys n gals, if you have a seat with a decent seniority, better hold on to that cause you have no idea whats coming. Porter guys, better get a union before it s too late, and for God's sake, get rid of that pilot-grooming business going on. Cant say i didnt warn ya

DOOM AND GLOOM! World is going to end. The aliens are coming! Everyone quit Porter right now so you don't get slammed by the recession.

I don’t think anyone is saying quit, I think right now there is risk in moving to a new company, Jazz CEO is literally planning, quite likely hoping for a recession. Also, if you don’t see it coming, you are either blind or too young to have seen the thing coming.
The world banking authorities are trying to creat one to get inflation down, problem is, they always go too far and it’s always worse than predicted. Hang on to your seat, I would definitely be thinking about numbers below me wherever I am right now.
I’ve seen some Jazz guys with 8 years leave for Porter lately, each time I think to myself, you’re nuts!

You're right, sorry. I was sassy. I just think it's hard to predict things this time around, especially seeing how fragile our economy is. But we have also been surprised in loads of cases as well. I'm hesitant to use past indicators.

[8895]

They’ll be fine, tons of cash to weather the storm. WJ keeps moving out of the eastern market faster and faster simply allowing for more marketshare for porter as well. Throw in the fact that everyone in economy hates AC and flair is super unreliable, I think as long as they can handle the shorter to mid term challenges that a recession would pose (if it FINALLY does ever happen?) there’s nothing to worry about. Loads have been good and simply getting better as of late.

Also why am I not surprised to see the entitled/off his meds boomer from jazz back in another porter thread

[PRM1]

They’ll be fine, tons of cash to weather the storm. WJ keeps moving out of the eastern market faster and faster simply allowing for more marketshare for porter as well. Throw in the fact that everyone in economy hates AC and flair is super unreliable, I think as long as they can handle the shorter to mid term challenges that a recession would pose (if it FINALLY does ever happen?) there’s nothing to worry about. Loads have been good and simply getting better as of late.

Also why am I not surprised to see the entitled/off his meds boomer from jazz back in another porter thread

[cdnavater]

EDITED

[cjp]

They’ll be fine, tons of cash to weather the storm. WJ keeps moving out of the eastern market faster and faster simply allowing for more marketshare for porter as well. Throw in the fact that everyone in economy hates AC and flair is super unreliable, I think as long as they can handle the shorter to mid term challenges that a recession would pose (if it FINALLY does ever happen?) there’s nothing to worry about. Loads have been good and simply getting better as of late.

Also why am I not surprised to see the entitled/off his meds boomer from jazz back in another porter thread

Entitled is not usually associated with boomers, typically when referring to you dickless millennials,
Also, I’m a GenX, best generation ever, mofo!
What fun are meds! I suppose some could be however, plenty of your Porter pilots commenting in AC and Jazz threads, it’s not a private thread dipshit!

Let's clear this up.

Gen X - also known as the 'forgotten generation'. Neglected middle child some might say. Infamous public persons included in this generation include Trudeau. He is not - as many seem to think - a millennial.

how do you identify, are you a princess today!

That's typically categorized in Generation Z. It's one below Y.

Something about Avocados and toast defines Gen Y 'millennials'.

Do as you wish - keeps this thread moving along and active. Just know most of us aren't going to give into the doom and gloom you are sharing.

If I were at Jazz in it's current state, I'd be concerned as well and feeling like the entire industry is falling apart.

[cdnavater]

They’ll be fine, tons of cash to weather the storm. WJ keeps moving out of the eastern market faster and faster simply allowing for more marketshare for porter as well. Throw in the fact that everyone in economy hates AC and flair is super unreliable, I think as long as they can handle the shorter to mid term challenges that a recession would pose (if it FINALLY does ever happen?) there’s nothing to worry about. Loads have been good and simply getting better as of late.

Also why am I not surprised to see the entitled/off his meds boomer from jazz back in another porter thread

Entitled is not usually associated with boomers, typically when referring to you dickless millennials,
Also, I’m a GenX, best generation ever, mofo!
What fun are meds! I suppose some could be however, plenty of your Porter pilots commenting in AC and Jazz threads, it’s not a private thread dipshit!

Let's clear this up.

Gen X - also known as the 'forgotten generation'. Neglected middle child some might say. Infamous public persons included in this generation include Trudeau. He is not - as many seem to think - a millennial.

how do you identify, are you a princess today!

That's typically categorized in Generation Z. It's one below Y.

Something about Avocados and toast defines Gen Y 'millennials'.

Do as you wish - keeps this thread moving along and active. Just know most of us aren't going to give into the doom and gloom you are sharing.

If I were at Jazz in it's current state, I'd be concerned as well and feeling like the entire industry is falling apart.

Are you two personas or defending 8895? That’s who I was responding to, but you’re not wrong, Jazz is all kinds of mess right now and unless something very drastic happens, I should not face layoffs. Even if that were a possibility, I still wouldn’t go somewhere on the bottom of any list until I see how this shakes out.
People are going to start losing their houses soon, soon after that jobs will start to disappear and well history teaches us the rest, good luck to you, genuinely!

[cjp]

Entitled is not usually associated with boomers, typically when referring to you dickless millennials,
Also, I’m a GenX, best generation ever, mofo!
What fun are meds! I suppose some could be however, plenty of your Porter pilots commenting in AC and Jazz threads, it’s not a private thread dipshit!

Let's clear this up.

Gen X - also known as the 'forgotten generation'. Neglected middle child some might say. Infamous public persons included in this generation include Trudeau. He is not - as many seem to think - a millennial.

how do you identify, are you a princess today!

That's typically categorized in Generation Z. It's one below Y.

Something about Avocados and toast defines Gen Y 'millennials'.

Do as you wish - keeps this thread moving along and active. Just know most of us aren't going to give into the doom and gloom you are sharing.

If I were at Jazz in it's current state, I'd be concerned as well and feeling like the entire industry is falling apart.

Are you two personas or defending 8895? That’s who I was responding to, but you’re not wrong, Jazz is all kinds of mess right now and unless something very drastic happens, I should not face layoffs. Even if that were a possibility, I still wouldn’t go somewhere on the bottom of any list until I see how this shakes out.
People are going to start losing their houses soon, soon after that jobs will start to disappear and well history teaches us the rest, good luck to you, genuinely!

Just me, myself and I. I don't think 8895 needs defending, but I felt like an open reply was warranted seeing as multiple people are engaging with you in a public forum.

I'm curious, do you feel these events are similar somehow to the U.S housing recession in 2008? Trudeau Sr. in the 70/80s? What past events are you determining to base your fear on regarding our future economy beyond your struggles with your current personal debt levels?

Anyone 'junior' at Jazz thinking of moving over to nearly double your salary Day 1 would be smart to do so. And no, our paychecks don't partially go to support all the STD/LTD crews that aren't returning to the flight line.

[YC87DRVR]

Yet another thread drifted and ruined by Jazzers….. impossible to discuss anything on this forum lately.

[M. Essaie]

Easy fix

Screen Shot 2023-08-11 at 7.20.35 AM.png (23.96 KiB) Viewed 3784 times

[cdnavater]

Easy fix

Screen Shot 2023-08-11 at 7.20.35 AM.png

Yes, made it!

[up on one]

Here are a few ball park figures to chew on. In 2024, approximately 320 billion in mortgages are up for renewal. That number jumps to approximately 350 billion for 2025 and 2026 is closer to 290 billion in mortgage renewals. These numbers are around 8-12% of Canada’s gdp.

Taking a closer look at the quarterly reports of the top 5 banks you’ll see they are substantially increasing their money put aside for loan loss provisions. A few banks have put away enough to cover 10% of their mortgages

Average mortgage will be increasing about 800-2000$ a month.

On a side not, highly recommend the Canadian podcast The Loonie Hour, great content without any fear mongering.

[cdnavater]

Let's clear this up.

Gen X - also known as the 'forgotten generation'. Neglected middle child some might say. Infamous public persons included in this generation include Trudeau. He is not - as many seem to think - a millennial.

how do you identify, are you a princess today!

That's typically categorized in Generation Z. It's one below Y.

Something about Avocados and toast defines Gen Y 'millennials'.

Do as you wish - keeps this thread moving along and active. Just know most of us aren't going to give into the doom and gloom you are sharing.

If I were at Jazz in it's current state, I'd be concerned as well and feeling like the entire industry is falling apart.

Are you two personas or defending 8895? That’s who I was responding to, but you’re not wrong, Jazz is all kinds of mess right now and unless something very drastic happens, I should not face layoffs. Even if that were a possibility, I still wouldn’t go somewhere on the bottom of any list until I see how this shakes out.
People are going to start losing their houses soon, soon after that jobs will start to disappear and well history teaches us the rest, good luck to you, genuinely!

Just me, myself and I. I don't think 8895 needs defending, but I felt like an open reply was warranted seeing as multiple people are engaging with you in a public forum.

I'm curious, do you feel these events are similar somehow to the U.S housing recession in 2008? Trudeau Sr. in the 70/80s? What past events are you determining to base your fear on regarding our future economy beyond your struggles with your current personal debt levels?

Anyone 'junior' at Jazz thinking of moving over to nearly double your salary Day 1 would be smart to do so. And no, our paychecks don't partially go to support all the STD/LTD crews that aren't returning to the flight line.

First, not struggling with my debt, I was pointing out that interest and the new mortgage rates are eating into people’s discretionary income, that is a fact. I have 3 month’s payments in my checking at all times and I have two brand new vehicles in my garage, many leisure toys and I’m currently on one of two summer vacations, I’m far from struggling.
My winter vacation is cancelled, I feel it’s not responsible to go on a third in under a year which is why I’m not struggling. Other than the previous mentioned line of credit which was for anything and everything, I have no credit card debt, I pay them off every month, it’s a line item in my budget, with no number it just get reconciled in the following month adjustment, always some left over which now goes towards debt as opposed to savings. That’s what the interest rate is doing and if you think I’m the only one thinking this way, well can’t help you.
To answer your question, all recessions have similarities but this one is a bit different, oil is fairly stable but fuel and diesel are like oil is 175/brl which is something that will keep inflation stubborn and will drive further increases, plenty of people are already renewing their mortgages on the new rates. Just talked to a guy the other day who bought a million dollar home with 400k down, originally his mortgage was 2300.00, now it’s more than twice that. How many people can afford to more than double their mortgage payment and not at the very least cut back elsewhere.
Anyhow, I’m done with this thread, some of the usual idiots are giving me a hard time for my opinion, as I said before, good luck

[WJ200]

The discussion of a possible recession is a very relevant discussion on a rapidly expanding airline. Growth into profitability has never been achieved by an airline in Canada and porter won't be spending millions to achieve this. They will need to have investors willing to front hundreds of millions to achieve that and their support will be determined by how well they weather a downturn in their other investments. I have to say that Porter has done very well from an operational standpoint with such rapid expansion and I think they are much better positioned to be successful in the future and a competitor in the airline space than Flair and especially Lynx. However, the language contained in a CBA isn't just about pay and I would caution that you see the most benefits from such language when things are not going well.

[TPP]

What I find the most interesting about this thread is the people that are currently in an Airline that is falling apart with a union are sounding the alarm that what Porter needs is a union.

Classic case of Stockholm syndrome.

Hurry up and unionize so you can be miserable like us!!

Jazz union hasn't prevented 2 massive contract obligations that were huge incentives to sign the 17 year dumpster of a contract they agreed on.

Garunteed percentage of flow to AC, and exclusive rights to regional flying for AC.

The way I see it the only positive union experience in Canada for the last several decades is WJ new ALPA.

ACPA dumpster fire.
Flair ALPA dumpster fire
Jazz ALPA dumpster fire with a second dumpster on standby.

And the list goes on...

[accountant]

What I find the most interesting about this thread is the people that are currently in an Airline that is falling apart with a union are sounding the alarm that what Porter needs is a union.

Classic case of Stockholm syndrome.

Hurry up and unionize so you can be miserable like us!!

Jazz union hasn't prevented 2 massive contract obligations that were huge incentives to sign the 17 year dumpster of a contract they agreed on.

Garunteed percentage of flow to AC, and exclusive rights to regional flying for AC.

The way I see it the only positive union experience in Canada for the last several decades is WJ new ALPA.

ACPA dumpster fire.
Flair ALPA dumpster fire
Jazz ALPA dumpster fire with a second dumpster on standby.

And the list goes on...

Shhh, you can speak logic to people but they only hear groupthink. Most in this group are used to being told they're underpaid, their corporate overlords are greedy, and they all deserve 3 cottages, 2 skidoos and 4 wives.

[TPP]

What I find the most interesting about this thread is the people that are currently in an Airline that is falling apart with a union are sounding the alarm that what Porter needs is a union.

Classic case of Stockholm syndrome.

Hurry up and unionize so you can be miserable like us!!

Jazz union hasn't prevented 2 massive contract obligations that were huge incentives to sign the 17 year dumpster of a contract they agreed on.

Garunteed percentage of flow to AC, and exclusive rights to regional flying for AC.

The way I see it the only positive union experience in Canada for the last several decades is WJ new ALPA.

ACPA dumpster fire.
Flair ALPA dumpster fire
Jazz ALPA dumpster fire with a second dumpster on standby.

And the list goes on...

Shhh, you can speak logic to people but they only hear groupthink. Most in this group are used to being told they're underpaid, their corporate overlords are greedy, and they all deserve 3 cottages, 2 skidoos and 4 wives.

Currently Canadian pilots are underpaid. Accoutant please go calculate how much ppl dont like you here as I have never seen you do anything but troll on this forum.

Back on topic, the industry is changing rapidly and at the moment the place that has given 2 raises in less than 12 months sure looks nice.

I think a union will eventually be voted into Porter if management starts doing shady shit during a downturn. There is no such thing a perfect contract but management has shown their willingness to pay when retention became a problem, and also improve QOL items.

[accountant]

Currently Canadian pilots are underpaid. Accoutant please go calculate how much ppl dont like you here as I have never seen you do anything but troll on this forum.

Back on topic, the industry is changing rapidly and at the moment the place that has given 2 raises in less than 12 months sure looks nice.

I think a union will eventually be voted into Porter if management starts doing shady shit during a downturn. There is no such thing a perfect contract but management has shown their willingness to pay when retention became a problem, and also improve QOL items.

I could care less who likes me or not.

Entry level pilots are underpaid. 20 year pilots are not.

Take a look at the pay grids and you'll see the industry has always been about cannibalizing the new and paying the old. Has been like that since the dawn of time. "Put in your time" they say.

You could scrape off a bit from the top and easily raise the bottom. Hasn't happened. Why? No appetite in the unions for it.

Porter/Deluci is an asset company. The airline is just a small part of things. The assets (land, airports, planes) are worth far more to them) than staffing the flights. A union will just add more costs and they will find a way to move away from it as quickly as possible. There model won't survive with all the extras on top from raw union costs.

[cjp]

What I find the most interesting about this thread is the people that are currently in an Airline that is falling apart with a union are sounding the alarm that what Porter needs is a union.

Classic case of Stockholm syndrome.

Hurry up and unionize so you can be miserable like us!!

Jazz union hasn't prevented 2 massive contract obligations that were huge incentives to sign the 17 year dumpster of a contract they agreed on.

Garunteed percentage of flow to AC, and exclusive rights to regional flying for AC.

The way I see it the only positive union experience in Canada for the last several decades is WJ new ALPA.

ACPA dumpster fire.
Flair ALPA dumpster fire
Jazz ALPA dumpster fire with a second dumpster on standby.

And the list goes on...

....and they all deserve 3 cottages, 2 skidoos and 4 wives.

You can keep the other 3, 1 is enough - thanks.

[sstaurus]

Entry level pilots are underpaid. 20 year pilots are not.

That part I can actually agree with. That, plus the time value of money, I would rather have the pay scales squished and not be so top heavy.

[accountant]

Entry level pilots are underpaid. 20 year pilots are not.

That part I can actually agree with. That, plus the time value of money, I would rather have the pay scales squished and not be so top heavy.

Zero sum bargaining would have already fixed this, but unions aren't willing to do this. This could have been fixed years ago.

[rudder]

Entry level pilots are underpaid. 20 year pilots are not.

That part I can actually agree with. That, plus the time value of money, I would rather have the pay scales squished and not be so top heavy.

Zero sum bargaining would have already fixed this, but unions aren't willing to do this. This could have been fixed years ago.

Zero sum bargaining?

Management fantasy. Just like government intervention.

[accountant]

That part I can actually agree with. That, plus the time value of money, I would rather have the pay scales squished and not be so top heavy.

Zero sum bargaining would have already fixed this, but unions aren't willing to do this. This could have been fixed years ago.

Zero sum bargaining?

Management fantasy. Just like government intervention.

Not a management fantasy.

Even in a downturn, you could choose to give up some gains to get them back elsewhere.

Senior pilots won't do it for juniors, all due to past history. "Pay your dues".

Whether you agree with it or not, the bottom could have been brought up easily.

[TPP]

Given the old Air Canada rates were 450 an hour for a 747 driver adjusted for inflation, the money is there.....it's just going to give CEOs 233 percent raises and stock buybacks.

This false narrative that we as a professional group deserve less wages than 20 years ago during one of the biggest shortages of pilots globally is sadly a big reason why Canada executives can get away with discounted labour North of the border.

[Timetoflyagain]

What I find the most interesting about this thread is the people that are currently in an Airline that is falling apart with a union are sounding the alarm that what Porter needs is a union.

Classic case of Stockholm syndrome.

Hurry up and unionize so you can be miserable like us!!

Jazz union hasn't prevented 2 massive contract obligations that were huge incentives to sign the 17 year dumpster of a contract they agreed on.

Garunteed percentage of flow to AC, and exclusive rights to regional flying for AC.

The way I see it the only positive union experience in Canada for the last several decades is WJ new ALPA.

ACPA dumpster fire.
Flair ALPA dumpster fire
Jazz ALPA dumpster fire with a second dumpster on standby.

And the list goes on...

+1 for sure…also it’s rough accepting you’ve been paying 2% for the privilege of getting continually shafted by your MEC. Love the recent Jazz threads that say yes, the company again violated the cba and in compensation gives hours for use by MEC volunteers or something like that…so the MEC members get time off to no doubt discuss union business fully paid by the company…..I’m sure used on golf courses, ski lifts and the odd cruise found on Perx..it’s good to be a member…payoff the MEC so they keep playing nice..wink wink.

Porter didn’t have the huge bankroll and assets of AC or ONEX to fall back on during covid…they did what was needed to survive. If hamstrung by a cba…fine…shut it all down, everybody’s gone, Porter 2.0 is created from the ashes, everybody’s at year 1 if they want you back. Instead the investors and BOD saw how well it was handled and bought into a vision of massive growth when everybody else was losing billions..and again accepted the reality of the labour market and approved the huge salary and wawcon increases.

[Blueontop]

Zero sum bargaining would have already fixed this, but unions aren't willing to do this. This could have been fixed years ago.

Zero sum bargaining?

Management fantasy. Just like government intervention.

Not a management fantasy.

Even in a downturn, you could choose to give up some gains to get them back elsewhere.

Senior pilots won't do it for juniors, all due to past history. "Pay your dues".

Whether you agree with it or not, the bottom could have been brought up easily.

Hey “accountant” @#$! off with your zero-sum bargaining. This bs about putting it all on senior pilots might have some small merit but when management gets away with 233% raises and then cry poor the next breath. Justify that kind of raise realistically. It’s ok for that but a 30-50% raise across the board for pilot wages is being greedy and asking too much? 233% is fn greedy and insulting to anyone else. You’re a POS. I know you’re a troll/management hack but this BS is getting tiring to hear.