Any plans for Socialized bidding?

[cjp]

I find it ironic that Porter pilots are extolling the virtue of seniority bidding, on the basis of a new hire getting the benefit of an expanding airline.

This was the same argument that Flair pilots made during their growth phase, until it suddenly ground to a halt.

Will Porter pilots still think that seniority based scheduling is great, if their expansion slows or stops? It doesn't really make sense when, for example, a pilot with 10 yrs seniority gets a vastly superior schedule over one with 8 yrs.

Difference is, and it's a big difference, we are actually acquiring the jets and growing. We onboarded more jets in 11 months, than Flair has after almost 20 years(?) give or take....likely to double their fleet size in another 6 months, while adding more bases within the year. The way the math works out, we make money just accepting the jets - so yeah, pretty sure they're all coming - all 75-100 jets.

The argument is a lot more valid for Porter - and frankly, end of the day, we pay better. Hopefully much better once Air Canada and Jazz stop hanging WAWCON anchors on this industry.

That said, can we do better for bidding - I'd certainly like to see some improvements, but who knows if or when that will transpire.

[digits_]

I find it ironic that Porter pilots are extolling the virtue of seniority bidding, on the basis of a new hire getting the benefit of an expanding airline.

This was the same argument that Flair pilots made during their growth phase, until it suddenly ground to a halt.

Will Porter pilots still think that seniority based scheduling is great, if their expansion slows or stops? It doesn't really make sense when, for example, a pilot with 10 yrs seniority gets a vastly superior schedule over one with 8 yrs.

Difference is, and it's a big difference, we are actually acquiring the jets and growing. We onboarded more jets in 11 months, than Flair has after almost 20 years(?) give or take....likely to double their fleet size in another 6 months, while adding more bases within the year. The way the math works out, we make money just accepting the jets - so yeah, pretty sure they're all coming - all 75-100 jets.

The argument is a lot more valid for Porter - and frankly, end of the day, we pay better. Hopefully much better once Air Canada and Jazz stop hanging WAWCON anchors on this industry.

That said, can we do better for bidding - I'd certainly like to see some improvements, but who knows if or when that will transpire.

I really hope you're right, but I wouldn't be getting overconfident. Porter wouldn't be the first airline to go bust a week after taking possession of a shiny new jet.

Enjoy the expansion, just be aware it can stop or go horribly wrong really quickly. Most likely because of things outside of your/Porter's control.

[braaap Braap]

I find it ironic that Porter pilots are extolling the virtue of seniority bidding, on the basis of a new hire getting the benefit of an expanding airline.

This was the same argument that Flair pilots made during their growth phase, until it suddenly ground to a halt.

Will Porter pilots still think that seniority based scheduling is great, if their expansion slows or stops? It doesn't really make sense when, for example, a pilot with 10 yrs seniority gets a vastly superior schedule over one with 8 yrs.

Difference is, and it's a big difference, we are actually acquiring the jets and growing. We onboarded more jets in 11 months, than Flair has after almost 20 years(?) give or take....likely to double their fleet size in another 6 months, while adding more bases within the year. The way the math works out, we make money just accepting the jets - so yeah, pretty sure they're all coming - all 75-100 jets.

The argument is a lot more valid for Porter - and frankly, end of the day, we pay better. Hopefully much better once Air Canada and Jazz stop hanging WAWCON anchors on this industry.

That said, can we do better for bidding - I'd certainly like to see some improvements, but who knows if or when that will transpire.

I really hope you're right, but I wouldn't be getting overconfident. Porter wouldn't be the first airline to go bust a week after taking possession of a shiny new jet.

Enjoy the expansion, just be aware it can stop or go horribly wrong really quickly. Most likely because of things outside of your/Porter's control.

Big time! I wish we would get our act together and get some actual representation in place.

[cjp]

I find it ironic that Porter pilots are extolling the virtue of seniority bidding, on the basis of a new hire getting the benefit of an expanding airline.

This was the same argument that Flair pilots made during their growth phase, until it suddenly ground to a halt.

Will Porter pilots still think that seniority based scheduling is great, if their expansion slows or stops? It doesn't really make sense when, for example, a pilot with 10 yrs seniority gets a vastly superior schedule over one with 8 yrs.

Difference is, and it's a big difference, we are actually acquiring the jets and growing. We onboarded more jets in 11 months, than Flair has after almost 20 years(?) give or take....likely to double their fleet size in another 6 months, while adding more bases within the year. The way the math works out, we make money just accepting the jets - so yeah, pretty sure they're all coming - all 75-100 jets.

The argument is a lot more valid for Porter - and frankly, end of the day, we pay better. Hopefully much better once Air Canada and Jazz stop hanging WAWCON anchors on this industry.

That said, can we do better for bidding - I'd certainly like to see some improvements, but who knows if or when that will transpire.

I really hope you're right, but I wouldn't be getting overconfident. Porter wouldn't be the first airline to go bust a week after taking possession of a shiny new jet.

Enjoy the expansion, just be aware it can stop or go horribly wrong really quickly. Most likely because of things outside of your/Porter's control.

Less...over confident, more appropriately confident in my personal analysis of Porter (and one of the many reasons I'm here). Airlines go bust, yes, but I don't see things changing here until all the jets have arrived and the bonuses have been handed out to the C-suite for hitting their growth targets - likely on or about 2027-2028.

If I can put my head into the Deluce mindsight, and knowing they love land, this expansion is likely an excuse to buy and develop land across the country. If they can build a profitable product to sell down the line, even better.

Unionization as we grow is highly likely - particularly once ALPA shows their strength with AC's negotiations. I just don't see it happening tomorrow - or this year.

[Realitychex]

Porter paid about us$29m per E2 + escalators that took the October deliveries up to $30.6m. That number is slightly higher than what Azul paid for their E2’s and works out to about us$232k a seat, well within the range for narrow body twin jets these days.

There’s a wonderful rumor out there that some unsophisticated lessors, (no such thing), gleefully paid $5m over market on sale/ lease back deals.

The E2 will attract an LRF of about .7% a month because, well, no one wants them and no one knows how long their economic life is.

If you choose to believe the story of the aircraft investors who paid $34.4m for airplanes that have a market value of $30.6m, allowing Porter to pocket about c$5m a tail, that would put the monthly lease payment owed by Porter to the lessor at about us$284,000 + reserves.

At $30.6m, the monthly lease nut on the sale / leaseback transaction would be about US$252,000 + reserves.

That’s far more likely representative of reality.

[Mac08]

Porter paid about us$29m per E2 + escalators that took the October deliveries up to $30.6m. That number is slightly higher than what Azul paid for their E2’s and works out to about us$232k a seat, well within the range for narrow body twin jets these days.

There’s a wonderful rumor out there that some unsophisticated lessors, (no such thing), gleefully paid $5m over market on sale/ lease back deals.

The E2 will attract an LRF of about .7% a month because, well, no one wants them and no one knows how long their economic life is.

If you choose to believe the story of the aircraft investors who paid $34.4m for airplanes that have a market value of $30.6m, allowing Porter to pocket about c$5m a tail, that would put the monthly lease payment owed by Porter to the lessor at about us$284,000 + reserves.

At $30.6m, the monthly lease nut on the sale / leaseback transaction would be about US$252,000 + reserves.

That’s far more likely representative of reality.

“99% of [airline] startups fail within 14 months and this will be one of them.”

- RealityChex aka Mark Hill on June 27, 2006.

Only been 15+ years but any day now… any day…

[Realitychex]

Gotta love the 20/20 hindsight.

No one had any knowledge of the real estate play, (turning a $50m terminal development into a $700m+ sale lease back windfall), the proceeds of which have been underpinning Porter for years.

Without that move, which was very clever, the Porter story would be very different.

As long as there are people / sources of cash available, airlines can continue to operate far longer than any one could ever expect.

Lynx is the most recent example of this. As long as Indigo was prepared to pump the cash in, even at usurious rates, Lynx was able to continue far longer than anyone thought possible.

Flair is in the same boat.

The only real unknown is how much of the piggy bank are they and the BoD prepared to spend to gain traction in the marketplace with an airframe, (E2), with 16% lower trip costs than a 174 seat 737-800, but critically, 15% higher unit costs.

It’s a finite number, but beyond that, your guess is as good as mine.

It’s also interesting that the two operations are, at, least from a legal perspective, distinct entities.

Lynx pulled the ‘chute at $200m…..what’s the E2’s magic number?