What's up with AC?

Discuss topics relating to Air Canada.

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Dry Guy
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by Dry Guy »

Be careful, pretending to be overtly racist to try to make AC pilots look bad is likely illegal for multiple reasons.
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flying4dollars
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by flying4dollars »

Dry Guy wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:54 am Be careful, pretending to be overtly racist to try to make AC pilots look bad is likely illegal for multiple reasons.
I'm sorry...what???
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DanWEC
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by DanWEC »

My stars! This is cultural appropriation!
:rolleyes:
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rookiepilot
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by rookiepilot »

Dry Guy wrote: Mon Jul 08, 2024 9:54 am Be careful, pretending to be overtly racist to try to make AC pilots look bad is likely illegal for multiple reasons.
You’ve lost me.
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pitottubey
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by pitottubey »

QKZXKV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:42 pm
daedalusx wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:06 pm Stud doesn’t even have wet ink on a PPL and already asks about how long to go left seat at the flag carrier.

:lol:

Jesus Christ

:lol:
:lol: is right

Pretty rude awakening for someone this pretentious when it comes time to train for the actual licenses that matter (CPL and ATPL).
You two are quite a riot aren't ya? Don't have anything better to do than bully a minor for doing research on a future career? Fu$%ing pathetic embarrassments to our profession.
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Landingstrip
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by Landingstrip »

QKZXKV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:31 pm
crystalpizza wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:15 pm
QKZXKV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 3:42 pm
:lol: is right

Pretty rude awakening for someone this pretentious when it comes time to train for the actual licenses that matter (CPL and ATPL).
Having long term career goals is not pretentious.

Taking it upon yourself to determine someone’s success in their future training/career based on two posts on a forum is.

You Canadian pilots kill me :rolleyes:
Goals is one thing i.e. " I want to fly for AC one day".

Dude hasn't even finished their PPL yet, and is asking about irrelevant topics like upgrade times. Search up the definition of pretentious and tell me where I'm wrong.

There's still the big uphill climb of getting a CPL and all the ratings, getting an ATPL, getting the experience to pass a command sim at the largest 705...

You (insert whatever miserable part of the planet you're from here) pilots kill me :rolleyes:

Your behaviour is shameful. OP has every right to ask about upgrade times and anything else, how else would you estimate wages ect for ones future potential career. I bet you guys feel real big and tough talking down to young hopeful pilots. I hope my son or daughter never accidentally asks for your advice one day. Shame on you both.
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by flying4dollars »

QKZXKV wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:35 pm
crystalpizza wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:24 am
QKZXKV wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:31 pm
There's still the big uphill climb of getting a CPL and all the ratings, getting an ATPL, getting the experience to pass a command sim at the largest 705...
All things you struggled with in your own individual experience? You still haven’t explained why you think the OP has a “rude awakening” coming his way or convinced me you’re qualified to make such a prediction (not that there’s such thing anyway). :roll:

Like others have said, no downside to doing research into a career one is interested in before shelling out tens of thousands of $$$$ and time.



The upgrade time subject at AC is an interesting one. Not only are they likely to increase in the foreseeable future due to hiring tapering off, but the only reason they are currently as quick as they are to begin with is the poor pay and scheduling associated with the NB CA position. I personally know 3 senior WB FOs on one type and base alone that have openly admitted they’d rather be a NB CA and can hold it but specifically chose not to due to the poor lifestyle in comparison. If (when) the upcoming contract brings significant QOL improvements to the NB side, it is likely some of these WB pilots would bid over and the NB CA will become noticeably more senior due to that alone.
LOL, I worked hard to get where I did and was successful. I didn't once jump ahead to care about upgrade times at the highest level of employer in the industry. Have goals but be humble and worry about the process is what I'm getting at... The road to 705 captain is long and takes a lot of character.

And btw, there's absolutely no requirement for me to convince some bloke on a forum who goes by "crystalpizza" that I am or am not qualified to have my own opinion regarding a thread topic...

You don't matter :lol:
Most of us seasoned pilots worked hard as well to be successful in this industry. I will admit I wasn't much different. When I sat down in the right seat of every operator I was ever at from the very beginning of my aviation journey I looked left and thought to myself "cool, but how do I get to THAT seat". There is nothing wrong with longing for that. The goal should be for every pilot to want the left seat and be in command. Most know they will have to work for it and earn it, but that should never deter querying about it. By the way the road to 705 left seat is not that long. My sim partner was a 2500hr Q400 captain.
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

flying4dollars wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 5:15 pm
QKZXKV wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:35 pm
crystalpizza wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:24 am

All things you struggled with in your own individual experience? You still haven’t explained why you think the OP has a “rude awakening” coming his way or convinced me you’re qualified to make such a prediction (not that there’s such thing anyway). :roll:

Like others have said, no downside to doing research into a career one is interested in before shelling out tens of thousands of $$$$ and time.



The upgrade time subject at AC is an interesting one. Not only are they likely to increase in the foreseeable future due to hiring tapering off, but the only reason they are currently as quick as they are to begin with is the poor pay and scheduling associated with the NB CA position. I personally know 3 senior WB FOs on one type and base alone that have openly admitted they’d rather be a NB CA and can hold it but specifically chose not to due to the poor lifestyle in comparison. If (when) the upcoming contract brings significant QOL improvements to the NB side, it is likely some of these WB pilots would bid over and the NB CA will become noticeably more senior due to that alone.
LOL, I worked hard to get where I did and was successful. I didn't once jump ahead to care about upgrade times at the highest level of employer in the industry. Have goals but be humble and worry about the process is what I'm getting at... The road to 705 captain is long and takes a lot of character.

And btw, there's absolutely no requirement for me to convince some bloke on a forum who goes by "crystalpizza" that I am or am not qualified to have my own opinion regarding a thread topic...

You don't matter :lol:
Most of us seasoned pilots worked hard as well to be successful in this industry. I will admit I wasn't much different. When I sat down in the right seat of every operator I was ever at from the very beginning of my aviation journey I looked left and thought to myself "cool, but how do I get to THAT seat". There is nothing wrong with longing for that. The goal should be for every pilot to want the left seat and be in command. Most know they will have to work for it and earn it, but that should never deter querying about it. By the way the road to 705 left seat is not that long. My sim partner was a 2500hr Q400 captain.
Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cjp »

cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 5:15 pm
QKZXKV wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:35 pm

LOL, I worked hard to get where I did and was successful. I didn't once jump ahead to care about upgrade times at the highest level of employer in the industry. Have goals but be humble and worry about the process is what I'm getting at... The road to 705 captain is long and takes a lot of character.

And btw, there's absolutely no requirement for me to convince some bloke on a forum who goes by "crystalpizza" that I am or am not qualified to have my own opinion regarding a thread topic...

You don't matter :lol:
Most of us seasoned pilots worked hard as well to be successful in this industry. I will admit I wasn't much different. When I sat down in the right seat of every operator I was ever at from the very beginning of my aviation journey I looked left and thought to myself "cool, but how do I get to THAT seat". There is nothing wrong with longing for that. The goal should be for every pilot to want the left seat and be in command. Most know they will have to work for it and earn it, but that should never deter querying about it. By the way the road to 705 left seat is not that long. My sim partner was a 2500hr Q400 captain.
Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
Steady.
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braaap Braap
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by braaap Braap »

cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 5:15 pm
QKZXKV wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:35 pm

LOL, I worked hard to get where I did and was successful. I didn't once jump ahead to care about upgrade times at the highest level of employer in the industry. Have goals but be humble and worry about the process is what I'm getting at... The road to 705 captain is long and takes a lot of character.

And btw, there's absolutely no requirement for me to convince some bloke on a forum who goes by "crystalpizza" that I am or am not qualified to have my own opinion regarding a thread topic...

You don't matter :lol:
Most of us seasoned pilots worked hard as well to be successful in this industry. I will admit I wasn't much different. When I sat down in the right seat of every operator I was ever at from the very beginning of my aviation journey I looked left and thought to myself "cool, but how do I get to THAT seat". There is nothing wrong with longing for that. The goal should be for every pilot to want the left seat and be in command. Most know they will have to work for it and earn it, but that should never deter querying about it. By the way the road to 705 left seat is not that long. My sim partner was a 2500hr Q400 captain.
Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
P&W issues forced a step or two backwards but still seems like the growth continues with growth projects in YOW and YUL coming along.
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

cjp wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 8:16 pm
cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 5:15 pm

Most of us seasoned pilots worked hard as well to be successful in this industry. I will admit I wasn't much different. When I sat down in the right seat of every operator I was ever at from the very beginning of my aviation journey I looked left and thought to myself "cool, but how do I get to THAT seat". There is nothing wrong with longing for that. The goal should be for every pilot to want the left seat and be in command. Most know they will have to work for it and earn it, but that should never deter querying about it. By the way the road to 705 left seat is not that long. My sim partner was a 2500hr Q400 captain.
Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
Steady.
How many fins now?
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twa22
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by twa22 »

cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 8:35 pm
cjp wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 8:16 pm
cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm

Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
Steady.
How many fins now?
36 with 3 more incoming imminently...

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/P ... nes-Canada
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Last edited by twa22 on Sat Jul 20, 2024 7:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cjp »

cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 8:35 pm
cjp wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 8:16 pm
cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm

Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
Steady.
How many fins now?
Generally 2 new fins a month.
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by flying4dollars »

cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 5:15 pm
QKZXKV wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 3:35 pm

LOL, I worked hard to get where I did and was successful. I didn't once jump ahead to care about upgrade times at the highest level of employer in the industry. Have goals but be humble and worry about the process is what I'm getting at... The road to 705 captain is long and takes a lot of character.

And btw, there's absolutely no requirement for me to convince some bloke on a forum who goes by "crystalpizza" that I am or am not qualified to have my own opinion regarding a thread topic...

You don't matter :lol:
Most of us seasoned pilots worked hard as well to be successful in this industry. I will admit I wasn't much different. When I sat down in the right seat of every operator I was ever at from the very beginning of my aviation journey I looked left and thought to myself "cool, but how do I get to THAT seat". There is nothing wrong with longing for that. The goal should be for every pilot to want the left seat and be in command. Most know they will have to work for it and earn it, but that should never deter querying about it. By the way the road to 705 left seat is not that long. My sim partner was a 2500hr Q400 captain.
Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
I didn't claim it would continue indefinitely, but saying the road to 705 left seat is long is not entirely accurate and hasn't been for a few years. That trend will likely continue for the next few as porter, AC, Flair etc continue to grow. Plan your career on it? No, I wouldn't either, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet it won't be anywhere near as long for the OP as it was for a lot of us millennials +
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

flying4dollars wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 10:24 am
cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 5:15 pm

Most of us seasoned pilots worked hard as well to be successful in this industry. I will admit I wasn't much different. When I sat down in the right seat of every operator I was ever at from the very beginning of my aviation journey I looked left and thought to myself "cool, but how do I get to THAT seat". There is nothing wrong with longing for that. The goal should be for every pilot to want the left seat and be in command. Most know they will have to work for it and earn it, but that should never deter querying about it. By the way the road to 705 left seat is not that long. My sim partner was a 2500hr Q400 captain.
Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
I didn't claim it would continue indefinitely, but saying the road to 705 left seat is long is not entirely accurate and hasn't been for a few years. That trend will likely continue for the next few as porter, AC, Flair etc continue to grow. Plan your career on it? No, I wouldn't either, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet it won't be anywhere near as long for the OP as it was for a lot of us millennials +
I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
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Flyboy736
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by Flyboy736 »

cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 10:24 am
cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm

Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
I didn't claim it would continue indefinitely, but saying the road to 705 left seat is long is not entirely accurate and hasn't been for a few years. That trend will likely continue for the next few as porter, AC, Flair etc continue to grow. Plan your career on it? No, I wouldn't either, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet it won't be anywhere near as long for the OP as it was for a lot of us millennials +
I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
Regarding Porter growth there was a internal memo posted somewhere that their 5 spares was growing to 8 or 9 this summer and to expect a slowdown in new hire frequency and/or class sizes.
Seems pretty temporary right now more so the lack of aircraft than the economy
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

Flyboy736 wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 2:15 pm
cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 10:24 am

I didn't claim it would continue indefinitely, but saying the road to 705 left seat is long is not entirely accurate and hasn't been for a few years. That trend will likely continue for the next few as porter, AC, Flair etc continue to grow. Plan your career on it? No, I wouldn't either, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet it won't be anywhere near as long for the OP as it was for a lot of us millennials +
I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
Regarding Porter growth there was a internal memo posted somewhere that their 5 spares was growing to 8 or 9 this summer and to expect a slowdown in new hire frequency and/or class sizes.
Seems pretty temporary right now more so the lack of aircraft than the economy
Just curious, the increase in spares, related to the engine cycles or load factors, seems odd to park an additional 3-4 fins in peak travel?
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by braaap Braap »

cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 7:37 pm
Flyboy736 wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 2:15 pm
cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm

I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
Regarding Porter growth there was a internal memo posted somewhere that their 5 spares was growing to 8 or 9 this summer and to expect a slowdown in new hire frequency and/or class sizes.
Seems pretty temporary right now more so the lack of aircraft than the economy
Just curious, the increase in spares, related to the engine cycles or load factors, seems odd to park an additional 3-4 fins in peak travel?
Same P&W GTF issues as other types. Even when the bearing goes they replace it with the same faulty bearing because the new parts apparently aren't coming till 2025.
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by propstojets »

Porter is putting more importance on being a reliable airline (increasing spares at the cost of slowed expansion for a few months). It’s not for a lack of demand. Loads are very full most flights.
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

propstojets wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 8:55 pm Porter is putting more importance on being a reliable airline (increasing spares at the cost of slowed expansion for a few months). It’s not for a lack of demand. Loads are very full most flights.
Good to hear, Porter is raising the bar for all of us!
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by flying4dollars »

cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 10:24 am
cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm

Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
I didn't claim it would continue indefinitely, but saying the road to 705 left seat is long is not entirely accurate and hasn't been for a few years. That trend will likely continue for the next few as porter, AC, Flair etc continue to grow. Plan your career on it? No, I wouldn't either, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet it won't be anywhere near as long for the OP as it was for a lot of us millennials +
I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
True, it does seem ambitious to grow to 100 tails. Flair has pretty much stopped delivery so you have a point but I'm just basing most of my assumptions on everyone's planned growth. What will actually happen is anyone's guess. I do know AC will be adding more fins to its fleet, and even if porter stops at 50 tails, still another what, 15 to go with 6-8 pilots per tail? AC still needs over 1000+ pilots. There is still a lot of available flight crew seats open to be filled. On a side note, are the grounded Embraers at Jazz going to be flying again? I haven't heard much about them lately. Maybe they are and I'm way behind.
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by twa22 »

cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 10:24 am
cdnavater wrote: Fri Jul 19, 2024 6:40 pm

Assuming that last part will continue indefinitely is likely a mistake, I wouldn’t plan my career on it, that’s for sure.
The cracks are starting to show, I expect a significant slow down in movement, haven’t heard much about Porter’s growth trajectory these days.
I didn't claim it would continue indefinitely, but saying the road to 705 left seat is long is not entirely accurate and hasn't been for a few years. That trend will likely continue for the next few as porter, AC, Flair etc continue to grow. Plan your career on it? No, I wouldn't either, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet it won't be anywhere near as long for the OP as it was for a lot of us millennials +
I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
"Air transport in Canada is forecast to grow by 51% in the next 20 years under the “current trends” scenario. This would result in an additional 39.8 million passenger journeys by 2037. If met, this increased demand would support approximately US $73.3 billion of GDP and almost 800,650 jobs."

https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository ... -aviation/

Albeit a slightly older publication, it's straight from IATA... you keep touting there's going to be a huge slow down and it'll only be retirements... there is literally nothing that says that will be the case... also, as of just recently, global demand changed to even more growth in the next 20 years

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... 0by%202043.
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

twa22 wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 4:28 pm
cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 10:24 am

I didn't claim it would continue indefinitely, but saying the road to 705 left seat is long is not entirely accurate and hasn't been for a few years. That trend will likely continue for the next few as porter, AC, Flair etc continue to grow. Plan your career on it? No, I wouldn't either, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet it won't be anywhere near as long for the OP as it was for a lot of us millennials +
I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
"Air transport in Canada is forecast to grow by 51% in the next 20 years under the “current trends” scenario. This would result in an additional 39.8 million passenger journeys by 2037. If met, this increased demand would support approximately US $73.3 billion of GDP and almost 800,650 jobs."

https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository ... -aviation/

Albeit a slightly older publication, it's straight from IATA... you keep touting there's going to be a huge slow down and it'll only be retirements... there is literally nothing that says that will be the case... also, as of just recently, global demand changed to even more growth in the next 20 years

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... 0by%202043.
Keep in mind IATA projections are biased, they looking through rose coloured glasses and they are selling their projections, so grain of salt
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

flying4dollars wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 2:27 pm
cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 10:24 am

I didn't claim it would continue indefinitely, but saying the road to 705 left seat is long is not entirely accurate and hasn't been for a few years. That trend will likely continue for the next few as porter, AC, Flair etc continue to grow. Plan your career on it? No, I wouldn't either, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet it won't be anywhere near as long for the OP as it was for a lot of us millennials +
I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
True, it does seem ambitious to grow to 100 tails. Flair has pretty much stopped delivery so you have a point but I'm just basing most of my assumptions on everyone's planned growth. What will actually happen is anyone's guess. I do know AC will be adding more fins to its fleet, and even if porter stops at 50 tails, still another what, 15 to go with 6-8 pilots per tail? AC still needs over 1000+ pilots. There is still a lot of available flight crew seats open to be filled. On a side note, are the grounded Embraers at Jazz going to be flying again? I haven't heard much about them lately. Maybe they are and I'm way behind.
I’m not sure how many embraers are parked or flying, I do know that at the end of this year we are only guaranteed 80 aircraft in our CPA, 25 E175, 30 900s(after the lease return of the SkyWest fins) and the 25 Qs getting the new light weight seat, that looks to be the fleet going forward and according to what I’ve heard we can staff 80 aircraft with our current numbers. So, time will tell obviously but of course I remain optimistic(silly, I know)
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CaptDukeNukem
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by CaptDukeNukem »

flying4dollars wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 2:27 pm
cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 10:24 am

I didn't claim it would continue indefinitely, but saying the road to 705 left seat is long is not entirely accurate and hasn't been for a few years. That trend will likely continue for the next few as porter, AC, Flair etc continue to grow. Plan your career on it? No, I wouldn't either, I agree. But I'd be willing to bet it won't be anywhere near as long for the OP as it was for a lot of us millennials +
I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
True, it does seem ambitious to grow to 100 tails. Flair has pretty much stopped delivery so you have a point but I'm just basing most of my assumptions on everyone's planned growth. What will actually happen is anyone's guess. I do know AC will be adding more fins to its fleet, and even if porter stops at 50 tails, still another what, 15 to go with 6-8 pilots per tail? AC still needs over 1000+ pilots. There is still a lot of available flight crew seats open to be filled. On a side note, are the grounded Embraers at Jazz going to be flying again? I haven't heard much about them lately. Maybe they are and I'm way behind.
Porter has confirmed orders for 75. Pretty sure that means they won’t stop at 50.

25 options to be exercised in some fashion in the future.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/por ... 41.article


But yes, pilots are definitely gonna be needed. And there’s no way 6-8 pilots per tail is enough. Maybe 6-8 captains, and another 6-8 FOs
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