Is the music stopping?

[Kelowna Pilot]

I know you're trying to get a point across and I'm sorry to nitpick here, but if there was a cycle of anything in the past, it would have been over a far longer scale than today. It also would have been localized.

What, did all you people skip "Consumer Education" back in high school!!

Yes, I appreciate that the technology was different a long time ago, but if you don't believe me go to the library and get a book on economic history.

Economic cycles (boom and bust in varying forms) have been around forever.

The only people who historically argue that things "go up forever" are usually people or groups trying to sell you something.

[Northern Skies]

Agreed. My point was simply that most of the cycles outside of agricultural factors would have taken place over a longer span than one's lifetime. Not that it matters, we would have probably all been serfs anyway.

[Kelowna Pilot]

You're probably right.

Cheers!

[THEICEMAN]

The 8 year business cycle is a recent trend dated back to WWII.
Yes, recessions did happened in the BC era. But we don't have the precise figures that describe the extent of the recession. All we have is scriptures telling us that there was a recession!
Their cycles were based on agricultural products! If there was a crop failure, the market crashed! There was no consistent cycle pattern.

We only started to record precise economic data in the mid to late 16th century.....

Very good point Northern Skies!

y point was simply that most of the cycles outside of agricultural factors would have taken place over a longer span than one's lifetime.

On a macro point of view, recession is not a bad thing. But the question here is, will it happen in 2008?
Some Bears like Jim Rodgers believe we are in for it. Others have pointed out, that the drop of Int. rates from the federal reserve should kick start the real estate market by late 2008.

[Cat Driver]

Up and down cycles have been a part of aviation since the Wright brothers.

My gut feeling is we are entering a whole new meaning to the of the word down.

The Bush administration has decimated the American economy as evident in the fall of the US dollar.....when the USA snezzes Canada catches the cold.

[N2]

Up and down cycles have been a part of aviation since the Wright brothers.

Ohhhhh witty one there Mr. Cat!

I would post other comments but I have to fly....errrrr take-off......you get the drift! I gotta go!

[johnholmes]

Others have pointed out, that the drop of Int. rates from the federal reserve should kick start the real estate market by late 2008.

Dropping interest rates will only drive up inflation. If you think there hasn't been any inflation in Canada have you been to Alberta in the last few years?? It's only going to make the bubble bigger and the fallout worse. Jim Rogers is a very respectable and succefull investor and his opinion shouldn't be taken lightly. He probably understands cylcles and economics better than 99.9% of people. The US is 9 trillion dollars in debt and that number is growing fast. If youy think the US housing market is going to improve anytime soon have a look at this 60 Minutes video on the housing problems.......

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/i_video ... 3415.shtml

[Hedley]

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/new ... 9f&k=35536

[Kelowna Pilot]

Others have pointed out, that the drop of Int. rates from the federal reserve should kick start the real estate market by late 2008.

Yes... 'others'... like the real-estate lobby, the National Association of Realtors in the US, the same people who told us that housing prices would "go up forever" because "this time it's different". Well, look what's happening in the US right now...

I must admit I have a certain fascination for the the "spin doctors" who work for the various lobby groups, and whose job it is to "spin" and manipulate data and create "studies" that serve their industry's self-interest.

They must listen to those self-help "Have a Positive Attitude" tapes in their car on the way to work each, because I just don't how they do it and look themselves in the mirror each day....

You come home from work each day, the wife asks you how work was, and you reply: "It was great... I twisted and manipulated reality, and my remarks even got picked up by the Associated Press"...

[johnholmes]

Quote:
Others have pointed out, that the drop of Int. rates from the federal reserve should kick start the real estate market by late 2008.

Yes... 'others'... like the real-estate lobby, the National Association of Realtors in the US, the same people who told us that housing prices would "go up forever" because "this time it's different". Well, look what's happening in the US right now...

Exactly. US foreclosures were up a whopping 79% last year alone and they are not expected to peak until late 2008 or early 2009. Cutting interest rates may put of the problem in the short term but will be detremental in the long term. Remember Newton' Law; For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

[Kelowna Pilot]

Exactly. US foreclosures were up a whopping 79% last year alone and they are not expected to peak until late 2008 or early 2009. Cutting interest rates may put of the problem in the short term but will be detremental in the long term. Remember Newton' Law; For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Just wait until it hits Canada... I know no one wants to hear that, but just look at the history books.

There are so many bubbles, especially in the west.

Kelowna, believe it or not, was recently ranked the 13th most unaffordable city in the world.

Yes, that Kelowna, the little hick-town in the valley with the Ogopogo statue downtown...

The economy has been on crack for the last few years, so it's a fascinating time...

[THEICEMAN]

Exactly. US foreclosures were up a whopping 79% last year alone and they are not expected to peak until late 2008 or early 2009. Cutting interest rates may put of the problem in the short term but will be detremental in the long term. Remember Newton' Law; For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Cutting interest rates doesn't help the economy right away. It always takes a year for the market to adjust. We will only be seeing improvements from the real estate market by late 2008. Never anticipate overnight results when feds cut rates!

In the short run (1-2 years), it's probably gonna place a band aid. In the long run, the U.S economy is going to have to worry about inflation. Bernake is a brilliant guy! He knows what he is doin...

Kelowna, it's not the real estate market that many are worried about in Canada. It is the manufacturing industry. 87% of our exports is to the U.S. If the Canadian currency keeps jumpin on the U.S dollar, then they will be reluctant to buy our products!
That's what economist are worried about for eastern Canada!

Yes... 'others'... like the real-estate lobby

Negative! Brillaint Bulls like Craig Alxander, who is the Chief economist for TD, believe that the market will recover in the U.S by late 2008/ early 2009.
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/071213/td_econ ... .html?.v=1

Dropping interest rates will only drive up inflation

John Holmes...yes I know that! I have pointed that out three times already!
The only thing is that, inflation will be the problem for the U.S in the long run not the short run. Their currency is going to take a big hit by 2010.

To get back on topic!
I know that everybody is concerned. My stock broker is getting calls all day from worried customers....but that's just part of the game!
Calm down & stop the panic. There is no need to make worst case assumptions just because we are facing a small econmic downturn.

I would like to remind you all, that the Bear attitude which promotes "Panic" is the same attitude that led to the crash of 1929!
History has proven that.

[Kelowna Pilot]

Kelowna, it's not the real estate market that many are worried about in Canada. It is the manufacturing industry. 87% of our exports is to the U.S. If the Canadian currency keeps jumpin on the U.S dollar, then they will be reluctant to buy our products!

No sh*te!! I just hope the US tourists will still keep buying my Ogopogo figurines that I sell down in City Park with all the other hippies and French Canadians

Seriously, the forestry industry in BC is also taking a deep pounding. A lot of the small towns that are dependent on the local mills are really taking a beating. Demand for BC lumber is way down. You're most certainly right... it ain't just housing.

Negative! Brillaint Bulls like Craig Alxander, who is the Chief economist for TD, believe that the market will recover in the U.S by late 2008/ early 2009.

How much money does TD make off the mortgage industry? Alexander has too much at stake in the apple-cart to ever say something publicly that the shareholders don't want to hear.

Frankly, no one knows how bad this will turn out, but if history is the judge it could turn about to be 80/81 all over again.

I would like to remind you all, that the Bear attitude which promotes "Panic" is the same attitude that led to the crash of 1929!
History has proven that.

C'mon is that what your stock broker tried pull on you

The causes for the Depression was a little more complex. Here's a very condensed survey:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_ ... Depression


As has been stated before: Everything goes in cycles. Aviation is no different. The key is to pray your career path matches the cycles... as they say, "it's when you were born that counts most..."

[Cat Driver]

If the economy goes in the gutter for a period of time those at the bottom of the economic ladder pay and working conditions will suffer most.

Last time I checked pilots would be in that group.

[Ogee]

Just before the bottom of a recession is the ideal time to start a new low cost airline. Aircraft lease costs are at all time lows, people are looking for flight bargains, and seats fill with try us fares.

If one starts in Canada, and it is fully financed, it would be a nightmare for both Westjet, stuck with new high cost aircraft, and Air Canada, which can't withstand any further fare dilutions.

[Kelowna Pilot]

Ogee,

I'm in!

And don't forget... pilots will be desperate for jobs.

We can make them pay us $40,000 cash up front to "buy" their jobs.

It may sound absurd, but you'd have no problems finding pilots willing to get the personal bank loan.

[alpha1]

The economist Nouriel Roubini accurately called the sub-prime/credit disaster over a year ago. Check out what he thinks might happen next.

Unfortunately, it isn't pretty.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/242290/

[Four1oh]

The economist Nouriel Roubini accurately called the sub-prime/credit disaster over a year ago. Check out what he thinks might happen next.

Unfortunately, it isn't pretty.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/242290/

I think we'll be lucky if it isn't worse than 1929. For 2 frigging years now, I've been seeing the occasional article in the newspaper about how, 'it hasn't been since the late '20's" since this and that, mostly commenting on how insanely easy it was to get a mortgage, how ridiculously long-term some mortgages are(40 years, I'm sure there's higher terms), how many different imaginative types of mortgages there are(oh, like interest only mortgages), how leveraged the average consumer is, how low the interest rates are... the list goes on.

This is not a surprise to anyone who's been paying attention! I'm just hoping like hell I can financially survive the impending storm. I've been trying to get out of debt myself the last year, but the storm is coming sooner than I had expected. BTW, I'm not an economist, I just pay attention to my neighbors spending habits.

[intel]

what is friggin scarey is the fact that the properties were bought for so much, and then they cant sell the properties to make money back like they planned. The interest goes up after a honeymoon period, I think they call it that. They simply cant pay the loan back.
They got royally screwed. Other people come in cashed up to buy the house off the bank, and they hold on to them and sell them for more when the price goes back up in a few years.

As Gecko said "Greed is good"

It keeps america running for a while, but it is also it s downfall.
I am no economist, But I think that is what happening at the moment.
God Bless America, it had to happen on Bushes watch!!!!

[johnholmes]

John Holmes...yes I know that! I have pointed that out three times already!
The only thing is that, inflation will be the problem for the U.S in the long run not the short run. Their currency is going to take a big hit by 2010.

Ummm..ok so you are telling me that their currency hasn't taken a big hit. Last time I checked we were around par with the US dollar. 2 years ago our dollar was $0.65. If that's not a big hit then what is.

To get back on topic!
I know that everybody is concerned. My stock broker is getting calls all day from worried customers....but that's just part of the game!
Calm down & stop the panic. There is no need to make worst case assumptions just because we are facing a small econmic downturn.

So how did your stocks do today ICE? How have they done so far in 2008. Your stockboreker isn't going to tell you to stop buying or else he doesn't get paid. A hint of advice, stop listening to your stock broker and do a little research of your own.

[Cat Driver]

God Bless America, it had to happen on Bushes watch!!!!

Bush will go down in history as the most inept president ever.

Iraq was his bullet in his own head.

[Kelowna Pilot]

I see my original link to the recent history of Recessions is broken.

Here it is again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions

You can see this negatively, or you can see it as a "when to buy" timeline

[sky's the limit]

If you're going to buy a house, put as much down as you can, get a mortgage payment you'll be able to easily handle if interest rates go up to 8 or 10%, you'll be fine. Zero or 5% down mortgages are nuts. Buy what you can afford, and don't friggen finance TV's, couches, computers, diamonds, tools, lawn mowers or vacations - you're asking for it.

If you do it smart, when things go for a shit, you'll be in a really good place to pick up some cheap Oceanfront....

Just my take.

stl

[Four1oh]

I see my original link to the recent history of Recessions is broken.

Here it is again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions

You can see this negatively, or you can see it as a "when to buy" timeline

I find the section "Debt" describing the crash and resulting depression of 1929 relevent here. It's chillingly familiar:

Debt

Macroeconomists, including the current chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank System Ben Bernanke, have revived the debt-deflation view of the Great Depression originated by Arthur Cecil Pigou and Irving Fisher. In the 1920s, Americans consumers and businesses relied on cheap credit, the former to purchase consumer goods such as automobiles and furniture and the later for capital investment to increase production. This fueled strong short-term growth but created consumer and commercial debt. People and businesses who were deeply in debt when price deflation occurred or demand for their product decreased often risked default. Many drastically cut current spending to keep up time payments, thus lowering demand for new products. Businesses began to fail as construction work and factory orders plunged.

Massive layoffs occurred, resulting in unemployment rates of over 25%. Banks which had financed a lot of this debt began to fail as debtors defaulted on debt and bank depositors became worried about their deposits and began massive withdrawals. Government guarantees and Federal Reserve banking regulations to prevent these types of panics were ineffective or not used. Bank failures led to the evaporation of billions of dollars in assets. Up to 40% of the available money supply normally used for purchases and bank payments was destroyed by all these bank failures.

Furthermore, the debt became heavier, because prices and incomes fell 20–50%, but the debts remained at the same dollar amount. After the panic of 1929, and during the first 10 months of 1930, 744 banks failed. In all, 9,000 banks failed during the decade of the 30s. By 1933, depositors saw $140 billion of their deposits disappear due to uninsured bank failures. [4] Bank failures snowballed as desperate bankers tried calling in loans which the borrowers did not have time or money to repay. With future profits looking poor, capital investment and construction slowed or completely ceased. In the face of bad loans and worsening future prospects, the surviving banks became even more conservative in their lending. [5] Banks built up their capital reserves, which intensified deflationary pressures. The vicious cycle developed and the downward spiral accelerated. This kind of self-aggravating process may have turned a 1930 recession into a 1933 great depression.

[THEICEMAN]

Ummm..ok so you are telling me that their currency hasn't taken a big hit. Last time I checked we were around par with the US dollar. 2 years ago our dollar was $0.65. If that's not a big hit then what is.

I mean to tell you that it could take an even bigger hit!

So how did your stocks do today ICE? How have they done so far in 2008. Your stockboreker isn't going to tell you to stop buying or else he doesn't get paid. A hint of advice, stop listening to your stock broker and do a little research of your own.

John Holmes, I love how you assume out of nowhere that I praise my broker just because I mentioned him. The truth is, I don't listen to that fackin moron! I make my own choices when it comes to investments.

The way you asked the question about "how I am doin in 2008", shows that your most probably a short term trader. To be honest, I haven't made a single trade in 2008!
I am a very patient trader, & I have invested wisely in energy companies! So to answer your question.....let's just say, I won't need to be worried about money in long time!