Air France 447 Reported Missing

[canwhitewolf]

lightning strike on 747

http://tinyurl.com/kkodbk

[canwhitewolf]

carbon fibre and lightning is a bad combination

Aeroplanes with carbon fibre parts have been struck by lightning many times before without incident.

Hoping for some good news

******************************************************************

true enough but initially it (carbon fibre and lightning) also caused crashes, but im sure they have solved that problem in these times hopefully

[canwhitewolf]

Doubts over lightning's role in missing jetliner

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCr ... USL1719357

[c170b53]

The 747 flix was a 200 and there's little CRP in that. Underneath the primer of a CRP panel is a metal (sprayed on) layer / coating providing a path to conduct the current to main structure often by the use of bonding wires. The current then will seek out a path to discharge via the static wicks which have an internal resistor to slowly (relative) discharge the electrical force back into the air mass.

[FastFlyBy]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5 ... dChannel=0


What happened to Flight 447?
Mon Jun 1, 2009 2:22pm EDT


-- Miles O'Brien is a pilot, airplane owner and freelance journalist who lives in Manhattan. His blog is located here http://www.milesobrien.com --

By Miles O'Brien

NEW YORK (Reuters.com) -- So what happened to Air France Flight 447? It is early and speculation at this juncture is often wildly wrong. And remember, there are usually several factors that conspire to bring an airliner down. But here is what we do know for sure. Keep this in mind as you process the often inaccurate reporting on aviation that is so prevalent in the mainstream media.

The Timeline - The flight, carrying 216 passengers and 12 crewmembers, left Rio de Janeiro at 2203 GMT (7:03 PM local time). It flew beyond radar coverage 3 hours and 33 minutes later (at 0133 GMT). A half hour later (0200 GMT) - now four hours into the flight - the plane encountered heavy turbulence. Fourteen minutes later (0214 GMT), now a long way out to sea, it transmitted an automated signal indicating it a failure in an electrical circuit. A company spokesman is hinting other systems might have failed as well.

It was a dark and stormy night - in a place that is home to the world's worst thunderstorms. Just as it disappeared, the Airbus A330-203 was flying into a thick band of convective activity that rose to 41,000 feet. This equatorial region is known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (see tinyurl.com/nzpouk ) - it is where Northeast and Southeast Trade Winds meet - forcing a lot of warm, moist air upward - which condenses - an efficient thunderstorm producing machine.

The crew had "Sully-esque" seasoning - The Captain had 11,000 hours total time (1700 in the Airbus A330/A340). One Copilot had 3,000 hours total time (800 in the Airbus A330/340) and the other Copilot had 6,600 hours total time (2,600 in the Airbus A330/340).

The Airbus A330 has a good record - and this was the first crash of a twin-engine A330 in revenue service in its history. In 1994, seven employees of Airbus died when a 330 went down during a test flight. The accident report says it was a case of pilot error (see here ) The airplane that crashed last night - tail number F-GZCP - had no accidents or incidents in its history. It went into service on April 18, 2005 and had logged 18,870 hours. It was in the hangar on April 18 for routine maintenance.

No reason to believe terrorism - No groups have claimed any responsibility, but you cannot take the possibility of a bomb off the list just yet.

So consider this as a possible scenario. The crew is flying toward a line of storms in the dark, out of range of land-based radar. They are equipped with on board weather radar however - and can use it to thread their way through the bad cells if need be.

It is quite likely the airplane was struck by lightning. That could have triggered a fuel fire - but that is highly unlikely. In fact, it has been 42 years since lightning alone caused an airliner crash in the US. A lot of time and effort is spent protecting airplanes from the clear and present danger (interesting piece here )

And since Airbus builds so called fly-by-wire aircraft (meaning the controls in the cockpit are linked to the movable surfaces on the airplane by electrical wires and computers), engineers in Toulouse have gone out of their way to demonstrate their products are safe in stormy weather. There are four fully redundant electrical systems on an Airbus - and if the worst happens a manual flight control system that allows the crew to manipulate the rudder and the fine aero-surface controls called trim tabs.

Interestingly, one of the systems most vulnerable to lightning strikes is the on-board weather radar located in the nose cone. It cannot do its job if it is shielded from lightning like the rest of the airplane - and so it is more likely to go down when lightning strikes (which is of course when you need it most).

So it is possible this plane was hit by lightning, knocking out the radar. The crew was suddenly preoccupied with an electrical failure, in the dark, over the ocean and without weather radar as they hurtled toward some epic cumulus nimbus thunderheads. Most Captains prefer to be on the flight deck for take-off and landing. Was the most seasoned aviator in his bunk when all this transpired?

The fact that the airplane sent a message that it had an electrical problem means, by definition, that it was not a total, instant failure. But did things cascade from there? They might have found themselves inside a huge storm only able to control the airplane manually - which means minimally - with the rudder primarily.

You may recall the crash of American Airlines flight 587 on November 12, 2001 as it departed New York's JFK airport. The plane encountered some wake turbulence and the copilot apparently stepped too hard on the rudder pedals - breaking off the graphite vertical stabilizer and rudder (the tail).

Even today's advanced - seemingly invincible - airliners care no match for Mother Nature on a bad night. If the conditions conspire against you, even a big airliner can be torn to pieces in an instant.

We do know whatever happened on that airplane in its last few minutes was nothing short of horrifying. My heart goes out to the passengers and crew.

Will we ever know what happened? This one will be hard. The wreckage will be likely strewn over a wide area - and locating the Flight Data and Cockpit Voice Recorders won't be easy since they are likely at the bottom of the sea - hopefully emitting their distinctive "pinging" noise. But just knowing where to home in for a search will be difficult.

[Widow]

"It seems the zone has been identified down to within 10 nautical miles," Borloo said on France 2 state television.

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?fi ... rldupdates

Is that weather still current in the area?

[Changes in Latitudes]

That radar image is very interesting. How high would those cells be? I dont fly over the ocean, so I ask: No radar area... Is this area RVSM? What happens when you contour these big cells flying so close to other aircraft?

That's an IR Satellite image, not a radar image. Cells over that area of the planet, I have seen echo tops in excess of 60,000ft. Ugly and mean.

[Finn47]

Lots of different nationalities on board, according to this AF press release:

Paris, 01 juin 2009 - 19h41 heure locale
Communiqué N° 5
Air France est en mesure de confirmer les nationalités des passagers qui se trouvaient à bord du vol AF 447 du 31 mai 2009, disparu entre Rio de Janeiro et Paris-Charles de Gaulle. Cette liste a été constituée sur la base des informations fournies par les autorités brésiliennes.

1 Africain du Sud
26 Allemands-Germans
2 Américains- US
1 Argentin
1 Autrichien- Austrians
1 Belge
58 Brésiliens
5 Britanniques
1 Canadien
9 Chinois
1 Croate
1 Danois
2 Espagnols
1 Estonien
61 Français
1 Gambien
4 Hongrois
3 Irlandais-Irish
1 Islandais
9 Italiens
5 Libanais
2 Marocains
1 Néerlandais-Netherlands
3 Norvégiens-Norwegians
1 Philippin
2 Polonais
1 Roumain
1 Russe
3 Slovaques
1 Suédois-Swedes
6 Suisses
1 Turc

[sepia]

I remember when the initial news reports were calling the Air France Toronto overrun lightning induced too. I even called into 680 news and tried to correct them. They didn't want to listen. Lightning seems to evoke some kind of primal fear. Striking without warning, and with no time to avoid it.

I'm not saying that this couldn't have been lighting. I'm just saying that they haven't even found a single scap of this heavy airliner and already people are lining up telling you their pet theories. I truly hope that they not only find the CVR and FDR but survivors. It would truly be a miracle to have two successful ditchings in a year.

[Cubester]

I remember when the initial news reports were calling the Air France Toronto overrun lightning induced too. I even called into 680 news and tried to correct them. They didn't want to listen. Lightning seems to evoke some kind of primal fear. Striking without warning, and with no time to avoid it.

I'm not saying that this couldn't have been lighting. I'm just saying that they haven't even found a single scap of this heavy airliner and already people are lining up telling you their pet theories. I truly hope that they not only find the CVR and FDR but survivors. It would truly be a miracle to have two successful ditchings in a year.

Well said Sepia. "Air France jet crashes into Atlantic with 228 aboard" is really started to annoy me. Nothing has been proven or found but these headlines are everywhere. I hope all the pax are on a beautifil deserted island in the Pacific eating coconuts.

Piss on the media.

Cube

[rigpiggy]

Maybe this will be the catalyst to get satellite tracking systems in airliners. may not save anyone, but would make finding them alot easier

[Icebound]

Aeroplanes with carbon fibre parts have been struck by lightning many times before without incident.

Unfortunately, the issue is not so much composite or metal construction.... as it is the nature of the lightning.

All lightning is not the same. While some lightning is discharged from the aircraft without incident,
some may form a tiny pinhole or two in the skin....

....and SOME destroys aircraft. Just about a year ago: http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?ev_i ... 0745&key=1


...

[Mach1]

Well said Sepia. "Air France jet crashes into Atlantic with 228 aboard" is really started to annoy me. Nothing has been proven or found but these headlines are everywhere. I hope all the pax are on a beautifil deserted island in the Pacific eating coconuts.
Cube

Now that would be a trick considering that they were flying over the Atlantic but, I truly hope that you are right and that we all get to hear the tale told about how they got there nice and safe.

[Siddley Hawker]

Don't know how accurate this report is.

http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1243889028.html

[hairdo]

Although there were aircraft in front and following (as previous reports have said), the were 30mins and 2 hours apart. As we should all know, thunderstorms can build, dissipate, and move considerably in those time frames. I still don't think lightning took them down, but stranger things have happened.

Waiting to hear further.

[sky_flyer]

Well said Sepia. "Air France jet crashes into Atlantic with 228 aboard" is really started to annoy me. Nothing has been proven or found but these headlines are everywhere. I hope all the pax are on a beautifil deserted island in the Pacific eating coconuts.
Cube

Now that would be a trick considering that they were flying over the Atlantic but, I truly hope that you are right and that we all get to hear the tale told about how they got there nice and safe.

+1 salut hoping for
some ggod news/miricle

[meflypretty]

Withholding any speculation. Liking the deserted island idea, hoping for a happy ending.

[Icebound]

Don't know how accurate this report is.

http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1243889028.html

That article ends with the statement:

"The idea is based on a principle known as a Faraday Cage, which protects passengers inside a mesh of conducting material."

This is a statement that we have all heard before, and which leads us into a false sense of security around thunderstorms.


The "faraday-cage" is especially true with respect to automobiles. And yet.... EVERY SO OFTEN .... we get reports of hits through the winndshield or rear window!?!? http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/archive ... -6150.html (although the pic links are old and broken)

Water-wave studies have shown that about one wave in 2600 has a "5% chance of being higher than 5 times the prevalent wave height" for a particular wind condition. The so-called "rogue" wave.... a 40-footer when the prevalent is 6 or 8 feet.

There are plenty of reports of "unusual" lightning damage. Perhaps it is not beyond possibility that... while "normally", lightning produces only minimum damage.... there is always that one strike in a million which is a "rogue".


...

[canwhitewolf]

google earth weather brazil on left africa on right

the intertropical convergence zone...bad ass weather

bright white is not right weather here

The region where the northeasterly and southeasterly trade winds converge, forming an often continuous band of clouds or thunderstorms near the equator.

[20DMEYYZ]

sad news . read that a TAM crew reported possible fuel fire on ocean surface in the region ... not good .

[Sulako]

This just in from a Russian news website - they claim that wreckage has been found off the cost of Senegal, though Air France has not yet confirmed it belongs to AF447.


http://translate.google.com/translate?p ... ry_state0=

Senegal has found the wreckage


Air France did not confirm the detection of fragments of the missing Airbus off the coast of West African States


The search for the missing aircraft continues 2 июня 2009, 08:56 2 Jun., 2009, 08:56


The authorities in Senegal have found in the territorial waters of the wreckage, which could belong to passenger aircraft Airbus 330-200, disappeared over the Atlantic. Airline Air France and the crisis headquarters set up by the Government of France, has not yet confirmed this information. Meanwhile, the chances of survival of people practically reduced to zero. This is evidenced by statements by the pilots of one of Brazil's airlines, which claimed to have seen the tragic fate of the liner.

During a search operation off the coast of Senegal were found fragments of the aircraft, which could belong to missing A-330, the agency Globu with reference to the leadership of West African States.





Airline Air France and the crisis headquarters set up by the Government of France, has not yet confirmed this information. Between the coast of Brazil and the African coast of the search. The operation involving five aircraft and two Air Force helicopters in Brazil. Court's attempt to capture the signals of distress beacons with black boxes Airbus.

In the area of searches came frigate, corvette and patrol boat navy country. Promotion of the Brazilian authorities to conduct a search operation to the Government of France and the United States, transmits RIA «News".


Meanwhile, the chances of survival of people practically reduced to zero. This is evidenced by statements by the pilots of one of Brazil's airlines, which claimed to have seen the tragic fate of the liner.
During a flight over the Atlantic the crew members of flight airline TAM noticed in the vicinity of a possible crash orange spots on the surface of the ocean. Information about vspolohah water was obtained in half an hour after air traffic controllers reported failure of electronic systems, received the aircraft from Air France.

[flying4dollars]

Oh god

[Sulako]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html

Wreckage has been found in the Atlantic Ocean that could have come from a missing Air France jet that disappeared Monday with 228 passengers and crew on board, Brazilian aviation officials said Tuesday.

Floating objects and seats were found 720 kilometers (447 miles) from the island of Fernando de Noronha, said Brazilian Air Force spokesman Jorge Amaral.

Fernando de Noronha is an archipelago 220 miles (354 kilometers) east of the Brazilian coast.

The area where the debris was found is roughly along the flight route of of flight 447.

The search will continue, but there is not enough material yet to officially say this is the wreckage from Flight 447, Maral said.

Brazilian, French and Senegalese rescue teams were combing vast sections of the Atlantic on Tuesday.

A report of "shiny spots" in the sea along the route of Flight 447 by a crew from the Brazilian airline TAM prompted a search in the territorial waters off Senegal, but without result.

The Airbus A330, carrying 228 people, encountered heavy turbulence early Monday, some three hours after it began the 11-hour flight from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to Paris, France, according to Air France CEO Pierre-Henri Gourgeon.

At that point, the plane's automatic system initiated a four-minute series of messages to the company's maintenance computers, indicating that "several pieces of aircraft equipment were at fault or had broken down," he told reporters.

During that time, there was no contact with the crew, Gourgeon said.

"It was probable that it was a little bit after those messages that the impact of the plane took place in the Atlantic," he added.

The Airbus A330 was off radar and probably closer to Brazil than to Africa at the time, he said.

Two squadrons from Brazil's air force launched a search near the archipelago of Fernando de Noronha in the Atlantic Ocean, about 365 kilometers (225 miles) from Brazil's coast, an air force spokesman told CNN. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said France sent ships and planes to an area about 400 kilometers (250 miles) from Brazil. See map of suspected crash zone »

"Our Spanish friends are helping us, Brazilians are helping us a lot as well," he said.

The average depth of the Atlantic is close to 12,000 feet -- more than 2 miles.

The plane carried 216 passengers -- 126 men, 82 women, seven children and a baby -- and 12 crew members, Air France said. Of the crew, 11 were French and one was Brazilian. Video Watch latest report on missing aircraft »

An official list of victims' names was not available late Monday, but the only two Americans on board -- Michael Harris, 60, and his wife, Anne, 54 -- were identified by the couple's family and his employer.

"Anne and Mike were indeed a beautiful couple inside and out, and I miss them terribly already," said Anne Harris' sister, Mary Miley.
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Michael Harris was a geologist in Rio de Janeiro for Devon Energy, the largest U.S.-based independent natural gas and oil producer, according to a company spokesman.

The couple had lived in the city since July 2008 and was traveling to Paris for a training seminar for Michael and for a vacation, Miley told CNN.

Another passenger was Prince Pedro Luis de Orleans e Braganca, a member of Brazil's non-reigning royal family, his family confirmed Monday. Pedro Luis was 26.

In addition, a spokeswoman for the French tire company Michelin told CNN that two company executives were on board the aircraft. She identified them as the president of Michelin Latin America, Luiz Roberto Anastacio, and the director of informatics, Antonio Gueiros. She added that Michelin was very saddened by their presumed deaths.

The airline identified the nationalities of the other victims as: Argentine (1); Austrian (1); Belgian (1); Brazilian (58); British (5); Canadian (1); Chinese (9); Croatian (1); Danish (1); Dutch (1); Estonian (1); Filipino (1); French (61); Gambian (1); German (26); Hungarian (4); Icelandic (1); Irish (3); Italian (9); Lebanese (5); Moroccan (2); Norwegian (3); Polish (2); Romanian (1); Russian (1); Slovakian (3); Spanish (2); Swedish (1); Swiss (6); Turkish (1).

The jet was 4 years old and had last undergone routine maintenance on April 16. Video Watch report on what could have caused aircraft to go down »

Its crew included three pilots, including a 58-year-old captain who had logged 11,000 hours in flight, and nine cabin crew members, Air France said in a statement. Some 1,700 of the captain's hours were on two Airbus models. Of the two co-pilots -- ages 37 and 32 -- one had 3,000 hours of flying experience and the other 6,600 hours. The aircraft had flown 18,870 hours, the statement said.

Of the passengers, 149 had planned to connect to flights going elsewhere in Europe or as far away as China, Gourgeon said.

"This is a catastrophe the likes of which Air France has never seen before," Sarkozy told reporters at Charles de Gaulle International Airport, where he had met with relatives of those missing aboard the flight.

"I said the truth to them: The prospects of finding survivors are very low," he said. Video Watch comments from Sarkozy »

France asked the U.S. military to assist in the search with U.S. detection satellites, French Transport Minister Jean-Louis Borloo told CNN affiliate France 2. Pentagon officials did not immediately confirm the request.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva told reporters in San Salvador, El Salvador, that he had spoken with Sarkozy, but neither leader knew what to say.

"All we could do was thank each other," Lula said. "He thanked me for the speed with which the Brazilian air force took charge."

He added, "In times like these, there is little to do but to deeply lament, to wish the families a lot of strength, because there are no words."

The jet, which was flying at 35,000 feet and at 521 mph, also sent a warning that it had lost pressure, the Brazilian air force said.

The jet took off from Rio de Janeiro's Galeao International Airport at 11:30 p.m. Sunday. Its last known contact occurred at 02:33 a.m. Monday, the Brazilian air force spokesman said. It was not clear what that final contact was.

It was expected to check in with air traffic controllers at 03:20 a.m. but did not do so. Brazilian authorities asked the air force to launch a search mission just over three hours later.

[Siddley Hawker]

The jet, which was flying at 35,000 feet and at 521 mph, also sent a warning that it had lost pressure, the Brazilian air force said.

Here's a little more on that from AvHerald.

Sources within Air France reported, that the automatic message did not only report an electrical short circuit, but also the loss of cabin pressure. This information has been confirmed by FAB, who also stated, that the position of the airplane was given as N3.5777 W30.3744 in that message.

New information provided by sources within Air France suggests, that the ACARS messages of system failures started to arrive at 02:10Z indicating, that the autopilot had disengaged and the fly by wire system had changed to alternate law. Between 02:11Z and 02:13Z a flurry of messages regarding ADIRU and ISIS faults arrived, at 02:13Z PRIM 1 and SEC 1 faults were indicated, at 02:14Z the last message received was an advisory regarding cabin vertical speed. That sequence of messages could not be independently verified

[CAL]

that sounds horrible......almost sounds like an inflight break up...
adding to the speculation that an electrical problem may have knocked out the radar....out there at night that would be bad...but as we all know...its all speculation unless they can find the boxes..