Jazz to become Air Canada Express.

[dcabrown]

Doesn't the current scope agreement prevent AC from having regionals fly anything smaller than 76 seats? If so, is that a permanent thing? or something that has to be renegotiated every so often?

[CANAM]

CANAM Your an idiot.

First off, its pretty hard to find the number of planes that Jazz currently has--not something that can be replaced over night. That being said, if Air Canada and the pilots want to play this stupid game, of race to the bottom, in the foolish hopes that they might see an extra buck or two, I think the end game might not be very tasteful to you. Jazz's balance sheet looks a hole lot better than yours--we can go in circles and argue why that is, but for now, it is what it is--and come 2020, i think it's Air Canada that would be in a far worse position than Jazz should Jazz simply say, go F*#K yourselves.

But hey, time will tell. But something tells me that when the ball drops, it won't be Jazz that's left out in the cold... or the pilots.

I put forth a compelling and well educated forecast and your retort is to call me an idiot?

I never said that Jazz's days are doomed or that the end is near. My point is that under the present arrangement with Air Canada, things are going to change. Change happens and it's a reality that we must accept. AC simply wants to diversify their regional partners and it makes perfect sense on their end by allowing more competition. Competition will lead to lower wages, because the new airlines will have to compete for the released flying. I do think that Jazz has some oppertunities on other fronts, but right now their largest partner wants change. I think it's safe to say that even Jazz's management knows this, hense their attempts at diversification. But hey, I'm just an idiot.

[truedude]

I put forth a compelling and well educated forecast and your retort is to call me an idiot?

I have been wondering when this was going to begin. For years, I have no doubt that Air Canada has been looking south at the American regional market with great admiration. That is, many lowpaying regionals constantly trying to undercut eachother for a piece flying. The new United Airlines regional system will consist of ExpressJet, Commutair, Colgan, Chautauqua, Gulfstream, Atlantic Southeast, Shuttle America, Mesa, Skywest, GoJets and Trans States.

When Jazz's capacity purchass agreement is nearing it's conclusion, look for Air Canada to tender an offer from all 704/705 operators in Canada to replace their flying. You will see the bidding war that has existed down south 35 years. Mark my words, you will see Bearskin, Perimeter, Thunder Airlines, Calm Air, ect. all flying under Air Canada Express very very soon. Put it this way, some Dash8 Captains in the US make $37,000/year. Compare that to the $75-108,000 some Dash8 Captains make at Jazz. There is no way this will continue in Canada once the bidding starts.

If this is what you consider to be a "compelling and well educated" forecast, then I stand by my retort.

Your "well" educated forecast, is overly simplistic. You simply can not predict the next nine years with any sort of reliability to draw the conclusions you made with any kind of certainty.
Here are but a few things that can through your "educated" forecast to the breeze
a) Oil prices
b) economic outlook--the 90's are over, and the world has changed
c) what country the west happens to be at war with
d) Related to C, who is president of the United States
e) the Air Canada pilots who happen to be running the union over there in nine years
f) Air Canada--will it even exist ( I bet on yes, and believe this to be a good thing)

And the list goes on....

So, as stated earlier, your an idiot.

[Changes in Latitudes]

"you're an idiot" would probably help your case slightly.

[CANAM]

If this is what you consider to be a "compelling and well educated" forecast, then I stand by my retort.

Your "well" educated forecast, is overly simplistic. You simply can not predict the next nine years with any sort of reliability to draw the conclusions you made with any kind of certainty.
Here are but a few things that can through your "educated" forecast to the breeze
a) Oil prices
b) economic outlook--the 90's are over, and the world has changed
c) what country the west happens to be at war with
d) Related to C, who is president of the United States
e) the Air Canada pilots who happen to be running the union over there in nine years
f) Air Canada--will it even exist ( I bet on yes, and believe this to be a good thing)

And the list goes on....

So, as stated earlier, your an idiot.

The above mentioned are called uncontrollable variables. These are things that no business model can forecast and therefore, are quite useless. You could have just as easily mentioned asteroids. Air Canada will be doing things that are controllable on their end. I suggest you pick up a high school business textbook before you call somebody else an idiot.

And I believe you meant to write, "you're an idiot" and not "your and idiot." But hey, I guess you're the bright one, right?

[Localizer]

Mark my words, you will see Bearskin, Perimeter, Thunder Airlines, Calm Air, ect. all flying under Air Canada Express very very soon.

Thunder is pretty much a medevac service .. Bearskin makes enough money on its own that it really doesn't need to attach itself to a boat anchor like Air Canada. (Calm Air would also fit in this category) If I was a betting man .. my only pick from your list would be Perimeter .. mind you, they're owned by the same group as Bearskin and Calm Air.

It would take a lot of cash upfront for a smaller operator to jump into the "Air Canada Express" world. I can't see too many operators willing to sacrifice their bread and butter for a little extra cash .. because that is the point isn't it?? Get someone else to do it cheaper?? Too much risk and not enough reward for the little guy. IMO.

[truedude]

"you're an idiot" would probably help your case slightly.

LOL touché

The above mentioned are called uncontrollable variables.

That's my point. Almost everything in aviation are uncontrollable variables. Just like the Air Canada pilots turning down a shitty TA has forced them to start hiring, who knows what will happen in nine years. But I highly doubt it will be the scenario you envision playing out.

[xTally]

There is that common saying... "there's always someone else willing to do your job for less!"

I think this applies very nicely to the situation. Although I couldn't see all Jazz's flying disappearing in 9 years as 1500 pilots is no easy task to replace, a slow erosion over time seems quite feasible. Hopefully, Jazz management is quite aware of this and is working hard to provide other sources of work.

Of course alot of crazy things can happen in 9 years but it still never hurts to be prepared for the worst!

[TKTguy]

I'm thinking AC sould be looking over their shoulders when it comes to erosion of flying.
AC will constantly be looking to cut costs. For years the only profitable parts of AC
was the regionals, Aeroplan and MTC. Thanks to Uncle Milty they have since been sold off. The core AC flying was never that profitable. Everyone here talks about the cost of the CPA and yet I haven't seen any info about the revenue that the CPA generates. I guess time will tell.

[Mig29]

Just give it up guys.....how do you manage to make news out of nothing??? It's just paint job and name change on Jazz's fleet!

If some of you find it entertaining or amusing to see Jazz fold over the years, then just make sure you look behind you as well, as it will sweep across the board. We should stick together in this industry!

[Dark Helmet]

Under that same logic, where do you think the EMB's will end up in 9 years? The tone of this thread makes me think we actually want this to happen in the Canadian airline industry...not a good attitude in my opinion.

Bingo!!!!

I don't get it. Years ago, people were bashing Jazz bacause of the fo pay. They were saying Jazz was the ghetto of Canadian Aviation, and that their pilots were bringing down the industry because they accpeted a job there.

Now the same people are saying that Jazz is too expensive and that other airlines should do that work for cheaper .

I don't get this anti-Jazz mentality, Did these people get turned down by Jazz?

Since we are all predicting the future, I am gonna give it a try also.

First of all, Calm Air and Bearskin will probably not bid for AC CPA flying. Both companies are unionized (ALPA) plus they have profitable niche markets. They are better off growing on their own and opening up codeshare agreements with other carriers vs giving up their markets and becoming solely dependent on AC.

Look at South of the border, Many CPA carriers cannot afford to stay in business because of their margins are so thin. They are either going bankrupt or merging with other carriers.

AC will most likely tender the CPA out to non-unionized fly by night operators, with no contracts and seniority. meaning.

They will be flying regional sized aircraft for poverty wages, and paying for their training bonds.

Many experienced Jazz pilots will be laid off thus flooding the pilot pool and making jobs scarce. Meaning that if you work for a 703/704 ops, I hope you enjoy your seat because all the Nice Airline, Contract, and Corporate job will probably be taken by the more experienced Jazz pilot that just got laid off.

Chances are that these companies that get awarded the CPA flying will most likely hire the laid off
Jazz pilots as DEC ahead of its current pilots. Hey, it is lot easier cheaper to train someone who already has a PPC.

If you are at AC, I hope you enjoy your current wage and working conditions. AC will have no motivation to give their pilots more money when there are pilots who are willing to do it for cheaper.

If you have 200 hours, I hope you like the ramp because you will be there for a long time.
In the end there will be 0 movement in the industry. And 0 improvements.

Careful what you wish for…..

[Mig29]

Spot on Dark Helmet!!

This thread is a waste of time....