Kenn Borek Antarctic Cause/Speculation Thread

[Doc]

I'm not even going to get in on this one, It was too close to home. I'll just sit on the sidelines and "monitor" the thread. I will take "blueoval56" at his word and assume he's on the level. That being said, let the guys with the 20/20 hindsight at it. Try and stay safe everybody. Do what you were trained to do. Be familiar with your environment. STL's on the better track. Situational awareness is one of the most important aspects of what we do.

[xsever]

If you are a PPL and encounter cloud, get the hell out. TC has a great article entitled 178 Seconds to Live. Google it and take it to heart as it could save you life and your friends.
Fly safe!
GK

Watched it several times and understood it even better yesterday during my encounter.

How hard is it to develop an equipment that would give you a 360 proximity sense? Just like a radio altimeter but not only perpendicular to the ground.

This should prove very effective and life-saving for planes that must operate in similar locations where very few dare flying. IF they made a turn too soon, this equipment would have reported an obstacle 1000 ft ahead for example.

I trying to discuss solutions rather than speculate on what happened as we do not know anything of solid value yet.

[Lost in Saigon]

If you are a PPL and encounter cloud, get the hell out. TC has a great article entitled 178 Seconds to Live. Google it and take it to heart as it could save you life and your friends.
Fly safe!
GK

Watched it several times and understood it even better yesterday during my encounter.

How hard is it to develop an equipment that would give you a 360 proximity sense? Just like a radio altimeter but not only perpendicular to the ground.

This should prove very effective and life-saving for planes that must operate in similar locations where very few dare flying. IF they made a turn too soon, this equipment would have reported an obstacle 1000 ft ahead for example.

I trying to discuss solutions rather than speculate on what happened as we do not know anything of solid value yet.

They already have such a system. It's called EGPWS Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pro ... ing_system

The older GPWS almost saved American Airlines down in Cali, Columbia, but they forgot that they still had the speedbrakes extended. I am sure it has saved countless lives since then. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_A ... Flight_965

In the late 1990s improvements were made and the system was renamed "Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System" (EGPWS/TAWS). The system was now combined with a worldwide digital terrain database and relies on Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. On-board computers compared its current location with a database of the Earth's terrain. The Terrain Display now gave pilots a visual orientation to high and low points nearby the aircraft.

EGPWS software improvements were focused on solving two common problems; no warning at all, and late or improper response.

[shamrock104]

I sat down and was going to give a opinion on what I thought or believed could have been possible causes. I thought about it for a while and when the time came I just couldnt bring myself to even express those opinions. As we are all well aware it could be one of many reasons and I am not even remotely qualified to speculate on the probable causes so to spare the grief and further pain of the families involved I chose not to. Instead I would rather wait for the experts and until the investigation is complete which hopefully will improve safety even further so this can be prevented from happening again.

[co-joe]

TAWS is the answer. No it wasn't required but maybe one day it will be. Isn't TAWS or EGPWS required in Alaska? Standard GPWS is almost useless in mountains as it relies solely on the rad alt which is pointing straight down and can't detect a mountain with steep rising terrain right in front of you.

[CpnCrunch]

As I understand it (correct me if I'm wrong), there is currently no high-res DEM data for Antarctica, so you won't get any terrain awareness. According to wikipedia "In 2014, acquisitions from radar satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X will be available in the form of a uniform global coverage with a resolution of 12 meters".

Still, it seems odd that they didn't at least have some kind of moving map GPS given that we have highly detailed charts of the area.

One thing that seems odd is that the ELT coords are a few miles off from where they actually crashed. Any idea why that is? Did the ELT not have a GPS?

PS I'm not the same person as captcrunch2013.

[Dagwood]

I assume they would be navigating solely by GPS down there.

I wonder if there was some form of GPS disturbance. That might explain why they "turned too soon" as well as the wrong ELT location.

[Doc]

Your two friends in this business are runway in front of you, and lots of air under your ass. I'm done.

[ragbagflyer]

Bear in mind that many (if not most) 406 MHz elt's don't have built in GPS receivers. They usually need to be linked to the on-board gps to get that information but it's not required. However, the 406 MHz signal alone can be located to within approx 1 to 3 nm for an initial search area of 25 sq nm. This can account for a discrepancy between an assumed and actual ELT position. I have no knowledge of what equipment the KBA machine had on board. I do know though that people frequently assume all 406 MHz beacons provide gps level accuracy.

[CamAero]

Were they SPOT / Spidertrax equipped?

[maDDtraPPer]

I sat down and was going to give a opinion on what I thought or believed could have been possible causes. I thought about it for a while and when the time came I just couldnt bring myself to even express those opinions. As we are all well aware it could be one of many reasons and I am not even remotely qualified to speculate on the probable causes so to spare the grief and further pain of the families involved I chose not to. Instead I would rather wait for the experts and until the investigation is complete which hopefully will improve safety even further so this can be prevented from happening again.

I said the same thing in a very not politically correct way and my post was deleted in minutes. This thread is in bad taste while our friends are scattered on the side of a mountain peak.

[Changes in Latitudes]

I sat down and was going to give a opinion on what I thought or believed could have been possible causes. I thought about it for a while and when the time came I just couldnt bring myself to even express those opinions. As we are all well aware it could be one of many reasons and I am not even remotely qualified to speculate on the probable causes so to spare the grief and further pain of the families involved I chose not to. Instead I would rather wait for the experts and until the investigation is complete which hopefully will improve safety even further so this can be prevented from happening again.

I said the same thing in a very not politically correct way and my post was deleted in minutes. This thread is in bad taste while our friends are scattered on the side of a mountain peak.

I have to agree on this one, I've rarely seen anything intelligent come out of the accident speculation threads on this website. The extreme minority of aviators that have ever even set foot in this part of the world only strengthens that notion. We as professionals have a duty to learn from every accident and mis-hap in our industry, but speculation with zero evidence or facts isn't going to help much at the moment.

Perhaps many of us are a little over-sensitive right now, but I think that's reasonable as well.

[crazy horse]

I said the same thing in a very not politically correct way and my post was deleted in minutes. This thread is in bad taste while our friends are scattered on the side of a mountain peak.

The thread isn't in bad taste if the content is respectful. You can't stop people from talking about it and if some valid questions arise and some knowledge is exchanged there is no harm. Your avatar could be construed as in bad taste to some.

[ragbagflyer]

While I wouldn't go so far as to say it's in bad taste, - it's normal to want to know what went wrong - it does seem to me that there isn't enough publicly available information to even make educated guesses at this point. All that's really been said is that the aircraft contacted the terrain. There are so many possibilities that educated speculation is pretty much impossible. Hopefully the recovered CVR along with photos and information gathered from the accident scene can answer some questions. One thing that I keep thinking though is that if it can happen to a guy like Bob Heath, it can happen to anybody.

[lilfssister]

Bad taste or not it is going to happen on here as we all know from history. It had already started. So we created a thread to keep it out of the other one.

[Doc]

I knew Bob well enough to know he'd want us not to follow in his last footsteps. I hear the folks who say "we weren't there"....."that we haven't stepped foot in the area....." etc., etc., Personally, I'm not speculating on this one. But I won't hold it against those who do. At the same time keep in mind, the guy your "second guessing" is a close friend to several of us here. He was a gentleman, who would go out on a limb for anyone of you. He had more experience than the great majority of you. Tread gently. Fly safe.

[CID]

I'd like to present an scenario for discussion.

The observations made by the SPOT could be explained by the airplane flying above overcast above the mountain range. I would assume there was no visual contact otherwise they wouldn't have been flying so high. They would have maintained MSA for that segment until they passed the mountain (or thought they did) then descend and correct the course for the next leg. Then, perhaps, upon realizing they weren't quite clear of the mountain range, they attempted to climb back up to a safe altitude before hitting the mountain side. Very similar to what happened years ago in Cali. The navigation error could have easily been a programming error (no predefined waypoints to make a flight plan from) or a GPS fault either equipment on-board or a satellite constellation error. Maybe even a mag-true error or sun/star shot reading error resulting in the compass being misaligned.

I would assume they would want to descend as soon as possible from 15K (or so) so they could get off the oxygen.

Some TAWS systems include Antarctica in the terrain database but I don't know if the aircraft was so equipped. Of course crazy winds that may have caused a bad crab angle may have made the terrain display show the potential threatening terrain off to the side and not straight ahead. Totally possible for an airplane that flies in the low 100s while in atmosphere with severe winds.

There may have been other things to contend with at the time like an equipment failure, engine failure, medical distress or any other factors that induced extra workload. Based on the experience of the flight crew I assume the cause will be quite complicated.

[sky's the limit]

Bad taste or not it is going to happen on here as we all know from history. It had already started. So we created a thread to keep it out of the other one.

This^^^

As far as I know, there is nothing about reading Avcanada that is mandatory, much less any of the individual threads. If you don't want to click on it, then don't, you have that choice.

As I posted early in the other thread, people have very different and personal ways of dealing with situations like this, and for some people just talking about it is therapy enough. If you cannot respect that, then at least refrain from passing down judgement. I realize many of you do not have experience with losing people on a regular basis, but I can assure you the process of dealing with these events is very personal. If people want to talk about it in a professional or inquisitive manner, then that is what Avcanada is for.

I may remind you all that Bob was friends with many of us here, and that includes the Mods. There will be NOTHING disrespectful about the accident allowed here, of that you have my word. However, in my humble opinion, the posts suggesting ill-intent and disrespect are perhaps the most disrespectful so far... Whatever you choose to post, consider it closely beforehand.

stl

[Sulako]

As far as I know, there is nothing about reading Avcanada that is mandatory, much less any of the individual threads. If you don't want to click on it, then don't, you have that choice.

As I posted early in the other thread, people have very different and personal ways of dealing with situations like this, and for some people just talking about it is therapy enough. If you cannot respect that, then at least refrain from passing down judgement. I realize many of you do not have experience with losing people on a regular basis, but I can assure the process of dealing with these events is very personal. If people want to talk about it in a professional or inquisitive manner, then that is what Avcanada is for.

I may remind you all that Bob was friends with many of us here, and that includes the Mods. There will be NOTHING disrespectful about the accident allowed here, of that you have my word. However, in my humble opinion, the posts suggesting ill-intent and disrespect are perhaps the most disrespectful so far... Whatever you choose to post, consider it closely beforehand.

stl

This ^^^

[grimey]

At the same time keep in mind, the guy your "second guessing" is a close friend to several of us here. He was a gentleman, who would go out on a limb for anyone of you. He had more experience than the great majority of you. Tread gently. Fly safe.

And that's the "problem" of course. In most accidents, the crew involved is only well known by a few of us, and provided people aren't being offensive, everything's OK as far as speculation goes. But it's very difficult to contemplate that someone who you respected may have made critical errors that were out of character for them, especially when they can't describe or defend their actions themselves. But if the last few months have taught us anything, it should be that you can have any combination of tens thousands of hours, exceptional skills, a well maintained aircraft, a proper attitude, and great weather, and things can still go wrong. And it's important to talk about out how and why those things happen, both to hopefully prevent others from doing the same, and to cope with the loss of our friends.

[squawk]

May have been quoted on another thread but should be reiterated here.

"The readiness to blame a dead pilot for an accident is nauseating, but it has been the tendency ever since I can remember. What pilot has not been in positions where he was in danger and where perfect judgment would have advised against going? But when a man is caught in such a position he is judged only by his error and seldom given credit for the times he has extricated himself from worse situations. Worst of all, blame is heaped upon him by other pilots, all of whom have been in parallel situations themselves, but without being caught in them. If one took no chances, one would not fly at all. Safety lies in the judgment of the chances one takes. That judgment, in turn, must rest upon one's outlook on life. Any coward can sit in his home and criticize a pilot for flying into a mountain in fog. But I would rather, by far, die on a mountainside than in bed. Why should we look for his errors when a brave man dies? Unless we can learn from his experience, there is no need to look for weakness. Rather, we should admire the courage and spirit in his life. What kind of man would live where there is no daring? And is life so dear that we should blame men for dying in adventure? Is there a better way to die?"
Charles Lindbergh 1938

[CID]

I don't think anyone has implied recklessness on the part of any human in this accident. In fact, most people have indicated that Mr. Heath was quite experienced and skilled. A discussion about the possible circumstances is valuable in that it stimulates discussion. Hopefully more positive discussion than negative.

It's not difficult to discuss the technical aspects of the accidents and even speculate on its cause while maintaining proper respect and sensitivity for the humans involved.

[JayVee]

I knew Bob well enough to know he'd want us not to follow in his last footsteps. I hear the folks who say "we weren't there"....."that we haven't stepped foot in the area....." etc., etc., Personally, I'm not speculating on this one. But I won't hold it against those who do. At the same time keep in mind, the guy your "second guessing" is a close friend to several of us here. He was a gentleman, who would go out on a limb for anyone of you. He had more experience than the great majority of you. Tread gently. Fly safe.

^^^
THIS

edited cuz my chevrons turned into a laughing viking..

[cncpc]

I'm reading this with interest and respect, but make no comment. I have no experience of Antartica and I defer to those who do.

[cncpc]

May have been quoted on another thread but should be reiterated here.

"The readiness to blame a dead pilot for an accident is nauseating, but it has been the tendency ever since I can remember. What pilot has not been in positions where he was in danger and where perfect judgment would have advised against going? But when a man is caught in such a position he is judged only by his error and seldom given credit for the times he has extricated himself from worse situations. Worst of all, blame is heaped upon him by other pilots, all of whom have been in parallel situations themselves, but without being caught in them. If one took no chances, one would not fly at all. Safety lies in the judgment of the chances one takes. That judgment, in turn, must rest upon one's outlook on life. Any coward can sit in his home and criticize a pilot for flying into a mountain in fog. But I would rather, by far, die on a mountainside than in bed. Why should we look for his errors when a brave man dies? Unless we can learn from his experience, there is no need to look for weakness. Rather, we should admire the courage and spirit in his life. What kind of man would live where there is no daring? And is life so dear that we should blame men for dying in adventure? Is there a better way to die?"
Charles Lindbergh 1938

I am a great admirer of Charles Lindbergh. I once drove the ghastly road to Hana to visit his grave at Kipahulu. We should remember he was called The Lone Eagle. The words above are written in a different age of aviation, one in which he was unquestionably the pre-eminent figure. These words are fitting for when a pilot dies alone, as was often the case in those days. In our modern age, pilots can be responsible for the lives of hundreds of people. Or of one other person, or two, and so on. In that modern context, aviation, for its own credibility and security, must always ask why someone died, simply to try and prevent that cause being a cause again.

It's a lovely quote, and it speaks to something in some of us that harkens back to a bygone day, but the hard truth is death is never pretty, and whether adventure makes it pretty is a dubious claim. Had Lindbergh died in an airplane, these would have been very appropriate. He didn't, however, and we have moved on from the time in which they were.