Layoffs

[Fanblade]

Go look at the last bid. Go right to the bottom. Subtract required pilots from active pilots. The vacancy/reductions column does it for you.

That number is the MINIMUM number of positions that need to be removed. Add a possible 600 to it.

So hypothetically it is -1500 where 900 is pilots that were never hired from the previous bid and then 600 from layoffs of active pilots?

Yes. Don’t forget ERIP will play a factor.

Hopefully we hold it to the 900 not yet hired.

[rudder]

Go look at the last bid. Go right to the bottom. Subtract required pilots from active pilots. The vacancy/reductions column does it for you.

That number is the MINIMUM number of positions that need to be removed. Add a possible 600 to it.

So hypothetically it is -1500 where 900 is pilots that were never hired from the previous bid and then 600 from layoffs of active pilots?

Yes. Don’t forget ERIP will play a factor.

Hopefully we hold it to the 900 not yet hired.

For greater clarity, AC is not limited to less than 600 involuntary layoffs after Oct 01st?

[Fanblade]

So hypothetically it is -1500 where 900 is pilots that were never hired from the previous bid and then 600 from layoffs of active pilots?

Yes. Don’t forget ERIP will play a factor.

Hopefully we hold it to the 900 not yet hired.

For greater clarity, AC is not limited to less than 600 involuntary layoffs after Oct 01st?

Correct.

[Inverted2]

Only 600 layoffs is a pretty damn good outcome. Other companies have laid off everyone and we laid off 1/2 our pilots (approx 675) at Jazz. I would have thought many more if AC has 4000+ pilots.

[ToolShed]

Stop the fear mongering with the LAYOFFS ARE COMING!!!!!!!

AC is not the same as BA...not even close.
Different countries. Different Populations. Different Sizes. Different rules. Different Unions. Different Essential services.
Its so different you, can be a 747 FO at 250 hours at BA and a 777 FO at AC at 2000.

Now...go back to getting mad at Transat Date of Hire integration.

[FL-280]

Only 600 layoffs is a pretty damn good outcome. Other companies have laid off everyone and we laid off 1/2 our pilots (approx 675) at Jazz. I would have thought many more if AC has 4000+ pilots.

Yeah well the great and almighty ALPA gave up the requirement for a downbid too... but hey at least the ones not effected keep their left seat, left seat pay and oh ya dont touch my db kid!

[rudder]

Only 600 layoffs is a pretty damn good outcome. Other companies have laid off everyone and we laid off 1/2 our pilots (approx 675) at Jazz. I would have thought many more if AC has 4000+ pilots.

Yeah well the great and almighty ALPA gave up the requirement for a downbid too... but hey at least the ones not effected keep their left seat, left seat pay and oh ya dont touch my db kid!

If the downturn in passenger demand prevails, and travel restrictions are extended, and the AC timetable remains subject to gross reduction, Jazz will likely be running a down bid. Jazz has no minimum employment guarantees, nor maximum layoff limitations that extend beyond July 01st. The parties are still examining the possible impact on staffing/layoffs of the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy.

We should all hope for the best but be prepared for a challenge of greater consequence and duration than we would otherwise prefer. That is not fear mongering. That is contingency planning.

[47north]

Only 600 layoffs is a pretty damn good outcome. Other companies have laid off everyone and we laid off 1/2 our pilots (approx 675) at Jazz. I would have thought many more if AC has 4000+ pilots.

Yeah well the great and almighty ALPA gave up the requirement for a downbid too... but hey at least the ones not effected keep their left seat, left seat pay and oh ya dont touch my db kid!

If a down-bid was run now, the layoffs at Jazz would be much worse.

[RippleRock]

What's stopping ACPA from agreeing to another LOU that deviates from the last one? It's only a few pen strokes away.

Only 600 layoffs in a worsening climate may not be sufficient. Things changed drastically in a two week period between Calin's "we are well prepared to weather the storm" to laying off half the FA's.

[FL-280]

Only 600 layoffs is a pretty damn good outcome. Other companies have laid off everyone and we laid off 1/2 our pilots (approx 675) at Jazz. I would have thought many more if AC has 4000+ pilots.

Yeah well the great and almighty ALPA gave up the requirement for a downbid too... but hey at least the ones not effected keep their left seat, left seat pay and oh ya dont touch my db kid!

If a down-bid was run now, the layoffs at Jazz would be much worse.

That shows how little you know about a downbid

[47north]

Yeah well the great and almighty ALPA gave up the requirement for a downbid too... but hey at least the ones not effected keep their left seat, left seat pay and oh ya dont touch my db kid!

If a down-bid was run now, the layoffs at Jazz would be much worse.

That shows how little you know about a downbid

Actually with respect to the Jazz contract, I can guarantee I know more than you and most others on here on how the bidding process works at Jazz.

But hey, you seems to be the expert of all things aviation related, so flame away.

[mbav8r]

Yeah well the great and almighty ALPA gave up the requirement for a downbid too... but hey at least the ones not effected keep their left seat, left seat pay and oh ya dont touch my db kid!

If a down-bid was run now, the layoffs at Jazz would be much worse.

That shows how little you know about a downbid

So, in your world when 1/2 the active pilots are laid off and the rest keep their status and pay for 3 months prior to a down bid that would’ve seen about 1/2 of the remaining pilots reduced to FO status and pay, is a bad outcome!

[TheStig]

The questions that no one can answer yet is what is the air travel market going to look like in 2 months, 6 months or a year from now. Given how quickly things fell to pieces in mid-March its pretty amazing how rapidly airlines adjusted their capacity for April. The global passenger air travel industry has effectively been shut down and airlines can no longer utilize economic indicators to forecast demand because they aren't applicable to this catastrophe (yet). The ACPA MOA does three things; provides the frame work for the ERIP, limits layoff to 600 pilots for 6 months and provides the airline with salary relief in exchange for the same period of time. After that, all bets are off. It's triage, while we're thinking about recovery time lines, we should be worried about survival.

[Squid]

The big but here is the bottom in this economy and virus hasn’t come yet and the 6 mos MOA was drafted on old information. With new information and data changing by the day I think this is going to burn more cash and reserves from Ac weakening their position more for a potential easier recovery. Personally a 6 mos MOA was obviously good for the pilots but a poor decision by the company. The bottom in my opinion is still a month and a half away. I’ll bet we get back to the table sometime towards the end of April.

[tsgas]

The big but here is the bottom in this economy and virus hasn’t come yet and the 6 mos MOA was drafted on old information. With new information and data changing by the day I think this is going to burn more cash and reserves from Ac weakening their position more for a potential easier recovery. Personally a 6 mos MOA was obviously good for the pilots but a poor decision by the company. The bottom in my opinion is still a month and a half away. I’ll bet we get back to the table sometime towards the end of April.

"Good for the pilots" short term but if the company is destroyed in the process , than everyone loses. We are sailing in uncharted waters and more adjustments will be necessary to save the ship.

[altiplano]

Pilot wages are not what will make ot break the company.

[Fanblade]

The big but here is the bottom in this economy and virus hasn’t come yet and the 6 mos MOA was drafted on old information. With new information and data changing by the day I think this is going to burn more cash and reserves from Ac weakening their position more for a potential easier recovery. Personally a 6 mos MOA was obviously good for the pilots but a poor decision by the company. The bottom in my opinion is still a month and a half away. I’ll bet we get back to the table sometime towards the end of April.

"Good for the pilots" short term but if the company is destroyed in the process , than everyone loses. We are sailing in uncharted waters and more adjustments will be necessary to save the ship.

I’ll bet April 8th.

The company is in no way hamstrung here.

Don’t forget ACPA has nothing in writing that the ERIP will protect the junior 600 from lay-off. It’s just been assumed. There is nothing stopping the company from removing all those who took ERIP, plus the 600, plus the 900 vacant positions on the next bid.

Moreover there is nothing stopping the company from running an even larger surplus on the April 7th bid than that. The only thing they would have to do is delay layoffs of anything beyond 600 to after September.

I’m not suggesting any of this will happen by the way. The company will still want to be in a good restart position for whatever they think next summer will look like.

So don’t go down the rabbit hole.

But don’t think for a second they are hamstrung is any way.

[Fanblade]

Pilot wages are not what will make ot break the company.

Normally yes. But with no revenue you hit your biggest costs first. If cash on hand drops below the number required to restart your done. This will be a massively expensive restart. No current forward bookings and everyone travelling later will do so on credit for future travel. That means a restart with little revenue initially. It’s that mountain that will finish airlines around the world without bailouts. Or they will have to restart at a fraction of their former size to remain liquid.

Cash will be King. Hold on to it.

Fuel just took care of itself by not flying and getting cheap. That leaves a bullseye on employees, contractors, suppliers and future capital expenditures.

[tsgas]

Pilot wages are not what will make ot break the company.

Normally yes. But with no revenue you hit your biggest costs first. If cash on hand drops below the number required to restart your done. This will be a massively expensive restart. No current forward bookings and everyone travelling later will do so on credit for future travel. That means a restart with little revenue initially. It’s that mountain that will finish airlines around the world without bailouts. Or they will have to restart at a fraction of their former size to remain liquid.

Cash will be King. Hold on to it.

Fuel just took care of itself by not flying and getting cheap. That leaves a bullseye on employees, contractors, suppliers and future capital expenditures.

+1

[FL-280]

If a down-bid was run now, the layoffs at Jazz would be much worse.

That shows how little you know about a downbid

So, in your world when 1/2 the active pilots are laid off and the rest keep their status and pay for 3 months prior to a down bid that would’ve seen about 1/2 of the remaining pilots reduced to FO status and pay, is a bad outcome!

In my world you don’t give up the largest layoff protection. In 6 months Jazz will be doing much more than 12% of their planned flying. The company would have just not run a 675 position downbid for this period of time.
You have stated you have 12 years at Jazz, so you are taking ZERO hardship while 675 junior members are on the street. Thats not how a union should work.... this should end Claude’s time because the junior members who will spend some time at Jazz now will come back swinging...

[rudder]

That shows how little you know about a downbid

So, in your world when 1/2 the active pilots are laid off and the rest keep their status and pay for 3 months prior to a down bid that would’ve seen about 1/2 of the remaining pilots reduced to FO status and pay, is a bad outcome!

In my world you don’t give up the largest layoff protection. In 6 months Jazz will be doing much more than 12% of their planned flying. The company would have just not run a 675 position downbid for this period of time.
You have stated you have 12 years at Jazz, so you are taking ZERO hardship while 675 junior members are on the street. Thats not how a union should work.... this should end Claude’s time because the junior members who will spend some time at Jazz now will come back swinging...

Do not discount the FM/Act of God clauses that exist in the collective agreements being invoked.

Yes, in order to have a change in base or equipment or seat it may only be determined and implemented via an equipment bid. However, change in status from active to lay-off (within seniority) can happen without. Best evidence? AC or Jazz could just suspend operations in their entirety and put 100% of the pilots on lay-off with minimal notice using FM/Act of God provisions of their respective agreements.

Both MEC’s have acted with this reality well in mind. And that reality has not gone away. There is likely more to come.

[Stu Pidasso]

What's stopping ACPA from agreeing to another LOU that deviates from the last one? It's only a few pen strokes away.

Only 600 layoffs in a worsening climate may not be sufficient. Things changed drastically in a two week period between Calin's "we are well prepared to weather the storm" to laying off half the FA's.

Big mistake comparing Pilots to F/A's. F/A's are a dime a dozen and can be recalled and given a one (or maybe two) day ART class and they are back to work. Getting the next 400 or so Pilots out the door starts with an extremely expensive downbid. Common belief is you need to get a Pilot out the door for 24 months for any payback.

[RippleRock]

My point was that things can change quickly. There was no "big mistake" as I'm not comparing FA's to pilots.

However, what if the new fleet plan parks a bunch of planes for the long term? The ramp up may be much slower than people predict today.

I don't think we can predict what will happen next week, let alone a month out.

I think people would be very naïve to think this will all just blow over in a few months. "Half-a$$ed social distancing" will drag this out for many, many months yet. We can only hope for a cure, as a vaccine is still a year off.

[yvrflyguy]

Heard from an MLO that only 70 of the old boys took the early retirement package.....thanks boys

Likely wont be much training resulting from the bid in April. If more layoffs happened Oct 1, the training cost would likely be quite large and would have to be taken into account much more than right now. Chopping the bottom of the RP list, bottom of the 320 and reducing the EMJ entirely are all things that will can be done with minimal training. EMJ reduction training spots will occur regardless.

Sounds like we can fully expect the 600 to be laid off.

[TheStig]

That's not correct. Check the latest MEC update WRT the first grouping of ERIP eligible pilots. Just under 60 opted in out of just over 70 in that group, the rest have until next Tuesday to make their decision. The airline negotiated to layoff up to 600 pilots, and even with 500 pilots taking early retirement, we're almost certainly going to see 600 layoffs.