Malaysia Airlines 777 - Missing

[frozen solid]

Despite all this madness and speculation, If anyone wants a good chuckle check out the articles on the National Post on the missing MH370 flight......any article will do. Scroll down to the bottom and look for comments from poster Ottawa MenCentre. No doubt these are comments from our own B52. Even better, click on the username and have a quick look at all the posting he's done.

The relentlessness of this person is quite astonishing. Perhaps this person should be running the search.

Once again, if you'd like to play a drinking game......count the number of times he mentions Michael McKay and take a drink for each.

Is it cool to attempt to identify other posters and mock them? Just wondering. Boy there are a lot of dips and swirls in this stupid thread but yours is a low point.

[ourkid2000]

Despite all this madness and speculation, If anyone wants a good chuckle check out the articles on the National Post on the missing MH370 flight......any article will do. Scroll down to the bottom and look for comments from poster Ottawa MenCentre. No doubt these are comments from our own B52. Even better, click on the username and have a quick look at all the posting he's done.

The relentlessness of this person is quite astonishing. Perhaps this person should be running the search.

Once again, if you'd like to play a drinking game......count the number of times he mentions Michael McKay and take a drink for each.

Is it cool to attempt to identify other posters and mock them? Just wondering. Boy there are a lot of dips and swirls in this stupid thread but yours is a low point.

Actually, I think it is kinda cool......I just happened across it while reading and it struck me as particularly crazy when I recognized the writing. Besides, he's posted quite a bit of information on here and those other posts of his could add credibility (or lack thereof) to his arguments.

[BTyyj]

I don't see why an electrical fire should be entirely out of the question. Let's assume for a second that an electrical fire was indeed onboard MAS370.

Although the schematics for the B772 aren't available online, I'd assume the ACARS system, transponder, and communication systems are all located fairly close to eachother. If a fire was to originate from one of these systems, wouldn't it be plausible to assume that it would then spread to the other systems? The fact that the ACARS, comms, then transponder apparently went down one after the other vindicates this idea, and it would also explain why no radio call was made.

The pilots could've recognized the possibility of an onboard electrical fire and elected to divert to Langkawi due to its relative closeness, runway length, and lack of high terrain enroute. As complexintentions noted, VAMPI and GAVIL are well known and common waypoints in that area, so maybe one of the pilots knew these waypoints were close to Langkawi and selected them into the FMS hurriedly, before any sort of uncontrollable fire occurred.

Now you have an aircraft being flown toward GAVIL on LNAV/VNAV mode while the pilots are working to fight the fire. My understanding of the FMS system on the B777 is limited; however, I'd assume that selected GAVIL as the final waypoint on the Legs page, then selecting direct to, would have the aircraft continuing on the same track outbound upon reaching GAVIL. At this point, if the pilots were to become incapacitated, the aircraft would simply continue on this track at this altitude without any further intervention. Assuming the aircraft crashed due to fuel exhaustion, the track the aircraft would've made places it well into the Indian Ocean, corresponding with the final Inmarsat ping received.

Anyway, this is just my theory, but I'm certainly open to ideas.

[ahramin]

BTyyj, as already stated, you don't enter waypoints in an emegency diversion. You would simply go directly to the airport.

[BTyyj]

Maybe there were concerns over high terrain?

Otherwise, if they'd simply inputed direct to Langkawi, the end result would've been the same, while their track would've put them close to the aforementioned waypoints.

[zulutime]

Recent reports suggest that the flight plan was modified 12 minutes prior to the last transmission with ATC ("alright, good night"). We are told that when the new flight plan was input in the flightdeck the information is relayed back to the airline. I have no knowledge if this is true or not. Can anyone confirm this? Assuming, for the moment, this IS true, why did it take the airline almost 12 days to bring this information to light?

[ogopogo]

BTyyj, as already stated, you don't enter waypoints in an emegency diversion. You would simply go directly to the airport.

And, I heard on the radio this morning that they started the turn (or more specifically, "reprogrammed the flight computer") BEFORE that last 'good night' radio call.

Don't know if this is true or not, but seems important.

[photofly]

The BBC has resorted to writing stories about other people writing stories:


"An MH370 theory that was simple, compelling and wrong":
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-26640114

"As long as there is no definitive word about the fate of MH370, theories - from respected experts and amateurs relying on a hunch and a little help from Google Earth - will continue to bounce around the internet.

Some will catch fire and go viral, until they are debunked or overtaken by new facts."

[Troubleshot]

If it were indeed a fire on board and it effected the aircraft electrical systems you would think it would also effect the bus the auto-pilot was on as well. Reports the plane flew additional 2-7 hours after the transponder dropped off would should show this to be unlikely...but there have been so many theories it is hard to keep track...

[Gino Under]

B52

I have stated as much with my previously posted suggestion (which is based on fact) that a computer (such as the ADIRU) might well have gone mad as it has in the past on both the 777 and A330 despite the ADs that that followed which might have cured the problem. What if the fix didn't work because of a 1 to the negative power of whatever possibility the fix wasn't perfect and it happened again on this flight?
I'm surprised among pilot posters on this forum, knowledgeable pilots, some of whom fly the 777, no one on this forum can even begin to analyze this suggestion beyond a wave of their hand and not even try to connect any of the possible behaviours of a high altitude stall and potential loss of control that may have ensued based on some of what is known about this flight if it had suffered a sudden unexplained pitch up to 45,000 feet.
Incredible.

They'd rather explain away and qualify why other more unrealistic suggestions are either possible, likely or just plain fluff.

Undoubtedly, that's what happens when you get more than one pilot with an opinion in a room or on a discussion forum. Go figure.

Gino

[Tips Up]

Or it was the captain who shut the transponder off, reprogrammed the FMS, and flew it towards the South Indian Ocean, some of the most remote areas on the planet, as he practiced on his flight simulator at home? Which weirdly enough had much of the data deleted recently. And his family moved out of their home the day before the accident. Sure some weird coincidences.

[photofly]

What if the fix didn't work because of a 1 to the negative power of whatever possibility...

Maths for the day: one raised to any power is still one. That would mean an absolute certainty.

[zulutime]

Or it was the captain who shut the transponder off, reprogrammed the FMS, and flew it towards the South Indian Ocean, some of the most remote areas on the planet, as he practiced on his flight simulator at home? Which weirdly enough had much of the data deleted recently. And his family moved out of their home the day before the accident. Sure some weird coincidences.

You seem to be coming to a serious conclusion without ANY facts at your disposal. How many of us have Flight Sim on our computers? How many of us have deleted files becuase the hardrive was getting full? The FBI will likely be able to retrieve that missing file. I don't know if one or the other pilot are involved but I certainly won't jump to that conculsion by the limited information you are relying on above.

[CLguy]

http://minivannews.com/society/kudahuva ... ance-80268

[Gino Under]

quote:
Maths for the day: one raised to any power is still one. That would mean an absolute certainty.


That's for sure.

What about a 1 in 1500 to the minus something chance? That work?

Gino

[cncpc]

http://minivannews.com/society/kudahuva ... ance-80268

Gan, not Diego Garcia.

http://imadmariyam.blogactiv.eu/2013...aldives-islam/

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Libra...ail/?id=168645

[+RA]

That work?

1x10^-10?

[zulutime]

Recent reports suggest that the flight plan was modified 12 minutes prior to the last transmission with ATC ("alright, good night"). We are told that when the new flight plan was input in the flightdeck the information is relayed back to the airline. I have no knowledge if this is true or not. Can anyone confirm this? Assuming, for the moment, this IS true, why did it take the airline almost 12 days to bring this information to light?

Now so-called "experts" are suggesting that if the flight plan was modified in the air that information wouldn't be relayed back to the airline itself. Does anyone here know first hand on whether the FMS sends info back to a ground based station (i.e. head office at airline)? If not, then this seems to be yet another piece of mis-information. And, this was a detail that came to us from a law enforcement officer.

Looking for someone with first hand knowledge to reply.

[bizjets101]

[pdw]

Recent reports suggest that the flight plan was modified 12 minutes prior to the last transmission with ATC ("alright, good night"). We are told that when the new flight plan was input in the flightdeck the information is relayed back to the airline. I have no knowledge if this is true or not. Can anyone confirm this? Assuming, for the moment, this IS true, why did it take the airline almost 12 days to bring this information to light?

If this means sent automatically to the airline's computor ... could this "12 minutes" just be a delay/time error to do with the timing-record of the transmission of this information ?

[complexintentions]

The FMS does NOT send back any information about re-programming to anywhere. It does not have this capability. It's pretty old technology actually. Some airlines - including mine - do use the capability it DOES have to upload a flight plan from dispatch, which is then checked against the paper flight plan and confirmed. But amendments after that are not sent anywhere. I believe they are basing their assertion the crew - or hijackers, whatever - amended the routing before comms loss on the fact the flight changed track right at the FIR handoff. In other words, if you want the aircraft to begin a course change at a certain waypoint, you'd have to enter the new course before that waypoint. But any reports that state the company somehow knew the details about route revisions are utter bs. From what I understand, they know MH370 was flying the airways west, from the radar returns.

Gino Under,

Why are you puzzled that most people are looking towards the more logical scenarios rather than the one-in-a-million theories? Please present evidence of any sort of flight control malfunction, high altitude stall, or loss of control? If it resulted in a hull loss, please explain the inability to locate any debris whatsoever in a busy shipping and fishing area? I am not dismissing any theory whatsoever. But some - like the idea that "THE FLIGHT COMPUTERS TOOK OVER" - are so far-fetched as to not even be worth considering until many other, more legitimate theories have been proven unfounded. Given the weight of all the other information about the flight so far, it simply doesn't make sense to suggest that a design that since the 90's hasn't had a single fatal accident (beyond incompetents running it into the ground in SFO) suddenly went bezerk and self-destructed. Without so much as a single distress call. The B777 has two ELT's, I guess they both malfunctioned? What bad luck.

Your theory is far more unlikely and realistic than anything to do with willful interference with the flight. Given what things we've been told, which, as I said, I freely admit are not exactly transparent truth. But at least the diversion theories seem to have some basis, unlike the accident theorists, which actually seem to be contradicted by the evidence (or lack of, ie wreckage).

As I said, I'll happily change my conjecture when presented more evidence. But until then, I'll go with what very little we've been told. I have no idea of how the idea of what seems pretty clearly deliberate ending of comms - both voice and radar - and a major deviation in course, with not even a hint of a mayday call, leads anyone to believe it was some catastrophic accidental failure.

But of course, people are always free to believe what they like.

[photofly]

quote:
Maths for the day: one raised to any power is still one. That would mean an absolute certainty.


That's for sure.

What about a 1 in 1500 to the minus something chance? That work?

Gino

Well you could have a straightforward 1500-to-the-minus-something probability, or you could have a 1 in 1500-to-the-something-positive chance. But you wouldn't want to have "1 in 1500-to-the-minus-something" because that would be "1 in something small" rather than "1 in something large".

All clear?

[frozen solid]

Or it was the captain who shut the transponder off, reprogrammed the FMS, and flew it towards the South Indian Ocean, some of the most remote areas on the planet, as he practiced on his flight simulator at home? Which weirdly enough had much of the data deleted recently. And his family moved out of their home the day before the accident. Sure some weird coincidences.

You seem to be coming to a serious conclusion without ANY facts at your disposal. How many of us have Flight Sim on our computers? How many of us have deleted files becuase the hardrive was getting full? The FBI will likely be able to retrieve that missing file. I don't know if one or the other pilot are involved but I certainly won't jump to that conculsion by the limited information you are relying on above.

Do you really need to go to the trouble of rigging up a simulator in order to practice pulling some CBs and steering the plane to a certain spot? Give me a break.

[Pavese]

I've heard people say Michael Mckay's observation was discredited.

Haven't seen anything here about this but here's something that could put reasonable doubt into the McKay reports. In the east (of North America that is...) there have been reports and photos/videos of fireballs in the sky that sound a lot like McKay's report. They have been attributed to meteorites. Apparently they were observed on 3 consecutive nights including last night.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scot ... -1.2578175
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scot ... -1.2576708
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03/18 ... meteorite/

Now, I haven't seen McKay's fireball but looking at these videos it certainly follows the description of a bright light falling the sky then blowing up in a fireball.

Next theory please..........

D

[bizjets101]

American's are using their brand new P-8 (Boeing 737-800) Poseidon to search 1500 miles west of Perth Australia. Personally with all the USA's military satellites - I doubt very much they'd send a P-8 to search unless they actually believe that is where MH370 is.