Are you vaccinated?

[A346Dude]

deleted

[CpnCrunch]

The case fatality rate is 1.8%. The infection fatality rate is significantly lower, and heavily skewed towards older populations.

You can't be serious...having an actual discussion with actual facts? Ok then...

The problem with studies of IFR is that they are mostly estimates. Canada has pretty good tracking of COVID deaths compared to many other countries, and anyone who wants a COVID test can get it. The question is really what % of people got COVID without being tested. A study from ICL estimates 1.15% IFR for developed countries. So somewhere between 1% and 1.8% seems about right. Then the relative risk by age is pretty well established:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... y-age.html

[digits_]

The average pilot does not have a 1.8% chance of dying of covid, even if all pilots get covid. Exaggeration does not help to convince people to take a vaccine.

Today's young fit pilots are, all - every single one of you - within a very predictable time frame, going to become old, obese pilots (or ex-pilots) with significant co-morbidities. It's just a matter of time.

I laugh at all those people who tell me COVID-19 isn't a threat to them. Today - sure.

At what age do *you* figure the vaccine suddenly becomes a worthwhile bet? Let's hear your reasoning.

? Are you going to start wearing diapers at 30 years old because you might get incontinent at 95? Why take a vaccine now for a disease that might cause you great harm in 30 years? I'll take the vaccine in 25 years then.

If I were 50+, I would likely have wanted to take the vaccine for my protection. Depending on my health deterioration at the time. Now I just took it in the hope of being less affected by government restrictions.

[digits_]

Well you might want to check your facts there. In Canada the current fatality rate is 1.8%. I guess some pilots are happy with a 1.8% chance of having a fatal crash on each flight too. Each to their own.

When analyzing the chance of a fatal crash on an airline, do you look at similar airline crashes, or do you look at ultralight crashes as well?

The average pilot does not have a 1.8% chance of dying of covid, even if all pilots get covid. Exaggeration does not help to convince people to take a vaccine.

That is no exaggeration. It is the average. Its trivial to look up the fatality rate for various age groups and health conditions. I was going to post them but realised it was a waste of time (see prev post )

You're abusing that statistic to scare people into taking the vaccine.

The average fatality rate *if you catch the virus* is 1.8%. If that was the only available info, you could use that as an argument. However, we have much more detailed information available. Healthy young people do not have a fatality rate close to 1.8%. The numbers posted above paint a different picture.


Do you want people to take the vaccine because you are worried that if they don't your health will be affected, or do you want them to take the vaccine so restrictions are lifted?

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

This is your hourly reminder that you're all stupid.

Get the vaccine and shut up.... either that or don't get the vaccine and shut up.

[CpnCrunch]

? Are you going to start wearing diapers at 30 years old because you might get incontinent at 95? Why take a vaccine now for a disease that might cause you great harm in 30 years? I'll take the vaccine in 25 years then.

The data shows that 2% of Canadian 30-39 year olds who tested positive for COVID had to be hospitalized. Even assuming that half of cases weren't tested, that's still 1% risk of hospitalization. I'm not sure why you'd prefer that risk to the much lower risk of the vaccine. Also, right now it is mainly hospitalizations that are causing the problems. That is why I haven't been able to visit my family in Manitoba for over a year, and it's at least partially due to people not wanting to be vaccinated.

[CpnCrunch]

You're abusing that statistic to scare people into taking the vaccine.

The average fatality rate *if you catch the virus* is 1.8%. If that was the only available info, you could use that as an argument. However, we have much more detailed information available. Healthy young people do not have a fatality rate close to 1.8%. The numbers posted above paint a different picture.


Do you want people to take the vaccine because you are worried that if they don't your health will be affected, or do you want them to take the vaccine so restrictions are lifted?

I already addressed that two posts up...

[A346Dude]

deleted

[digits_]

In this day and age, we can actually run some very rough statistics very quickly ourselves.

How many of your facebook friends have died from covid?

For me it's 1 in 400, with a pre existing condition.
Another 4 claim they have had covid, 2 were confirmed with a test.

[CpnCrunch]

In this day and age, we can actually run some very rough statistics very quickly ourselves.

How many of your facebook friends have died from covid?

For me it's 1 in 400, with a pre existing condition.
Another 4 claim they have had covid, 2 were confirmed with a test.

So that's a 14% CFR for your albeit highly unscientific study.

[CpnCrunch]

In any case it's so heavily skewed towards the elderly, that an average across all age groups is a somewhat meaningless number. Per your source, 75-84 is 71 times more likely to die than 30-39. 85+ is 870 times more likely to die than 18-29. We're talking orders of magnitude difference from highest to lowest risk groups.

True, and if you're under 40 with no health conditions and skinny you don't really have much to worry about in terms of dying. But the other issue is hospitalization and ICU usage, which as I pointed out is 1-2% for 30-40s. Given that obesity increases risk by about 36% that still means you have around a 1% risk of hospitalization if you're in that age group, and it's those people that are actively preventing me from visiting family in Manitoba right now. I had to cancel a flight last week and god knows when this shitshow is going to end. We just need to wait for succifient people to get vaccinated, which luckily seems to be happening in spite of so many people refusing to get the vaccine.

[digits_]

In this day and age, we can actually run some very rough statistics very quickly ourselves.

How many of your facebook friends have died from covid?

For me it's 1 in 400, with a pre existing condition.
Another 4 claim they have had covid, 2 were confirmed with a test.

So that's a 14% CFR for your albeit highly unscientific study.

True, although I doubt everyone who contracted covid posted it on there. If someone died though, it does make its way on facebook pretty quickly.

It might be unscientific, but it might give one a more accurate image of the risk. Most people on there are at least somewhat moving around in your social circle.

[photofly]

? Are you going to start wearing diapers at 30 years old because you might get incontinent at 95? Why take a vaccine now for a disease that might cause you great harm in 30 years? I'll take the vaccine in 25 years then.

If I were 50+, I would likely have wanted to take the vaccine for my protection. Depending on my health deterioration at the time. Now I just took it in the hope of being less affected by government restrictions.

I don't see the connection with diapers.

So you only think it's worthwhile having a vaccine if you're over 50. What do you base that figure on?

Secondly - if you're going to have the vaccine at all, what's the benefit of waiting until you're 50? Do you think it becomes safer, the longer you leave it?

[Human Factor]

True, and if you're under 40 with no health conditions and skinny you don't really have much to worry about in terms of dying. But the other issue is hospitalization and ICU usage, which as I pointed out is 1-2% for 30-40s. Given that obesity increases risk by about 36% that still means you have around a 1% risk of hospitalization if you're in that age group, and it's those people that are actively preventing me from visiting family in Manitoba right now. I had to cancel a flight last week and god knows when this shitshow is going to end. We just need to wait for succifient people to get vaccinated, which luckily seems to be happening in spite of so many people refusing to get the vaccine.

Actually it's the people in the various levels of government who are actively preventing you from visiting your family in Manitoba right now.

[digits_]

So you only think it's worthwhile having a vaccine if you're over 50. What do you base that figure on?

Secondly - if you're going to have the vaccine at all, what's the benefit of waiting until you're 50? Do you think it becomes safer, the longer you leave it?

Vaccines are generally not valid for life. Some are, most need to be boosted after a while. Since this is a fairly new vaccine, another 10 or 20 years of testing and development (if covid is still around at that time) would probably increase its efficiency, and at the very least we would get more data about any possible long term side effects. Chances of nasty side effects are small, but so is the chance of me dying from covid. 50 seems to be the age when people start to 'deteriorate' more quickly. Little ailments, slower recovery when sick. That's why I would personally be more willing to risk some side effects, as I would get more worried about covid effects.

The fatality rates posted above, seem to support that chances of someting happening seem to increase quite a bit above 50.

Assuming you have no other health problems of course. Obesity seems to be highly linked to covid deaths. So even if you are only 20 and obese, take the vaccine!

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

So you only think it's worthwhile having a vaccine if you're over 50. What do you base that figure on?

Secondly - if you're going to have the vaccine at all, what's the benefit of waiting until you're 50? Do you think it becomes safer, the longer you leave it?

Vaccines are generally not valid for life. Some are, most need to be boosted after a while. Since this is a fairly new vaccine, another 10 or 20 years of testing and development (if covid is still around at that time) would probably increase its efficiency, and at the very least we would get more data about any possible long term side effects. Chances of nasty side effects are small, but so is the chance of me dying from covid. 50 seems to be the age when people start to 'deteriorate' more quickly. Little ailments, slower recovery when sick. That's why I would personally be more willing to risk some side effects, as I would get more worried about covid effects.

The fatality rates posted above, seem to support that chances of someting happening seem to increase quite a bit above 50.

Assuming you have no other health problems of course. Obesity seems to be highly linked to covid deaths. So even if you are only 20 and obese, take the vaccine!

You're arguing with people who think that the FDA and Trump are the authorities in Canada.

[montado]

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[RedAndWhiteBaron]

LOL. WTF?

What a wonderful introduction to this thread.

[CpnCrunch]

Actually it's the people in the various levels of government who are actively preventing you from visiting your family in Manitoba right now.

No, their response is pretty reasonable given the ICUs are overflowing. It's the people refusing to get vaccinated because they don't understand science and then cause the ICUs to overflow that are the problem.

[CpnCrunch]

You're arguing with people who think that the FDA and Trump are the authorities in Canada.

Nope.

[BigQ]

Actually it's the people in the various levels of government who are actively preventing you from visiting your family in Manitoba right now.

No, their response is pretty reasonable given the ICUs are overflowing. It's the people refusing to get vaccinated because they don't understand science and then cause the ICUs to overflow that are the problem.

ICUs are NOT overflowing. That's a lie. They always operate at 90+% capacity.

My source: nurse friends and family in GTA, YUL, YOW, YWG, YQB, and doctor friends in YCC, YGK, and YPQ.

[digits_]

Actually it's the people in the various levels of government who are actively preventing you from visiting your family in Manitoba right now.

No, their response is pretty reasonable given the ICUs are overflowing. It's the people refusing to get vaccinated because they don't understand science and then cause the ICUs to overflow that are the problem.

ICUs are NOT overflowing. That's a lie. They always operate at 90+% capacity.

My source: nurse friends and family in GTA, YUL, YOW, YWG, YQB, and doctor friends in YCC, YGK, and YPQ.

How does that work? Do they remove beds when there is no need, or do they lower the threshold for which health issue gets you in the ICU?


Also, if that's true and there is no overflow, why are Manitoba covid patients flown out of province for treatment?

[montado]

Saying icus are full is like saying flights are always full as airlines shift fleets around to meet demand. Of course icus are full! You don’t hire double the nurses and doctors to sit and stare into space in half full icus. They staff them to what’s required so they are always full the same way airlines (used to) always have full flights. Ontario has half the amount of covid patients in ICU’s then we peaked at. So how the heck are ICU’s full? They are always full

Delta variant is coming guys! Looks like we will have a reason to keep schools closed in September. Enjoy.

[CpnCrunch]

Ah, the "experts" weigh in again. Here is some info about Manitoba pre-pandemic:

https://wfpquantum.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf ... 202019.pdf

68 ICU beds are needed to provide the needs for patients 95% of the time. There are now over 100 patients needing ICUs. Over half the normal ICU capacity is taken up entirely by covid patients.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba ... -1.5819947

[montado]

Ah, the "experts" weigh in again. Here is some info about Manitoba pre-pandemic:

https://wfpquantum.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf ... 202019.pdf

68 ICU beds are needed to provide the needs for patients 95% of the time. There are now over 100 patients needing ICUs. Over half the normal ICU capacity is taken up entirely by covid patients.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba ... -1.5819947

We are also told zero influenza going around so those covid cases are just taking the influenza beds.

I happen to know enough people working in hospitals to know the reality is not what the media pushes. Sure some local spots got busy. For most things look normal.

And one of the most important questions is what measures are actually effective at reducing icu cases. Just because ICUs full up doesn't mean golf has to be shut down or we all need to wear masks in Costco.

Get your vaccine and go back to normal. I no longer give a shit about our frail healthcare system that has been shit for decades. Every year I hear about how its falling apart. Socialized healthcare trying to hang everyone. Maybe we should ditch this shit system so we can all go back to normal and see if private hospitals fill up with covid patients. How many years are we going to listen to this garbage about full hospitals being the reason we can't golf, open schools, travel etc. Covid not the problem. At this point we are literally being told we can't live normal because our hospitals can't handle normal. Even if covid goes away how can we be normal... We can't handle normal!