Timing the cycle

[Dockjock]

Nobody in YVR tower makes less than $400k. There’s money in Canadian aviation, believe me. The cash is absolutely sloshing around.

[tbayav8er]

Hahahaha...

Just look at the "opposition" trolls we have trying to tell us we aren't any different than a bus driver:

- a disgraced former leader leader who slashed and burned what was left and couldn't find a friend in a whorehouse

- a pilot hater airline employee

- a bitter 2000 hour Jazz wash-out now back flying 703

These POS don't define my worth.

Amen. And as far as my comment about us being up there with doctors and surgeons....Our counterparts at United are getting paid surgeon levels of pay. So obviously our skills do demand such compensation. We now have the same union representing us that represents United. Same shared union resources etc. My expectations are high, and I have full confidence in our new alpa leadership. Like I said, I'll revisit this thread after our contract is in place, but personally, I am very optimistic.

[rookiepilot]

I wish you guys the best on this, really do, but I wouldn’t dither dather too too long…..get er done.

[DanWEC]

Nobody in YVR tower makes less than $400k. There’s money in Canadian aviation, believe me. The cash is absolutely sloshing around.

That seems high, but regardless- absolutely. ATC, aviation management up to execs, owners and operators, there's a lot of money out there, but somehow it's been gradually extirpated from pilots, and only recently in this generation.

To touch on the medicine comparison, I don't believe they're exactly comparable, but it's close. It takes more education, better time management, better academic record and a lot more cash to become a physician. However, they aren't that far apart, and there are plenty of Dr's that couldn't be pilots, and vice versa. Different skillsets.

Thing is, one generation ago a major airline captain and doctor would have occupied the same circles and station in life. This still exists everywhere else in the world, with the exclusive exception of Canada. Why is that? Are we uniquely sub-par? Different air? What happened in the last 25 years above our country alone?

[Fanblade]

Thing is, one generation ago a major airline captain and doctor would have occupied the same circles and station in life. This still exists everywhere else in the world, except now, and exclusively in Canada. Why is that? Are we uniquely sub-par? Different air? What happened in the last 25 years above our country alone?

Bankruptcy mid 2000’s. Same as US


————————————————————-

Government interference. Inability to strike. 2012 Harper Government

ACPA. 2012-2023. Matching down wages while US carriers were matching up.

A couple of decades of the “ new normal” was cheap pilots. It’s all management knows. Their echo chamber tells them this is normal.

Multiple legacy airlines merged into a single entity. No legacy comparable.

Canadian labor law forcing comparables within our borders. No legacy comparable holding every one down to upstarts.

[Lt. Daniel Kaffee]

RR

You make me laugh...a lot.

I have never held an elected office in any union....ever in my entire life.

Japanese proverb. When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So glad I live in your head rent free....

[Yogi21]

Geeze louise boi'z.. let this simmer a couple of days look at the results. Monday morning lol.

Allow me to enlighten those that choose to peruse. Pilot are quick to snap chomp and scapegoat management, don't. Pilot salaries (just like the rest of the labor pool) aren't dictated from the C-suite. Pilot salaries are a function of:

Market supply and demand - (trust me, the supply is healthy right now and about to get a lot healthier.. stay tuned)
Market pricing (None of you have any idea how this works in aviation - especially in Canada)
Creditors - (trust me, they will not agree to a "United" contract in Canada, not even close. This delusion needs to stop)
Macro Economy - (this was the spirit of the OP.. the next contract will be negotiated in the middle of both a domestic and global down cycle)
Simple basic math - (trust me, the math never has and never will add up in the way that the "hold the line" mantra might otherwise suggest)

It is unfair, unreasonable and quite frankly displays poor judgement to overinflate potential gains on a new contract here in Canada. Pilots are skilled trades people, albeit slightly different with a very unique, carefully selected pool of carbon copy A-type personalities drawn to the job through years of of TikTok & Instagram shorts, Youtube vids and social media selfies fueling the drive to be rockstars in the air. When was the last time anyone actually cared what a pilot does EXECPT another wanna be pilot?

Nothing else makes a pilot in Canada unique or different than any other trades category - you have far more in common with laborers in Northern Alberta than you'd think, you work away from home, you work hard and you are paid for your hard work. You drive a machine that carries people, so does a bus driver, so does a ferry boat captain, so does a train driver. None of those are paid anywhere close to what their counterparts are down South for the exact same reasons above. You aren't Doctors, Surgeons, Dentists, CEOs, CFOs, Directors etc.

You sound like the management’s asshole. They fart this rhetoric all day

[Hysteria]

Geeze louise boi'z.. let this simmer a couple of days look at the results. Monday morning lol.

Allow me to enlighten those that choose to peruse. Pilot are quick to snap chomp and scapegoat management, don't. Pilot salaries (just like the rest of the labor pool) aren't dictated from the C-suite. Pilot salaries are a function of:

Market supply and demand - (trust me, the supply is healthy right now and about to get a lot healthier.. stay tuned)
Market pricing (None of you have any idea how this works in aviation - especially in Canada)
Creditors - (trust me, they will not agree to a "United" contract in Canada, not even close. This delusion needs to stop)
Macro Economy - (this was the spirit of the OP.. the next contract will be negotiated in the middle of both a domestic and global down cycle)
Simple basic math - (trust me, the math never has and never will add up in the way that the "hold the line" mantra might otherwise suggest)

It is unfair, unreasonable and quite frankly displays poor judgement to overinflate potential gains on a new contract here in Canada. Pilots are skilled trades people, albeit slightly different with a very unique, carefully selected pool of carbon copy A-type personalities drawn to the job through years of of TikTok & Instagram shorts, Youtube vids and social media selfies fueling the drive to be rockstars in the air. When was the last time anyone actually cared what a pilot does EXECPT another wanna be pilot?

Nothing else makes a pilot in Canada unique or different than any other trades category - you have far more in common with laborers in Northern Alberta than you'd think, you work away from home, you work hard and you are paid for your hard work. You drive a machine that carries people, so does a bus driver, so does a ferry boat captain, so does a train driver. None of those are paid anywhere close to what their counterparts are down South for the exact same reasons above. You aren't Doctors, Surgeons, Dentists, CEOs, CFOs, Directors etc.

I’m so thankful that new 705 pilots like myself don’t fall for this nonsense. I’ll be listening to actual helpful professionals like altiplano, fanblade, ripplerock etc before I listen to this garbage.

No one becomes a pilot because of a silly instagram video. This line of thinking demonstrates your pessimism toward aviation.

What a mischaracterization of the profession.

And the supply curve is not far from the demand curve in the USA yet 3 legacies got worldly contacts. They got paid their worth.

Anyway, try harder.

Here’s a reminder.

[flyingcanuck]

I prob shouldn't waste any time replying to you but why not while I have my coffee.

Market supply and demand - (trust me, the supply is healthy right now and about to get a lot healthier.. stay tuned)
Market pricing (None of you have any idea how this works in aviation - especially in Canada)
Creditors - (trust me, they will not agree to a "United" contract in Canada, not even close. This delusion needs to stop)
Macro Economy - (this was the spirit of the OP.. the next contract will be negotiated in the middle of both a domestic and global down cycle)
Simple basic math - (trust me, the math never has and never will add up in the way that the "hold the line" mantra might otherwise suggest)

TRUST YOU - You clearly arent an economist or have any understanding of how it actually works and are making up excuses for mgmt.

It is unfair, unreasonable and quite frankly displays poor judgement to overinflate potential gains on a new contract here in Canada. Pilots are skilled trades people, albeit slightly different with a very unique, carefully selected pool of carbon copy A-type personalities drawn to the job through years of of TikTok & Instagram shorts, Youtube vids and social media selfies fueling the drive to be rockstars in the air. When was the last time anyone actually cared what a pilot does EXECPT another wanna be pilot?

Lol, dont inflate potential gains, its unreasonable. Air Canada just announced the highest profit margin in North America, but its unreasonable for us to want the wages we deserve. Somebody, PLEASE think of the poor corporation. Pretty sad you are trying to water down the passion, dedication and love that so many of us have for our profession. You clearly have an axe to grind.

Nothing else makes a pilot in Canada unique or different than any other trades category - you have far more in common with laborers in Northern Alberta than you'd think, you work away from home, you work hard and you are paid for your hard work. You drive a machine that carries people, so does a bus driver, so does a ferry boat captain, so does a train driver. None of those are paid anywhere close to what their counterparts are down South for the exact same reasons above. You aren't Doctors, Surgeons, Dentists, CEOs, CFOs, Directors etc.

We:
- spend several years in training, and then another 5 ish years on average getting experience to get the big boy jobs that actually pay enough to live in this country.
- take on lots of debt and get paid peanuts for many many years.
- Must complete annual and bi-annual certification and training lest be left unable do to our jobs.
- Responsible for human lives and millions of liability.
- Manage several different work groups.

Doesnt take a genius to see which group we are closer too.

[Fanblade]

Unless Androids persona is faked. He/She is an AC pilot based on the 8 posts since March 2023. Recently moved over from Express.

Sounds just like classic ACPA.

This is the thing. We will never get 100% support. But some of the outliers in our group are quite eye opening. Remember they are a minority.

Androids. A question for you. Why are you worth less than 20 years ago? Explain this to me. Do you even understand accurately what I am referencing?

Opinions aside. Unity - Union. I fully expect 5000 opinions. But when push comes to shove, 5000 holding the line.

I expect you on the picket. Do not let your peers down.

I think we might be missing the cycle here. Economic cracks are appearing everywhere, including travel and leisure. GDP has flatlined and credit tightening rapidly. Any economic downturn going into contract talks will only serve to seriously undermine the bargaining power pilots might of otherwise had given recent quarterly earnings. We are one of the last legacies on the continent to begin the process and will likely be negotiating into a recession, unfortunate timing imo. AC knows this.. most pilots don't.

Of course, these details aren't lost on anybody - it's unfortunate / bad luck out of the pilots control.

It still doesn't change the main point here. Periods immediately preceding end of cycles and consolidation have always been marked with strong, if not record setting, quarterly performance. The lifetime dollar cost average earnings of a pilot in Canada has now dropped well below most blue collar trade workers.

We need to see minimum gains of 60%+ across the board to bring us back anywhere close to par, and this is without factoring unknown inflation through 2025. I'm not as optimistic as I was a year ago going into this.

[altiplano]

Unless Androids persona is faked. He/She is an AC pilot based on the 8 posts since March 2023. Recently moved over from Express.

Sounds just like classic ACPA.

While I agree it sounds like classic ACPA or maybe a fake account... here's a post from 6 months ago.

I had the option along with another colleague / peer in Q2 / Q3 2022 to go to Flair or Jazz both of us ATPL less than 2000 TT - both successfully interviewed and both received offers. He chose Flair, I chose Jazz.

He flew Flair for 6 months before AC picked him up - FO 330 YVR. 3 other Flair pilots from the same GS left at the same time to AC, 737 and 320 FO. I flew Jazz 3 for months and quit in December, 3 months I will never get back and of course needless to say missed the fast track opportunity to AC. A massive miscalculation on my part, in part due to misinformation and endless delusional optimum within these forums.

This small anecdotal story speaks massive volumes, I have followed AV Canada Jazz forums for years - everyone here is either in denial, delusional or they are company management spinning PR spam to help manage absolute circus that exists within.

I am back to 703/704 flying - 3 days on, 5 days off. $150k per year. Home every single night, no crash pad. 4 weeks (8 weeks) vacation per year. It takes basic math, basic Excel spreadsheet skills and knowledge on TFSA, RRSP contributions to realize how financially destructive even 2 or 3 years (5??) at Jazz can be on ones long term financial outcome.

3 months Jazz and gone and bitter about it all... A 2000 hour Air Taxi champion who is going to tell us all how it is.

And 3 months? That's barely finishing your type rating... or maybe not even that far, sounds like ATO/washout to me...

[Bede]

Allow me to enlighten those that choose to peruse.

Thanks in advance for enlightening us.

Pilot salaries are a function of:
...
Simple basic math - (trust me, the math never has and never will add up in the way that the "hold the line" mantra might otherwise suggest)

You forgot to mention margins, anticipated earnings growth, ability to shift labour, value created, access to substitutions, etc. But you remembered the factor of "simple basic math" taught in econ 101. I feel enlightened already.

... drawn to the job through years of of TikTok & Instagram shorts, Youtube vids and social media selfies fueling the drive to be rockstars in the air.

Right. We all got into flying decades ago because of TikTok.

Nothing else makes a pilot in Canada unique or different than any other trades category

Actually we do. My colleagues and I generate around $10,000/hr in revenue for our employer. We just want a small fraction of that amount to compensate us for our years of experience.

You aren't Doctors, Surgeons, Dentists, CEOs, CFOs, Directors etc.

No, I'm not. I make more per hour than most doctors & surgeons.

Allow me to enlighten those that choose to peruse.

Anyways, thanks again for enlightening us.

[Bede]

It takes basic math, basic Excel spreadsheet skills and knowledge on TFSA, RRSP contributions to realize how financially destructive even 2 or 3 years (5??) at Jazz can be on ones long term financial outcome.

Why is it that people who quote "basic math" seem to be the most numerically illiterate people you come across?

[DanWEC]

This poster is the personification of a crab in the bucket.

Didn't make it to the majors. Bitter, and would rather see all airline drivers fail down to their level than succeed as a group.

Ironically, if the airline world wasn't so depressed they wouldn't have left, and wouldn't be outside angrily looking in. Weird perspective.

(In no way am I disparaging any 703/704 pilots as a group, there are some great jobs there for folks with better hands and feet than me, and I still haven't had as much fun or made as much money as some of those summers, but I like my seat now . )

[tbayav8er]

Unless Androids persona is faked. He/She is an AC pilot based on the 8 posts since March 2023. Recently moved over from Express.

Sounds just like classic ACPA.

While I agree it sounds like classic ACPA or maybe a fake account... here's a post from 6 months ago.

I had the option along with another colleague / peer in Q2 / Q3 2022 to go to Flair or Jazz both of us ATPL less than 2000 TT - both successfully interviewed and both received offers. He chose Flair, I chose Jazz.

He flew Flair for 6 months before AC picked him up - FO 330 YVR. 3 other Flair pilots from the same GS left at the same time to AC, 737 and 320 FO. I flew Jazz 3 for months and quit in December, 3 months I will never get back and of course needless to say missed the fast track opportunity to AC. A massive miscalculation on my part, in part due to misinformation and endless delusional optimum within these forums.

This small anecdotal story speaks massive volumes, I have followed AV Canada Jazz forums for years - everyone here is either in denial, delusional or they are company management spinning PR spam to help manage absolute circus that exists within.

I am back to 703/704 flying - 3 days on, 5 days off. $150k per year. Home every single night, no crash pad. 4 weeks (8 weeks) vacation per year. It takes basic math, basic Excel spreadsheet skills and knowledge on TFSA, RRSP contributions to realize how financially destructive even 2 or 3 years (5??) at Jazz can be on ones long term financial outcome.

3 months Jazz and gone and bitter about it all... A 2000 hour Air Taxi champion who is going to tell us all how it is.

And 3 months? That's barely finishing your type rating... or maybe not even that far, sounds like ATO/washout to me...

Oh man, that is gold. Lol. Guy's flying a king air, and has less total time than most of us have 705 time, and he's telling us how it is.

[RippleRock]

We have many enemies trying to "alter reality".

It's a fact that we now value what we do, in spite of ACPA who did everything in it's power to manage our expectations into the dirt on the Companies behalf. ACPA was an abomination, a cancer that's been excised. The scar will heal.

Another fact is that AC has PLENTY of money. They waste a ton of it every day on multiple layers of middle managers who do nothing but manage other managers. Removing a single layer of that management waste would more than cover a healthy "correction" in line with our actual worth. In spite of this waste, they still have PLENTY of money.

We are not worth ONE DIME less than our American colleagues. NOT ONE DIME. The job is identical in nearly every respect. Remember anything less than 50% on top of the 2002 wage package is simply a correction, NOT A RAISE.

The discount on pilot labour is OVER. Prepare for an onslaught of half-truths and lies from a system built around devaluing what we do and who we are.

IGNORE THEM.....KNOW YOUR WORTH......and above all.....

HOLD THE LINE.

[Fanblade]

Unless Androids persona is faked. He/She is an AC pilot based on the 8 posts since March 2023. Recently moved over from Express.

Sounds just like classic ACPA.

While I agree it sounds like classic ACPA or maybe a fake account... here's a post from 6 months ago.

I had the option along with another colleague / peer in Q2 / Q3 2022 to go to Flair or Jazz both of us ATPL less than 2000 TT - both successfully interviewed and both received offers. He chose Flair, I chose Jazz.

He flew Flair for 6 months before AC picked him up - FO 330 YVR. 3 other Flair pilots from the same GS left at the same time to AC, 737 and 320 FO. I flew Jazz 3 for months and quit in December, 3 months I will never get back and of course needless to say missed the fast track opportunity to AC. A massive miscalculation on my part, in part due to misinformation and endless delusional optimum within these forums.

This small anecdotal story speaks massive volumes, I have followed AV Canada Jazz forums for years - everyone here is either in denial, delusional or they are company management spinning PR spam to help manage absolute circus that exists within.

I am back to 703/704 flying - 3 days on, 5 days off. $150k per year. Home every single night, no crash pad. 4 weeks (8 weeks) vacation per year. It takes basic math, basic Excel spreadsheet skills and knowledge on TFSA, RRSP contributions to realize how financially destructive even 2 or 3 years (5??) at Jazz can be on ones long term financial outcome.

3 months Jazz and gone and bitter about it all... A 2000 hour Air Taxi champion who is going to tell us all how it is.

And 3 months? That's barely finishing your type rating... or maybe not even that far, sounds like ATO/washout to me...

I saw that as well. Read all the “we” comments referencing the AC pilot group in the quotes I posted from last week.

It’s possible 703/704 to Jazz. Then Jazz back to 703/704. Then 703/704 to AC.

But who knows. Real. Fake. Either way if she/he is here, they are a brand new hire ( a few months in) telling their new peers they are out too lunch with expectations.

The problem is that people have trouble getting their head wrapped around the % increases being thrown around. To some it looks unreasonable until you explain. See this % raise right here? That just gets us back to zero. It’s not a raise at all.

Then the conversation changes. How the heck did that happen???????

New hires may have the same issue. It’s why I asked the questions I did.

Are you worth less than 20 years ago? Do you understand what it would take just to return your pay to what it was?

[cdnavater]

Unless Androids persona is faked. He/She is an AC pilot based on the 8 posts since March 2023. Recently moved over from Express.

Sounds just like classic ACPA.

While I agree it sounds like classic ACPA or maybe a fake account... here's a post from 6 months ago.

I had the option along with another colleague / peer in Q2 / Q3 2022 to go to Flair or Jazz both of us ATPL less than 2000 TT - both successfully interviewed and both received offers. He chose Flair, I chose Jazz.

He flew Flair for 6 months before AC picked him up - FO 330 YVR. 3 other Flair pilots from the same GS left at the same time to AC, 737 and 320 FO. I flew Jazz 3 for months and quit in December, 3 months I will never get back and of course needless to say missed the fast track opportunity to AC. A massive miscalculation on my part, in part due to misinformation and endless delusional optimum within these forums.

This small anecdotal story speaks massive volumes, I have followed AV Canada Jazz forums for years - everyone here is either in denial, delusional or they are company management spinning PR spam to help manage absolute circus that exists within.

I am back to 703/704 flying - 3 days on, 5 days off. $150k per year. Home every single night, no crash pad. 4 weeks (8 weeks) vacation per year. It takes basic math, basic Excel spreadsheet skills and knowledge on TFSA, RRSP contributions to realize how financially destructive even 2 or 3 years (5??) at Jazz can be on ones long term financial outcome.

3 months Jazz and gone and bitter about it all... A 2000 hour Air Taxi champion who is going to tell us all how it is.

And 3 months? That's barely finishing your type rating... or maybe not even that far, sounds like ATO/washout to me...

The irony, if this android character is making 150k 703/704 3 on 5 off, how does that stack up to 20 years ago. Back then that job was 48-60 working week on, week off and that was one of the better 703 gigs.
My simple math tells me he’s overpaid for what he’s doing.

[Ash Ketchum]

Damn 150K and a good wlb at a 703, please do share where this is possible.

[PropDog]

Damn 150K and a good wlb at a 703, please do share where this is possible.

I would also like to know. For research purposes…

[accountant]

I think the biggest issue here that pilots are forgetting is that regardless of the fact you've missed 10-15 years of income "gains" because of the market, everyone else is in the same boat.

Inflation has killed everyone. Every industry. Ask doctors.... same disparity in Canada vs US. It's no different.

ALPA is a great union. Do you think they would have let WS sign their deal if they didn't think it was the best they would get? This is why I've said multiple times now you will get an increase, but nothing like a "united" contract. The goalposts will shift but you'll be fighting this battle another 10-15 years. ALPA can only get you what they think they can, and it's literally shifting the posts on each negotiation.

The only way for you to get a massive increase is for Canada to have 3-4 incumbents who are *STRONG*. The only one who stands a chance in 3rd is Porter. Everyone else is already failing (Flair will be gone in 18 months if not sooner, Lynx likely pretty similar). Your best bet is to have shorter contracts (or ones you can reopen early).

You'll see between 12-20% (top end) based on my estimates on pattern bargaining. I highly doubt you'll see more. If Jazz can't even get their request approved, don't be surprised if the mother ship shuts things down a few weeks to keep the gains in that range.

[Hysteria]

I think the biggest issue here that pilots are forgetting is that regardless of the fact you've missed 10-15 years of income "gains" because of the market, everyone else is in the same boat.

Inflation has killed everyone. Every industry. Ask doctors.... same disparity in Canada vs US. It's no different.

ALPA is a great union. Do you think they would have let WS sign their deal if they didn't think it was the best they would get? This is why I've said multiple times now you will get an increase, but nothing like a "united" contract. The goalposts will shift but you'll be fighting this battle another 10-15 years. ALPA can only get you what they think they can, and it's literally shifting the posts on each negotiation.

The only way for you to get a massive increase is for Canada to have 3-4 incumbents who are *STRONG*. The only one who stands a chance in 3rd is Porter. Everyone else is already failing (Flair will be gone in 18 months if not sooner, Lynx likely pretty similar). Your best bet is to have shorter contracts (or ones you can reopen early).

You'll see between 12-20% (top end) based on my estimates on pattern bargaining. I highly doubt you'll see more. If Jazz can't even get their request approved, don't be surprised if the mother ship shuts things down a few weeks to keep the gains in that range.

Is it safe to say you’re not on the picket line?

[RippleRock]

I think the biggest issue here that pilots are forgetting is that regardless of the fact you've missed 10-15 years of income "gains" because of the market, everyone else is in the same boat.

Inflation has killed everyone. Every industry. Ask doctors.... same disparity in Canada vs US. It's no different.

ALPA is a great union. Do you think they would have let WS sign their deal if they didn't think it was the best they would get? This is why I've said multiple times now you will get an increase, but nothing like a "united" contract. The goalposts will shift but you'll be fighting this battle another 10-15 years. ALPA can only get you what they think they can, and it's literally shifting the posts on each negotiation.

The only way for you to get a massive increase is for Canada to have 3-4 incumbents who are *STRONG*. The only one who stands a chance in 3rd is Porter. Everyone else is already failing (Flair will be gone in 18 months if not sooner, Lynx likely pretty similar). Your best bet is to have shorter contracts (or ones you can reopen early).

You'll see between 12-20% (top end) based on my estimates on pattern bargaining. I highly doubt you'll see more. If Jazz can't even get their request approved, don't be surprised if the mother ship shuts things down a few weeks to keep the gains in that range.

Why don't you outline your credentials?

If you're going to "speak like an expert" and we should all pay close attention, why don't you give us a reason?

If not, you're just another "junior management schill" trying to oppress unionized working groups to justify your dismal place in the "big machine". Or better yet just save us from reading you "rabble".

We will get what we get, nothing more or less. Your opinion is your opinion. We all have one, just like we all have something else to expel stuff from. If you think the stuff you're "expelling" has any more value or "smells better" than anyone else's opinion, you're likely wrong.

[accountant]

I think the biggest issue here that pilots are forgetting is that regardless of the fact you've missed 10-15 years of income "gains" because of the market, everyone else is in the same boat.

Inflation has killed everyone. Every industry. Ask doctors.... same disparity in Canada vs US. It's no different.

ALPA is a great union. Do you think they would have let WS sign their deal if they didn't think it was the best they would get? This is why I've said multiple times now you will get an increase, but nothing like a "united" contract. The goalposts will shift but you'll be fighting this battle another 10-15 years. ALPA can only get you what they think they can, and it's literally shifting the posts on each negotiation.

The only way for you to get a massive increase is for Canada to have 3-4 incumbents who are *STRONG*. The only one who stands a chance in 3rd is Porter. Everyone else is already failing (Flair will be gone in 18 months if not sooner, Lynx likely pretty similar). Your best bet is to have shorter contracts (or ones you can reopen early).

You'll see between 12-20% (top end) based on my estimates on pattern bargaining. I highly doubt you'll see more. If Jazz can't even get their request approved, don't be surprised if the mother ship shuts things down a few weeks to keep the gains in that range.

Is it safe to say you’re not on the picket line?

I'm not a pilot, nor am I a management schill. I do watch from the sidelines and analyze airlines financials.

Regardless of whether I'm on the picket line, the bar has been set with the WS negotiation. You're now in a downturn economically, and to expect anything more than what I've listed above will be surprising. I would be shocked if the flag carrier gave you larger gains than that (and would buy you dinner if they did)

[digits_]

Here's an interesting thought experiment:

Let's say you work at a company that's not Air Canada. And your manager walks up to you and says 'I'm willing to pay you whatever you request. But there's one catch: if your requested salary is *higher* than what Air Canada pilots will negotiate for the same years of seniority you currently hold at our company, you don't get any raise.'

What salary would you request?

It's all nice to shout 'hold the line', '233%' etc. But how much do you *think* they will actually get?