EXPECTED NUMBER OF RETIREES AT AC.

[Hysteria]

Don’t forget COVID caused a lot of pilots who were due to retire from 2020-2025ish to pull the plug early. The ALPA career progression app had retirements going back up in 2026 or 27.

Wait, are you saying there might be larger amounts of retirements - 2026 onward at AC? indicating another small hiring wave?

[cheeky cough]

100-150 per year for next 10 years.
I counted 1500 total in next 10 years.
Gen xers, and there are a lot, start going around 2034.
All airlines will be hurting.
Be patient everyone, you will all be where you want to be.
Watch your spending, do not get divorced, you will be fine.
Until the merger, then you are screwed….

[Brakefans]

How many pilots were in the seniority list when Covid hit and how many took early retirement packages?

[co-joe]

When were the last few hiring booms at AC?

2007

2011 - 2012

2016 - 2019

2022 - present [mass hiring rate to end mostly by end of next year].

So in 1 year the music will stop playing at AC? If we extrapolate from there based on previous cycles, there will still be seats at WestJet, Jazz, and Encore for another year or two of hiring, plus the expansion at the ULCC level. Based on this, and barring an economic catastrophe, the music on this massive wave should be done by some time in early 2026 or even late 2025?

[Mrpilot30]

Hello guys,,
Seeking advice here… would it be wise to go to encore right now? Get 100 pics and pay the extra 50 h out of my pocket to get the atp requirements.. Or stay where im at now flying single turboprop up north with the possibility to upgrade to capt within the next year but that would put me in a bond of 20k for 2 years..my goal is the mainline either westjet or AC just not sure which is the fastest way to get there…TT 800h
Thanks in advance..

[PropDog]

Hello guys,,
Seeking advice here… would it be wise to go to encore right now? Get 100 pics and pay the extra 50 h out of my pocket to get the atp requirements.. Or stay where im at now flying single turboprop up north with the possibility to upgrade to capt within the next year but that would put me in a bond of 20k for 2 years..my goal is the mainline either westjet or AC just not sure which is the fastest way to get there…TT 800h
Thanks in advance..

As fast as possible? Go to encore. Get to 2000 hours with your As and apply at AC. Or if you want WestJet do the same thing with Jazz instead of encore. OR go on the dash at Porter hand have both WJ and AC open to you.

[altiplano]

So in 1 year the music will stop playing at AC? If we extrapolate from there based on previous cycles, there will still be seats at WestJet, Jazz, and Encore for another year or two of hiring, plus the expansion at the ULCC level. Based on this, and barring an economic catastrophe, the music on this massive wave should be done by some time in early 2026 or even late 2025?

If the music up until the pandemic was rock, we've been playing speed metal the last almost 2 years...

The rate has been frantic and I expect we'll see it slow to a normalized rate, but not stop, within a year.

[co-joe]

So in 1 year the music will stop playing at AC? If we extrapolate from there based on previous cycles, there will still be seats at WestJet, Jazz, and Encore for another year or two of hiring, plus the expansion at the ULCC level. Based on this, and barring an economic catastrophe, the music on this massive wave should be done by some time in early 2026 or even late 2025?

If the music up until the pandemic was rock, we've been playing speed metal the last almost 2 years...

The rate has been frantic and I expect we'll see it slow to a normalized rate, but not stop, within a year.

No wonder I'm having so much fun.

[Hysteria]

So in 1 year the music will stop playing at AC? If we extrapolate from there based on previous cycles, there will still be seats at WestJet, Jazz, and Encore for another year or two of hiring, plus the expansion at the ULCC level. Based on this, and barring an economic catastrophe, the music on this massive wave should be done by some time in early 2026 or even late 2025?

If the music up until the pandemic was rock, we've been playing speed metal the last almost 2 years...

The rate has been frantic and I expect we'll see it slow to a normalized rate, but not stop, within a year.

Hey Alti, with the rate of hiring in the past 5 years, how much, if at all, has your relative seniority or even more senior guys’ schedules improved - do you have higher credit pairings with more days off?

[altiplano]

So in 1 year the music will stop playing at AC? If we extrapolate from there based on previous cycles, there will still be seats at WestJet, Jazz, and Encore for another year or two of hiring, plus the expansion at the ULCC level. Based on this, and barring an economic catastrophe, the music on this massive wave should be done by some time in early 2026 or even late 2025?

If the music up until the pandemic was rock, we've been playing speed metal the last almost 2 years...

The rate has been frantic and I expect we'll see it slow to a normalized rate, but not stop, within a year.

Hey Alti, with the rate of hiring in the past 5 years, how much, if at all, has your relative seniority or even more senior guys’ schedules improved - do you have higher credit pairings with more days off?

No. AC has socialized PBS with the optimizer and virtually everyone except the top 10 or so work max days to cover the highly inefficient pairings being produced. If I bid high credit days, they will just be offset with junk.

I mostly do the type of flying I like, but I can't get around working the max days, and often I get some dogshit in my block as junior flying gets swapped in.

[Hysteria]

If the music up until the pandemic was rock, we've been playing speed metal the last almost 2 years...

The rate has been frantic and I expect we'll see it slow to a normalized rate, but not stop, within a year.

Hey Alti, with the rate of hiring in the past 5 years, how much, if at all, has your relative seniority or even more senior guys’ schedules improved - do you have higher credit pairings with more days off?

No. AC has socialized PBS with the optimizer and virtually everyone except the top 10 or so work max days to cover the highly inefficient pairings being produced. If I bid high credit days, they will just be offset with junk.

I mostly do the type of flying I like, but I can't get around working the max days, and often I get some dogshit in my block as junior flying gets swapped in.

Interesting. Thanks for the response