What's up with AC?

Discuss topics relating to Air Canada.

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twa22
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by twa22 »

cdnavater wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 6:07 pm
twa22 wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 4:28 pm
cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm

I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
"Air transport in Canada is forecast to grow by 51% in the next 20 years under the “current trends” scenario. This would result in an additional 39.8 million passenger journeys by 2037. If met, this increased demand would support approximately US $73.3 billion of GDP and almost 800,650 jobs."

https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository ... -aviation/

Albeit a slightly older publication, it's straight from IATA... you keep touting there's going to be a huge slow down and it'll only be retirements... there is literally nothing that says that will be the case... also, as of just recently, global demand changed to even more growth in the next 20 years

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... 0by%202043.
Keep in mind IATA projections are biased, they looking through rose coloured glasses and they are selling their projections, so grain of salt
and so every other publication that forecasts continues growth is biased also...? Come on, be realistic, the earth's population is growing, and so is Canada's, this you can't deny. The only thing that can be questioned is to what extent the population will grow here and in other parts of the world, but either way, it's growing and their will be increased demand going forward without a doubt, so I'm not sure why you think there will be a slow down like back in the day, but you do you and believe what you want...
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

twa22 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 3:44 am
cdnavater wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 6:07 pm
twa22 wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 4:28 pm

"Air transport in Canada is forecast to grow by 51% in the next 20 years under the “current trends” scenario. This would result in an additional 39.8 million passenger journeys by 2037. If met, this increased demand would support approximately US $73.3 billion of GDP and almost 800,650 jobs."

https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository ... -aviation/

Albeit a slightly older publication, it's straight from IATA... you keep touting there's going to be a huge slow down and it'll only be retirements... there is literally nothing that says that will be the case... also, as of just recently, global demand changed to even more growth in the next 20 years

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... 0by%202043.
Keep in mind IATA projections are biased, they looking through rose coloured glasses and they are selling their projections, so grain of salt
and so every other publication that forecasts continues growth is biased also...? Come on, be realistic, the earth's population is growing, and so is Canada's, this you can't deny. The only thing that can be questioned is to what extent the population will grow here and in other parts of the world, but either way, it's growing and their will be increased demand going forward without a doubt, so I'm not sure why you think there will be a slow down like back in the day, but you do you and believe what you want...
I don’t know if every other forecast is biased or using the IATA forecast, if they are selling something based on future predictions, assume it’s biased. Even the IATA forecast contains different futures under different scenarios, they are selling a product, they even admit there are many variables that can change the forecast, example, they are talking about the increased middle class, guess what’s decreasing in Canada, the middle class, people are going to be hurting if the interest rate doesn’t go down before the massive mortgage renewals.
They are also going long term, which I am merely pointing near term there could be some pain for some.
Guess what is guaranteed, none of us know or can predict the future, if we could, well I guess we would have something to sell
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

CaptDukeNukem wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 9:35 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 2:27 pm
cdnavater wrote: Sat Jul 20, 2024 1:24 pm

I agree, however growth will not continue much longer than another year, if that, anyone doing their training now should factor a lot longer in the right seat when it becomes movement due to retirement only, with every boom there is a bust.
Thinking Porter will continue to grow to 100 fins if the market doesn’t support it would be a mistake, Flair has already shown it does not have the ability to continue growing and as for AC, how much of AC growth did not have Porter market share built in, I assume they weren’t counting on that or at least to 100 fins. Those seats will come at the expense of other seats going empty, Canada is unable to support that many aircraft.
Things are already slowing and of course at the risk of all the opposition to a recession, my gut still tells me it’s looming
True, it does seem ambitious to grow to 100 tails. Flair has pretty much stopped delivery so you have a point but I'm just basing most of my assumptions on everyone's planned growth. What will actually happen is anyone's guess. I do know AC will be adding more fins to its fleet, and even if porter stops at 50 tails, still another what, 15 to go with 6-8 pilots per tail? AC still needs over 1000+ pilots. There is still a lot of available flight crew seats open to be filled. On a side note, are the grounded Embraers at Jazz going to be flying again? I haven't heard much about them lately. Maybe they are and I'm way behind.
Porter has confirmed orders for 75. Pretty sure that means they won’t stop at 50.

25 options to be exercised in some fashion in the future.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/por ... 41.article


But yes, pilots are definitely gonna be needed. And there’s no way 6-8 pilots per tail is enough. Maybe 6-8 captains, and another 6-8 FOs
Let’s revisit this post next year and see how we’re doing, are you running all of them, increased spares, cancellations, delayed delivery, all possibilities.
I wish you the best and continued growth but I wouldn’t be counting my seniority numbers based on what orders are on the books.
Back when Jazz started operating the 757, after the first 6, we were supposed to grow to 20(I believe), guess what didn’t happen!
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twa22
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by twa22 »

cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:38 pm
twa22 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 3:44 am
cdnavater wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 6:07 pm
Keep in mind IATA projections are biased, they looking through rose coloured glasses and they are selling their projections, so grain of salt
and so every other publication that forecasts continues growth is biased also...? Come on, be realistic, the earth's population is growing, and so is Canada's, this you can't deny. The only thing that can be questioned is to what extent the population will grow here and in other parts of the world, but either way, it's growing and their will be increased demand going forward without a doubt, so I'm not sure why you think there will be a slow down like back in the day, but you do you and believe what you want...
Guess what is guaranteed, none of us know or can predict the future, if we could, well I guess we would have something to sell
That we can agree on, I just like to be more on the optimistic side
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

twa22 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 2:10 pm
cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:38 pm
twa22 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 3:44 am

and so every other publication that forecasts continues growth is biased also...? Come on, be realistic, the earth's population is growing, and so is Canada's, this you can't deny. The only thing that can be questioned is to what extent the population will grow here and in other parts of the world, but either way, it's growing and their will be increased demand going forward without a doubt, so I'm not sure why you think there will be a slow down like back in the day, but you do you and believe what you want...
Guess what is guaranteed, none of us know or can predict the future, if we could, well I guess we would have something to sell
That we can agree on, I just like to be more on the optimistic side
Probably a good way to look at things, I’ve been at this over 30 years now, probably a bit on the pessimistic side of things.
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by Blueontop »

cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 2:17 pm
twa22 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 2:10 pm
cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:38 pm

Guess what is guaranteed, none of us know or can predict the future, if we could, well I guess we would have something to sell
That we can agree on, I just like to be more on the optimistic side
Probably a good way to look at things, I’ve been at this over 30 years now, probably a bit on the pessimistic side of things.
Gee really? Would never have thought that :roll:
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

Blueontop wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 3:05 pm
cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 2:17 pm
twa22 wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 2:10 pm :?

That we can agree on, I just like to be more on the optimistic side
Probably a good way to look at things, I’ve been at this over 30 years now, probably a bit on the pessimistic side of things.
Gee really? Would never have thought that :roll:
Thanks for your thoughtful contribution, with the future of aviation in the hands of professionals like you, what could go wrong
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CaptDukeNukem
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by CaptDukeNukem »

cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:42 pm
CaptDukeNukem wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 9:35 pm
flying4dollars wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 2:27 pm

True, it does seem ambitious to grow to 100 tails. Flair has pretty much stopped delivery so you have a point but I'm just basing most of my assumptions on everyone's planned growth. What will actually happen is anyone's guess. I do know AC will be adding more fins to its fleet, and even if porter stops at 50 tails, still another what, 15 to go with 6-8 pilots per tail? AC still needs over 1000+ pilots. There is still a lot of available flight crew seats open to be filled. On a side note, are the grounded Embraers at Jazz going to be flying again? I haven't heard much about them lately. Maybe they are and I'm way behind.
Porter has confirmed orders for 75. Pretty sure that means they won’t stop at 50.

25 options to be exercised in some fashion in the future.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/por ... 41.article


But yes, pilots are definitely gonna be needed. And there’s no way 6-8 pilots per tail is enough. Maybe 6-8 captains, and another 6-8 FOs
Let’s revisit this post next year and see how we’re doing, are you running all of them, increased spares, cancellations, delayed delivery, all possibilities.
I wish you the best and continued growth but I wouldn’t be counting my seniority numbers based on what orders are on the books.
Back when Jazz started operating the 757, after the first 6, we were supposed to grow to 20(I believe), guess what didn’t happen!
Looking forward to it. When can I come see your retirement water cannon party?
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

CaptDukeNukem wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 6:00 pm
cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:42 pm
CaptDukeNukem wrote: Sun Jul 21, 2024 9:35 pm

Porter has confirmed orders for 75. Pretty sure that means they won’t stop at 50.

25 options to be exercised in some fashion in the future.

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/por ... 41.article


But yes, pilots are definitely gonna be needed. And there’s no way 6-8 pilots per tail is enough. Maybe 6-8 captains, and another 6-8 FOs
Let’s revisit this post next year and see how we’re doing, are you running all of them, increased spares, cancellations, delayed delivery, all possibilities.
I wish you the best and continued growth but I wouldn’t be counting my seniority numbers based on what orders are on the books.
Back when Jazz started operating the 757, after the first 6, we were supposed to grow to 20(I believe), guess what didn’t happen!
Looking forward to it. When can I come see your retirement water cannon party?
I’ll only invite you if you quit being a whiny child about how bad it was at Jazz after you helped screw over Jazz working for a bottom feeder, I’m certain that you don’t see the irony of complaining about the conditions after working for the reason our conditions were the way the were, so continue being you!
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Blueontop
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by Blueontop »

cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:48 pm
Blueontop wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 3:05 pm
cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 2:17 pm

Probably a good way to look at things, I’ve been at this over 30 years now, probably a bit on the pessimistic side of things.
Gee really? Would never have thought that :roll:
Thanks for your thoughtful contribution, with the future of aviation in the hands of professionals like you, what could go wrong
I can guarantee it won't be any worse than the dumpster fire your hands "gifted" to us..
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

Blueontop wrote: Tue Jul 23, 2024 9:15 am
cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:48 pm
Blueontop wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 3:05 pm

Gee really? Would never have thought that :roll:
Thanks for your thoughtful contribution, with the future of aviation in the hands of professionals like you, what could go wrong
I can guarantee it won't be any worse than the dumpster fire your hands "gifted" to us..
You know what, you’re right! All the hard work of the current close to retirement pilots from strikes and hard fought contract improvements have been undone over the past 15 years from shitheads willing to undercut and lower the bar, so blame them if anyone. I can hold my head high from my conduct over the last 30 plus years, I can accept that I had lost my will to fight and chose to limp my way to retirement, I pass the burnt out torch to you, giver buddy! I hope you can get it back to the once highly respected profession it was, good luck
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DanWEC
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by DanWEC »

Before more misplaced anger gets thrown at a blanket generation of collegues, don't forget that all of the proverbial wind was taken put of the sails 12 years ago by Lisa fucking Rat and the PC's. They eliminated the only true power the union has.
Naturally the corporation, being utterly bereft of conscience and morals, entirely ran with it with the help of some complicit reps. This is the true reason we've had a decade of pilots in apartments with multiple roommates while "Flying the flag".
I'm glad that legislation has now been permenantly reversed, and I'm also glad she needed private security at her house after that, and has finally left politics.
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braaap Braap
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by braaap Braap »

DanWEC wrote: Tue Jul 23, 2024 9:49 am Before more misplaced anger gets thrown at a blanket generation of collegues, don't forget that all of the proverbial wind was taken put of the sails 12 years ago by Lisa fucking Rat and the PC's. They eliminated the only true power the union has.
Naturally the corporation, being utterly bereft of conscience and morals, entirely ran with it with the help of some complicit reps. This is the true reason we've had a decade of pilots in apartments with multiple roommates while "Flying the flag".
I'm glad that legislation has now been permenantly reversed, and I'm also glad she needed private security at her house after that, and has finally left politics.
Well said!

Instead of going at each others' throats in a tit for tat we should be channeling this frustration to the power players that actually keep us down (ultra rich and the corrupt politicians)
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by Blueontop »

braaap Braap wrote: Tue Jul 23, 2024 10:50 am
DanWEC wrote: Tue Jul 23, 2024 9:49 am Before more misplaced anger gets thrown at a blanket generation of collegues, don't forget that all of the proverbial wind was taken put of the sails 12 years ago by Lisa fucking Rat and the PC's. They eliminated the only true power the union has.
Naturally the corporation, being utterly bereft of conscience and morals, entirely ran with it with the help of some complicit reps. This is the true reason we've had a decade of pilots in apartments with multiple roommates while "Flying the flag".
I'm glad that legislation has now been permenantly reversed, and I'm also glad she needed private security at her house after that, and has finally left politics.
Well said!

Instead of going at each others' throats in a tit for tat we should be channeling this frustration to the power players that actually keep us down (ultra rich and the corrupt politicians)
Yup you are 100% right. (Lisa Rat would not enjoy me being in her near presence if that were to ever come to pass)
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CaptDukeNukem
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by CaptDukeNukem »

cdnavater wrote: Tue Jul 23, 2024 8:58 am
CaptDukeNukem wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 6:00 pm
cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:42 pm

Let’s revisit this post next year and see how we’re doing, are you running all of them, increased spares, cancellations, delayed delivery, all possibilities.
I wish you the best and continued growth but I wouldn’t be counting my seniority numbers based on what orders are on the books.
Back when Jazz started operating the 757, after the first 6, we were supposed to grow to 20(I believe), guess what didn’t happen!
Looking forward to it. When can I come see your retirement water cannon party?
I’ll only invite you if you quit being a whiny child about how bad it was at Jazz after you helped screw over Jazz working for a bottom feeder, I’m certain that you don’t see the irony of complaining about the conditions after working for the reason our conditions were the way the were, so continue being you!
Thanks. It’ll be great to meet you in person. I’ll be the guy wearing the clown costume.
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cdnavater
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

CaptDukeNukem wrote: Tue Jul 23, 2024 3:40 pm
cdnavater wrote: Tue Jul 23, 2024 8:58 am
CaptDukeNukem wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 6:00 pm

Looking forward to it. When can I come see your retirement water cannon party?
I’ll only invite you if you quit being a whiny child about how bad it was at Jazz after you helped screw over Jazz working for a bottom feeder, I’m certain that you don’t see the irony of complaining about the conditions after working for the reason our conditions were the way the were, so continue being you!
Thanks. It’ll be great to meet you in person. I’ll be the guy wearing the clown costume.
Funny, that’s exactly how I pictured you!
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goldeneagle
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by goldeneagle »

cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:38 pm people are going to be hurting if the interest rate doesn’t go down before the massive mortgage renewals.
Rates went up a couple years ago. Those with a floating rate felt it right away. Those on a term shorter than 5 years have likely already hit renewal, and close to half of those on 5 year terms will have gone thru a renewal by now. Bottom line, the majority of the interest rate pain on mortgages has already been absorbed, and for those still on a 5 year term with renewal coming, rates are headed down, was another cut today. They have missed the worst of the recent bump.

Yes, there was some squealing along the way from those over extended, but we all knew this was going to come eventually, it's the reason mortgage qualification rules changed some years back, to ensure folks were able to absorb a rate bump.

Those waiting on the massive hit due to mortgage renewals are going to be sorely disappointed, that time has come, and is on the way out now.
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twa22
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by twa22 »

goldeneagle wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2024 2:44 pm
cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:38 pm people are going to be hurting if the interest rate doesn’t go down before the massive mortgage renewals.
Rates went up a couple years ago. Those with a floating rate felt it right away. Those on a term shorter than 5 years have likely already hit renewal, and close to half of those on 5 year terms will have gone thru a renewal by now. Bottom line, the majority of the interest rate pain on mortgages has already been absorbed, and for those still on a 5 year term with renewal coming, rates are headed down, was another cut today. They have missed the worst of the recent bump.

Yes, there was some squealing along the way from those over extended, but we all knew this was going to come eventually, it's the reason mortgage qualification rules changed some years back, to ensure folks were able to absorb a rate bump.

Those waiting on the massive hit due to mortgage renewals are going to be sorely disappointed, that time has come, and is on the way out now.
There are still those who bought in 2020 and 2021 at 2% on closed 5 years that will still feel the pain... but, considering that rates are around 5.1 now, and assuming they drop to 4% in 2025/2026, the hit won't be as bad... it'll still hurt just nowhere near going from 2% to 7%
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Inverted2
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by Inverted2 »

The thing people don’t realize is that if Canada lowers interest rates and the US doesn’t, the Canadian peso will drop in value and the price of imported goods will increase and therefore increase inflation, so you’re gonna pay for it one way or another. :rolleyes:
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

goldeneagle wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2024 2:44 pm
cdnavater wrote: Mon Jul 22, 2024 12:38 pm people are going to be hurting if the interest rate doesn’t go down before the massive mortgage renewals.
Rates went up a couple years ago. Those with a floating rate felt it right away. Those on a term shorter than 5 years have likely already hit renewal, and close to half of those on 5 year terms will have gone thru a renewal by now. Bottom line, the majority of the interest rate pain on mortgages has already been absorbed, and for those still on a 5 year term with renewal coming, rates are headed down, was another cut today. They have missed the worst of the recent bump.

Yes, there was some squealing along the way from those over extended, but we all knew this was going to come eventually, it's the reason mortgage qualification rules changed some years back, to ensure folks were able to absorb a rate bump.

Those waiting on the massive hit due to mortgage renewals are going to be sorely disappointed, that time has come, and is on the way out now.
Your post seems to be more of a guess based on your opinion, I have one of those 2.4% mortgages coming up for renewal in March as do many Canadians, more than in 2024. It seems the pain is not over yet for almost half of Canada’s mortgage holders, we’re only half way through 2024 and even more due in 2025, maybe post some facts instead of conjecture next time.

https://cmsmortgages.ca/mortgage-renewa ... 20increase.

“Here’s a crazy statistic: 80% of all mortgages outstanding as of March 2022 are coming up for renewal in 2024. This amounts to approximately $250 billion in mortgages. 2025 is expected to be an even bigger year with a whopping $350 billion in mortgage renewals expected. Although rate cuts are within sight, between now and 2026, almost all mortgage holders will see an increase in their mortgage payments – some as high as a 54% increase.“

“In 2024 and 2025, 2.2 million mortgages — 45% of the country’s outstanding mortgages — will be up for renewal, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation”
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by goldeneagle »

cdnavater wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2024 8:16 pm Your post seems to be more of a guess based on your opinion, I have one of those 2.4% mortgages coming up for renewal in March as do many Canadians, more than in 2024. It seems the pain is not over yet for almost half of Canada’s mortgage holders, we’re only half way through 2024 and even more due in 2025, maybe post some facts instead of conjecture next time.

https://cmsmortgages.ca/mortgage-renewa ... 20increase.

“Here’s a crazy statistic: 80% of all mortgages outstanding as of March 2022 are coming up for renewal in 2024. This amounts to approximately $250 billion in mortgages. 2025 is expected to be an even bigger year with a whopping $350 billion in mortgage renewals expected. Although rate cuts are within sight, between now and 2026, almost all mortgage holders will see an increase in their mortgage payments – some as high as a 54% increase.“

“In 2024 and 2025, 2.2 million mortgages — 45% of the country’s outstanding mortgages — will be up for renewal, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation”
My numbers are based on simple math, what I dont have is the ratio of floating to fixed mortgages. For fixed, it is reasonable to assume they roll over at a fairly consistent rate, based on 5 year terms, that would be about 20% of them each year. There is likely a small artificial bump for those that choose a term shorter than 5 years. At 20% a year, with a small bump from shorter terms, that jives with the cmhc numbers saying 45% in 2024 and 2025.

You quote two sources, one a mortgage broker , the other being cmhc (the folks that provide mortgage insurance). CMHC likely has a much better handle on the overall market than a broker trying to sell folks on refinancing, and their numbers (45% in 2024 and 2025) pretty much jive with mine.

Guess the real question, who is making up crazy statistics, the mortgage broker you quote, or the cmhc in the second part of your quote ?
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by DanWEC »

Those are two different data points.

I could see 80% of the mortgages outstanding from 2022 and prior up for renewal in 24/25. Those are the remaining 2-5 year terms only.

That differs from the other stat of 45% of ALL mortgage renewals happening in 24/25.
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Re: What's up with AC?

Post by cdnavater »

goldeneagle wrote: Thu Jul 25, 2024 12:52 pm
cdnavater wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2024 8:16 pm Your post seems to be more of a guess based on your opinion, I have one of those 2.4% mortgages coming up for renewal in March as do many Canadians, more than in 2024. It seems the pain is not over yet for almost half of Canada’s mortgage holders, we’re only half way through 2024 and even more due in 2025, maybe post some facts instead of conjecture next time.

https://cmsmortgages.ca/mortgage-renewa ... 20increase.

“Here’s a crazy statistic: 80% of all mortgages outstanding as of March 2022 are coming up for renewal in 2024. This amounts to approximately $250 billion in mortgages. 2025 is expected to be an even bigger year with a whopping $350 billion in mortgage renewals expected. Although rate cuts are within sight, between now and 2026, almost all mortgage holders will see an increase in their mortgage payments – some as high as a 54% increase.“

“In 2024 and 2025, 2.2 million mortgages — 45% of the country’s outstanding mortgages — will be up for renewal, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation”
My numbers are based on simple math, what I dont have is the ratio of floating to fixed mortgages. For fixed, it is reasonable to assume they roll over at a fairly consistent rate, based on 5 year terms, that would be about 20% of them each year. There is likely a small artificial bump for those that choose a term shorter than 5 years. At 20% a year, with a small bump from shorter terms, that jives with the cmhc numbers saying 45% in 2024 and 2025.

You quote two sources, one a mortgage broker , the other being cmhc (the folks that provide mortgage insurance). CMHC likely has a much better handle on the overall market than a broker trying to sell folks on refinancing, and their numbers (45% in 2024 and 2025) pretty much jive with mine.

Guess the real question, who is making up crazy statistics, the mortgage broker you quote, or the cmhc in the second part of your quote ?
There is so many variables that only people with the actual data can predict, there are many sources that predicted the significant increase of renewals in 2025 versus 2024. The housing market also has peak times during the summer and slows in the winter for most markets, so you can likely expect most mortgages to come due during those peaks, either way, if you search you will find, non biased sources reported the 350 billion in mortgages being renewed in 2025.
I know at least 3(4, just asked my buddy beside me, due in February) people personally that are sub 2% and due early in 2025, my interest is going to double. It won’t really hurt too bad as my mortgage is not a million dollars but some peoples are.
The pain is not yet over and a couple more rate cuts before next year will certainly help stave off the real pain but my disposable income is definitely being affected by interest, who knew cheap money could come back to bite you later on.
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JoeyBarton
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2014 6:02 am

Re: What's up with AC?

Post by JoeyBarton »

How about focusing on real facts at AC rather than who is due for a mortgage or not?
Facts: 211 planes dec 2024, 228 dec 2025. That alone should dictate the short-medium term hiring. Feel pessimistic? Okay then, subtract 20% from that growth and you still end up with more fins at the end of 2025 than 2024. Which means more hiring.
Operating margins are forecast to be decreasing a bit not plummeting.
Somebody in 2022 who said yeah but recession is coming has lost 1500 numbers by saying no to AC and would be an AC captain by now.
Somebody in 2023 who said yeah but for sure the recession will hit, is now 800 numbers behind.
And so on.
So to each their own, but these are the hard facts.
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Dockjock
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Posts: 1076
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2004 1:46 pm
Location: south saturn delta

Re: What's up with AC?

Post by Dockjock »

Fleet by year.

2006 199
2007 207
2008 200
2009 202
2010 205
2011 205
2012 205
2013 193
2014 200
2015 210
2016 213
2017 224
2018 237
2019 252
2020 208
2021 214
2022 231

2024 211
2025 228

Not really growing. 10% over 20 years. Data 2006-2022 from annual reports.
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