C'mon is that what your stock broker tried pull on you
Let's not bring in the broker guy .....it's either him or e-trade. Get it! He is also a good friend of my father, so..........
Your correct Kelowna, there is more to the depression. For ex: the Smoot & Holey act, which is also another cause that many people overlook.
But if you have to sum up what happened on Oct. 29th, 1929, in a couple of sentences........
Because international trade declined sharply (Smoot-Holey act), tax revenues decline, corporate profits declined & lack of government intervention, shareholders began to panic & started to sell off everything! After that, it was only a matter of time before stocks prices became equal to toillet paper prices.
That is why it is important for people not to panic & to look at the market in the long run. In the short run, it doesn't make any sense......unless you a technical trader who uses ridiculous tactics like: headn'shoulders, flag pole, saucer cup, etc.....
I don't beleive we are in for anoher big one. Why? Because in 1929, the government couldn't fiscaly react to the economy like it can today. It was more of a free market then!
Today, if anything like that happens, the U.S government will start spenidng like crazy & start creating new jobs! They will even pull out of Iraq in order to save their economy.
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Asking a pilot about what he thinks of Transport Canada, is like asking a fire hydrant what does he think about dogs.
Iceman, do you understand that many people think it's already too late and the government should have reacted last year? I don't think you realize how bad their economy is right now. The person who's responsible for 70% of the USA's GDP is broke, in debt up to their ears, etc. It's the average consumer. How do you get them to spend again, when they're losing jobs in droves, defaulting on mortgages in droves, living on a credit card... where do I end?
Good question. Many airline CEO's are concerned about the next 12-24 months. Traffic growth has flat lined and is anticipated to decline. This presents a problem as airlines take delivery of airplanes. How this will play out is anyone's guess. Airline CEO's are concerned their will be more bankruptcies in the months ahead. There is speculation that there will be consolodation in the US.
From a pilot perspective, there is huge demand for pilots to fly all of these planes on order. There is an initiative at IATA to come up with ways to address training on a global basis to meet the demand.
The way you asked the question about "how I am doin in 2008", shows that your most probably a short term trader. To be honest, I haven't made a single trade in 2008!
I am a very patient trader, & I have invested wisely in energy companies! So to answer your question.....let's just say, I won't need to be worried about money in long time!
Well ICE have you ever heard of buy low and sell high? Why not take some profits on your stocks and buy them back when the market bottoms out. So who cares what kind of trader I am. Who ever makes the most money wins.
Iceman, do you understand that many people think it's already too late and the government should have reacted last year? I don't think you realize how bad their economy is right now. The person who's responsible for 70% of the USA's GDP is broke, in debt up to their ears, etc. It's the average consumer. How do you get them to spend again, when they're losing jobs in droves, defaulting on mortgages in droves, living on a credit card... where do I end?
Of course, & that's going to lead to an economic dowturn for 2008. Eastern Canada is going to take a big hit this year.
But Fourlough, borrowing money is the American way & there is nothing that is going to change that. Savings last year in the U.S was at -7%......meanwhile canada is at 0%....Financing is a lot easier to get in the U.S.......many go for second, third mortagages on extra property. Their economy has been running that way for decades.
But like I said, give it about a year. The Fed cuts will kick in & the problem will slowing normalize....remember that unemployment is also low. So the rate cuts should help them by next summer.
There will an economic downturn, that's for sure. But when people here start making claims, that were in for a crash! C'mon
The federal governent is ready to respond towards potential economic crisis. Remember black monday in 1987? The Dow had a 22.6% fall. Short term interest rates were drasticaly cut & spending went up, preventing another depression.
For ex: in the link below, this guy belives that there will be a market crash in sept. 2009, based on astrological reasons! http://www.cellwarn.co.za/
Well ICE have you ever heard of buy low and sell high? Why not take some profits on your stocks and buy them back when the market bottoms out. So who cares what kind of trader I am.
"The stock Market is not a way of creating wealth, it is a way of maintaining wealth."
-Warren Buffet
Why would I invest now when most of my portfolio is into eneregy stock. Last time I checked, there is a Bullish trend within the energy sector.
Who ever makes the most money wins.
Oh ya, it works like that.
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Asking a pilot about what he thinks of Transport Canada, is like asking a fire hydrant what does he think about dogs.
I don't beleive we are in for anoher big one. Why? Because in 1929, the government couldn't fiscaly react to the economy like it can today. It was more of a free market then!
Today, if anything like that happens, the U.S government will start spenidng like crazy & start creating new jobs! They will even pull out of Iraq in order to save their economy.
When the US government starts spending money like crazy where is this money coming from. It comes hot off the press, the reason their dollar has tanked. You can't just keep doing that without any consequences. Again the US national debt is 9 TRILLION dollars and continues to increase at a rate of 1.5 BILIION PER DAY. How long can this go on without consequence? Here's a link to a debt clock to show you just how fast it's going up
Good question. Many airline CEO's are concerned about the next 12-24 months. Traffic growth has flat lined and is anticipated to decline. This presents a problem as airlines take delivery of airplanes.
The airlines simply defer orders, cancel orders or park planes in the desert, among other things.
"Orders" in and of themselves are not a be all end-all predictor.
From a pilot perspective, there is huge demand for pilots to fly all of these planes on order. There is an initiative at IATA to come up with ways to address training on a global basis to meet the demand.
Another example of an industry lobby group that forgets the history of cycles and places more value on "positive spin" than calm reality. India, for example, which was supposed to be the big 'boom' place for aviation, now has so many Indian CPL holders that they can't find jobs for all of them.
The euro countries, Japanese, Chinese, taiwanese, korean, Saudis, etc.... have billions invested in the U.S Market.
It's the theory of the Blance of accounts...
CA "current account" - KA "capital account" = balance of payments
The U.S current account is the red big time. But Kapital investments are up from foreign ivestors, investing in the U.S markets!
The foreign countries listed above all have billions invested in the U.S markets. If they fall, they fall...don't worry, they would join along with the IMF on order to prevent Hyper Inflatation!
Your right....this argument is going nowhere!
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Asking a pilot about what he thinks of Transport Canada, is like asking a fire hydrant what does he think about dogs.
except that no country would be immune to the US recession, or even depression, if it gets that bad. You really think that the money will automatically flow in to the US to save their ass?
As far as responding to the original post, I don't think the music will stop in Canada for a little while yet, but it would probably be best to pick a seat now and get as far up the list as you can, while you can. The Canadian slowdown will probably be a year or two after the US, since (thankfully) we're a bit better positioned (trade surplus, budget surplus, "petro-dollar", no subprime mess, etc.), but when the US implodes, the whole world will feel it to a greater or lesser extent.
And Cat is right, things will get worse after the election. Bush and Bernanke will try and create as much debt..err...I mean "liquidity"....as they can to keep the artificial bubble inflated as long as they can, and once the new regime gets in, the pain will begin.
Is there really anyone left who actually thinks that artificially lowering interest rates will help the economy this time around? How are interest rates lowered? By increasing the money supply. How is the money supply increased? By issuing debt, either foreign or domestic. (Nearly all money in existence was created by issuing debt). Why are the Americans in so much trouble? Too much debt, commercial, government and private. America's economy has run on debt for wayyyy too long, and sometime (soon) it's going to revert to the mean. Everything does. Doesn't it strike anyone as absurd that Bush is offering a stimulus package which amounts to $600 per household? Who is paying for the package? The government. Who is the government? The taxpayer! The taxpayer is going to have to pay back that $600 plus interest!
I tend to go with the idea that there will be a crash. If not a crash, then a looong, slow recession, Japanese style. Best to hope for a quick crash, I think. The problem is that there aren't many people around who remember what a real bear market is like. The long-term average bull market lasts 16 years, with various recessions interspersed, followed by a nearly identical bear cycle. This present bull market started in 1982 and lasted until 1999. Right on cue. The problem is that Mr. Greenspan decided to keep the party going by lowering interest rates to absurd levels. Enter the housing bubble and the consumer credit binge. Everyone gets used to their present circumstances and has a hard believing that things will ever change. "It's different this time". There will always be manias, because the majority always jumps in near the top and sells at the bottom. Want to do well in finance? Study psychology. "Buy and hold" for the long term only works in a bull market, and that ship is sailing.
Recessions are indeed good. Painful, for some, but good. You need recessions to wring out the malinvestments caused by too much easy money. The problem isn't that governments didn't react enough in the past, it's that they've tried to do too much. The Depression of the 30's was excascerbated by government intervention, among other things (the New Deal, price and wage controls, etc.). The same thing is happening again. I think most people would agree that the economic version of communism can't survive. Well, that's what's happening today in North America, and in much of the rest of the world. Economies today are being centrally planned on a scale that would make Lenin smile. Why isn't the market allowed to price interest rates, instead of privately owned Central Banks?
Oh...what the hell....while I'm on a rant....
The main reason why the US has been the world's reserve currency is that due to various agreements orchestrated 30-40 years ago, Saudi Arabian and the rest of Opec oil sales have to be settled in US dollars. This has created a very large demand for dollars, artificially propping up the value, while allowing the Fed to print as much money as they want. Do you think it's a coincidence that the US invaded Iraq shortly after Saddam started to settle his oil sales in Euros? The same with Iran. They've been trying to set up an oil clearing house for several years now, with the intent of pricing all exchanges in Euros. The US doesn't care if they have nuclear weapons, they need to protect their currency.
As has been stated, nobody wants to see the US currency go into the shitter, since Asia and the Middle East have huge reserves of dollars. This is why the rest of the world is printing money at nearly the furious pace that the Americans are, in a race to the bottom of currency devaluation. But they're also liquidating parts of their reserves by buying US assets (real, tangible items, not just paper money) at bargain basement prices. And the Chinese and Russians, as well as the Arabs, are slowly increasing their gold reserves, while the West has been selling off their own gold.
So...what the hell am I getting at? I can't remember, anymore.......
Oh yes...the party has gone on for far too long, it should have ended in 2000. But we've tried to avoid the hangover by drinking ever larger amounts of alcohol. I think this time it's REALLY going to hurt....Get rid of your debt, hang on to a good job, and buy some gold.
Geez...I've given myself a headache....why didn't someone stop me?.....
Illegal immigration that is sucking the last of the life blood out of legal American citizens...made worse by politicians giving them voting rights so they can stay in power.
It may get very ugly after the election.
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The hardest thing about flying is knowing when to say no
After over a half a century of flying no one ever died because of my decision not to fly.
except that no country would be immune to the US recession, or even depression, if it gets that bad. You really think that the money will automatically flow in to the US to save their ass?
Yes! The balance of payments still applies for the Chinese for example......their current accounts are in surplus, but Kapital accounts in deficit. They spend their extra money on the U.S markets.
That is why, they are just as vulnerable as American tarders.
I wrote a big paper on this last year...I called it the Chinese trap. Both countries depend on each other. I will explain in detail later.
Remember that a large sum of the DOW is made up from foreign investments. Holding back & saving, is the same kind of panic that can cause a crash!
Airturd, you make excellent points! I agree with much of what you said...though I have different conclusions.
I see your a smart guy, but a Bear nevertheless..
I shall write more to counter....too busy now. Got Mid terms on advanced taxiation to study for.
Airturd...great post!
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Asking a pilot about what he thinks of Transport Canada, is like asking a fire hydrant what does he think about dogs.
Airturd, you make good points & you know what your talking about!
I agree that Greenspan kept the rates low for too long. & yes the Iranians are trying to persuade the other OPEC nations to switch to the Euro.....not a bad idea actualy!
but when the US implodes, the whole world will feel it to a greater or lesser extent.
I see no reason why the American economy should implode or deflate significantly in 2008/2009. Yes, the next few months will be difficult & there is no doubt about it.
Remember that in the summer of 2007, the federal reserve dropped the interest rates by 75 basis points. Just now in January, they dropped it by another 125 basis points.
It is a rule of thumb, that it takes 12-15 month for the market to adjust! So we will only start seeing the benefits of the fed cuts by late 2008/ early 2009.
To back my argument up......if you look at he U.S right now, corporate America is in good financial shape. Most fortune 500 companies are in good standing & are cash rich....Also they are progressively buying back their own shares.
Also, contrary to what the media has been saying, the American consumer is in an alright shape.
According to the latest Sprott Asset management report, the financial obligations ratio is ok within the American consumer. Financial obligations = total income / debt
Why? Because unemployment is at 5%! That's super low!
The worries for the next few months is......will the consumer retrench & save rather then spend? They will most probably retrench since their home values are going down.
It's economics 101. The consumer will spend more when their home value is up, despite savings. That's another reason why the U.S economy is slowing. Not just because people can't pay back their mortgages.
Another worry is........with the recent rate cuts, how high will inflation be by 2010?
The Canadian slowdown will probably be a year or two after the US, since (thankfully) we're a bit better positioned
Western Canada is. Eastern Canada's manufacturing sector is in for it again!
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Asking a pilot about what he thinks of Transport Canada, is like asking a fire hydrant what does he think about dogs.
Western Canada is. Eastern Canada's manufacturing sector is in for it again!
Energy related commodity sectors should fair okay, maybe, but that's always a big who knows.
So the Albertans who are tied to the dinosaurs (that's oil, not the over 50 set who still carry the emotional scars from the NEP, official Bilingualism, all the Bull Sh*t from Quebec, the homosexual left-wing agenda, abstract Senate Reform issues, Trudeau-mania, and life in general), should hopefully be okay.
I can tell you that BC's lumber industry is tanking, and it's really hurting the small lumber towns.
Construction is slowing down big time in Kelowna as the developers are becoming seriously spooked by what's happening in the US.
A lot of people like to think that Kelowna's outrageous real estate prices are a reflection of the fact "retirees want a nice place to live". Well, people said the same thing about Florida, and Florida is tanking hard.
The question is if Oil and Gas can carry the entire country.
I think that will be the deciding factor for Canada over the next few years.
ICEMAN, what economics class are you in? I don't really want to put a damper on your theories/opinions, but please, do a bit more digging into the stats. Visit Statscan, CMHC, US Dept of Labor websites. Look at the numbers, and specifically the trends.
For me, the most sobering Canadian financial event of last year was when the CEO of CMHC was in a segment on BNN (early-mid 2007 as I recall). I couldn't believe what I was hearing when she said something to the affect of " oh sure, we have no problems with 40 year mortgages, and interest only loans, actually we encourage them". We, as our fine friends to the south have already realized, are trending towards a massive debt/equity problem. Scary, IMHO.
Kelowna Pilot wrote:
So the Albertans who are tied to the dinosaurs (that's oil, not the over 50 set who still carry the emotional scars from the NEP, official Bilingualism, all the Bull Sh*t from Quebec, the homosexual left-wing agenda, abstract Senate Reform issues, Trudeau-mania, and life in general), should hopefully be okay.
"homosexual left wing agenda"? Been listening to anne coulter too much I'd say.
"homosexual left wing agenda"? Been listening to anne coulter
Is she on the CBC? Never heard of her, but then again,
I never listen (or watch) the CBC, either. You have to
pay for it, but you don't have to watch it, thank goodness.
BigB wrote:
For me, the most sobering Canadian financial event of last year was when the CEO of CMHC was in a segment on BNN (early-mid 2007 as I recall). I couldn't believe what I was hearing when she said something to the affect of " oh sure, we have no problems with 40 year mortgages, and interest only loans, actually we encourage them". We, as our fine friends to the south have already realized, are trending towards a massive debt/equity problem. Scary, IMHO.
The potential for these mortgage products to financially ruin people who don't know how to use them properly is scary.
The whole point of a 40 year mortgage and home equity line of credit, from a financial advisor's prospective, is to enable an investor to use their money more efficiently. Instead of having cash tied up paying for increasing value assets like rental properties that are costing them 6-7% interest, it could be invested to earn them 10-12% interest.
The banks should be more careful who they sell these products to. Not allowing the average person, who thinks its great that they now have a few extra hundred dollars to spend, to destroy themselves any more than they already have.
Of course the banks are just like any other business, they care only about making money and won't stop selling something that sells well. They don't give a rip about the livelihood of their customers.
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Marriage: So far so good. 1 year down, 25-life to go.
"homosexual left wing agenda"? Been listening to anne coulter too much I'd say.
No, Lorne Gunter's daily column from the Edmonton Journal...
Alberta's funny that way... the wealthier a place usually gets, the more liberal it usually becomes. Alberta is the opposite... it gets even more conservative. Go figure.
official Bilingualism, all the Bull Sh*t from Quebec
Hey man!!!! Cool it because your going to piss off alot of people....
I would like to remind you, that your attitude is the source of why many Quebecers are unhappy!
There are two sides of the story, I can fully understand why Franco Canada can feel isolated from the rest of the country.
I grew up in the French education system & am proud to be bilingual! Keep your opinions 3000 miles away, because we don't need that stuff. It's bad for the country!
what economics class are you in? I don't really want to put a damper on your theories/opinions, but please, do a bit more digging into the stats. Visit Statscan, CMHC, US Dept of Labor websites. Look at the numbers, and specifically the trends.
Stats are just stats if you don't understand what they mean. If you go back to the U.S dept of Labor website, your going to see that unemployment is near 5%! That's super low....
So on a financial obligation scale, the American consumer is an alright standing.
The problem is that, Americans finance everything! With low interest rates over the years, it was better to borrow then to spend your own money. Now it's causing a problem....thanks to Greenspan...
Wait till the end of 08....the rate cuts are going to kick in & your gonna start seeing improvement!
Why would you even consult Satscan? We are talking abou the U.S...
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Asking a pilot about what he thinks of Transport Canada, is like asking a fire hydrant what does he think about dogs.
Hey man!!!! Cool it because your going to piss off alot of people....
I would like to remind you, that your attitude is the source of why many Quebecers are unhappy!
There are two sides of the story, I can fully understand why Franco Canada can feel isolated from the rest of the country.
I grew up in the French education system & am proud to be bilingual! Keep your opinions 3000 miles away, because we don't need that stuff. It's bad for the country!
Sorry, I was actually making fun the angriest people on earth -the Albertans- not Quebecers. Câlice! You should read for nuance next time, eh?
Stats are just stats if you don't understand what they mean. If you go back to the U.S dept of Labor website, your going to see that unemployment is near 5%! That's super low....
So on a financial obligation scale, the American consumer is an alright standing.
Unemployment figures will be going up. We're just at the tip of the iceberg now.
We, as our fine friends to the south have already realized, are trending towards a massive debt/equity problem. Scary, IMHO.
