Small Aircraft Missing near YOW

[Kzanol]

The forecast weather for the arrival time was at worst to be 2sm and 900' (easily alternate minima for both 1 and 2 usable precision approaches). The actual weather at the time of the approach was 1,1/2 miles and 100'. Like WTF NavCanada? This happens so often it makes me not want to fly IFR anymore. I swear weather people are the biggest overpaid assholes. I mean if I was wrong in my job that often there wouldn't be any airplanes left in Canada.

[ahramin]

A Cardinal is a fine IFR platform. With good instruction and a modicum of skill ILS approaches to 200' should not be a problem for a 300 hour pilot. While it seems obvious to me that the weather conditions were far outside the envelope for the aircraft, I am sure the accident investigation will reveal several factors.

[Doc]

The forecast weather for the arrival time was at worst to be 2sm and 900' (easily alternate minima for both 1 and 2 usable precision approaches). The actual weather at the time of the approach was 1,1/2 miles and 100'. Like WTF NavCanada? This happens so often it makes me not want to fly IFR anymore. I swear weather people are the biggest overpaid assholes. I mean if I was wrong in my job that often there wouldn't be any airplanes left in Canada.

Truer words were never spoken.

[chipmunk]

The forecast weather for the arrival time was at worst to be 2sm and 900' (easily alternate minima for both 1 and 2 usable precision approaches). The actual weather at the time of the approach was 1,1/2 miles and 100'. Like WTF NavCanada? This happens so often it makes me not want to fly IFR anymore. I swear weather people are the biggest overpaid assholes. I mean if I was wrong in my job that often there wouldn't be any airplanes left in Canada.

Ever since they pulled the weather reporting folks out of Gatineau, the forecasts for Ottawa have become very unreliable. There is no local knowledge any more, and the computer models don't seem to take into account whether the river is mostly open or mostly frozen or what. There are some mornings where I *know* that the TAF is going to be amended drastically at any second. It's not the only place in Canada like this... sure they save a bunch of money but at what cost?!?! Frustrating.

My thoughts are with the families and friends of the pilots.

[grimey]

The forecast weather for the arrival time was at worst to be 2sm and 900' (easily alternate minima for both 1 and 2 usable precision approaches). The actual weather at the time of the approach was 1,1/2 miles and 100'. Like WTF NavCanada? This happens so often it makes me not want to fly IFR anymore. I swear weather people are the biggest overpaid assholes. I mean if I was wrong in my job that often there wouldn't be any airplanes left in Canada.

TAFs and GFAs are put out by Environment Canada. Some blame can be placed on Nav Can for the general changeover from manual to automated obs, closure or relocation of observation stations, etc, but the forecasts aren't done by Nav.

[Ranger75]

Ref: Has anyone seen any info on whether or not the ELT functioned?

The Canadian Mission Control Centre [CMCC] in Trenton was notified at 0014 UTC that the 406 MHz ELT registered to this aircraft had been detected by GOES at 0012 UTC [Geostationary satellite over the equator]. JRCC Trenton was notified by CMCC at 0017 UTC. An initial position provided by a LEOSAR [low earth orbiting satellite] appeared on the screen at JRCC around 0023 UTC, but it was way off. [Northeast of Mirabel] A subsequent satellite pass confirmed a more accurate position near the crash site at 0030 UTC. Just after 0112 UTC when JRCC was notified that the aircraft had been located, an updated SARSAT position very close to the site came in. The 406 transmitted continuously until turned off by TSB personnel. For reasons unknown, the 121.5 MHz homer did not appear to work. A CASARA member with a hand-held homer was on scene and heard nothing, nor did any overflying aircraft.

[Colonel Sanders]

an ILS to 200 feet should be duck soup, then?

Not duck soup, but my point was that it was something you can
train for, with a sufficiently sadistic instructor. Some aircraft and
some conditions are easier and more challenging than others, but
like playing the piano, the more you practice, the better you get.

I did my initial (group 3) instrument rating in a Maule, all those
years ago. In retrospect it was probably the worst IFR aircraft
I can think of. No, I take that back. Bill Carter (who hates my
guts for some odd reason - never had anything to do with him)
flew a Pitts S-2B IFR, which I think was actually more impressive
than any of his airshow flying.

I've instructed on many different Cardinals over the years, and
they're really not that bad an IFR aircraft.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Two low time pilots, only one of which was IFR rated. I have to wonder if this was a tragic example of how unprepared your average new "taught to pass the flight test" IFR rated pilot when it comes to appreciate the reality of flight planning in "bad" weather or actually fly in hardball IFR conditions.......

[Doc]

an ILS to 200 feet should be duck soup, then?

Not duck soup, but my point was that it was something you can
train for, with a sufficiently sadistic instructor. Some aircraft and
some conditions are easier and more challenging than others, but
like playing the piano, the more you practice, the better you get.

I did my initial (group 3) instrument rating in a Maule, all those
years ago. In retrospect it was probably the worst IFR aircraft
I can think of. No, I take that back. Bill Carter (who hates my
guts for some odd reason - never had anything to do with him)
flew a Pitts S-2B IFR, which I think was actually more impressive
than any of his airshow flying.

I've instructed on many different Cardinals over the years, and
they're really not that bad an IFR aircraft.

Looking at the Ottawa weather that night, the Cardinal is nowhere near the platform I'd choose for the mission. I realize you can file, and fly IFR in pretty much anything. Hell, I've done a couple of IFR trips in an Ercoupe. As far as having a "sufficiently sadistic" instructor goes, one who could teach these inexperienced pilots when NOT to fly may well have got the job done a bit better. Low time pilots need to be shown/taught/realize their limitations. Know when to say no. Methinks it's time to bring back the old Class 2 instrument rating. Remember those? If you have a PPL, you get a Class 2. Higher limits. Show me a down side. If you have a CPL, and you're using it, a Class 1, with CAP limits. Guys flying to higher limits as PPL's can still get a lot of utilization out of aircraft like the 177.
Thoughts?

[Big Pistons Forever]

Doc

The bottom line is todays typical FTU provided IFR training does not give you much preparation for actually flying IFR in the real world. Fortunately most new IFR pilots end up in the right hand seat and get on the job training by their Captain so that by the time they are in the drivers seat they have a pretty good idea of how to stay alive.

The problem comes when one of these newbies get hired by a PPL to "help" them fly their private aircraft in the goo, or a PPL gets his IFR rating and then immediately starts flying in real IFR conditions. I have trained a few PPL's who wanted the rating so they could fly their singles IFR. I told them I would only train them if they agreed I would train to real world proficiency , not just enough to pass the ride. We did a lot more XC then required and every flight started with an in depth discussion about , PDM, risk management and interpreting the weather in terms of the "so what" for this flight.

One of the most satisfying moments of my instructing career came when I got a phone call from one of my PPL IR graduates. He was at 11.5 on top of a stable status deck when his airplane shed 6 inches from one prop blade . The resulting vibration toppled both gyro's and and killed both NavComms. He was left with the turn coordinator and the ADF. Because of his good situational awareness he knew he was basically right over an airport. He did a partial panel descent with the aircraft very heavily vibrating and with the aid of the ADF he did a cloud break over the airport and safely landed. He very kindly attributed his success in a very bad situation to the extra real world training I had provided.

[ptc]

I knew one of the pilots and while inexperienced he was a very nice guy. My thoughts are with both the families who lost loved ones.

Fly safe people

[Colonel Sanders]

Looking at the Ottawa weather that night, the Cardinal is nowhere near the platform I'd choose

+1

Many pages back, I mentioned that I don't flight plan through forecast moderate icing in the C421, though of course I have descended through an unforecast (surprise!) layer of moderate icing for landing.

Even if these guys miraculously dodged airframe icing, remember they're flying a carbureted O-360 in cloud. Few people here are concerned with carb icing with temp +1 / dewpoint +1 but it would have my complete attention, esp after a power reduction after GS intercept (fixed gear).

http://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/civilaviation/p ... 8-6036.htm

All he had to do, was forget the carb heat, during a stressful diversion and different approach than he had briefed. Or possibly, even full carb heat didn't produce enough heat to stop the production of ice. With the Lycoming setup of the carb bolted to the oil sump you wouldn't think this likely, but ...

Also, no one ever leans the mixture after carb heat application. Everyone jams the mixture forward during pre-landing. Wrong, for a multitude of reasons. In severe carb icing conditions, it's full carb heat, and mixture leaned for max RPM for whatever throttle setting you have chosen. This is especially critical in a descent, where the engine isn't putting out much heat.

I might mention that the above technique, while techically correct (and on occasion, necessary) is completely opposite what is taught by every FTU in Canada.

[Canoehead]

I'm just curious what everyone thinks "icing conditions" are.

[Colonel Sanders]

what everyone thinks "icing conditions" are

Assuming this isn't a troll, I will bite.

Water (also known as di-hydrogen monoxide) freezes - that
is, it gets hard and forms ice - when it cools to zero degrees C
or 32 degrees F.

So anytime you are in cloud or visible moisture (eg VFR in
freezing rain) and the temp is lower than 0C, you could
potentially encounter "icing conditions", where ice accumulates
on the airframe.

Or, anytime the carburetor internals are less than 0C, it
can plug up with ice up, which I think is a more serious
problem than a little airframe icing. This can easily happen
when the OAT is +20C.

Practically speaking, when it gets cold enough in a cloud,
the water is already frozen, and it doesn't stick much to
the airframe. This is typical after a cold front passage in
wintertime. Biggest problem with snow is static.

Everyone freaks out about a half-inch of ice on the wing
and windshield. Yawn. What worries me is the weird stuff,
like fuel vents icing over. Like the crankcase breather tube
plugging up with ice and blowing your crank seal. Like'
the tailplane stalling on approach. etc.

If you've got enough power and you don't have a razor-thin
wing, the airplane will fly just fine with a half-inch of ice on the
wings and windshield. You will likely panic the first time that
happens to you in a non-deiced aircraft, but it will fly just fine.

[Expat]

It happened to me, at night, in a C-150. A short flight but encountered light freezing rain, I felt the plane slow down, checked the tires with a flashlight, to see how much ice was there. I could not see much through the windshield, but continued on, and I had to slip on final to see the runway. No fun there... Learned something...

[Doc]

It happened to me, at night, in a C-150. A short flight but encountered light freezing rain, I felt the plane slow down, checked the tires with a flashlight, to see how much ice was there. I could not see much through the windshield, but continued on, and I had to slip on final to see the runway. No fun there... Learned something...

There's a lesson here. DO NOT do this. Ever. A 150 in ANY ice......Do a 180 degree turn, RFN! That goes for ANY piston single! ANY ice is WAY too much ice!

[howard40]

They probably had the ATIS for ottawa and did not like it , Heck If I had lots of gas I would have tried Carp, as it may well have been 8 to 900 ft overcast with 3 miles and that(with no ice etc) is relatively for a rated pilot.It would have been worth a look.
I would be happier phoning customs about the wx below mins than shooting an ils to 100 ft.
The other thing is one might hold for say 10 mins, as the ceiling might pop up , specially when it is not forcast to be so low.
100 ft is plenty challenging in a cardinal if you are not flying much recently , and specifically practicing the ils approach to mins recently.
Darn
did anyone find the metars for the time period in question? say hour before and after?

[Hornblower]

deleted

[ozone]

Doc

The bottom line is todays typical FTU provided IFR training does not give you much preparation for actually flying IFR in the real world. Fortunately most new IFR pilots end up in the right hand seat and get on the job training by their Captain so that by the time they are in the drivers seat they have a pretty good idea of how to stay alive.

The problem comes when one of these newbies get hired by a PPL to "help" them fly their private aircraft in the goo, or a PPL gets his IFR rating and then immediately starts flying in real IFR conditions. I have trained a few PPL's who wanted the rating so they could fly their singles IFR. I told them I would only train them if they agreed I would train to real world proficiency , not just enough to pass the ride. We did a lot more XC then required and every flight started with an in depth discussion about , PDM, risk management and interpreting the weather in terms of the "so what" for this flight.

+1

In my opinion, actual IMC compared to under the hood IMC is a totally different ball game. Unfortunately all of my SIFR training was done under the hood in near perfect weather where I could cheat at times and use a bit of perifieral vision. My first time in actual IMC was definitely an eye opener to say the least! This was by myself with no instructor.

Not sure if this cardinal had an autopilot or not but definitely a tool to have for a new IMC driver. Removes a huge amount of concentration.

[Canoehead]

what everyone thinks "icing conditions" are

Assuming this isn't a troll, I will bite.

Water (also known as di-hydrogen monoxide) freezes - that
is, it gets hard and forms ice - when it cools to zero degrees C
or 32 degrees F.

So anytime you are in cloud or visible moisture (eg VFR in
freezing rain) and the temp is lower than 0C, you could
potentially encounter "icing conditions", where ice accumulates
on the airframe.

Or, anytime the carburetor internals are less than 0C, it
can plug up with ice up, which I think is a more serious
problem than a little airframe icing. This can easily happen
when the OAT is +20C.

Practically speaking, when it gets cold enough in a cloud,
the water is already frozen, and it doesn't stick much to
the airframe. This is typical after a cold front passage in
wintertime. Biggest problem with snow is static.

Everyone freaks out about a half-inch of ice on the wing
and windshield. Yawn. What worries me is the weird stuff,
like fuel vents icing over. Like the crankcase breather tube
plugging up with ice and blowing your crank seal. Like'
the tailplane stalling on approach. etc.

If you've got enough power and you don't have a razor-thin
wing, the airplane will fly just fine with a half-inch of ice on the
wings and windshield. You will likely panic the first time that
happens to you in a non-deiced aircraft, but it will fly just fine.

Nope. Not trollin' Colonel

I agree with most of what you say above, except to add that many manufacturers (I dunno about Cessna) consider potential icing conditions to exist when the SAT is +5 degrees C or below in the air, and even higher on the ground. If the surface temp was +1, I would imagine the temp aloft was lower or similar, barring any inversion. My fear in that airplane would be the carb ice, as you say, and also that propeller out front, that would lose efficiency quick in the right (or wrong) conditions.

The reason I asked my 'troll-like' question is to point out that icing symbols (or lack thereof) on a GFA can mean SFA!

[Old Dog Flying]

Like the Colonel, I've instructed in a number of Cardinals but I would never have wanted to try an instrument approach in icing conditions with that aircraft. It has a laminar flow airfoil and ANY ice would cause serious problems.

I've done a cloud breaking through icing layer in a Tiger Moth and it is the scarriest approach that I've ever done..no choice..no alternative..and very young with no brains.

[Colonel Sanders]

cloud breaking ... in a Tiger Moth

A very long time ago, it was recommended that you
intentionally spin a Tiger Moth down through a layer,
if you got stuck up on top. People here probably won't
believe it, but ...

The guy who did my initial class 4 instructor rating,
decades ago, spun a 150 right into the ground and
somehow survived.

[Expat]

cloud breaking ... in a Tiger Moth

A very long time ago, it was recommended that you
intentionally spin a Tiger Moth down through a layer,
if you got stuck up on top. People here probably won't
believe it, but ...

The guy who did my initial class 4 instructor rating,
decades ago, spun a 150 right into the ground and
somehow survived.

I heard about an airshow pilot who got stuck above a layer. He could not fly on instruments, so he spun her through the layer, to a safe landing.
I guess planes can spin through clouds...
Mine even spun at night.

[Expat]

It happened to me, at night, in a C-150. A short flight but encountered light freezing rain, I felt the plane slow down, checked the tires with a flashlight, to see how much ice was there. I could not see much through the windshield, but continued on, and I had to slip on final to see the runway. No fun there... Learned something...

There's a lesson here. DO NOT do this. Ever. A 150 in ANY ice......Do a 180 degree turn, RFN! That goes for ANY piston single! ANY ice is WAY too much ice!

I know what you are saying, but if you fly a lot, at night, in the north, these things will happen.

[Doc]

It happened to me, at night, in a C-150. A short flight but encountered light freezing rain, I felt the plane slow down, checked the tires with a flashlight, to see how much ice was there. I could not see much through the windshield, but continued on, and I had to slip on final to see the runway. No fun there... Learned something...

There's a lesson here. DO NOT do this. Ever. A 150 in ANY ice......Do a 180 degree turn, RFN! That goes for ANY piston single! ANY ice is WAY too much ice!

I know what you are saying, but if you fly a lot, at night, in the north, these things will happen.

These "things will happen......" ONCE, maybe. You have it happen twice, your head is up your ass.