Well ....I am an old guy, but I think my thoughts are actually quite valid.
Pilot shortage ...... I think there is one but I also think that you have to put it into perspective. The big airlines are rapidly running out of pilots, so they are sucking what they can get from the regional airlines. The Regionals are sucking what they can get from the Air Taxi carriers and so on.
What you must realize is that the airplane manufactures are slowly but persistently dealing the pilot out of the equation. With the new SMART airliners ..... the Airlines can hire and train a pilot with no experience other than his/her initial training. This is happening right now and will escalate dramatically in the neat future. Just look at the Chinese ....they are leading the way.
The Americans have been successfully flying UAV's for years. The F-35 is the last jet fighter that will have a pilot. I think the writing is on the wall.
The sad truth is that they really don't need pilots anymore. The only reason they are still hiring pilots is because the traveling public will not accept traveling in an airplane with out a pilot. At some point .... in the not too distant future, they probably will.
I travel to downtown Vancouver on the Sky train ...... there are no operators or attendants on this system. The traveling public have accepted this ..... and now it is perfectly normal. Trust me ....this will happen in the airline industry. The owner of Ryan Air is already trying to convince the CAA to allow him to operate their flights with only one pilot. One day ..... he will get that approval. And then he will ask to have the other one removed.
If you want to fly and really enjoy the freedom of flight ...... stay in the bush and fly on floats and skiis. Those airplanes will be the last to be pilotless.
Just my thoughts .......
Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage
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JungianJugular
- Rank 4
- Posts: 237
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 9:09 am
Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage
Hey old guy!
Interesting perspective! I think there are varying opinions on the subject of pilots becoming obsolete. My opinion is this will never happen. Human decision making and judgment cannot be genuinely replicated by a computer....yet?
I think with systems like transportation via rail, independence through automation is easily achievable because the factors involved in the process of going from point A to B are not as complicated or intricate as flying in the air.
As for your example regarding UAV's, there is still human control. I can see automation perhaps playing a larger role in the military for the purpose of not putting lives in harms
way. But then again, can technology truly achieve a level of human decision making and judgment?
Here's an interesting read:
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canadian-pilots-a ... s-1.621929
On a side note, what scares the shit out of me, and I mean REALLY scares me, is the idea of flying cars. People can't drive as it is.
My 100 rupees.
Interesting perspective! I think there are varying opinions on the subject of pilots becoming obsolete. My opinion is this will never happen. Human decision making and judgment cannot be genuinely replicated by a computer....yet?
I think with systems like transportation via rail, independence through automation is easily achievable because the factors involved in the process of going from point A to B are not as complicated or intricate as flying in the air.
As for your example regarding UAV's, there is still human control. I can see automation perhaps playing a larger role in the military for the purpose of not putting lives in harms
way. But then again, can technology truly achieve a level of human decision making and judgment?
Here's an interesting read:
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canadian-pilots-a ... s-1.621929
On a side note, what scares the shit out of me, and I mean REALLY scares me, is the idea of flying cars. People can't drive as it is.
My 100 rupees.
Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage
I see no pilot shortage in Canada in the years ahead. Asia, China, India are seeing solid growth. To give you small snapshot of growth in China, 2,000 new cars hit the streets of Shanghai per week. China is builiding 65 new airports between now and 2020. Take a look at the orders books from the manufacturers. Emirates, alone, has 90 A380's on the books. They're planning to hire another 400 guys in the next 12 months.
Factor in solid economies, retirement, air craft orders, the extrememly high cost of getting licenses for many parts of the world and you start seeing a problem. The cost of getting qualified to fly jets now sees airlines like BA and Finnair offering to train right off the street. It's not unuusal for airlines to have guys in the right seats of A340's with 1,000 hrs total time.
This is not a Canada thing and should not be measured against what we see in Canada. In Europe, it's not unusual to pay $300 to rent a 172, plus landing fees, plus $100 to shoot an instrument approach, plus club fees, plus insurance, plus, plus, plus. It's why I no longer fly.
IATA has 235 member airlines worldwide. Throw in low cost and domestic airlines and you have over 400 airlines. Throw in burgeoning economies and it's growing and is forecast to grow.
To me, you can either do nothing and panic. Or start paying attention, assessing the needs and ensuring adequate infrastrucxture is in place to accomodate. I am sure there will be economic peaks and valleys, SARS events, wars and other challenges to possibly disrupt this. I have confidence that the number of ecominsts at IATA, ICAO, Boeing, Airbbus and sched planning folk at airlines might know a thing or two about their networks and what's on the horizon.
As for this happening in Canada or the USA? nope.
Factor in solid economies, retirement, air craft orders, the extrememly high cost of getting licenses for many parts of the world and you start seeing a problem. The cost of getting qualified to fly jets now sees airlines like BA and Finnair offering to train right off the street. It's not unuusal for airlines to have guys in the right seats of A340's with 1,000 hrs total time.
This is not a Canada thing and should not be measured against what we see in Canada. In Europe, it's not unusual to pay $300 to rent a 172, plus landing fees, plus $100 to shoot an instrument approach, plus club fees, plus insurance, plus, plus, plus. It's why I no longer fly.
IATA has 235 member airlines worldwide. Throw in low cost and domestic airlines and you have over 400 airlines. Throw in burgeoning economies and it's growing and is forecast to grow.
To me, you can either do nothing and panic. Or start paying attention, assessing the needs and ensuring adequate infrastrucxture is in place to accomodate. I am sure there will be economic peaks and valleys, SARS events, wars and other challenges to possibly disrupt this. I have confidence that the number of ecominsts at IATA, ICAO, Boeing, Airbbus and sched planning folk at airlines might know a thing or two about their networks and what's on the horizon.
As for this happening in Canada or the USA? nope.
Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage
I am one of those guys that picked up and moved to the other side of the world. I have a lot of experience in Canadian aviation but there just wasn't really anywhere for me to go in Canadian aviation. Bit of a catch 22 wouldn't you say?
It's tough with a family to go from a solid 703/704 operator making a very heathly pay check to make the 'next step'.
What is the next step? It was either AC,WJ or Canadian north as far as I was concerned. I just couldnt turn down the offer of lifestyle compared to living a few very tough years (not as a young,fresh guy) in YVR, YYC, YYZ.
Asia will see healthy growth rates and passenger load factors will continue to be high unfortunately its the Canadian and US carriers are going to have a hard time competing for pilots after the guys who stick around and wait are hired.
How will Canada and the US attract 'qualified' pilots if Asian demand gets higher and higher?
It's tough with a family to go from a solid 703/704 operator making a very heathly pay check to make the 'next step'.
What is the next step? It was either AC,WJ or Canadian north as far as I was concerned. I just couldnt turn down the offer of lifestyle compared to living a few very tough years (not as a young,fresh guy) in YVR, YYC, YYZ.
Asia will see healthy growth rates and passenger load factors will continue to be high unfortunately its the Canadian and US carriers are going to have a hard time competing for pilots after the guys who stick around and wait are hired.
How will Canada and the US attract 'qualified' pilots if Asian demand gets higher and higher?
Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage
It would be interesting to know how many Canadian pilot's are working abroad. A friend of mine is left seat on the 777 at Emirates and he says there are close to 300 Canadian pilots there alone. Quite possible considering they have 3,200 pilots.
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flyingpickle
- Rank 0
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:00 am
Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage
Some of my friends are flying for different Canadian carriers, they all say the same thing: ”Companies in Canada are hiring in vast numbers…people getting hired right out of the school to fly right seat on turboprops and it is considered a norm.”
Just few years ago fresh pilots would have to do dispatch and/or ramp for years before they touch an airplane, looks like we don’t see this happening anymore , or at least it is not as bad as it used to be.
Correct me if I am wrong but looks like this is a sign of a lot of movement in the industry, created by a shortage of pilots in major airlines…
Just few years ago fresh pilots would have to do dispatch and/or ramp for years before they touch an airplane, looks like we don’t see this happening anymore , or at least it is not as bad as it used to be.
Correct me if I am wrong but looks like this is a sign of a lot of movement in the industry, created by a shortage of pilots in major airlines…
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traveller123
- Rank 2
- Posts: 88
- Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2010 11:16 am
Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage
flyingpickle you're right
the situation have improved a lot since two years but we can't talk about a pilot shortage in Canada
For me a pilot shortage in Canada would be : AC pay all your training (CPL/MEIR/Type Rating) and you get a right seat on the A330 with 250 hours. We're light years away from this.
the situation have improved a lot since two years but we can't talk about a pilot shortage in Canada
For me a pilot shortage in Canada would be : AC pay all your training (CPL/MEIR/Type Rating) and you get a right seat on the A330 with 250 hours. We're light years away from this.
Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage
You must be from Quebec.traveller123 wrote: For me a pilot shortage in Canada would be : AC pay all your training (CPL/MEIR/Type Rating) and you get a right seat on the A330 with 250 hours. We're light years away from this.
Re: Your Thoughts on The Pilot Shortage
You must be from Quebec
Don't need to be from Quebec.... BA is hiring zero time guys and putting them through an approved school just so they can meet projected vacancies... Lyon Ain Indoneasia, Cathay Pacific, Dragon Air, Even Qatar (if you happen to be of Qatari descent) all have various programs that will pay for all training.
