Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

[cncpc]

The live ATC recording is quite chilling. And also went on for much longer than I expected given the short duration of their flight.

Have you a link to that?

Thanks

[lostaviator]

I don't sorry. Go to liveatc and search the yvr arrival/departure feed. Search by time on liveatc. It was 15z-15:30z time frame I believe.

[cncpc]

I don't sorry. Go to liveatc and search the yvr arrival/departure feed. Search by time on liveatc. It was 15z-15:30z time frame I believe.

thanks

[CFM Symphony]

TSB is saying it was a sudden and uncontrolled descent.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.3032313

[phillyfan]

[b]The identities of the two pilots are not being released at the request of the families, police said[/b]
This kinda highlights one of the things that bug me. When people are looking for PM's about Crew ID.

[awitzke]

Publicly announcing their names is not the same as people in the industry wanting to know if their friends are alive.

[BE20 Driver]

Still looking to find out who the captain was. I haven't heard from the guy I know there and I'm getting a bad feeling.

If anyone can PM me with some crew info, I'd appreciate it.

[BE20 Driver]

This kinda highlights one of the things that bug me. When people are looking for PM's about Crew ID.

I can understand if the families do not want their name broadcast all over the media. I probably wouldn't want my family to release my name either.

That said, I only know one guy at that company. I have tried other more direct methods but have not heard from him since the incident. Asking around privately through PM's is the only way I can get some confirmation. Most people who are asking for PM's are likely in the same situation as I am and not looking to talk to the media.

I can not imagine how terrifying the last minute of their flight would have been. Tragic whom ever was onboard.

[boeingboy]

From CBC.....

Yearwood said all indications are the two pilots suddenly lost control of the aircraft, dropping from an altitude of 2,400 metres to about 900 metres — the height at which the wreckage was found — in less than a minute,

Carson Air SA226 plane
The crashed plane is a twin-engine SA-226 Metro II similar to this one. (Carson Air)

"The radar track showed a very steep descent," he said. "The crew did not call, declare an emergency or have any stress, which gives us an idea that whatever happened, happened suddenly. The radar track gives us information on how fast it was descending ... and that is consistent with uncontrolled flight."

[iflyforpie]

5000 feet per minute. I think airframe failure is the only possibility. Icing or mechanical failure wouldn't have been so abrupt.

[MrWings]

5000 feet per minute. I think airframe failure is the only possibility.

There's at least couple others that I can come up with. Not likely but possible.

[arctic_slim]

The identities of the two pilots are not being released at the request of the families, police said
This kinda highlights one of the things that bug me. When people are looking for PM's about Crew ID.

It may bug you but when I have a friend that may have been on board it bugs me not knowing if he is ok or not. It's not like im looking for a name so that I can tell the world, it's for my own piece of mind. And yes I found out later on, my good friend was on board that plane and I am devastated.

[7dirty7]

The identities of the two pilots are not being released at the request of the families, police said
This kinda highlights one of the things that bug me. When people are looking for PM's about Crew ID.

It may bug you but when I have a friend that may have been on board it bugs me not knowing if he is ok or not. It's not like im looking for a name so that I can tell the world, it's for my own piece of mind. And yes I found out later on, my good friend was on board that plane and I am devastated.

Sorry for your loss.

[Gear Jerker]

Does the Metro have control cables?

- Control cable fails, elevator full deflection nose down?

Condolences to all family and friends. Awful

[all_ramped_up]

Condolences to those families and friends affected by this loss.

Thoughts with the crew at Carson.

[Sulako]

I'm so sorry to hear of this Thoughts are with those affected by this awful event.

[CID]

5000 feet per minute. I think airframe failure is the only possibility. Icing or mechanical failure wouldn't have been so abrupt.

A few years back a FedEx Caravan basically fell out of the sky into a Winnipeg neighborhood due to icing.

http://aviation-safety.net/database/rec ... 20051006-0

Condolences to family and friends of the flight crew.

[Old fella]

Sincere condolences to family/friends/co-workers during this most difficult period due this tragic accident.

[sportingrifle]

I used to fly that exact route every morning in an MU-2 and with upslope winds, the ice could be just unimaginable over the North Shore mountains. Frequently we would get a clearance to climb to the BLI VOR and not turn north till above FL180 or so in order to top it. This sort of icing is really something that people flying their "de -iced" Cirrus, Mooney, etc need to consider.

Not really wanting to speculate on the accident cause, they are always way different or way more than complex than the initial speculation. What I will ay is that -5000 fpm is not unreasonable if the aircraft stalled due yo airframe icing and ten wouldn't be hard to do in those conditions.

All take care , the idea is an empty parking lot at the end of the day.

Sportingrifle

[boeingboy]

While icing can be bad - and Metro stalls are no picnic, I doubt it was icing. Metros are not all that bad in ice for starters.....and second the aircraft was climbing at 1500'/min and doing 240 kts when it dropped suddenly. You wouldn't have that kind of climb rate if you were picking up enough ice to drop you out of the sky.

[Unit 969]

Sounds like a pitch trim actuator failure to me.

[tbaylx]

Sounds like a pitch trim actuator failure to me.

Didn't Bearskin have a pitch actuator failure into Winnipeg several years ago? If I recall it got quite sporty, but they pitched nose up. It's certainly a plausible theory.

[PositiveRate27]

This stinks of mechanical/structural failure. I seriously hope the TSB digs real deep into this operation.

[cncpc]

Sounds like a pitch trim actuator failure to me.

I would think that such a failure would have resulted in a Mayday, no?

As for icing, that also doesn't stop squawk or crew ability to comm with ATC. I do think those facts point to something more catastrophic.

I remember looking at the flight aware record and thinking it seemed a little strange that the ROC was 1700 fpm at 140 knots, but still 1400 fpm at, what was it, 240 knots going through 7900. I know, at risk of awakening that winds guy, that increased tailwind might explain this, but...

Is it certain that the last squawk was at 7900, or is that just the last one Flight Aware recorded. It seems that TSB has different information to be able to come up with a 5000 foot rate of descent.

[goldeneagle]

This whole discussion brings up some questions, and comments. A lot of us are basing basic projections from what we see on the flightaware track, it shows 230 knots thru 7900, then when the next point is expected a minute later, there is nothing. BUT, flightaware doesn't get the raw data, they get what amounts to a sanitized and paced data feed. We are all sort of assuming things based on one radar point being there, and the next expected point is missing.

In the news, there is a statement from investigators regarding what amounts to an uncontrolled descent. To make that statement, they must have some pretty solid evidence regarding descent rates, more than just a projection from a single radar hit. So my question for anybody that has better knowledge, how many different radar sites would be sweeping over that area, and at what frequency ? Is it possible that the investigators have radar traces (with transponder info) at a much higher frequency, and they can actually see the descent in that data ? Can they glean altitude information from raw data lacking transponder returns ?

If you listen to the liveatc recording, there is another tidbit conspicuously missing that makes me wonder if the controllers had already seen descending info on radar hits. We can hear 66 acknowledge the climb to 16 thousand, nothing sounds out of place. Then a bit later, controller asks 44 to try company, and another aircraft to listen for an elt. If it was just a case of 'now you see it, now you dont', I would have expected a controller to be asking 66 to recycle the transponder, but that's not in the recording. No calls to 66, just ask somebody to listen for an elt, so they already had a really good idea of what was going on at that point.

In the press comments late yesterday, Yearwood states a high level of confidence they can piece together what happened even without recorders. I dont think they would express that level of confidence if they dont already have a lot of information we dont know about.