wondering if the mountains were visible from Springbank
The nearest are 25nm SW of the airport, and the metars not showing that much vis.
Skythings wrote: I just checked my cam footage for 2100 hrs last evening. The mountains were completely obscured in low clouds which is what I recalled. See the attached top picture showing July 28 at 2100 hrs …
third post / first page has pics off the camera “8nm SW of Springbank” looks like facing SW toward these closest mountains…
Edit:
IALBERTA226 Lac des Arcs wx-hist at 9:29pm (Wundermap) indicates heavy rain accum and totals starting in this accident area … station located at the base of the mountain in 2nd photo (north-facing) posted below
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Last edited by pdw on Fri Aug 11, 2023 6:18 am, edited 3 times in total.
To put some perspective on the location of this accident I found two pictures taken from the peak of the mountain where they crashed. This is not the accident site as far as I know.
The first picture is of the entrance into the mountains and is looking north-east and shows how the terrain literally goes from prairie flat lands to small foothills to serious mountain flying in about 15 miles. The twin lane Trans Canada Highway is visible just below and this picture shows just how narrow this valley actually is and how high the mountains are at this location. Springbank Airport would be to the far right off screen about 25nm.
The next image is also from the peak of Mnt. McGillivray and is looking north showing the river valley turning north towards Canmore. The Trans Canada Highway is also again visible. The right hand side of the picture starts about where the previous picture ended.
mcgillivray-009-1024x768.jpg (103.31 KiB) Viewed 1437 times
All things considered, it's not that tight of a valley. The idea of dicking around in the 'Rocks, at nightfall, in WX bordering on solid IFR... yeah that's a hard no.
Sure, the WX may have been "better" to the West; but you're going into unforgiving terrain on little more than a wing and a prayer (pun intended). Doing during daylight hours would be dicey at best, at night it's negligent in the extreme.
Piss poor PDM, it's a shame people died in such a preventable accident.
pelmet wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 7:48 pm
Do people actually fly general aviation aircraft through there intentionally at night?
I expect it depends on the night. And whether its a single or twin. Sky conditions, whether you can make 10500 westbound, moonlight...lot of factors.
If its a single, you are staking your life and your passengers on the reliability of the engine. If it calves, you're done. And your passengers. Unless you can make the Trans Canada.
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Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
pelmet wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 7:48 pm
Do people actually fly general aviation aircraft through there intentionally at night?
For the record it wasn't "night". Departed at 20:47 MDT (July 28). Official night (end of civil twilight) at CYBW was 22:11 MDT, and at CZAM was 22:28 MDT (21:28 PDT), and at crash site 22:14 MDT. Departed 01:41 before offical night at destination, and crashed approximately 1 hour before official night at crash site.
pelmet wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 7:48 pm
Do people actually fly general aviation aircraft through there intentionally at night?
For the record it wasn't "night". Departed at 20:47 MDT (July 28). Official night (end of civil twilight) at CYBW was 22:11 MDT, and at CZAM was 22:28 MDT (21:28 PDT), and at crash site 22:14 MDT. Departed 01:41 before offical night at destination, and crashed approximately 1 hour before official night at crash site.
Good to know. But it does get pretty dark in the time period before night, especially under cloud and in the shadow of mountains. How much time did he have left until landing.
pelmet wrote:How much time did he have left until landing.
Taking ETA hypothetically onward barring an earlier post’s point about precautionary turning to evade some cloud — ie where forced to evade cloud/ heavy rain (see IALBERTA226 wundermap wx july28 9:29pm near base of Mt McGillivary) —- then time remaining would have been a 138NM-based ETA , where deviating then could have further required alternative plans ie prior landing at CYGE or other (possibly including a 180)
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Last edited by pdw on Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
7ECA wrote: ↑Wed Aug 09, 2023 9:40 pm
All things considered, it's not that tight of a valley. The idea of dicking around in the 'Rocks, at nightfall, in WX bordering on solid IFR... yeah that's a hard no.
Sure, the WX may have been "better" to the West; but you're going into unforgiving terrain on little more than a wing and a prayer (pun intended). Doing during daylight hours would be dicey at best, at night it's negligent in the extreme.
Piss poor PDM, it's a shame people died in such a preventable accident.
For sure. Its not a narrow valley there. Its much worse to the west aways through the kicking horse pass. Makes me wonder if it was a LOC in IMC that would have occurred in the flatlands too.
These here are issued on July 28 5:25pm (17:25) local time (actually 282325UTC), which is 3hours and 22min before departure at 290247UTC (8:47pm/20:47 local)
In the Cador, the “last position” co-ordinates given are a few minutes after takeoff where the flight is on track westbound at 5800msl (where the elevation is 4200ft) which is quite a distance — 25to 30mi East — of where the tragedy is discovered.
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Last edited by pdw on Tue Aug 15, 2023 1:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.
pdw wrote: ↑Fri Aug 11, 2023 3:30 pm
These here are issued on July 28 5:25pm (17:25) local time (actually 282325UTC), which is 3hours and 22min before departure at 290247UTC (8:47pm/20:47 local)
Yeah my mistake, I added the 29th myself, but should have been the 28th. Good catch. This would have been the last forecast available before they departed.
“The Joint Rescue Coordination Centre (JRCC) Trenton informed Edmonton (EG) Area Control Centre (ACC) that they were searching for a privately registered Piper PA-32R-301 on a company notification from Calgary/Springbank, AB (CYBW) to Salmon Arm, BC (CZAM). The aircraft departed CYBW at 0247Z. Their last known position on radar was at 510940N 1144832W at 5800 feet. No NAV CANADA service provided other that the Tower and Class C terminal control services. Update: At 1515Z, the National Operations Centre (NOC) advised that the aircraft had been located approximately 31NM West of CYBW.”
This indicates there was not a wx brief with FSS at any point. Not sure how to upload a picture but the CADOR is in today’s national report.
Weather in that area wasn't great that evening. You can pan around this webcam on the date of the flight to see how low the clouds were in relation to the peaks. The webcam is about 15km or so from the impact site so it does give a pretty good idea of what the weather would have been like at the time.
At/above 5500ft the NE component was picking up between Kananaskis peaks and south-southwestward, originating out-of a central-AB HI’s southend-flow over AB mountains (IKANAN3 wundermap elev 5491ft NE 3-5mph A30.31/1027hPa 16C/59RH 9:15pm). From that point the cooler/denser air’s acceleration down-gradient southwest from Kananaskis into lower/southern BC elevations was also enabled by low pressure and high temps in place down there.
Southern BC lowgradient LO 1012hPa/A29.88 33C/25RH (wmap) and the AB HI 11-12C/95-97RH 1026hPa (wmap), its southend air pushing west from YBW, are shown on GFA issue “282325”. The marked HI’s across BC & AB are a drier expectation, except for a higher RH with this July day’s evapo-transpiration off maturing AB crops. The mid-AB HI’s Southeast-side was an ENE cold high-moisture flow underpinning warmer high-moisture air “moving in from southeast”, wedging it steeper ‘into AB foothills/AB Mts’ which helped produce the poorer weather encountered 20min into the flight.
(Edit: the final report is out .. the accident happened enroute yet appears no attempt at turnaround as first thought)
