Snow Lake Crash Nov18 (Speculation Thread)

[stef]

Not the first time a contaminated heavy Caravan stalled on flap retraction. Very sad.

[pdw]

"Contaminated" usually means it's cold and moist, and "heavy" requires more engine power. (TSB can find out if ice or not, since it stayed cold all day, no melting until late.)

They're showing the bent prop with an explanation that the turbine was indeed making power. Yet how much power was this particular engine/prop combo capable of producing under these conditions, ... against what was needed to allow this particular load to reach its safe flying speed under present rwy conditions ?

If contamination is not noticed or in progress while taxiing, that (flap) problem may also be in the category of allowing flap retraction while still too slow in climb ... when under those conditions very humid and cold. A 208 accident report from Abbottsford BC @ 9:17 AM on Dec 28 1999 describes this flap issue very well, but not the same circumstances by far (in those days knew that ice is there or didn't check).

[ReserveTank]

If contamination is not noticed or in progress while taxiing, ...

I'm no Van driver, but isn't there a specific directive on the Caravan that the wings must be touched with the hand for verification of contamination?

[pdw]

Exactly, so can't imagine ice-catch present prior to taxiing to position rwy21; but you've made a point. 208B pilots have said that it's not as simple as it sounds to make the extra stop before TKOF to climb out and check given the height of the wing and the time it takes to restart the engine, ... so maybe might not always do it unless in their experience are expecting something there ?

I'm fairly certain the TSB would make that their first priority to check in the immediate aftermath and report that sort of thing early. This could be eligible under that policy (check the TSB website for investigation protocol), where they inform of any immediate threat to safety well in advance of a final report. Icing detection and safety requires a renewed effort every year to promote, thus makes it extremely important to divulge that accident type immediately (esp now in fall-time) to prevent any threat of second-guessing 'if it is or it isn't' (no doubt about zero ice/frost tolerance on TKOF). Any 'uncertainty' to do with ground icing/frosting can be seen as a threat all by itself....

[Doc]

Not the first time a contaminated heavy Caravan stalled on flap retraction. Very sad.

You would make a comment like that based on exactly WHAT? Now, we have it all iced up, and heavy? I'm going out on a limb here to state I have MORE Caravan time than you do, stef. Have you ever actually even been to an airport?


pdw wrote:
If contamination is not noticed or in progress while taxiing, ...

RserveTank wrote....
I'm no Van driver, but isn't there a specific directive on the Caravan that the wings must be touched with the hand for verification of contamination?

You're correct...you're "no Van driver" That's called a "tactile" inspection. Not a bad idea in smaller aircraft where you actually can touch a surface.

pdw...."
If contamination is not noticed or in progress while taxiing, that (flap) problem may also be in the category of allowing flap retraction while still too slow in climb ...
when under those conditions very humid and cold."

If there's enough contamination to bring down an airplane, it would be very hard not to "notice" it. Usually, right in front of you face.....windshield, struts, gear legs,....but then, you don't fly, do you?

Oh yah, the temperature and moisture flap retract prevention module....We'll be sure to get right o that, there, pdw

Love to have some idea as the the total experience level of stef and pdw?

[stef]

Based on a delay due to freezing fog with seven drillers and gear and fuel to Winnipeg. Pure speculation. Guess we'll have to wait to see what TSB comes up with.

[mbav8r]

From Winnipeg Free Press

There’s no cause yet for the Snow Lake plane crash Nov. 18 that killed pilot Mark Gogal and injured seven passengers.

But neither has anything been ruled out, Transportation Safety Board of Canada Regional Manager Peter Hildebrand said this afternoon.

The Cessna 208 owned by Gogal Air Services successfully took off and flew about a kilometre, said Hildebrand. "It descended at a steep angle -- it hit the ground and stopped in 50 feet."
Hildebrand said that the TSBC has made several recommendations over the years for more equipment on small aircraft, including flight data recorders, none of which Transport Canada has adopted.

He said that 95 per cent of air accidents in the past decade in Canada involved planes of nine seats or fewer, and involved 93 per cent of the air fatalities in the country.

This link has a photo of the propeller, the TSB stated the engine was producing power at the time of the crash.
http://www.globalwinnipeg.com/investiga ... story.html

[GUMPS]

Not the first time a contaminated heavy Caravan stalled on flap retraction. Very sad.

You would make a comment like that based on exactly WHAT? Now, we have it all iced up, and heavy? I'm going out on a limb here to state I have MORE Caravan time than you do, stef. Have you ever actually even been to an airport?


pdw wrote:
If contamination is not noticed or in progress while taxiing, ...

RserveTank wrote....
I'm no Van driver, but isn't there a specific directive on the Caravan that the wings must be touched with the hand for verification of contamination?

You're correct...you're "no Van driver" That's called a "tactile" inspection. Not a bad idea in smaller aircraft where you actually can touch a surface.

pdw...."
If contamination is not noticed or in progress while taxiing, that (flap) problem may also be in the category of allowing flap retraction while still too slow in climb ...
when under those conditions very humid and cold."

If there's enough contamination to bring down an airplane, it would be very hard not to "notice" it. Usually, right in front of you face.....windshield, struts, gear legs,....but then, you don't fly, do you?

Oh yah, the temperature and moisture flap retract prevention module....We'll be sure to get right o that, there, pdw

Love to have some idea as the the total experience level of stef and pdw?

Thank you for saving me the time to write out essentially the same comments.
pdw your posts are always interesting but leave me banging my head against the table wondering if you've ever left the ground.

[Colonel Sanders]

95 per cent of air accidents in the past decade in Canada involved planes of nine seats or fewer, and involved 93 per cent of the air fatalities in the country

Ok, that's it then - I'm going to install 8 more seats
in my (two seat) Pitts, and then they should never
crash!

God, I love statistics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlatio ... _causation

Example 3

As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases sharply.
Therefore, ice cream consumption causes drowning.

The aforementioned example fails to recognize the importance of time and temperature in relationship to ice cream sales. Ice cream is sold during the hot summer months at a much greater rate than during colder times, and it is during these hot summer months that people are more likely to engage in activities involving water, such as swimming. The increased drowning deaths are simply caused by more exposure to water-based activities, not ice cream. The stated conclusion is false.

I can't possibly be the only person in Canada that
opines that the Canadian taxpayer gets a very poor
return.

[CFR]

95 per cent of air accidents in the past decade in Canada involved planes of nine seats or fewer, and involved 93 per cent of the air fatalities in the country

Ok, that's it then - I'm going to install 8 more seats
in my (two seat) Pitts, and then they should never
crash!

God, I love statistics...

That's why everyone should carry a bomb with them when they fly. The chances of there being a bomb on a plane are pretty good, but two bombs are highly unlikely!!!

Had a few lectures on statistics during a course at McMaster and found it amazing that apparently everyone is an expert in interpretation in this highly specialized field.

PS a good statistical analysis acounts for many error generating inputs such as the correlation between temperature, ice cream and drownings. In epidemiology they are called confounders.

[Doc]

Based on a delay due to freezing fog with seven drillers and gear and fuel to Winnipeg. Pure speculation. Guess we'll have to wait to see what TSB comes up with.

Way behind you. I'm still trying to figure out if they had an IFR OC?

[anonymity]

Did I miss something or were all the pilots of the 9 seats or fewer fatal accidents eating icecream in the winter while wearing sandals?
Pretty hard to argue that 95% of the past decades accidents had 9 or less seats, unless you think that maybe they're misleading us and 88% of those were 705 category, configured with 9 seat or less. Idiot

[yukon bound]

day vfr only..........any idea if the chieftan climbed on top?

[jschnurr]

Condolences to the pilot and his family.

As previously alluded to, they are a Day VFR operation.
http://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/Saf-Sec-Sur/2/o ... &c_id=4477

[Edo]

Based on a delay due to freezing fog with seven drillers and gear and fuel to Winnipeg. Pure speculation. Guess we'll have to wait to see what TSB comes up with.

The passengers were not drillers. They are mine workers on a set rotation, usually have just a carry on bag not a gigantic hockey bag filled with everything thy own.

[lilflyboy262]

The passengers all had connecting flights. Apparently there was an urgency to get them out on time. And the plane had been sitting outside all day.

At least there were survivors in this accident so the report should be pretty quick to come out.

[stef]

...should be, but won't be. 95% of all accident reports are 65% too slow to come out.

[pdw]

Rwy 21 at Snow Lake is 209M, with a 4.2E variation is 213.2 degrees True.

SPECI for CYFO at 1521 ZULU (9:21 AM local) is 12006KTS. Left crosswind for the TKOF would be nearing perpendicular if wind is similar direction upwind at Snow Lake. On this day, Cold Air Advection from southeast strengthens 'backing and increasing' wind with height. The pressure gradient force from the east is very strong on this morning. TKOF is southwest, towards low pressure (the trough looks tilted in to that area from the west). Anticipated increase in climb-rate out of ground-effect is suddenly a lot weaker than usual.

[GUMPS]

Rwy 21 at Snow Lake is 209M, with a 4.2E variation is 213.2 degrees True.

SPECI for CYFO at 1521 ZULU (9:21 AM local) is 12006KTS. Left crosswind for the TKOF would be nearing perpendicular if wind is similar direction upwind at Snow Lake. On this day, Cold Air Advection from southeast strengthens 'backing and increasing' wind with height. The pressure gradient force from the east is very strong on this morning. TKOF is southwest, towards low pressure (the trough looks tilted in to that area from the west). Anticipated increase in climb-rate out of ground-effect is suddenly a lot weaker than usual.

Oh, ok.

[pdw]

pdw your posts are always interesting but leave me banging my head against the table wondering if you've ever left the ground.

Years after my own accident experience the weather info for that day became available on the Internet. During that time of study the Pellee Island Caravan accident occurred (close to home) and then discovered the databases of previous accidents. I learned to fly on rainy days, 1000's of TFOFs/landings, often marginal VFR, and lots of days with frost to clear. I too was banging my head against the table ... just trying to find a way to explain the very profile that seemed obviously to be affecting some of the Caravans as echoed in the (mostly) NTSB reports. Here you have marginal VFR but improving (looking manageable) for the course southeast of the departure airport and no way to prove it well in aftermath, ... but in the process of that arguement might also miss the real cause of the accident ?

At the caravan safety seminars the organizers did their best to show what to watch for when it comes to icing, but those in attendance were mainly there to refresh and to stay current with all the concerns of winter flying. I believe they are still going on every year.

[jschnurr]

I've been flying for 10 years, and have yet to do "1000's of TFOFs/landings". You must be one remarkable student.

208B pilots have said that it's not as simple as it sounds to make the extra stop before TKOF to climb out and check given the height of the wing and the time it takes to restart the engine

You have no concept of turbine engine cycles either, do you?

May not be an issue here, but I'd like to remind guys to remember to wear their shoulder straps. Too many people have been killed in survivable accidents due to a bump on the head.

I must say that I'm guilty of not always wearing the shoulder strap (PA31). I find that it pulls too high on my neck and is uncomfortable, though I'm trying to use it more now.

[Heliian]

Do we know how long they've been operating the 208 or the PIC's time on type?

[jschnurr]

From the Civil Aircraft Registry for GAGP:
Owner Registered Since: 2011-02-25
Latest Certificate of Registration Issued: 2011-02-25

[flyinthebug]

Rwy 21 at Snow Lake is 209M, with a 4.2E variation is 213.2 degrees True.

SPECI for CYFO at 1521 ZULU (9:21 AM local) is 12006KTS. Left crosswind for the TKOF would be nearing perpendicular if wind is similar direction upwind at Snow Lake. On this day, Cold Air Advection from southeast strengthens 'backing and increasing' wind with height. The pressure gradient force from the east is very strong on this morning. TKOF is southwest, towards low pressure (the trough looks tilted in to that area from the west). Anticipated increase in climb-rate out of ground-effect is suddenly a lot weaker than usual.

Seriously, go sit in the corner while the grown ups talk.

OR better yet, just shut up.

[cncpc]

Rwy 21 at Snow Lake is 209M, with a 4.2E variation is 213.2 degrees True.

SPECI for CYFO at 1521 ZULU (9:21 AM local) is 12006KTS. Left crosswind for the TKOF would be nearing perpendicular if wind is similar direction upwind at Snow Lake. On this day, Cold Air Advection from southeast strengthens 'backing and increasing' wind with height. The pressure gradient force from the east is very strong on this morning. TKOF is southwest, towards low pressure (the trough looks tilted in to that area from the west). Anticipated increase in climb-rate out of ground-effect is suddenly a lot weaker than usual.

Seriously, go sit in the corner while the grown ups talk.

OR better yet, just shut up.

+1