Depressed demand after travel restrictions are lifted, the desire for physical distancing until a vaccine is created are factors that don’t provide a path where Transat can achieve the load factors and economies of scale to make a go of it on its own. JME himself stated as recently as last year the landscape has changed, the tour operator makes no money, only the hotel and resorts make money. Moreover Transat has no feeder network, alliance or rewards program which isolates itself and puts the airline at a severe disadvantage to make a comeback and to compete for a shrunken sked service or leisure market. Be careful for what you wish for.
727, Canada is full of immigrants and I can tell you that I know many people that are just waiting for the travel restrictions to be lifted to book a flight right away to Europe to see their family (or vice versa); at the cheapest price. If you think that people will wait for a vaccine and continue to follow the physical distancing in the upcoming months, you’re dreaming. I was walking in a park today full of people walking/running pretty close to each other, and without any mask on their face; like if the covid never happened.
Air Canada won’t sell business travel anytime soon and Transat won’t sell packages in resorts, their strength will be family/friends travel point to point at the cheapest price, which AC cannot afford because of a huge cost structure.
Europe is slowly starting to lift the travel restrictions, I hope Transat will get prepared accordingly.
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Last edited by FL320 on Tue May 05, 2020 3:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
I’m with FL320 on this one... I mean you can see it for yourself.... everyone is out and about, parks are full, there’s actually traffic on the roads etc. More and more, people aren’t caring as much. And it will ramp up faster and faster as more businesses are allowed to open.
I thought you worked for Transat Fl320 because if you did you would know that the operation makes little if any profit on airfare only sales. It’s the tour or cruise package and hotel commissions that generates the profit for the company and has done so for the last 30 years. In case you missed the presentations on your initial coarse I will remind you what is said to all new pilot indoctrination classes: Transat is not an airline it is a vertically integrated TOUR OPERATOR!!! that has a fleet of aircraft. This was the exact same model Thomas Cook used and we all saw how that turned out in the end. If your counting on immigrants returning home to the motherland to visit family to fill the planes and support Transat through this all I have to say is wow!!! I have news for you, flights to Rome, Venice, Barcelona, Madrid, Nice, Paris, London etc are not full of Vito Scaramucci’s, Julio Montoya’s, Phillipe Savard’s and John Smith’s returning to the homeland; they are full of tourists and by all accounts there are people way above our pay grade and in positions of power to make decisions that know this industry better that a bunch of pilots that obviously see something very different then what you see. Ergo fleet grounded.
If your theory gives you solace and peace of mind that all will be well and Transat can and should go it alone; well God bless you. However i will leave you with this thought to ponder. If the CEO who is a proud Québécois who built that company up from a little local travel agency selling holiday packages to Acapulco to an international tour operator decides to push the sell button way before this pandemic even was on anyone’s radar then he probably knows more than you on why he thinks they were already in trouble and it was time to cash our rather than play out a losing hand.
I thought you worked for Transat Fl320 because if you did you would know that the operation makes little if any profit on airfare only sales. It’s the tour or cruise package and hotel commissions that generates the profit for the company and has done so for the last 30 years. In case you missed the presentations on your initial coarse I will remind you what is said to all new pilot indoctrination classes: Transat is not an airline it is a vertically integrated TOUR OPERATOR!!! that has a fleet of aircraft. This was the exact same model Thomas Cook used and we all saw how that turned out in the end.
727driver,
Transat evolved during the last years; especially thanks to the new Chief operating officer; it now looks more like an airline than a tour operator.
tailgunner wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 8:19 am
160tonoaha,
I have serious doubts about whether you fly for AC. None of my experiences line up with yours at all. You have simply repeated oft said claims about the FD attitude, and conversations on AC’s FD’s. None of it happens to any type of degree that you claim.
I’ll tell you what, why don’t you give us the years of service and the equipment that the 5th pilot from the top of the April retirement bulletin flew. No names.
I’m sure you have the list, and can provide that within a few moments.
Cheers.
Was it DB?
I agree there is some real pieces of work at AC. That said some of the coolest people I ever met work at AC. There's such a range. You never know what you're going to get.
LOL... I had to check! I think he was on the other retirement bulletin though. FOD!
4th from top in April was a different DB who was a gentleman to fly with, lots of great stories, and excelled at the layover... Also a source for a few of my stories.
Lots of great times here with good people. And many more to come after we pull this wreck out the other side of this and get it running again.
An increasing number of analysts today are taking the interesting position that as a whole, leisure travel will rebound more in proportion to domestic flying.
Corporate factors at play here is the new normal where some of the current stay-at-home workers will stay there, and a permanent increase in videoconferencing as opposed to meetings.
I've had a virtual margarita, it's no good.
Of course there's the gross economic impacts of the recession affecting leisure overall, but an interesting perspective nonetheless.
DanWEC wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 7:54 am
An increasing number of analysts today are taking the interesting position that as a whole, leisure travel will rebound more in proportion to domestic flying.
Corporate factors at play here is the new normal where some of the current stay-at-home workers will stay there, and a permanent increase in videoconferencing as opposed to meetings.
I've had a virtual margarita, it's no good.
Of course there's the gross economic impacts of the recession affecting leisure overall, but an interesting perspective nonetheless.
That would be terrific! AC could spool up their very successful Rouge operation again in response to increased demand, thus foregoing the additional expense of integrating a struggling leisure only carrier.
This would be a benefit for all parties, AC employees would enjoy greater job security, the market would be happy as AC could preserve vital cash which we could use for the restart and offer exceptional deals to entice passengers back. Win Win! Let’s go leisure market!
DanWEC wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 7:54 am
An increasing number of analysts today are taking the interesting position that as a whole, leisure travel will rebound more in proportion to domestic flying.
Who? Do you have any links?
Consensus among carriers in the US and at AC is expecting domestic recovery first.
DanWEC wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 7:54 am
An increasing number of analysts today are taking the interesting position that as a whole, leisure travel will rebound more in proportion to domestic flying.
Who? Do you have any links?
Consensus among carriers in the US and at AC is expecting domestic recovery first.
Here is one from the HBR. I was reading another seperate one this morning that echoed the same sentiments but can't find it as quickly. Desjardins rings a bell. I'll post it if I find it later back at my desk.
Should be mentioned that there is a difference between "recover first" and "less affected".... so might be differing results depending on how forward-looking.
One factor that will hamper anything beyond domestic travel is medical insurance that does not exclude Covid. If it remains excluded it will put a real damper into travel except for those who are young or risk takers. If you take the 50 plus out of the travel equation it will hurt.
Me personally, I won’t be leaving the country for leisure until I can purchase insurance. I think this winter is a bit optimistic on that front as concerns of a second wave weigh on the minds of insurance companies. Or the insurance could be prohibitively expensive.
DanWEC wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 7:54 am
An increasing number of analysts today are taking the interesting position that as a whole, leisure travel will rebound more in proportion to domestic flying.
Who? Do you have any links?
Consensus among carriers in the US and at AC is expecting domestic recovery first.
You're right, if I'm not mistaking, even CR said : domestic, leisure and then business. Even if there is a lot of domestic and leisure travel, I think most of the revenue at AC is from businesses. So will the recovery be longer for business carrier like AC than leisure carrier like AT? We can all speculate, but nobody really knows for sure...
On another topic, do you guys know any examples of a buyer wanting to acquire a competitor then, after learning all their secrets, having some control over the major decisions and the shareholders approving the price they decided it wasn't worth it and pulled out of the deal? If there is any, how did it end up for the company that almost got bought? That's a major concern for me if the deal doesn't go through, AC now knows all our strengths and weaknesses and would have a unfair advantage if the two companies continue to compete separately.
tintin42 wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 10:16 am
....if I'm not mistaking, even CR said : domestic, leisure and then business. Even if there is a lot of domestic and leisure travel, I think most of the revenue at AC is from businesses. So will the recovery be longer for business carrier like AC than leisure carrier like AT? We can all speculate, but nobody really knows for sure...
What CR said was - first domestic. Then trans border. Then international. Those are ‘markets’.
He also said that first travellers would be VFR - visiting friends and relatives. He seemed to be leaning towards family travel as first recovery. Other travel purposes would be either leisure or business. Those would be ‘segments’ of markets.
And as he correctly pointed out, it is not just demand affecting passenger travel recovery. It is how long jurisdictions impose entry/exit restrictions.
He is guessing just like everybody else. But the AC plan will implementing will be based on his guesses.
That would be terrific! AC could spool up their very successful Rouge operation again in response to increased demand, thus foregoing the additional expense of integrating a struggling leisure only carrier.
This would be a benefit for all parties, AC employees would enjoy greater job security, the market would be happy as AC could preserve vital cash which we could use for the restart and offer exceptional deals to entice passengers back. Win Win! Let’s go leisure market!
[/quote]
Im sure that will work out just well for everyone involved. Instead of 1 large merged company working together for the cumbs, everyone can fight for the crumbs separately and everyone can lose. But hey you're couple seniority points are alot more important
Sharklasers wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 10:31 am
Yes AC would pay 20-40 million for a peak up the skirt assuming they use their army of lawyers to break up the deal.
Would it be worth 200, 300, maybe even 400 million when the TRZ shareholder sue AC for damages plus the 40 mill to walk away from the deal. What about the corporate damage caused by the ensuing lawsuit? How much is that worth
I am curious as to you what your seniority is? The more senior you are the less you worry.... Especially in post covid times. Although sharklasers was harsh, i completely agree.
I don't think tonah works at AC. Just pretender with a hate on.
Altiplano, you're incorrect again. I was at some pretty successful world brands before coming home to AC. I am a fairly recent new hire. For what it's worth, I was lucky enough to have offers from both transat and ac around the same time. I elected to go with AC. 2019 hire. I was PFO'd years ago from AC and decided to make a go of it as an ex-pat. Made my money and came home. In hindsight, I should've probably taken the PFO from AC years ago as a hint that I'm not a good fit. The wife and I are talking about leaving as soon as the dust settles again. You know what one of many contributing factors are? Experiencing the attitudes of people like altiplano on a regular basis. Not just at AC, but in Canada as a whole. There exists a very hypocritical, victimized, defensive, passive-aggressive attitude here. Probably cause the population keeps getting screwed over, and have no proper outlet to show their anger. Guess it makes sense that AC pilots would be representing the same when flying the flag since it's becoming the country's identity more and more. It definitely isn't like this with everyone. And some AC guys are phenomenal too. But seriously, a lot of ass holes in the mix as well. My only piece of advice for transat guys, don't let this shit culture change what you guys are bringing. Hopefully, I get the chance to experience it, but I think we probably won't cross paths. Working among colleagues like altiplano, shark, etc, makes one feel like a homeless man standing in line, grasping at straws for the last cup of soup. These types of people are definitely not leaders by example. And they make atrocious people to fly with. All they talk about are contracts, money, pension, transat, and how they didn't get their schedule the way they bid it. I'll leave you with this, I was at one of the M3 before coming home, and although we worked like dogs, there didn't exist this level of ignorance among us. Our brand and world recognition were better as well. Unlike AC, we actually had a reason to be proud of our jobs. Call me a hater all you want, but I bring perspective from working at some classy outfits. And as I've found very quickly, AC definitely isn't one of them. Sorry altiplano for exposing both of our horrible choices in careers At least I have an out, do you? It's starting to make sense why guys like you you're so defensive
Get out of Toronto. The animosity between people and social angst is a direct result of the "cultural mosaic".
Sharklasers wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 10:31 am
Yes AC would pay 20-40 million for a peak up the skirt assuming they use their army of lawyers to break up the deal.
Yes but that's not a lot of money to take down a competitor. AC is losing that every 2 days. They didn't only had a peak, they also had some control. They asked Transat to stop the hotel project, every expense over a certain amount had to be approved (ac even had to approve APU changes). We even had delay on our CBA extension because it had to be approved by AC.
I don't think AC had bad intentions with the deal, but imagine a company that has bad intentions. They pretend to be interested in buying, learn everything about their competitors and even have some control over them, later they pull out the deal and are in a easy position to destroy the company they "wanted" to buy. Again I don't think that was AC's plan, but I hope there is something more than 40 millions to prevent company from doing that.
Again, does anyone know a company that was in a position similar to Transat, the buyer pullout and the company survived?
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Last edited by tintin42 on Tue May 05, 2020 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
Sharklasers wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 10:31 am
Yes AC would pay 20-40 million for a peak up the skirt assuming they use their army of lawyers to break up the deal.
AT will most probably react like Embraer:
« The deal calls for a $100 million breakup fee but Embraer is poised to sue Boeing for significantly more, alleging that the long period of uncertainty has hampered sales of its E2 jets.
It said it would pursue “all remedies” against Boeing, without elaborating. »
You know it would cost way way more than 40 millions to AC...
All that makes perfect sense re: Ramping up markets at AC.
I mentioned in my post but maybe it wasn't clear. These analysts weren't talking about the chronology of returning markets from day zero, but more how market proportions will change once the smoke clears in the future.
Corporate best practices in the new normal will almost undoubtedly include less office attendance and less domestic business travel for the day-to-day, regardless of the economy.
One the other hand, there is no virtual leisure. (Ha, I should watch my mouth there.)
Leisure will only be affected by overall economic conditions, and in the short-medium term, the hangover conditions of travelling after covid. As was mentioned, insurance, quarantine requirements, etc.
The projections have nothing to do with the short term except for maybe preparedness. Just an interesting perspective I hadn't thought of.
Sharklasers wrote: ↑Tue May 05, 2020 10:31 am
Yes AC would pay 20-40 million for a peak up the skirt assuming they use their army of lawyers to break up the deal.
AT will most probably react like Embraer:
« The deal calls for a $100 million breakup fee but Embraer is poised to sue Boeing for significantly more, alleging that the long period of uncertainty has hampered sales of its E2 jets.
It said it would pursue “all remedies” against Boeing, without elaborating. »
You know it would cost way way more than 40 millions to AC...
I dont 'know' anything of the sort and neither do you. One thing we could agree on is that it will be tied up in the court and appeal system for the better part of a decade if Transat decides to walk that road.
There are numerous outs in the contract aside from the MAE clause related to TRZ solvency and finance obligations which will be difficult to meet if this drags on much longer. This is likely why you were so aggressive in cost cutting at the start of this. Transat is extremely limited in its options for recapitalization and access to credit facilities if it doesnt want to void the deal.
A decade is a long time for a company teetering on the brink of insolvency and maybe your creditors will settle for pennies on the dollar. Maybe AC enters CCAA in that time and *poof* no money for TRZ.
One thing that was said yesterday and repeated today is that AC will put the interests of their customers, employees and shareholders first.
Don't worry FL320, the purchase will go through since they've always wanted to replace AC Vacations with TS, and they'll simply cleave out all the TS pilots.
Let's play some golf after our first pairing in Ho Chi Minh! lol
At least I have an out, do you? It's starting to make sense why guys like you you're so defensive 
