Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
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Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Flying from Lethbridge to Kamloops. Last seen when stopped for fuel at Cranbrook.
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news ... n-kamloops
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news ... n-kamloops
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Heard a SAR chopper broadcasting on 21.5 yesterday was hoping for better news than this. Hope they are ok just waiting to be found.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.4154956
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.4154956
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Can anybody do that weather look back for the route?mato wrote:Heard a SAR chopper broadcasting on 21.5 yesterday was hoping for better news than this. Hope they are ok just waiting to be found.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.4154956
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
METAR CYXC 082300Z VRB08KT 20SM -TSRA FEW025 BKN065CB BKN100
OVC180 14/12 A2969 RMK CF1CB4AC2AC1 LTGCG HVYR
SH S+NW CB MVNG NE SLP053 DENSITY ALT 4000FT=
METAR CYXC 082200Z 25011G29KT 15SM -TSRA BKN065CB OVC100
18/12 A2968 RMK CB5AC3 LTGCG S HVYR SH S-W MVNG
E VIS 8 PRESRR SLP043 DENSITY ALT 4400FT=
SPECI CYXC 082143Z 28013G21KT 210V310 20SM -TSRA BKN065CB
OVC095 21/13 A2966 RMK CB5AC3 WSHFT 2119 HVYR
SH SW-NW VIS 10 PRESRR SLP033 DENSITY ALT 4800FT=
SPECI CYXC 082126Z 28010KT 240V320 20SM -SHRA SCT065CB BKN090
OVC180 22/13 A2962 RMK CB4AC3AC1 HVYR SH S-SW
SLP018 DENSITY ALT 5000FT=
GFA:
http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000
OVC180 14/12 A2969 RMK CF1CB4AC2AC1 LTGCG HVYR
SH S+NW CB MVNG NE SLP053 DENSITY ALT 4000FT=
METAR CYXC 082200Z 25011G29KT 15SM -TSRA BKN065CB OVC100
18/12 A2968 RMK CB5AC3 LTGCG S HVYR SH S-W MVNG
E VIS 8 PRESRR SLP043 DENSITY ALT 4400FT=
SPECI CYXC 082143Z 28013G21KT 210V310 20SM -TSRA BKN065CB
OVC095 21/13 A2966 RMK CB5AC3 WSHFT 2119 HVYR
SH SW-NW VIS 10 PRESRR SLP033 DENSITY ALT 4800FT=
SPECI CYXC 082126Z 28010KT 240V320 20SM -SHRA SCT065CB BKN090
OVC180 22/13 A2962 RMK CB4AC3AC1 HVYR SH S-SW
SLP018 DENSITY ALT 5000FT=
GFA:
http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000
Last edited by CpnCrunch on Sun Jun 11, 2017 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Thanks.CpnCrunch wrote:METAR CYXC 082300Z VRB08KT 20SM -TSRA FEW025 BKN065CB BKN100
OVC180 14/12 A2969 RMK CF1CB4AC2AC1 LTGCG HVYR
SH S+NW CB MVNG NE SLP053 DENSITY ALT 4000FT=
METAR CYXC 082200Z 25011G29KT 15SM -TSRA BKN065CB OVC100
18/12 A2968 RMK CB5AC3 LTGCG S HVYR SH S-W MVNG
E VIS 8 PRESRR SLP043 DENSITY ALT 4400FT=
SPECI CYXC 082143Z 28013G21KT 210V310 20SM -TSRA BKN065CB
OVC095 21/13 A2966 RMK CB5AC3 WSHFT 2119 HVYR
SH SW-NW VIS 10 PRESRR SLP033 DENSITY ALT 4800FT=
SPECI CYXC 082126Z 28010KT 240V320 20SM -SHRA SCT065CB BKN090
OVC180 22/13 A2962 RMK CB4AC3AC1 HVYR SH S-SW
SLP018 DENSITY ALT 5000FT=
CBs, 6500 ceiling, surface winds gusting to 29? Unless there's been some radio contact farther along, I'd say St. Mary's Pass is the primary search area.
Can you get the 6000 and 9000 winds aloft, Cpn?
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Sorry, no idea where there would be an archive of those.cncpc wrote: Can you get the 6000 and 9000 winds aloft, Cpn?
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Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Regardless of other factors, doesn't sound too neighbourly for weather, crossing rocks in that type of aircraft, unless those were really isolated.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Very difficult conditions even for an experienced mountain pilot.patter wrote:http://gfaarchive.info/gfaArchive.php?region=gfacn31
What do you think, IFlyforPie?
Patter can you access the winds aloft somewhere?
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
That's a forecast, not actual weather.cncpc wrote:Very difficult conditions even for an experienced mountain pilot.patter wrote:http://gfaarchive.info/gfaArchive.php?region=gfacn31
What do you think, IFlyforPie?
Patter can you access the winds aloft somewhere?
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Yes, I know that. That's why it says GFA.ahramin wrote:That's a forecast, not actual weather.cncpc wrote:Very difficult conditions even for an experienced mountain pilot.patter wrote:http://gfaarchive.info/gfaArchive.php?region=gfacn31
What do you think, IFlyforPie?
Patter can you access the winds aloft somewhere?
The actual weather at Cranbrook at least, combined with the forecast, would say that this pilot was going to face some challenges before he made it to Kootenay Lake. I think one hourly called it 5/8 CBs in the area. The line of flight would have to have penetrated a cold front, if the forecast materialized.
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
If the GFA is issued 30 mins before the validity time, surely it's pretty much actual weather is it not?
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Unless you think Environment Canada has weather monitors stationed at all altitudes on a 1km grid across the country reporting and recording instant weather conditions everywhere - then no, even the most recent GFA is still only a "present time" forecast from the computer models.
DId you hear the one about the jurisprudence fetishist? He got off on a technicality.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Well, I'm not a met expert, but I don't think you need a 1km grid of weather stations to plot the approximate position of a low pressure system and associated fronts covering a whole province, and the average cloud bases over a wide area. You seem to be implying that the current-time GFA is pulled out of the forecaster's ass, which I don't think is a fair assumption. (The 12 hr, perhaps).photofly wrote:Unless you think Environment Canada has weather monitors stationed at all altitudes on a 1km grid across the country reporting and recording instant weather conditions everywhere - then no, even the most recent GFA is still only a "present time" forecast from the computer models.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
There's a lot more information that that on a GFA. It's pulled out of the computer model results, just like the 6 and 12 hour panels. The computer models are updated to include local observations, but observations are tiny point samples of a small subset of model data.CpnCrunch wrote:Well, I'm not a met expert, but I don't think you need a 1km grid of weather stations to plot the approximate position of a low pressure system and associated fronts covering a whole province, and the average cloud bases over a wide area. You seem to be implying that the current-time GFA is pulled out of the forecaster's ass, which I don't think is a fair assumption. (The 12 hr, perhaps).photofly wrote:Unless you think Environment Canada has weather monitors stationed at all altitudes on a 1km grid across the country reporting and recording instant weather conditions everywhere - then no, even the most recent GFA is still only a "present time" forecast from the computer models.
Given the variability of weather in both time and space I don't think you should consider the zero time GFA as "actual weather" either at any particular time or in any particular place. It's simply the best available forecast.
DId you hear the one about the jurisprudence fetishist? He got off on a technicality.
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Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
From my interactions with specialists at the local FIC here, I believe the GFA even for the so-called zero hour is made roughly an hour before it's published, so it is truly a forecast. Even the issue time is usually about 20-30 minutes before it's validity period.photofly wrote: Given the variability of weather in both time and space I don't think you should consider the zero time GFA as "actual weather" either at any particular time or in any particular place. It's simply the best available forecast.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Where's Kasper? He aced his MET.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Well in terms of accuracy of GFAs, it's usually just the location of precipitation from a front that they can't accurately model, especially if it's near the coastline. In this particular case it was showing a very large weather system, with widespread precipitation and instability, and the forecast didn't really change too much between the -12hr and 0hr forecasts for that particular time (apart from the warm front moved further south, nearer the pilot's route).
I just realised that it was 2100, not 2200 when they were in Cranbrook (forgot it's mountain time in some places in BC), so the weather was fine at that time but deteriorated just after:
I just realised that it was 2100, not 2200 when they were in Cranbrook (forgot it's mountain time in some places in BC), so the weather was fine at that time but deteriorated just after:
Code: Select all
SPECI CYXC 082143Z 28013G21KT 210V310 20SM -TSRA BKN065CB
OVC095 21/13 A2966 RMK CB5AC3 WSHFT 2119 HVYR
SH SW-NW VIS 10 PRESRR SLP033 DENSITY ALT 4800FT=
SPECI CYXC 082126Z 28010KT 240V320 20SM -SHRA SCT065CB BKN090
OVC180 22/13 A2962 RMK CB4AC3AC1 HVYR SH S-SW
SLP018 DENSITY ALT 5000FT=
METAR CYXC 082100Z VRB02KT 25SM SCT065CB BKN100 OVC150 23/13
A2963 RMK CB3AC4AC1 SH DIST S-SW SLP018 DENSITY
ALT 5100FT=
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Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
I flew through the Purcells in June a few summers ago, a little to the north of Cranbrook. The Columbia/Kootenay valley was SKC, but there were isolated CBs over the mountains at 12000. I thought it would be no problem to weave my way through them, but the combination of peaks and clouds made it impossible, so I ended up returning to the valley to follow the highway. Those mountains are high enough that a 10000' ceiling would make them impassable, let alone CBs at 6500'.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
This aircraft was travelling into where it was deteriorating. Yes, it was great at takeoff, but a different story for the rest of the trip, starting with getting over Gray's Pass.CpnCrunch wrote:Well in terms of accuracy of GFAs, it's usually just the location of precipitation from a front that they can't accurately model, especially if it's near the coastline. In this particular case it was showing a very large weather system, with widespread precipitation and instability, and the forecast didn't really change too much between the -12hr and 0hr forecasts for that particular time (apart from the warm front moved further south, nearer the pilot's route).
I just realised that it was 2100, not 2200 when they were in Cranbrook (forgot it's mountain time in some places in BC), so the weather was fine at that time but deteriorated just after:
Code: Select all
SPECI CYXC 082143Z 28013G21KT 210V310 20SM -TSRA BKN065CB OVC095 21/13 A2966 RMK CB5AC3 WSHFT 2119 HVYR SH SW-NW VIS 10 PRESRR SLP033 DENSITY ALT 4800FT= SPECI CYXC 082126Z 28010KT 240V320 20SM -SHRA SCT065CB BKN090 OVC180 22/13 A2962 RMK CB4AC3AC1 HVYR SH S-SW SLP018 DENSITY ALT 5000FT= METAR CYXC 082100Z VRB02KT 25SM SCT065CB BKN100 OVC150 23/13 A2963 RMK CB3AC4AC1 SH DIST S-SW SLP018 DENSITY ALT 5100FT=
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
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Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
Getting back on thread any updates and anyone know the. Filed flt plan or itinerary route. There are 4-5 major valleys Columbia, Kootenay , slocan, arrow lakes okanagan several other smaller pass (wx depending ). If direct it path. It would take one over the top end of kootney then near arrow near etc. Keepn fingers crossed those peaks are high. And if he turned around it would possible to end up a high pass like the jumbo pass mistaking it for Mary's or gray creek. Or trout creek at the top end of Kootenay. Fuel good for 4 hours.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
If he was west of those passes, he had Kalso across the lake, Creston at the bottom, and Nelson down the West Arm. I doubt he would have turned around. Taking that Trout Lake route has risks of getting boxed in and once you are into it, you've a ways to go before a place to land, other than the road.oldncold wrote:Getting back on thread any updates and anyone know the. Filed flt plan or itinerary route. There are 4-5 major valleys Columbia, Kootenay , slocan, arrow lakes okanagan several other smaller pass (wx depending ). If direct it path. It would take one over the top end of kootney then near arrow near etc. Keepn fingers crossed those peaks are high. And if he turned around it would possible to end up a high pass like the jumbo pass mistaking it for Mary's or gray creek. Or trout creek at the top end of Kootenay. Fuel good for 4 hours.
I'd say this will be a difficult search.
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
They filed direct, but I can't see how they could have flown direct given the weather. Comox are searching the direct route.oldncold wrote:Getting back on thread any updates and anyone know the. Filed flt plan or itinerary route. There are 4-5 major valleys Columbia, Kootenay , slocan, arrow lakes okanagan several other smaller pass (wx depending ). If direct it path. It would take one over the top end of kootney then near arrow near etc. Keepn fingers crossed those peaks are high. And if he turned around it would possible to end up a high pass like the jumbo pass mistaking it for Mary's or gray creek. Or trout creek at the top end of Kootenay. Fuel good for 4 hours.
http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-new ... ple-in-b-c
I hope someone is searching the valleys. If they did survive, they really need to be found soon.
Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
I certainly agree with the hope that they're found soon. Mountains are extremely harsh areas to have to try and survive.
As for the weather, maybe I'm the biggest scaredy-cat around - but CBs at 6500' isn't what I would call good weather for a takeoff in the mountains. In my opinion (and no one else has to agree) flying a small, low power aircraft in the mountains should only be done in very good VFR weather. There's enough risk due to the terrain itself to complicate it with much less than perfect weather.
As for the weather, maybe I'm the biggest scaredy-cat around - but CBs at 6500' isn't what I would call good weather for a takeoff in the mountains. In my opinion (and no one else has to agree) flying a small, low power aircraft in the mountains should only be done in very good VFR weather. There's enough risk due to the terrain itself to complicate it with much less than perfect weather.
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Re: Warrior with 2 on board fails to arrive in Kamloops
METAR's indicate until 0200Z for that period in YCG never was less than 15 miles or 4200 AGL...YLW never less than 9SM and 5500 agl.
But north seemed a bit worse around Revelstoke:SPECI CYRV 082323Z AUTO 14003KT 5SM -RA BR FEW055 SCT071 OVC100 16/15 A2962 RMK LTNG DIST SW
With such unstable air and some good showers at the wrong time...going direct is quite a challenge out of YXC in those conditions. TAF AMD CYXC 082132Z 0821/0907 19007KT P6SM -SHRA FEW030 SCT060 BKN090
TEMPO 0821/0903 VRB20G30KT 3SM TSRA SCT030 OVC060CB RMK
NXT FCST BY 090100Z=
SPECI CYGE 082127Z 29003KT 250V320 20SM FEW015 SCT120 BKN160
BKN230 17/13 A2967 RMK SC1AC2AS2CI1 SLP049 DENSITY
ALT 3700FT=
TAF AMD CYCG 082315Z 0823/0904 18010G20KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080
TEMPO 0823/0904 VRB25G35KT P6SM -SHRA BKN050
PROB40 0823/0904 2SM TSRA BKN040 OVC070CB RMK NXT FCST
BY 090100Z=
TAF AMD CYLW 082218Z 0822/0907 18018G28KT P6SM -SHRA SCT030 BKN070
TEMPO 0822/0903 BKN030
PROB40 0822/0903 VRB20G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN030 OVC060CB FM090300
19010KT P6SM FEW040 BKN080 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO OBS.
NXT FCST BY 090100Z=
TAF AMD CYKA 082119Z 0821/0907 21010KT P6SM BKN100
TEMPO 0821/0824 VRB25G35KT 6SM TSRA BKN080CB FM090000
22020KT P6SM FEW080 SCT120 RMK NXT FCST BY 090100Z=
But north seemed a bit worse around Revelstoke:SPECI CYRV 082323Z AUTO 14003KT 5SM -RA BR FEW055 SCT071 OVC100 16/15 A2962 RMK LTNG DIST SW
With such unstable air and some good showers at the wrong time...going direct is quite a challenge out of YXC in those conditions. TAF AMD CYXC 082132Z 0821/0907 19007KT P6SM -SHRA FEW030 SCT060 BKN090
TEMPO 0821/0903 VRB20G30KT 3SM TSRA SCT030 OVC060CB RMK
NXT FCST BY 090100Z=
SPECI CYGE 082127Z 29003KT 250V320 20SM FEW015 SCT120 BKN160
BKN230 17/13 A2967 RMK SC1AC2AS2CI1 SLP049 DENSITY
ALT 3700FT=
TAF AMD CYCG 082315Z 0823/0904 18010G20KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080
TEMPO 0823/0904 VRB25G35KT P6SM -SHRA BKN050
PROB40 0823/0904 2SM TSRA BKN040 OVC070CB RMK NXT FCST
BY 090100Z=
TAF AMD CYLW 082218Z 0822/0907 18018G28KT P6SM -SHRA SCT030 BKN070
TEMPO 0822/0903 BKN030
PROB40 0822/0903 VRB20G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN030 OVC060CB FM090300
19010KT P6SM FEW040 BKN080 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO OBS.
NXT FCST BY 090100Z=
TAF AMD CYKA 082119Z 0821/0907 21010KT P6SM BKN100
TEMPO 0821/0824 VRB25G35KT 6SM TSRA BKN080CB FM090000
22020KT P6SM FEW080 SCT120 RMK NXT FCST BY 090100Z=