Classic Dash replacement??

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Julian.B
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by Julian.B »

So how many Dash 8 "Classic" does Jazz still have in YYC/YYZ/YUL, that are still flying as of today? When will they completely leave the fleet?
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

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notwhoyouthinkIam
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by notwhoyouthinkIam »

The -300 is at the maximum size for one flight attendant (50 seats).

The only prop aircraft on the market that would fit the <=50 seats is the ATR42, but that investment would mean that they are throwing a new aircraft type that is incompatible with their existing fleet. At that point, they'd be better off replacing both the -300 and the CRJ100/200 with a single type.

Some US airlines have pulled the AC card (CRJ705) and taken a CRJ700 and had it recertified for only 50 passengers. As a reminder, the 705 is actually a 900 with 75 seats (to comply with scope clause).
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Kosiw
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by Kosiw »

BTD wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 10:03 am This can give a rough idea. Page 15


https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/ ... MDA_q1.pdf
Yikes, the overall (Express) fleet sure is shrinking after each quarter.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

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Kosiw wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 10:32 am
BTD wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 10:03 am This can give a rough idea. Page 15


https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/ ... MDA_q1.pdf
Yikes, the overall (Express) fleet sure is shrinking after each quarter.
Yes, the Express fleet is shrinking. That was expected. COVID just accelerated the change. But the CHR CPA minimum fleet had a nominal increase.

A fleet of 114 fully utilized aircraft will require approximately 1350 active Jazz pilots. The seniority list is over 1750 (although there will be up to 100 pilot departures in 2021). In addition, over 200 Jazz pilots are inactive due to medical leave, LOA, and MGMNT.

Not sure when the Express fleet will be fully utilized again. Won’t be 2022. Hopefully 2023, around the same time that AC starts hiring again which will remedy any remaining pilot surplus at Jazz.

Jazz has barely started the massive exercise of requalifying inactive pilots and running initial type courses to address the pending fleet realignment. That will take many months (AC has set aside nearly 2 years to undertake the same exercise albeit with more fleet types).

The next hurdle for Jazz will be post 2025 when AC makes decisions about the CHR CPA fleet for 2026-2035 and whether it will equal or exceed the minimum guarantee of 80 aircraft. 114 to 80 represents hundreds of Jazz pilot jobs.
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Julian.B
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by Julian.B »

rudder wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 11:06 am The next hurdle for Jazz will be post 2025 when AC makes decisions about the CHR CPA fleet for 2026-2035 and whether it will equal or exceed the minimum guarantee of 80 aircraft. 114 to 80 represents hundreds of Jazz pilot jobs.
Hopefully things pick up by then and the "downsize from 114 to 80" will not affect any jobs, but will realign itself with normal retirements and AC hiring of Jazz pilots.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by goleafsgo »

Julian.B wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 8:32 am So how many Dash 8 "Classic" does Jazz still have in YYC/YYZ/YUL, that are still flying as of today? When will they completely leave the fleet?
I think there’s 4 left in YYZ
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by Julian.B »

goleafsgo wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 12:31 pm
Julian.B wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 8:32 am So how many Dash 8 "Classic" does Jazz still have in YYC/YYZ/YUL, that are still flying as of today? When will they completely leave the fleet?
I think there’s 4 left in YYZ
Holly crap! That's not a lot. I guess everyone is on reserve? #GoLEAFS! #booHabbs
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notwhoyouthinkIam
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by notwhoyouthinkIam »

Are Classic Dash pilots a different group than the Q400 pilots? It is a common type rating, but I understand that the flying is quite different.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

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notwhoyouthinkIam wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 1:44 pm Are Classic Dash pilots a different group than the Q400 pilots? It is a common type rating, but I understand that the flying is quite different.
Same type rating. Jazz, however, does not consider it. Dash 8-100/300 was flown by the same pilots and the Q400 by other pilots.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by rudder »

Julian.B wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 2:06 pm
notwhoyouthinkIam wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 1:44 pm Are Classic Dash pilots a different group than the Q400 pilots? It is a common type rating, but I understand that the flying is quite different.
Same type rating. Jazz, however, does not consider it. Dash 8-100/300 was flown by the same pilots and the Q400 by other pilots.
Much more complicated than that. TC would have required CCQ.

If Jazz wanted Dash 8-300 and Q400 pilots to fly both types regularly, then they would have to do alternating SIM training, and have currency on line operations.

Jazz made the decision not to consider that. Would have required ALPA input and approval.

Now a moot point. Dash 8-300 pilots can qualify on the Q400 with a differences course, SIM, and line Indoc.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by Splash »

rudder wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 11:06 am
Kosiw wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 10:32 am
BTD wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 10:03 am This can give a rough idea. Page 15


https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/ ... MDA_q1.pdf
Yikes, the overall (Express) fleet sure is shrinking after each quarter.
The next hurdle for Jazz will be post 2025 when AC makes decisions about the CHR CPA fleet for 2026-2035 and whether it will equal or exceed the minimum guarantee of 80 aircraft. 114 to 80 represents hundreds of Jazz pilot jobs.
At the very least I anticipate AC will remove the 15 CRJ-200s from the fleet plan at the end of 2025, leaving a potential 199 covered aircraft. Of course the minimum is 80. so who knows.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by Julian.B »

rudder wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 3:03 pm
Julian.B wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 2:06 pm
notwhoyouthinkIam wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 1:44 pm Are Classic Dash pilots a different group than the Q400 pilots? It is a common type rating, but I understand that the flying is quite different.
Same type rating. Jazz, however, does not consider it. Dash 8-100/300 was flown by the same pilots and the Q400 by other pilots.
Much more complicated than that. TC would have required CCQ.

If Jazz wanted Dash 8-300 and Q400 pilots to fly both types regularly, then they would have to do alternating SIM training, and have currency on line operations.

Jazz made the decision not to consider that. Would have required ALPA input and approval.

Now a moot point. Dash 8-300 pilots can qualify on the Q400 with a differences course, SIM, and line Indoc.

Such horsesh*t that "Bombardier" (or whoever owns the Q400 / Dash 8 now) advertised it as a "common type". It's literally like one of those "Reverse Mortgage deals"... complete BS.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by Julian.B »

Splash wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 3:32 pm At the very least I anticipate AC will remove the 15 CRJ-200s from the fleet plan at the end of 2025, leaving a potential 199 covered aircraft. Of course the minimum is 80. so who knows.
I think the CRJ 200 should be out right behind the Dash 8 Classic. They're old and have outlived their purpose.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by rudder »

Julian.B wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 3:48 pm
Splash wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 3:32 pm At the very least I anticipate AC will remove the 15 CRJ-200s from the fleet plan at the end of 2025, leaving a potential 199 covered aircraft. Of course the minimum is 80. so who knows.
I think the CRJ 200 should be out right behind the Dash 8 Classic. They're old and have outlived their purpose.
AC would be wise to task CHR with sourcing some used CRJ700’s on short term leases. The era of the CRJ200 will end by 2025. 20 year old CRJ’s (particularly the least passenger friendly models) are not part of a sustainable fleet plan. Perhaps phasing them out early would be a wise commercial decision.

AC - either on its own or via CHR - will need to source the 76 seat jet replacement for the 15 older CRJ900’s and the entire E175 fleet (25). These aircraft are all 2005/2006 vintage. Planning to operate them beyond 2025/2026 is not realistic. CRJ’s and EMB’s are not Boeing’s or Airbuses. Lifespan beyond 2 decades was not part of the original plan.

Either AC or CHR will have to place an order for E2’s. Commercial availability of the E175-E2 is delayed to 2024. Probably an order placed in 2023-2025 with deliveries commencing in 2024-2026. First 15 to replace oldest CRJ900’s. Next 25 to replace first generation E175’s. 5 AC leases on ex-Skywest CRJ900’s will expire. AC will have ongoing staggered lease obligations to CHR for the 15 newer CRJ900’s which will extend in to the 2026-2030 timeframe.

AC will have to sort out end state for post 2025 Express fleet plan. AC could go back to the future and create GGN 2 to operate the CRJ200’s or SKV 2 to operate the 39 Q400’s, but it is still on the hook for a decade (2026-2035) for a fleet of 80 76 seat aircraft at Jazz to meet its obligations under the CPA.

If AC decides to leave 35 Q400’s at Jazz, then it will need at least 45 E2’s. Or 30/50. Or 25/55. Or perhaps 0/80? It will be a few more years before this answer will be known.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by Julian.B »

Some thing that Jazz will not even be around. It'll be absorbed into AC and all the regional flying will be farmed out to "codeshare partners". I don't know how much credence this theory has, but it makes sense. Jazz pilots do make good money and have a great contract. Capitalism has other plans.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by 47north »

rudder wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 4:55 pm
Julian.B wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 3:48 pm
Splash wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 3:32 pm At the very least I anticipate AC will remove the 15 CRJ-200s from the fleet plan at the end of 2025, leaving a potential 199 covered aircraft. Of course the minimum is 80. so who knows.
I think the CRJ 200 should be out right behind the Dash 8 Classic. They're old and have outlived their purpose.
AC would be wise to task CHR with sourcing some used CRJ700’s on short term leases. The era of the CRJ200 will end by 2025. 20 year old CRJ’s (particularly the least passenger friendly models) are not part of a sustainable fleet plan. Perhaps phasing them out early would be a wise commercial decision.
A CRJ700 at Jazz makes no sense. The operating cost is not much different than a 900 with less seats. It’s been looked at before and it won’t happen.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

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Julian.B wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 5:02 pm Some thing that Jazz will not even be around. It'll be absorbed into AC and all the regional flying will be farmed out to "codeshare partners". I don't know how much credence this theory has, but it makes sense. Jazz pilots do make good money and have a great contract. Capitalism has other plans.
As the boomers leave Jazz and average fleet gauge increases, Jazz gets cheaper on a CASM basis.

To absorb Jazz, AC would have to either buy it from CHR or buy CHR. Unless the share price drops to bargain basement, makes no sense. CHR derives revenue from AC for both the CPA and aircraft leases.

AC would be wise to let CHR finance the Express fleet renewal. CHR seems extremely motivated to expand the leasing arm portfolio (Chorus Aviation Capital). Debt will reside on CHR balance sheet, not AC.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by DHC-1 Jockey »

Julian.B wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 8:32 am So how many Dash 8 "Classic" does Jazz still have in YYC/YYZ/YUL, that are still flying as of today? When will they completely leave the fleet?
The Civil Aircraft Register still shows that Jazz has 20 DH8-301/311's currently registered.
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Re: Classic Dash replacement??

Post by Splash »

rudder wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 4:55 pm
Julian.B wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 3:48 pm
Splash wrote: Sun May 30, 2021 3:32 pm At the very least I anticipate AC will remove the 15 CRJ-200s from the fleet plan at the end of 2025, leaving a potential 199 covered aircraft. Of course the minimum is 80. so who knows.
I think the CRJ 200 should be out right behind the Dash 8 Classic. They're old and have outlived their purpose.
AC would be wise to task CHR with sourcing some used CRJ700’s on short term leases. The era of the CRJ200 will end by 2025. 20 year old CRJ’s (particularly the least passenger friendly models) are not part of a sustainable fleet plan. Perhaps phasing them out early would be a wise commercial decision.

AC - either on its own or via CHR - will need to source the 76 seat jet replacement for the 15 older CRJ900’s and the entire E175 fleet (25). These aircraft are all 2005/2006 vintage. Planning to operate them beyond 2025/2026 is not realistic. CRJ’s and EMB’s are not Boeing’s or Airbuses. Lifespan beyond 2 decades was not part of the original plan.

Either AC or CHR will have to place an order for E2’s. Commercial availability of the E175-E2 is delayed to 2024. Probably an order placed in 2023-2025 with deliveries commencing in 2024-2026. First 15 to replace oldest CRJ900’s. Next 25 to replace first generation E175’s. 5 AC leases on ex-Skywest CRJ900’s will expire. AC will have ongoing staggered lease obligations to CHR for the 15 newer CRJ900’s which will extend in to the 2026-2030 timeframe.

AC will have to sort out end state for post 2025 Express fleet plan. AC could go back to the future and create GGN 2 to operate the CRJ200’s or SKV 2 to operate the 39 Q400’s, but it is still on the hook for a decade (2026-2035) for a fleet of 80 76 seat aircraft at Jazz to meet its obligations under the CPA.

If AC decides to leave 35 Q400’s at Jazz, then it will need at least 45 E2’s. Or 30/50. Or 25/55. Or perhaps 0/80? It will be a few more years before this answer will be known.
As much as I respect and appreciate your well articulated posts, I don't see CRJ 700's in Jazz's CPA future, primarily from an economics perspective.

The E2's could be problematic with the aircraft being heavy due to the PW GTF engines and how the AC mainline scope clause comes into play with aircraft weights. Embraer is still building E1's primarily for the USA market due to mainline scope clauses, so I expect that version to still be in play for sometime to come.

Looking forward to the future fleet mix, I anticipate it will comprise of the full limit of 60 regional jets with 76 seats as permitted by the aforementioned AC mainline scope clause. It would be foolish for AC not to take advantage of that limit.

To what extent the Q400's plays in a future fleet, I'll go with the current 39, which will top the combined fleet out at 99 once the CRJ200's are removed.

The future mainline ratio of flying is what needs to watched too with the addition of the A223's, it may impact some domestic and TB routes that were a given for Jazz to operate.
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