Is this The End of the Pilot Career

[light chop]

I remember back to that DC-10 accident in Sioux City Iowa where the pilots managed to get the thing on the ground and save a bunch of lives. You pull the pilots out of the cockpit and you’ve got no “out of the box” thinking or last ditch attempt to solve a serious problem. Not sure some pop tart munchin’ remote pilot could do much especially if telemetry is lost. Software will probably never get that good even with machine learning and mountains of training data. Maybe the cost savings outweigh the value of passengers lost...

[challenger_nami]

Aviation is SOOOO regulated that you legally can not put any non aviation approved SCREWS on your Private Cessna 172.

It has to be aviation approved for your Cessna 172 ... even if the not-approved screws you have are 10 times higher quality than the aviation grade screws, with half the price.

I am not saying the pilots won’t be obsolete at some point, but not for a LOOOOOONG while.

[photofly]

Aviation is SOOOO regulated that you legally can not put any non aviation approved SCREWS on your Private Cessna 172.

Absolutely you can. Screws are standard parts. They don’t need aviation approval. They do need to be manufactured to the appropriate specification. Which is a perfectly reasonable requirement. If you can find screws manufactured to a higher specification at a lower cost, then fill your boots.

[challenger_nami]

Aviation is SOOOO regulated that you legally can not put any non aviation approved SCREWS on your Private Cessna 172.

Absolutely you can. Screws are standard parts. They don’t need aviation approval. They do need to be manufactured to the appropriate specification. Which is a perfectly reasonable requirement. If you can find screws manufactured to a higher specification at a lower cost, then fill your boots.

I don’t want to change the subject of the thread.

*********************************************************

But Yeah, try buying a handful of random screws ( without a box and any paperwork) from Home Depot and take them to a maintenance shop and tell them you want to have your own screws Put on the plane.

The maintenance shop most likely refuses and tell you they wont, unless you can show them this and that... and prove this and that.

I agree that if you know are technically gifted and know your screws and tools, maybe you win and you can convince them.

But if you are lacking the knowledge, you have to surrender and buy the maintenance shops screws at 3 times the cost.... for the same quality of screws you had in the first place.

Screws where a simplified example of regulatory oversight in aviation, and I am pretty sure you know what I mean.

*********************************************************
Now let’s get back to the main subject of the thread

[rookiepilot]

Maybe the cost savings outweigh the value of passengers lost...

DING, DING, DING.

[planebored]

Maybe the cost savings outweigh the value of passengers lost...

DING, DING, DING.

I doubt the 2-4% cost savings of pilots (Well it would be less than that because someone would still need to "monitor" from the ground) outweighs anything.

Pilots really need to stop pretending we're some major cost to the companies we work for.

[Zaibatsu]

2 to 4%. Isn’t that in the neighborhood of what Westjets profits are as a percentage of gross revenues before covid? Isn’t Air Canada only a couple percentage points higher than that?

2 to 4% is a major expense. Maybe not as much as fuel or maintenance or aircraft or infrastructure, but with tiny margins any method of cutting costs will be explored if they don’t result in higher expenses or lost revenues.

How are your flight engineer pals doing these days? What do you think their costs were? You’re talking percentage of percentages but airlines dumped all three crew planes years ago to save money.

As soon as it is legal to do so, they will remove the second pilot from the aircraft. It won’t even be a safety issue because we have seen that profits are far more important than safety.

[planebored]

I could see long haul going to two pilots if a bunk was IN the flight deck.

Other than that I see zero chance we go to one.

Every plane I've flown so far up to and including a heavy can be flown by one person quite easily.

The trouble comes when it's 3am and you're on your second shift on your way to Dubai and couldn't sleep on your last break because of turbulence.

[RRJetPilot]

2 to 4%. Isn’t that in the neighborhood of what Westjets profits are as a percentage of gross revenues before covid? Isn’t Air Canada only a couple percentage points higher than that?

2 to 4% is a major expense. Maybe not as much as fuel or maintenance or aircraft or infrastructure, but with tiny margins any method of cutting costs will be explored if they don’t result in higher expenses or lost revenues.

How are your flight engineer pals doing these days? What do you think their costs were? You’re talking percentage of percentages but airlines dumped all three crew planes years ago to save money.

As soon as it is legal to do so, they will remove the second pilot from the aircraft. It won’t even be a safety issue because we have seen that profits are far more important than safety.

Every airplane manufactured today is made for 2 pilots and has a projected lifespan of 40 years? You are smoking something quite strong if you think all it takes is some accountant or regulator to come up with the one pilot idea

Lets see some self driving cars first. They cant even get that right.
https://youtu.be/fEOTECZDwfY
The Tesla was running stop signs in ideal weather...

[digits_]

I'm not sure why people seem to think we need self driving cars first. Airplanes are much easier to automate. There is already so much technology in the planes to get them from A to B without ever looking outside.

The self driving cars biggest hurdle is to analyze what is going on around them. Airplanes already know everything they need to. Much easier to get rid of a pilot vs getting rid of a driver.

[Gino Under]

I’m thinkin’ Cat IIIb auto land ...
Autonomous airliners are on the way.
If I’m sitting in a closet one day soon, monitoring a flight from YYZ to DXB on some fancy autonomous flight controller rig, you can bet the next guy up will replace me 2 or 3 hours into the flight and someone else will replace him 2 or 3 hours after that. So, be prepared.
Pilots will not be needed to anywhere near the extent they were in the past.
Drone pilots will replace us. So, a word to the wise, you might wanna head in that direction while you’re laid off or just sittin around waiting for a flying job.
Go get your drone pilot licence.
Money (you don’t have) well spent.

Gino Under

[fruz]

How would a fully automated handle a hijacker? What if the aircraft was hacked. Just a couple of scenarios to chew on. I’m sure the engineers are looking at this but this is a big sell. Our own government can’t even stop hackers from infiltrating our CRA accounts.

One pilot will most likely happen at some point yes. But between the slow wheel of regulatory change, consumer confidence, and above safety mitigation strategies were looking at many years before this is even close.

And like another said, airlines aren’t just going to switch over their fleets at the drop of hat to save a minuscule amount.

Another poster likened this to automated cashiers....people came around to it...I’m sorry but swiping your groceries and landing on a slick runway are quite different. People won’t switch to automation as quickly as you think. Specifically industries that are heavily regulated through safety.

[pilotguy53]

It's naive to think that airline pilots will not be replaced by AI/automation. There are already AI algorithms flying BFM (Basic Fighter Manoeuvres, AKA "dog fighting") in simulated fighter environments. BFM is arguably one of the most complicated, split-second decision making, high-tasked situations in aviation. Have a look at the Loyal Wingman/other autonomous drones which perform far more complex mission sets than what airliners do... fly A to B at Flight Level XYZ. Divert around weather? No problem. Missed approach to the alternate? No problem. Follow checklists? No problem.

I don't buy the safety aspect as a majority of incidents and accidents are human error related. What about the Air Canada flight that nearly landed on a taxi-way in San Francisco? What about the WestJet flight that skidded off the runway in Halifax from landing in a snow storm with a tail wind? The list goes on, and on... Computers can easily make decisions by analyzing external conditions and the environment.

I do agree that consumer confidence and security threats ("hacking") will play a part... but these are things that can be worked through quite easily, as certain aspects of aviation already operate in contested environments.

May not happen soon, but it will happen...

[pelmet]

I'm the consumer. I seek out cashiers, rather than automated pay stations, so I will sure seek out airplanes being flown by pilots for my transportation!

Well, I hate to bust your bubble on that, Dar, but they don't care about you, or any of the consumers that care about a higher standard of service, or safety, in any industry.

Do you recall shoppers drug mart got some negative media attention for taking All cashiers out of a few stores. One employee left, to point people to self serve stations. They got flack, they back off. For a little while. Then they push again. Reduce people. Reduce people.

They will sell you, program you, as some of you here sell. "Everyone wants lower prices and nothing else" -- so forget any substance to service.

They push, and they push. Less FA's. Check in yourself, tag your own bag, weigh your own bag, AND load it correctly on the belt yourself. Anything goes wrong, it's your fault. Here's a 1800 number that you can't reach a human being.

Combine that with the trend towards monopolies, and what are you supposed to do?

Small businesses that can't afford to invest in the automation, become ground to dust, because they've programmed most people, their few dollars saved is worth more than their time.

My time is valuable. It ticks me off. I despise the modern self serve economy. I'll pay more. But that's not an option, except at the top top top level, which I'm not.

Canada is just like dozens of countries I've visited with less sterling reputations. Run by a small handful of families. THEY, not you consumer, decide what you get, and they are a lot cosier with the regulators than you are.

The water is boiled very slowly, and you don't even notice....

The answer: Tax. Tax every pay station, every automated baggage belt, exactly like the employee it displaced. Ongoing, permanently,

They want to remove safety and service, make them pay.

But that ain't gonna happen.

Unless you are naive enough to think we live in a democracy that gives a rip about you and me.

Every one of you are dinosaurs, just as I am in my world.

It's a certainty, no pilots. Only a matter of time.

An interesting post. But I am not into the tax everything idea. We need automation these days with so many people taking part in the Great Resignation. Shoppers has automation and so do some other stores. I frequently find it vey convenient. Should I have to pay more in tazes for that instead of a lineup because there is a shortage of cashiers due to resignation or half are sick with Omicron.

As for a handful of families, there are always some large family businesses. I suppose New Brunswick might fall into the category but what families are we talking about. Loblaws is family owned but there is competition. Wal-Mart is a foreign family. The airlines are a duopoly but not family owned. I think it is more like marketing boards such as the dairy industry that is the problem, like OPEC....a cartel.

[Invertago]

If you want to convert any big jet to single pilot simply remove or automate the flaps and you don’t need an FO anymore. It’s pretty simple really.

[WANP]

The days of single pilot planes is probably closer, than some want to admit.
A pilot should be able to read their own airspeed, raise and lower the flaps and gear on their own. Just like private pilots do all the time.

[Tbayer2021]

The days of single pilot planes is probably closer, than some want to admit.
A pilot should be able to read their own airspeed, raise and lower the flaps and gear on their own. Just like private pilots do all the time.

It's really concerning the large amount of pilots who seem to have zero concern about automation. Fedex is already actively trying to automate the 208s and ATRs, they're already flight testing prototypes. The 208 being pilotless and the ATR being single pilot. Some point at the lifespan of 2 crew aircraft being made today. That doesn't necessarily mean as much as they think it does. Most aircraft built with a flight engineer position were phased out from airline use well before their useful lifespan was up.

I get it, its not nice to think about losing your job to lines of code. Specially if you're at a cushy 705. But like WANP said, its probably closer than we think.

[Bede]

The days of single pilot planes is probably closer, than some want to admit.
A pilot should be able to read their own airspeed, raise and lower the flaps and gear on their own. Just like private pilots do all the time.

I don't think that you understand what pilots do in a 2 crew environment.

[photofly]

The days of single pilot planes is probably closer, than some want to admit.
A pilot should be able to read their own airspeed, raise and lower the flaps and gear on their own. Just like private pilots do all the time.

I don't think that you understand what pilots do in a 2 crew environment.

Don't worry - a computer can be programmed to simulate bitching about pay and conditions to an adequate standard.

[Bede]

Don't worry - a computer can be programmed to simulate bitching about pay and conditions to an adequate standard.

GPT-4 will be able to do it.