Chorus to be sold ?

Discuss topics relating to Jazz Aviation LP.

Moderators: sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, North Shore, I WAS Birddog

rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 3848
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by rudder »

genetic jack hammer wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:09 am
...including the Airbus A220..????
Chorus Aviation Capital (leasing division) not Jazz.
---------- ADS -----------
 
genetic jack hammer
Rank 6
Rank 6
Posts: 498
Joined: Sat Jul 22, 2006 4:50 pm
Location: right here

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by genetic jack hammer »

Got it, thx
---------- ADS -----------
 
rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 3848
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by rudder »

JoeyBarton wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:21 am
So what kind of timeline are we looking at here?
Days or weeks, not months.

CHR may simply announce that no agreement was reached (offer rejected or withdrawn).

There may be a period where CHR does due diligence on the offer presented. There may be a period of negotiation that results in a modified offer with BOD support.

The AC/TRZ transaction is illustrative of some of the logistics, conditions, timing, and process involved. However, in that case all of the work was done by the parties confidentially prior to announcing an agreement with BOD support (twice).

The CHR BOD may already know what their response will be to the unsolicited conditional offer. However, they must exercise due diligence in order to protect themselves from shareholder challenge.

Due diligence = CHR will have to hire external advisors to review the offer and make recommendations. Given the unsolicited nature of the offer, that will take some time.
---------- ADS -----------
 
AA123455
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:45 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by AA123455 »

rudder wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:34 am
JoeyBarton wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:21 am
So what kind of timeline are we looking at here?
Days or weeks, not months.

CHR may simply announce that no agreement was reached (offer rejected or withdrawn).

There may be a period where CHR does due diligence on the offer presented. There may be a period of negotiation that results in a modified offer with BOD support.

The AC/TRZ transaction is illustrative of some of the logistics, conditions, timing, and process involved. However, in that case all of the work was done by the parties confidentially prior to announcing an agreement with BOD support (twice).

The CHR BOD may already know what their response will be to the unsolicited conditional offer. However, they must exercise due diligence in order to protect themselves from shareholder challenge.

Due diligence = CHR will have to hire external advisors to review the offer and make recommendations. Given the unsolicited nature of the offer, that will take some time.
CHR press release said it does not intend to announce further communication unless a deal is announced.

Unsolicited offer = hostile takeover... I’m sure CHR management is fighting for their lives to keep the vultures at bay, for everyone at CHR/Jazz I hope they succeed.
---------- ADS -----------
 
mbav8r
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2325
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2006 8:11 am
Location: Manitoba

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by mbav8r »

AA123455 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:46 pm
rudder wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:34 am
JoeyBarton wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:21 am
So what kind of timeline are we looking at here?
Days or weeks, not months.

CHR may simply announce that no agreement was reached (offer rejected or withdrawn).

There may be a period where CHR does due diligence on the offer presented. There may be a period of negotiation that results in a modified offer with BOD support.

The AC/TRZ transaction is illustrative of some of the logistics, conditions, timing, and process involved. However, in that case all of the work was done by the parties confidentially prior to announcing an agreement with BOD support (twice).

The CHR BOD may already know what their response will be to the unsolicited conditional offer. However, they must exercise due diligence in order to protect themselves from shareholder challenge.

Due diligence = CHR will have to hire external advisors to review the offer and make recommendations. Given the unsolicited nature of the offer, that will take some time.
CHR press release said it does not intend to announce further communication unless a deal is announced.

Unsolicited offer = hostile takeover... I’m sure CHR management is fighting for their lives to keep the vultures at bay, for everyone at CHR/Jazz I hope they succeed.
You should read up on poison pills, Chorus implemented it months ago, equals no hostel takeovers.
---------- ADS -----------
 
"Stand-by, I'm inverted"
AA123455
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:45 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by AA123455 »

The shareholder rights plan isn’t a guarantee of no hostile takeovers. It’s a plan in the event of hostile take over, shareholders have a right to purchase shares at a significant discount, making unwanted takeovers more expensive, not impossible.
---------- ADS -----------
 
CPT.HarshColdReality
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 149
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:07 am

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by CPT.HarshColdReality »

Inverted2 wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:36 am Well let’s not get too carried away yet. We don’t know who it is or even if it will go through at all. If it were AC, I’d be happy if the lists were to remain separate though. I chose to stay at Jazz and have no desire to “fly the big planes” someday.
you dont have too. if there is one list then you can just bid on a dash or rj. the advantages here outweigh anything else. Opportunity to negotiate a better contract list wide.
---------- ADS -----------
 
47north
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 225
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 4:44 am

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by 47north »

CPT.HarshColdReality wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:47 pm
Inverted2 wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:36 am Well let’s not get too carried away yet. We don’t know who it is or even if it will go through at all. If it were AC, I’d be happy if the lists were to remain separate though. I chose to stay at Jazz and have no desire to “fly the big planes” someday.
you dont have too. if there is one list then you can just bid on a dash or rj. the advantages here outweigh anything else. Opportunity to negotiate a better contract list wide.
Except for the $, the Jazz contract is superior in many ways.
---------- ADS -----------
 
spinaxis
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:26 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by spinaxis »

47north wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:57 pm
CPT.HarshColdReality wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:47 pm
Inverted2 wrote: Mon Oct 26, 2020 7:36 am Well let’s not get too carried away yet. We don’t know who it is or even if it will go through at all. If it were AC, I’d be happy if the lists were to remain separate though. I chose to stay at Jazz and have no desire to “fly the big planes” someday.
you dont have too. if there is one list then you can just bid on a dash or rj. the advantages here outweigh anything else. Opportunity to negotiate a better contract list wide.
Except for the $, the Jazz contract is superior in many ways.
Shhhh... All the old AC farts will get mad if you mention that 😂


I completely agree. Everything is better.
---------- ADS -----------
 
airway
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 368
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:17 am

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by airway »

AA123455 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:46 pm
Unsolicited offer = hostile takeover... I’m sure CHR management is fighting for their lives to keep the vultures at bay, for everyone at CHR/Jazz I hope they succeed.
Not necessarily. What if they were offering $8 a share?
---------- ADS -----------
 
spinaxis
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:26 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by spinaxis »

airway wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:05 pm
AA123455 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:46 pm
Unsolicited offer = hostile takeover... I’m sure CHR management is fighting for their lives to keep the vultures at bay, for everyone at CHR/Jazz I hope they succeed.
Not necessarily. What if they were offering $8 a share?
1.3 billion valuation? I find it extremely hard to see anyone willing to pay that much for Chorus in this current climate.
---------- ADS -----------
 
speedah
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 92
Joined: Thu Oct 31, 2013 2:46 pm
Location: Clear of 27 on Delta

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by speedah »

I doubt they will pay a 300%+ premium on the closing price prior to the announcement on friday...
airway wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:05 pm
AA123455 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:46 pm
Unsolicited offer = hostile takeover... I’m sure CHR management is fighting for their lives to keep the vultures at bay, for everyone at CHR/Jazz I hope they succeed.
Not necessarily. What if they were offering $8 a share?
---------- ADS -----------
 
rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 3848
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by rudder »

speedah wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:24 am I doubt they will pay a 300%+ premium on the closing price prior to the announcement on Friday.....
Thus far, the market is pricing in a 30% increase over the prior 50 day average closing price.
---------- ADS -----------
 
spinaxis
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:26 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by spinaxis »

That means nothing.
---------- ADS -----------
 
rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 3848
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by rudder »

spinaxis wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:12 am That means nothing.
That is the market placing a bet. Nothing more. Nothing less.

I could give you a long dissertation on valuation based on net present value of future earnings adjusted for risk but clearly there is no certainty on earnings in this environment, irrespective of the AC CPA, the leasing division, Voyageur, or the MRO division.

Something is worth what somebody else is willing to pay for it.
---------- ADS -----------
 
truedude
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 733
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2004 3:30 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by truedude »

spinaxis wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:22 pm
airway wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:05 pm
AA123455 wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:46 pm
Unsolicited offer = hostile takeover... I’m sure CHR management is fighting for their lives to keep the vultures at bay, for everyone at CHR/Jazz I hope they succeed.
Not necessarily. What if they were offering $8 a share?
1.3 billion valuation? I find it extremely hard to see anyone willing to pay that much for Chorus in this current climate.
It is worth about $8 a share. The market is depressed, and everyone that watches Chorus has a valuation between $4 and $6. If someone is trying to buy it out, they would have to convince all the shareholders that their offer is superior to just waiting for the market to return. Personally, I would not sell at anything under $6.
---------- ADS -----------
 
fish4life
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2405
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2010 6:32 am

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by fish4life »

truedude wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:46 am
spinaxis wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:22 pm
airway wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:05 pm

Not necessarily. What if they were offering $8 a share?
1.3 billion valuation? I find it extremely hard to see anyone willing to pay that much for Chorus in this current climate.
It is worth about $8 a share. The market is depressed, and everyone that watches Chorus has a valuation between $4 and $6. If someone is trying to buy it out, they would have to convince all the shareholders that their offer is superior to just waiting for the market to return. Personally, I would not sell at anything under $6.
It’s not worth $8/share, that was the pre-pandemic value before there was a big risk of CPA renegotiation with less favourable terms. Right now I can buy Chorus stock for a little over $3/ share from someone willing to sell it for that price which is how much the stock is worth.

YOUR perceived value of a stock is much different than what a stock is actually worth.
---------- ADS -----------
 
truedude
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 733
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2004 3:30 pm

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by truedude »

fish4life wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:35 pm
truedude wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:46 am
spinaxis wrote: Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:22 pm

1.3 billion valuation? I find it extremely hard to see anyone willing to pay that much for Chorus in this current climate.
It is worth about $8 a share. The market is depressed, and everyone that watches Chorus has a valuation between $4 and $6. If someone is trying to buy it out, they would have to convince all the shareholders that their offer is superior to just waiting for the market to return. Personally, I would not sell at anything under $6.
It’s not worth $8/share, that was the pre-pandemic value before there was a big risk of CPA renegotiation with less favourable terms. Right now I can buy Chorus stock for a little over $3/ share from someone willing to sell it for that price which is how much the stock is worth.

YOUR perceived value of a stock is much different than what a stock is actually worth.
Yes, you can buy stock for $3. That isn't in dispute. The question is, how much stock can you buy for $3. There is a strong likely hood that the same stock is being traded again and again.

There isn't going to be a huge change in the CPA, as it is pretty much cost neutral now. The revenue from it is from the leases Chorus holds on the airplanes. That is the value. And chorus doesn't hold the lease on all the airplanes. You need to find the price in which the majority of shareholders are prepared to sell at, not the same stock that day traders continuously recycle.
---------- ADS -----------
 
mbav8r
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2325
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2006 8:11 am
Location: Manitoba

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by mbav8r »

truedude wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:01 pm
fish4life wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:35 pm
truedude wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:46 am

It is worth about $8 a share. The market is depressed, and everyone that watches Chorus has a valuation between $4 and $6. If someone is trying to buy it out, they would have to convince all the shareholders that their offer is superior to just waiting for the market to return. Personally, I would not sell at anything under $6.
It’s not worth $8/share, that was the pre-pandemic value before there was a big risk of CPA renegotiation with less favourable terms. Right now I can buy Chorus stock for a little over $3/ share from someone willing to sell it for that price which is how much the stock is worth.

YOUR perceived value of a stock is much different than what a stock is actually worth.
Yes, you can buy stock for $3. That isn't in dispute. The question is, how much stock can you buy for $3. There is a strong likely hood that the same stock is being traded again and again.

There isn't going to be a huge change in the CPA, as it is pretty much cost neutral now. The revenue from it is from the leases Chorus holds on the airplanes. That is the value. And chorus doesn't hold the lease on all the airplanes. You need to find the price in which the majority of shareholders are prepared to sell at, not the same stock that day traders continuously recycle.
Yep, I’m hanging on to my shares for a return to 7ish, would consider 6 but for certain less than that I’ll ride them to 0
---------- ADS -----------
 
"Stand-by, I'm inverted"
fish4life
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2405
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2010 6:32 am

Re: Chorus to be sold ?

Post by fish4life »

Air Canada may get to a point where they stop paying chorus for a few months and then go through CCAA at which point Chorus will most likely not get paid for those months and the CPA could be up for renegotiation as a reduced rate with much less aircraft. That is one risk being priced into the stock thus reducing its value.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Post Reply

Return to “Jazz Aviation LP - Air Canada Express”