Chorus Aviation Capital (leasing division) not Jazz.
Chorus to be sold ?
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Re: Chorus to be sold ?
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Re: Chorus to be sold ?
Days or weeks, not months.
CHR may simply announce that no agreement was reached (offer rejected or withdrawn).
There may be a period where CHR does due diligence on the offer presented. There may be a period of negotiation that results in a modified offer with BOD support.
The AC/TRZ transaction is illustrative of some of the logistics, conditions, timing, and process involved. However, in that case all of the work was done by the parties confidentially prior to announcing an agreement with BOD support (twice).
The CHR BOD may already know what their response will be to the unsolicited conditional offer. However, they must exercise due diligence in order to protect themselves from shareholder challenge.
Due diligence = CHR will have to hire external advisors to review the offer and make recommendations. Given the unsolicited nature of the offer, that will take some time.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
CHR press release said it does not intend to announce further communication unless a deal is announced.rudder wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:34 amDays or weeks, not months.
CHR may simply announce that no agreement was reached (offer rejected or withdrawn).
There may be a period where CHR does due diligence on the offer presented. There may be a period of negotiation that results in a modified offer with BOD support.
The AC/TRZ transaction is illustrative of some of the logistics, conditions, timing, and process involved. However, in that case all of the work was done by the parties confidentially prior to announcing an agreement with BOD support (twice).
The CHR BOD may already know what their response will be to the unsolicited conditional offer. However, they must exercise due diligence in order to protect themselves from shareholder challenge.
Due diligence = CHR will have to hire external advisors to review the offer and make recommendations. Given the unsolicited nature of the offer, that will take some time.
Unsolicited offer = hostile takeover... I’m sure CHR management is fighting for their lives to keep the vultures at bay, for everyone at CHR/Jazz I hope they succeed.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
You should read up on poison pills, Chorus implemented it months ago, equals no hostel takeovers.AA123455 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:46 pmCHR press release said it does not intend to announce further communication unless a deal is announced.rudder wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:34 amDays or weeks, not months.
CHR may simply announce that no agreement was reached (offer rejected or withdrawn).
There may be a period where CHR does due diligence on the offer presented. There may be a period of negotiation that results in a modified offer with BOD support.
The AC/TRZ transaction is illustrative of some of the logistics, conditions, timing, and process involved. However, in that case all of the work was done by the parties confidentially prior to announcing an agreement with BOD support (twice).
The CHR BOD may already know what their response will be to the unsolicited conditional offer. However, they must exercise due diligence in order to protect themselves from shareholder challenge.
Due diligence = CHR will have to hire external advisors to review the offer and make recommendations. Given the unsolicited nature of the offer, that will take some time.
Unsolicited offer = hostile takeover... I’m sure CHR management is fighting for their lives to keep the vultures at bay, for everyone at CHR/Jazz I hope they succeed.
"Stand-by, I'm inverted"
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
The shareholder rights plan isn’t a guarantee of no hostile takeovers. It’s a plan in the event of hostile take over, shareholders have a right to purchase shares at a significant discount, making unwanted takeovers more expensive, not impossible.
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Re: Chorus to be sold ?
you dont have too. if there is one list then you can just bid on a dash or rj. the advantages here outweigh anything else. Opportunity to negotiate a better contract list wide.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
Except for the $, the Jazz contract is superior in many ways.CPT.HarshColdReality wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:47 pmyou dont have too. if there is one list then you can just bid on a dash or rj. the advantages here outweigh anything else. Opportunity to negotiate a better contract list wide.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
Shhhh... All the old AC farts will get mad if you mention that47north wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:57 pmExcept for the $, the Jazz contract is superior in many ways.CPT.HarshColdReality wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:47 pmyou dont have too. if there is one list then you can just bid on a dash or rj. the advantages here outweigh anything else. Opportunity to negotiate a better contract list wide.
I completely agree. Everything is better.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
Not necessarily. What if they were offering $8 a share?
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
1.3 billion valuation? I find it extremely hard to see anyone willing to pay that much for Chorus in this current climate.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
I doubt they will pay a 300%+ premium on the closing price prior to the announcement on friday...
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
Thus far, the market is pricing in a 30% increase over the prior 50 day average closing price.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
That is the market placing a bet. Nothing more. Nothing less.
I could give you a long dissertation on valuation based on net present value of future earnings adjusted for risk but clearly there is no certainty on earnings in this environment, irrespective of the AC CPA, the leasing division, Voyageur, or the MRO division.
Something is worth what somebody else is willing to pay for it.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
It is worth about $8 a share. The market is depressed, and everyone that watches Chorus has a valuation between $4 and $6. If someone is trying to buy it out, they would have to convince all the shareholders that their offer is superior to just waiting for the market to return. Personally, I would not sell at anything under $6.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
It’s not worth $8/share, that was the pre-pandemic value before there was a big risk of CPA renegotiation with less favourable terms. Right now I can buy Chorus stock for a little over $3/ share from someone willing to sell it for that price which is how much the stock is worth.truedude wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:46 amIt is worth about $8 a share. The market is depressed, and everyone that watches Chorus has a valuation between $4 and $6. If someone is trying to buy it out, they would have to convince all the shareholders that their offer is superior to just waiting for the market to return. Personally, I would not sell at anything under $6.
YOUR perceived value of a stock is much different than what a stock is actually worth.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
Yes, you can buy stock for $3. That isn't in dispute. The question is, how much stock can you buy for $3. There is a strong likely hood that the same stock is being traded again and again.fish4life wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:35 pmIt’s not worth $8/share, that was the pre-pandemic value before there was a big risk of CPA renegotiation with less favourable terms. Right now I can buy Chorus stock for a little over $3/ share from someone willing to sell it for that price which is how much the stock is worth.truedude wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:46 amIt is worth about $8 a share. The market is depressed, and everyone that watches Chorus has a valuation between $4 and $6. If someone is trying to buy it out, they would have to convince all the shareholders that their offer is superior to just waiting for the market to return. Personally, I would not sell at anything under $6.
YOUR perceived value of a stock is much different than what a stock is actually worth.
There isn't going to be a huge change in the CPA, as it is pretty much cost neutral now. The revenue from it is from the leases Chorus holds on the airplanes. That is the value. And chorus doesn't hold the lease on all the airplanes. You need to find the price in which the majority of shareholders are prepared to sell at, not the same stock that day traders continuously recycle.
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
Yep, I’m hanging on to my shares for a return to 7ish, would consider 6 but for certain less than that I’ll ride them to 0truedude wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:01 pmYes, you can buy stock for $3. That isn't in dispute. The question is, how much stock can you buy for $3. There is a strong likely hood that the same stock is being traded again and again.fish4life wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:35 pmIt’s not worth $8/share, that was the pre-pandemic value before there was a big risk of CPA renegotiation with less favourable terms. Right now I can buy Chorus stock for a little over $3/ share from someone willing to sell it for that price which is how much the stock is worth.truedude wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:46 am
It is worth about $8 a share. The market is depressed, and everyone that watches Chorus has a valuation between $4 and $6. If someone is trying to buy it out, they would have to convince all the shareholders that their offer is superior to just waiting for the market to return. Personally, I would not sell at anything under $6.
YOUR perceived value of a stock is much different than what a stock is actually worth.
There isn't going to be a huge change in the CPA, as it is pretty much cost neutral now. The revenue from it is from the leases Chorus holds on the airplanes. That is the value. And chorus doesn't hold the lease on all the airplanes. You need to find the price in which the majority of shareholders are prepared to sell at, not the same stock that day traders continuously recycle.
"Stand-by, I'm inverted"
Re: Chorus to be sold ?
Air Canada may get to a point where they stop paying chorus for a few months and then go through CCAA at which point Chorus will most likely not get paid for those months and the CPA could be up for renegotiation as a reduced rate with much less aircraft. That is one risk being priced into the stock thus reducing its value.