Equipment bid

[AA123455]

TRZ just announced Q4 2020 financial results and does not forecast recovery to pre-pandemic levels prior to 2023. And yes - they are well aware of the arrival of the vaccine (even referred to it in the press release). Also indicate that 2021 operations and revenue will continue to be dramatically affected by COVID related travel issues.

So how many airline CEO’s have to say it before it becomes a credible forecast?

Economists and weathermen are the only professions that can be consistently wrong, and still have a job lol.

That’s the thing about the future, no one can predict it.

What if the business community zooms itself out of the need to no longer take business trips, and people are to poor to afford vacations, and pax volumes don’t recover until mid 2040’s?

Or what if rainbows break out all over the world and Q3 of 2021 surpasses 2019 pax volumes and AC upgrades go to 6 months again?

[Inverted2]

TRZ just announced Q4 2020 financial results and does not forecast recovery to pre-pandemic levels prior to 2023. And yes - they are well aware of the arrival of the vaccine (even referred to it in the press release). Also indicate that 2021 operations and revenue will continue to be dramatically affected by COVID related travel issues.

So how many airline CEO’s have to say it before it becomes a credible forecast?

Economists and weathermen are the only professions that can be consistently wrong, and still have a job lol.

That’s the thing about the future, no one can predict it.

What if the business community zooms itself out of the need to no longer take business trips, and people are to poor to afford vacations, and pax volumes don’t recover until mid 2040’s?

Or what if rainbows break out all over the world and Q3 of 2021 surpasses 2019 pax volumes and AC upgrades go to 6 months again?

The bold part of what you said is correct and happening unfortunately. All those people who lost their jobs and businesses won’t be traveling much for the next few years. They’ll be hoping to keep the bills paid and food on the table.

[Canoehead]

Why do people take this crap for gospel? I work for Jazz. Nobody in any position of authority from Jazz or AC has offically confirmed any of this. Obviously it is stressful being out of work (I bought a house and had a kid shortly before being laid off, so I know the pain). However it is no use whatsoever to get all worked up about speculation from people who have nothing to do with the recovery plan. Stick with the facts- Vaccines are already being distributed. Potential government bailouts. Air Canada does have a recovery plan. Americans are saying 70% vaccinated by May. Canadians similiar story by August.

Try not to get worked up about unfounded speculation.

FYI rudder has been around Jazz and it's predecessors for almost 40 years, and has rarely been wrong on much in my 15 years here. Not saying what he says is gospel- but as he mentioned, prepare to be disappointed.

The situation is dire, vaccine or not.

[coastdog13]

Why do people take this crap for gospel? I work for Jazz. Nobody in any position of authority from Jazz or AC has offically confirmed any of this. Obviously it is stressful being out of work (I bought a house and had a kid shortly before being laid off, so I know the pain). However it is no use whatsoever to get all worked up about speculation from people who have nothing to do with the recovery plan. Stick with the facts- Vaccines are already being distributed. Potential government bailouts. Air Canada does have a recovery plan. Americans are saying 70% vaccinated by May. Canadians similiar story by August.

Try not to get worked up about unfounded speculation.

FYI rudder has been around Jazz and it's predecessors for almost 40 years, and has rarely been wrong on much in my 15 years here. Not saying what he says is gospel- but as he mentioned, prepare to be disappointed.

The situation is dire, vaccine or not.

I will not be dissappointed because I dont have any expectations. I never speculated, and never will speculate (positively or negatively).

[Splash]

Why do people take this crap for gospel? I work for Jazz. Nobody in any position of authority from Jazz or AC has offically confirmed any of this. Obviously it is stressful being out of work (I bought a house and had a kid shortly before being laid off, so I know the pain). However it is no use whatsoever to get all worked up about speculation from people who have nothing to do with the recovery plan. Stick with the facts- Vaccines are already being distributed. Potential government bailouts. Air Canada does have a recovery plan. Americans are saying 70% vaccinated by May. Canadians similiar story by August.

Try not to get worked up about unfounded speculation.

FYI rudder has been around Jazz and it's predecessors for almost 40 years, and has rarely been wrong on much in my 15 years here. Not saying what he says is gospel- but as he mentioned, prepare to be disappointed.

The situation is dire, vaccine or not.

I will not be dissappointed because I dont have any expectations. I never speculated, and never will speculate (positively or negatively).

If people didn't speculate on this forum, it would become rather boring. On the other hand, if you're looking for facts, this may not be the best venue.

[coastdog13]

FYI rudder has been around Jazz and it's predecessors for almost 40 years, and has rarely been wrong on much in my 15 years here. Not saying what he says is gospel- but as he mentioned, prepare to be disappointed.

The situation is dire, vaccine or not.

I will not be dissappointed because I dont have any expectations. I never speculated, and never will speculate (positively or negatively).

If people didn't speculate on this forum, it would become rather boring. On the other hand, if you're looking for facts, this may not be the best venue.

Yup seems fair

[CPT.HarshColdReality]

Thank you all for the comments and answers to my post.

For my part, in all my social circles, everyone is employed, even pilot friends in non-aviation jobs. Everyone is ready to book a holiday as soon as the quarantine is lifted. Talk to your circles. This will be the best way to get a feel for the vibes out there. Ppl are sick and tired of lockdowns and want to travel and have the money to do so.

I think the biggest challenge will be the logistics of the re-training. This is where I forecast the bottlenecks to happens. I see recalls starting summer 2021 but huge training problems.

How many can we train a month? On all types? Nationwide?

[flyingcanuck]

I think peak hiring a year or two ago was like 2 classes of 30 a month, the sims were always packed. Maybe more than that assuming it wouldn't be a full month of training

[Big Pistons Forever]

For my part, in all my social circles, everyone is employed, even pilot friends in non-aviation jobs. Everyone is ready to book a holiday as soon as the quarantine is lifted. Talk to your circles. This will be the best way to get a feel for the vibes out there. Ppl are sick and tired of lockdowns and want to travel and have the money to do so.

Call me crazy but I think the turn around is going to be almost as fast as the downturn. I think there will be some trigger event like a bunch of resorts offering blow out deals just as there is a collective belief that COVID is in the rearview, that will trigger an explosion of pent up demand. My guess and worth every penny you paid for it, is this will happen in early spring of 2022.

Popular media always over reacts, so right now it is all gloom and doom, as soon as the pendulum turns they will over react in the other direction and people will pile on airplanes because the media says COVID is over.

My other fearless projection is that the pilot shortage will come back "bigly" in late 2022. There has been a un-forecasted wave of early retirements at the top and I think a lot of the young zero to hero pilots who went straight from a buck 72 to a Q400 or RJ are not coming back. They will be established in a new career and are not interested in being a low seniority FO again.

The No 1 issue for Canada right now is IMO, not the airlines future, it is the future of the Air Traffic System. Nav Canada was just able to keep up with pre COVID traffic levels because of ACC and major tower airport controllers working crazy amounts of overtime. With no money coming in and no targeted government support; and total spending that is almost 75 % pure salary, they are starting to cut major muscle groups. It will take literally years to rebuild what has been cut. Stand by for crazy delays in getting a slot time, and asking for IFR training slots or VFR flight following ? UMM the answer will be a hearty PFO every time.

[BTD]

Sweet......block growth....

[KenoraPilot]

Sweet......block growth....

cant wait

[Inverted2]

I haven't heard the work block growth since about February....

[Rowdy]

Highly unlikely there will be an equipment bid.My opinion is that Both AC and CHR are keeping staffing where its at currently within Jazz for when things start to swing around. It'll happen quickly when it does I'd imagine. The costs are significant and I don't think either the company nor the union want to see it happen. Quite the cluster if it did...

Everyone I talk to (outside of aviation) has an itch to travel, vacation and see friends and family as a result of this. ALSO, most of the middle class folk I know have been spending considerably less while cooped up at home. More cash for the eventual Holiday. I've also had discussions with many friends that are in that middle management/sales/etc environment that travel frequently for work. They too foresee a return to the skies as so many meetings and consults simply don't work via ZOOM etc.

Now think, many other airlines may be caught with their pants down if it does change quickly. Zero hiring, Many moving on in life after a furlough, training backups etc. Not to mention tons of would be and new Cpl's won't exist as there hasn't been a ton of ab initio and many choosing not to enter such a volatile career as a result of this.

I won't get political, however it wouldn't take much to see a change in leadership in this country. That could move us towards a spooling up of our economy and lessening of restrictions etc.

We also have a vaccine, greater understanding of the virus and quick/rapid testing that should facilitate a return to travel.

Then again, We could all believe the doom and gloom thats constantly being shoved down our throat....

[47north]

Highly unlikely there will be an equipment bid.My opinion is that Both AC and CHR are keeping staffing where its at currently within Jazz for when things start to swing around. It'll happen quickly when it does I'd imagine. The costs are significant and I don't think either the company nor the union want to see it happen. Quite the cluster if it did...

Everyone I talk to (outside of aviation) has an itch to travel, vacation and see friends and family as a result of this. ALSO, most of the middle class folk I know have been spending considerably less while cooped up at home. More cash for the eventual Holiday. I've also had discussions with many friends that are in that middle management/sales/etc environment that travel frequently for work. They too foresee a return to the skies as so many meetings and consults simply don't work via ZOOM etc.

Now think, many other airlines may be caught with their pants down if it does change quickly. Zero hiring, Many moving on in life after a furlough, training backups etc. Not to mention tons of would be and new Cpl's won't exist as there hasn't been a ton of ab initio and many choosing not to enter such a volatile career as a result of this.

I won't get political, however it wouldn't take much to see a change in leadership in this country. That could move us towards a spooling up of our economy and lessening of restrictions etc.

We also have a vaccine, greater understanding of the virus and quick/rapid testing that should facilitate a return to travel.

Then again, We could all believe the doom and gloom thats constantly being shoved down our throat....

I agree. People are being too pessimistic about the second half of 2021. It's going to be a frenzy what's people can move about freely and travel.

[Rowdy]

Summer 2021 is going to be insanity in my honest opinion. But I guess we'll see. Hopefully I'm not wrong!

[Big Pistons Forever]

Summer 2021 is going to be insanity in my honest opinion. But I guess we'll see. Hopefully I'm not wrong!

Most of the vaccine roll out predictions don't predict widespread world wide inoculations until the end of 2021. Sadly I suspect summer 2021 is a write off but I think Christmas 2021 VFR travel is going to be insane and Spring 2022 warm weather holiday destinations are going to be packed.

[Splash]

Summer 2021 is going to be insanity in my honest opinion. But I guess we'll see. Hopefully I'm not wrong!

Most of the vaccine roll out predictions don't predict widespread world wide inoculations until the end of 2021. Sadly I suspect summer 2021 is a write off but I think Christmas 2021 VFR travel is going to be insane and Spring 2022 warm weather holiday destinations are going to be packed.

It's likely citizens of first-world industrialized countries will have the opportunity to be the first vaccinated as they have purchased multiple amounts of vaccine and all the initial production that exceeds their respective populations. Those from developing and third-world countries will likely not see a roll-out of vaccine until the later part of 2021, or never in the worst case scenario as they are too poor. Be thankful for where you live.

[seriousflyer]

So is there a system wide bid in January or not ?

[mbav8r]

So is there a system wide bid in January or not ?

Historically, we don’t usually find out until just before or even after the date required in the contract, I believe it is January 15.
Edit: January 15 is the date, caveat being, *if* a bid is required, the company will post it by...
This year could be different as the potential for disruption is there, in my opinion, no bid would be ideal for the current excess Captains.
If the forecast is for increased summer flying beyond 50% of 2019, maybe some recalls, this is however very unlikely, maybe the fall bid will be more optimistic.

[flyingcanuck]

So is there a system wide bid in January or not ?

Historically, we don’t usually find out until just before or even after the date required in the contract, I believe it is January 15.
Edit: January 15 is the date, caveat being, *if* a bid is required, the company will post it by...
This year could be different as the potential for disruption is there, in my opinion, no bid would be ideal for the current excess Captains.
If the forecast is for increased summer flying beyond 50% of 2019, maybe some recalls, this is however very unlikely, maybe the fall bid will be more optimistic.

Probably get an email saying the union has agreed to move that date to much later in the year or something like that. Id be surprised if they guaranteed there would NOT be one, I assume they'll just keep pushing it back