Tower closure predictions?

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holdGME
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Tower closure predictions?

Post by holdGME »

Hi all,


With so much happening with the company changes, does anyone have any early predictions as to which towers of the 7 under review will be successful and close/downgrade?

-Fort McMurray
-Prince George
-Regina
-Sault Ste Marie
-St Jean
-Whitehorse
-Windsor



Just looking for discussion.

Thanks
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Last edited by holdGME on Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
wordstwice
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by wordstwice »

I think they will all close. I have no evidence to support this, just my gut feeling that Nav Canada made this decision before they even started this process.
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holdGME
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by holdGME »

wordstwice wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:44 pm I think they will all close. I have no evidence to support this, just my gut feeling that Nav Canada made this decision before they even started this process.

I’m pretty sure they still have to be approved and finalized by Transport Canada. Not solely Nav Canada’s decision (from what I understand).
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Scuderia
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by Scuderia »

NAV CANADA's level of service policy could inform some predictions.
levelofservice.jpg
levelofservice.jpg (87.81 KiB) Viewed 8126 times
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holdGME
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by holdGME »

Scuderia wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:23 pm NAV CANADA's level of service policy could inform some predictions.

levelofservice.jpg
Thanks I’ve never seen this. I don’t know the towers movements but I can probably check online somewhere.
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fish4life
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by fish4life »

Airports like Thompson are as busy as most of these if not more so when it comes to commercial aircraft movements and it functions well. The wildcard is the VFR weekend warriors in some of these places and trying to integrate them into a successful ifr flow.
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kevenv
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by kevenv »

Has there ever been a case of a LOS review where a unit was not downgraded or closed? Seems to me this process is a lot like the HIRA.
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Kjs
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by Kjs »

kevenv wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:12 am Has there ever been a case of a LOS review where a unit was not downgraded or closed? Seems to me this process is a lot like the HIRA.
I believe Windsor underwent an LOS review in the late 90's that was unsuccessful and another in the 2000's that started but was never officially completed. Not sure about the others.
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kevenv
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by kevenv »

Kjs wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:49 pm
kevenv wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:12 am Has there ever been a case of a LOS review where a unit was not downgraded or closed? Seems to me this process is a lot like the HIRA.
I believe Windsor underwent an LOS review in the late 90's that was unsuccessful and another in the 2000's that started but was never officially completed. Not sure about the others.
I always thought Windsor was there because of it's proximity to Detroit (and I had heard at the behest of the FAA).
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DHC-1 Jockey
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by DHC-1 Jockey »

holdGME wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:22 pm Thanks I’ve never seen this. I don’t know the towers movements but I can probably check online somewhere.
Here ya go. Windsor actually went from 31,000 movements in 2014 to almost 43,000 in 2018. The Sault dropped from 65,000 to 56,000.

It's funny that Gatineau and Sudbury had almost 44,000 and trending upward and it's only an FSS.

Towers:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en ... 2C20180101

FSS:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en ... 2C20180101
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holdGME
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by holdGME »

fish4life wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 5:01 am Airports like Thompson are as busy as most of these if not more so when it comes to commercial aircraft movements and it functions well. The wildcard is the VFR weekend warriors in some of these places and trying to integrate them into a successful ifr flow.
What airport is that?
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holdGME
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by holdGME »

DHC-1 Jockey wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:45 pm
holdGME wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:22 pm Thanks I’ve never seen this. I don’t know the towers movements but I can probably check online somewhere.
Here ya go. Windsor actually went from 31,000 movements in 2014 to almost 43,000 in 2018. The Sault dropped from 65,000 to 56,000.

It's funny that Gatineau and Sudbury had almost 44,000 and trending upward and it's only an FSS.

Towers:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en ... 2C20180101

FSS:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en ... 2C20180101


Thanks, I can see a lot of ATC towers changing to AAS with the current state of the company but I am on the FSS side of the world.
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linecrew
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by linecrew »

Kjs wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:49 pm
kevenv wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 10:12 am Has there ever been a case of a LOS review where a unit was not downgraded or closed? Seems to me this process is a lot like the HIRA.
I believe Windsor underwent an LOS review in the late 90's that was unsuccessful and another in the 2000's that started but was never officially completed. Not sure about the others.
I don't think saying an LOS review was "unsuccessful" is not really correct as the goal is not to close things down. If anything it's to stop hemorrhaging money. It's my understanding that NAV CANADA is obligated under CARs 806 to assess the level of service at a facility for safety but also for efficiency. According to CARs 806.03 aeronautical studies may result in an increase in level of service based on the findings. I'm sure that outside of safety they also assess for cost-benefit reasons. This translates to how the fees they collect from us are allocated. With traffic volumes a fraction of what they were prior to the pandemic, and no sign of when they will go up again, it makes sense that they would close facilities that are now over equipped. The question is, will they do a follow-up study once volumes pick up in (I'm only guessing) 3 to 5 years from now and re-instate said facilities. They are under CARS obligation to do it so I can only assume they will.
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thenoflyzone
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by thenoflyzone »

2019 movement numbers. (some of these numbers are from StatsCan, the others are from the LOS review documents on navcanada.ca)

YXY - 47,557
YQR - 50,700
YQG - 44,000
YXS - 41,600
YMM - 44,635
YAM - 57,376
YJN - 45,000

If these ATC towers close, most of these should transfer to FSS service.

Which begs the question. How much money will NavCan really save here? Going from ATC-1 or 2 payscale to top (or close to top) FSS pay.
holdGME wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:56 pm

I’m pretty sure they still have to be approved and finalized by Transport Canada. Not solely Nav Canada’s decision (from what I understand).
NavCan is subject to the ANS atc of 1996.

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/act ... ml#h-80985

(NavCan = "Corporation" in the document.)

In it, we can read the following:
Changing Services and Closing Facilities

Marginal note:Corporation may make changes

14 The Corporation may, in accordance with this Act but subject to the provisions of the Aeronautics Act and of any regulations made under that Act that relate to aviation safety or the safety of the public,

(a) introduce or increase civil air navigation services;

(b) terminate or reduce civil air navigation services; and

(c) close or relocate facilities used by it in connection with civil air navigation services.
Basically, it means they can close the towers, but the governor in Council may decide to keep it open based on aviation safety and other regulatory powers it has, according to the Aeronautics Atc of 1985.

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/A-2/
General Regulatory Powers
Marginal note:Regulations respecting aeronautics

4.9 The Governor in Council may make regulations respecting aeronautics and, without restricting the generality of the foregoing, may make regulations respecting

...

(e) activities at aerodromes and the location, inspection, certification, registration, licensing and operation of aerodromes;
I think we can all agree that NavCan will most likely determine that these towers should close. The million dollar question is, will the GoC intervene?

That, I don't know.
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DHC-1 Jockey
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by DHC-1 Jockey »

Why isn't Hamilton (YHM) on the LOS list? They haven't had over 40,000 movements since 2010, and those movements are spread over a 24 hour period (YHM is open 24 hours).

Sudbury (YSB) has just as many movements, but the vast majority are during 0600-2200, so there's just as many movements as YHM but over a much more compressed timeframe.

I always wondered why YHM had a tower and YSB doesn't (yes I know the backstory of why YSB lost the tower in the first place years ago). Having flown into both airports a lot over the past few years, I'd definitely say YSB needs a tower and YHM could do without. Even as a tower trainee in SW Ontario for 3 years myself, I don't see why YHM needs one, unless it's specifically for the heavy IFR traffic in and out.
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thenoflyzone
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by thenoflyzone »

DHC-1 Jockey wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:10 pm Why isn't Hamilton (YHM) on the LOS list? They haven't had over 40,000 movements since 2010, and those movements are spread over a 24 hour period (YHM is open 24 hours).

Sudbury (YSB) has just as many movements, but the vast majority are during 0600-2200, so there's just as many movements as YHM but over a much more compressed timeframe.

I always wondered why YHM had a tower and YSB doesn't (yes I know the backstory of why YSB lost the tower in the first place years ago). Having flown into both airports a lot over the past few years, I'd definitely say YSB needs a tower and YHM could do without. Even as a tower trainee in SW Ontario for 3 years myself, I don't see why YHM needs one, unless it's specifically for the heavy IFR traffic in and out.
Don’t have the numbers in front of me, but YHM probably has more commercial scheduled flights. Having more jets vs props does help as well.
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A346Dude
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by A346Dude »

DHC-1 Jockey wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:10 pm Why isn't Hamilton (YHM) on the LOS list? They haven't had over 40,000 movements since 2010, and those movements are spread over a 24 hour period (YHM is open 24 hours).

Sudbury (YSB) has just as many movements, but the vast majority are during 0600-2200, so there's just as many movements as YHM but over a much more compressed timeframe.

I always wondered why YHM had a tower and YSB doesn't (yes I know the backstory of why YSB lost the tower in the first place years ago). Having flown into both airports a lot over the past few years, I'd definitely say YSB needs a tower and YHM could do without. Even as a tower trainee in SW Ontario for 3 years myself, I don't see why YHM needs one, unless it's specifically for the heavy IFR traffic in and out.
Daily IFR bashes and a poor airport layout (lack of taxiways, backtracks). I would hazard a guess that multiple heavy aircraft would take 10+ minute delays every night without a tower, and nose-to-nose taxi conflicts on 06/24 would be common. It would impact the entire Canadian cargo network.
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by DHC-1 Jockey »

Thanks for the info!
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linecrew
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by linecrew »

DHC-1 Jockey wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:10 pm Why isn't Hamilton (YHM) on the LOS list? They haven't had over 40,000 movements since 2010, and those movements are spread over a 24 hour period (YHM is open 24 hours).
I thought the same thing. Maybe it's coming later once they get the other studies and closures sorted. Mirabel went to an all FSS service for a few years but to my understanding once the traffic picked up during the day due to flight training it justified bring back the tower unit during the day.

Which brings up a point. Yes, they are closing towers because of the huge downturn in traffic but if the volumes go back up, then they would be reinstated I imagine.
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thenoflyzone
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Re: Tower closure predictions?

Post by thenoflyzone »

A346Dude wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:56 am

Daily IFR bashes and a poor airport layout (lack of taxiways, backtracks). I would hazard a guess that multiple heavy aircraft would take 10+ minute delays every night without a tower, and nose-to-nose taxi conflicts on 06/24 would be common. It would impact the entire Canadian cargo network.
While I agree the airport layout of YHM and its traffic mix is not conducive to FSS only service (I think it's high time they build a full length parallel taxiway), there are ways to mitigate the loss of ATC service, while keeping things moving safely.

One way to achieve this is by incorporating "one way" taxiways in the publications. When YMX tower closed back in 2008, and FSS took over, they made TWY I eastbound only, and TWY J westbound only, in order to avoid head-on conflicts. This info is published on the aerodrome chart and in the CFS. (in fact, its still there, for when FSS takes over during mids)

They could do something similar in YHM. In a runway 12 operation, taxiway C could be northbound only (for departures), and landing traffic would exit via runway 24, which would be used as a southbound taxiway only, thus avoiding backtracks and head on conflicts. Over near the apron, TWY B and A would be eastbound only taxiways as well. This way, all pushbacks on the apron would face east, and there wouldn't be any head on conflicts on the apron either. When you reverse the flow to runway 30, you can simply reverse the flow of all taxiways/runways.

It's not ideal, I'll give you that, but it can be done. YMX is a perfect example. Massive airport, main cargo carrier airport for Montreal, a single in/out taxiway leading to the cargo apron, a CATII runway (same as YHM), and they decided to close the tower back in 2008. Hope it doesn't happen at YHM, but if it does, they'll find a way to mitigate the situation.

Oh and btw, it's not like YHM is MEM or anything. It's only a cargojet hub. Nothing more. YYZ, YVR, YUL all move more cargo than YHM. YYC and YMX aren't too far behind YHM either. Canada's cargo would still be delivered even if YHM doesn't have a control tower.

2019 Total cargo tonnage by airport. StatsCan

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en ... 2310025401

YYZ - 465,400 t
YVR - 285,100 t
YUL - 121,700 t
YHM - 97,900 t
YYC - 88,900 t
YMX - 83,500 t (*Moved all that cargo with no control tower)
YWG - 58,200 t
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