Investing strategies for the commercial pilot?

[YYZSaabGuy]

I choose to follow this guy. Worth .....$85 billion or so. Very out of favour these days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

I'm pretty sure Buffett isn't "very out of favor" with much of anybody these days. And yes, energy and materials stocks have been good inflation hedges in the past. In the event we see some sustained price increases in the coming months (i.e. other than temporary pressures due to base effect), they'll help out - in fact, I own a bunch myself.

My point was that successfully and consistently predicting economic trends is difficult, and a lot of very bright people are less concerned about inflation trends than a lot of other very bright people - as I pointed out in a previous thread, you could lay all the economists in the world end to end and they still wouldn't reach a conclusion. You seem to have a very firm opinion on the subject ("Inflation is coming....in a big way"), which is fine, but at this point it's only your opinion. Others may hold different views, which doesn't in and of itself make them idiots, contrary to one of your earlier posts.

I'll also point out, for anybody still following this thread, that inflation is only one of many risks faced by stocks in the normal course. The trick is to understand where we are in the cycle and to manage those risks, and then to make sure you're properly compensated for risks you can't mitigate. And importantly, if you want to really understand this stuff, do your own research, rather than relying on a bunch of anonymous folks on an aviation forum.

[rookiepilot]

I choose to follow this guy. Worth .....$85 billion or so. Very out of favour these days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

I'm pretty sure Buffett isn't "very out of favor" with much of anybody these days.

He sure is way out of favor, just like at other important inflection points.

[YYZSaabGuy]

I choose to follow this guy. Worth .....$85 billion or so. Very out of favour these days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

I'm pretty sure Buffett isn't "very out of favor" with much of anybody these days.

He sure is way out of favor, just like at other important inflection points.

Source?

[rookiepilot]

I'm pretty sure Buffett isn't "very out of favor" with much of anybody these days.

He sure is way out of favor, just like at other important inflection points.

Source?

https://www.google.ca/

Gee, do I need to provide a source that the world isn't flat, too? It just...is what it is. Obvious.

Oh, and I'm not an economist.

Economists -- with the best formal education money can buy -- have a not impressive record of predicting anything. Academics absolutely SUCK in this regard, for a whole variety of reasons I'm too lazy to write about, and why we regularly have a nice, fun financial crisis.

That is why they are economists and not traders. But I doubt you'll get this either.

[Dh8Classic]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

Isn't that the guy who invested in airlines.

[rookiepilot]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett

What's he doing? Buying energy and materials stocks......Last I looked, those are inflationary sectors.

Isn't that the guy who invested in airlines.

He did, blew them out at a loss. Probably a good move. I like AC only because of AT deal and WJ is a walking disaster movie. Even then I'm not totally sure.

Long a lot of energy now and I'm with him there.

[Adam Oke]

As a commercial pilot, you are likely going to lose your job at one point. So buffers are key.

I won't get into the particulars of my opinion on investing except for the statement that "Smooth is slow, and slow is fast". There is no get rich fast scheme and I highly recommend researching the Canadian Couch Potato Portfolio. For your average joe, you will out perform every time with this brain-less approach.

As for recession-proofing yourself...my advice is not so much in investments, but so much as cash in hand, no debt, and living within your means. If you hold a mortgage or any debt; when you buy a coffee at Tim Horton's, it is with borrowed money and you are paying interest on that coffee. Let that sink in.

I'm back to working in aerial application and my salary is weather dependant. I could make 30k in the season or I could make ~90k. Boom or bust, and it seemed like there was and is little in between. I learned rather quickly to save up a surplus of cash and consider it as spent money for the rest of the year up until the next season rolled around. It is such a simplistic and seemingly stupid method, but pay yourself first, chop up every paycheque as if it were spent money in the "Gail Vaz-Oxlade Jar Method", and live within your means and you will live a very financially stress free life.

At the end of the day ALWAYS pay yourself first. No one will take care of your except for yourself, so make sure you do....every pay cheque!

[YYZSaabGuy]

He sure is way out of favor, just like at other important inflection points.

Source?

https://www.google.ca/

Gee, do I need to provide a source that the world isn't flat, too? It just...is what it is. Obvious.

Oh, and I'm not an economist.

Economists -- with the best formal education money can buy -- have a not impressive record of predicting anything. Academics absolutely SUCK in this regard, for a whole variety of reasons I'm too lazy to write about, and why we regularly have a nice, fun financial crisis.

That is why they are economists and not traders. But I doubt you'll get this either.

Thanks, Rookie, for confirming once again that you like to make shit up!

Fully agree with you that economists have a terrible track record making reliable forecasts. That's OK, because nobody else does a better job at it, either, including you and your day trading buddies. (Ever hear of EMH?). If you'd like to broaden your narrow horizons, try studying a guy like Howard Marks: you don't need to be able to forecast what the market's going to do - you just need to be able to figure out where you are in the cycle.

BTW, still not obvious to me that Buffett is out of favour with anybody - except maybe you. But hey, since you claim to be following the man, you might find this helpful: https://www.investopedia.com/financial- ... es-by.aspx. Pay particular attention to Rule #1 and Rule #2 (although in your case I guess this is a bit late?).

[rookiepilot]

Source?

https://www.google.ca/

Gee, do I need to provide a source that the world isn't flat, too? It just...is what it is. Obvious.

Oh, and I'm not an economist.

Economists -- with the best formal education money can buy -- have a not impressive record of predicting anything. Academics absolutely SUCK in this regard, for a whole variety of reasons I'm too lazy to write about, and why we regularly have a nice, fun financial crisis.

That is why they are economists and not traders. But I doubt you'll get this either.

Thanks, Rookie, for confirming once again that you like to make shit up!

Fully agree with you that economists have a terrible track record making reliable forecasts. That's OK, because nobody else does a better job at it, either, including you and your day trading buddies. (Ever hear of EMH?). If you'd like to broaden your narrow horizons, try studying a guy like Howard Marks: you don't need to be able to forecast what the market's going to do - you just need to be able to figure out where you are in the cycle.

BTW, still not obvious to me that Buffett is out of favour with anybody - except maybe you. But hey, since you claim to be following the man, you might find this helpful: https://www.investopedia.com/financial- ... es-by.aspx. Pay particular attention to Rule #1 and Rule #2 (although in your case I guess this is a bit late?).

YYZ.

Last I looked, I certainly have not trolled you about your commercial flying career.

I am now quite done with your rude and arrogant behavior and personal attacks.

I am not a first officer you can browbeat. I won't tolerate it.

Don't agree with me? Fine. That is your right. Be silent if you cannot respond respectfully.

I have commented here on economics not to sell a thing, but to encourage a cautious approach.

Keep pushing and perhaps you'll earn yourself a holiday. Clear?

Enough.

[YYZSaabGuy]

YYZ.

Last I looked, I certainly have not trolled you about your commercial flying career.

I am now quite done with your rude and arrogant behavior and personal attacks.

I am not a first officer you can browbeat. I won't tolerate it.

Don't agree with me? Fine. That is your right. Be silent if you cannot respond respectfully.

I have commented here on economics not to sell a thing, but to encourage a cautious approach.

Keep pushing and perhaps you'll earn yourself a holiday. Clear?

Enough.

Touch a nerve there, Rookie? Feeling a bit fragile this morning?

It's endlessly fascinating to me that keyboard warriors like you are quick to bloviate relentlessly on here about their pet dislikes (personal financial planners and bank staff, economists, big business, stock brokers, anybody with a modicum of post-secondary education, BBD and SNC management, anybody who isn't self-employed or who hasn't in your opinion displayed the requisite degree of suffering while pulling themselves up by their own bootstraps, the "entitled" younger generation (ageism, Chuckles, ageism!)), and then scream bloody murder when they're called on it.

Oh, and then go back and delete a bunch of their more egregiously miserable posts once it's pointed out how - wait for it - rude and disrespectful they're being: http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopi ... 9&start=80.

Hypocritical, much?

If you don't like my posts, or if you find my tone disrespectful, then you should feel free to block me. And, as you like to say, that's not a request.

That said, in the interests of helping you cope with your new-found sensitivity, here's a further list of resources you might find helpful:

https://www.amazon.com/Emotionally-Stro ... 1533232601
https://www.postgraduateforum.com/forum ... skin/18357
https://www.webdesignerdepot.com/2012/0 ... criticism/
https://tinybuddha.com/blog/dealing-cri ... hick-skin/

As you love to say: Endorse!

Clear?

[rookiepilot]

YYZ.

Last I looked, I certainly have not trolled you about your commercial flying career.

I am now quite done with your rude and arrogant behavior and personal attacks.

I am not a first officer you can browbeat. I won't tolerate it.

Don't agree with me? Fine. That is your right. Be silent if you cannot respond respectfully.

I have commented here on economics not to sell a thing, but to encourage a cautious approach.

Keep pushing and perhaps you'll earn yourself a holiday. Clear?

Enough.

Touch a nerve there, Rookie? Feeling a bit fragile this morning?

It's endlessly fascinating to me that keyboard warriors like you are quick to bloviate relentlessly on here about their pet dislikes (personal financial planners and bank staff, economists, big business, stock brokers, anybody with a modicum of post-secondary education, BBD and SNC management, anybody who isn't self-employed or who hasn't in your opinion displayed the requisite degree of suffering while pulling themselves up by their own bootstraps, the "entitled" younger generation (ageism, Chuckles, ageism!)), and then scream bloody murder when they're called on it.

Oh, and then go back and delete a bunch of their more egregiously miserable posts once it's pointed out how - wait for it - rude and disrespectful they're being: http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopi ... 9&start=80.

Hypocritical, much?

If you don't like my posts, or if you find my tone disrespectful, then you should feel free to block me. And, as you like to say, that's not a request.

That said, in the interests of helping you cope with your new-found sensitivity, here's a further list of resources you might find helpful:

https://www.amazon.com/Emotionally-Stro ... 1533232601
https://www.postgraduateforum.com/forum ... skin/18357
https://www.webdesignerdepot.com/2012/0 ... criticism/
https://tinybuddha.com/blog/dealing-cri ... hick-skin/

As you love to say: Endorse!

Clear?

This is Av Canada. Opinions on a wide variety of subjects are expressed by many on a daily basis.

What you are doing sir is personal abuse, attacking not only my views, but who I am as an individual. It's abusive, right here, right now, and it's now been reported to the Mods.

[North Shore]

YYZ, Rookie...turn it down a little, please. I'm sure that if we were non-socially distanced over a beverage, y'all would be a little more restrained.

[rookiepilot]

I've been trading professionally for 23 years, when I quit my job to start, with virtually nothing.

I've made lot of mistakes, but I've been completely financially independent from this for 20 of those. I live modestly, but everything I have I paid cash for -- Toronto area House, Cars, and an airplane. Zero debt. I don't need to work anymore, but enjoy the challenge. It's interesting.

Like many here, I like to "give back" on a topic I have a lot of experience in.

I thought I had something to say on the topic of risk and investing, but It seems it's a free fire zone from personal attacks.

Frankly I don't need this sh-t. I really don't.

[Ash Ketchum]

I find it hard to invest as a commercial pilot especially in the first decade of the career as I am in. Between the high student debt, low pay, and furloughs it doesn't leave much on the table to be invested. I think flying is one of those careers where the big bucks come towards the end of a career similar to medicine.

[Kosiw]

Save your money, buy a passport to any other country and then invest in yourself by leaving to go anywhere but Canada. Best money you will ever spend. The culture of this forum should be enough to convince you of that already.

Best of luck.

FOD

Moderation in this forum is a disgrace to human decency.

NAILED IT !!

[digits_]

Save your money, buy a passport to any other country and then invest in yourself by leaving to go anywhere but Canada. Best money you will ever spend. The culture of this forum should be enough to convince you of that already.

NAILED IT !!

I think some people are suffering from the "grass is greener" syndrome.

[goldeneagle]

Thing is about buying AC stock, although I completely believe it will go back up to around $50 at some point,

Barring irrational exuberance in the markets, AC is unlikely to hit 50 again any time soon. During the pandemic the company diluted the shares tremendously with secondary offerings, and the balance sheet took a big hit when they used the aircraft they own as collateral on loans. The company has less unencumbered assets today, and a share today owns a much smaller piece of the company than it did just two years ago.

If the company returns to it's former value, the shares will be worth about 35 dollars each after accounting for all the new shares issued. For the shares to reach a 50 dollar valuation, revenues will have to get up to about 130% of 2019 revenues with the recently acquired credit facilities also cleared.

As far as an overall investing strategy for a pilot, absolutely should not be buying shares in airlines unless it's thu an employer subsidized program. The industry has always been cyclical, and always had ups and downs to the extremes, one should not have all the eggs in that basket. If your paycheque depends on the airlines, you should be putting the rest of the eggs into different industry baskets.

[Heavy Rayn]

Thing is about buying AC stock, although I completely believe it will go back up to around $50 at some point, is that unless you put in a lot the potential returns are small.

The most it's ever likely to do is triple from its current price.

I don't have much to invest so I'm going for the super speculative loooooong shots. Not putting in enough so that if I lose it I'm going to be moving into the local dumpster but enough so that there's maybe a chance of some good returns.

I see what you’re saying as far as the spec plays, they’re a bit more flashy especially with a smaller portfolio. But why not dollar cost average yourself into a position with blue chips?

I appreciate everyone’s insight here, even though the discussion fell off the rails a bit. A lot of good arguments. Very valid point GoldenEagle about investing in airline stocks. Makes complete sense to stay away from them. I do have AC in my portfolio currently. I’m thinking we’ll see $30 within the next year and a half and $35 and maybe even a high end of $40 within the next 3 years. After that I’ll get out of AC and stay away from airlines. Ash Ketchum you make a good point too, I’m a young flight instructor and I know the pay cheques aren’t the best.

My investment plan going forward is to take 10% of my pay cheque and invest. I plan on dollar cost averaging my way into a high dividend yield portfolio. Currently I hold Enbridge, looking to get into Telus, Pepsi, Bank of Nova Scotia, and an American medical REIT $MPW over the next couple of months. I might keep about 5% of my portfolio in spec plays, but it’ll be a very small amount. Getting started young on a dividend portfolio seems like a great way to build a passive income for the later years in life.

[nutlord]

Thing is about buying AC stock, although I completely believe it will go back up to around $50 at some point, is that unless you put in a lot the potential returns are small.

The most it's ever likely to do is triple from its current price.

I don't have much to invest so I'm going for the super speculative loooooong shots. Not putting in enough so that if I lose it I'm going to be moving into the local dumpster but enough so that there's maybe a chance of some good returns.

I see what you’re saying as far as the spec plays, they’re a bit more flashy especially with a smaller portfolio. But why not dollar cost average yourself into a position with blue chips?

I appreciate everyone’s insight here, even though the discussion fell off the rails a bit. A lot of good arguments. Very valid point GoldenEagle about investing in airline stocks. Makes complete sense to stay away from them. I do have AC in my portfolio currently. I’m thinking we’ll see $30 within the next year and a half and $35 and maybe even a high end of $40 within the next 3 years. After that I’ll get out of AC and stay away from airlines. Ash Ketchum you make a good point too, I’m a young flight instructor and I know the pay cheques aren’t the best.

My investment plan going forward is to take 10% of my pay cheque and invest. I plan on dollar cost averaging my way into a high dividend yield portfolio. Currently I hold Enbridge, looking to get into Telus, Pepsi, Bank of Nova Scotia, and an American medical REIT $MPW over the next couple of months. I might keep about 5% of my portfolio in spec plays, but it’ll be a very small amount. Getting started young on a dividend portfolio seems like a great way to build a passive income for the later years in life.

I'm currently almost entirely in on XQQ and VFV. The hope is that they'll grow significantly over the next 20-30 years, and then I'll rebalance toward dividend stocks.

Is there an argument for investing from an earlier age in divedend stocks vice seeking growth?

[porcsord]

Not financial advice, I am not a fiduciary,

I'm a mid 30's person, who has never worked for, nor ever will work for an airline. I won't have a company pension, and I'll never make 300k a year. So already my advice is probably dubious at best.

If you're young and can tolerate roommates and are planning to be in a fixed location for >5 years, my first piece of financial advice would be to buy a house that you can afford on your own, but rent out rooms to colleagues or friends. The first 5 years of my mortgage were entirely funded by my tenants. During that time I also paid that amount again on the principal, reducing my mortgage from 25 to 13 years in the first 5. The room mate thing can be great when you're younger and will put you miles ahead financially.

Stocks: I've made money and I've lost money in the market. I'm now fairly conservative and don't usually pick and choose stocks (with the exception of the major Canadian Banks, and a few other select bluechip stocks). I generally invest in indexed funds, as generally speaking time in the market beats timing the market and generally speaking the market trends upwards over time.

RRSP: Because I don't have a pension, I invest heavily in my RRSP. If you don't have a pension coming, throw as much money as you can early one into these.

Investment properties: Can pay off well, can also be a nightmare depending on your tenants and oh let's say pandemics that lead to moratoriums on evictions. If you can't afford to float the second mortgage, you are not in a position to buy a rental property, and if you do buy one, understand that you are gambling (which can obviously pay off, but it can also bankrupt you).

My final thoughts on mortgages, I'm paying mine off quickly. I could probably make more money investing what I'm putting into my mortgage, but on the flip side I'll be very recession proof before I'm 40, because I will have no debt on anything and my monthly expenses shrink to a point where EI would provide a surplus in required funds.

With my system, I'll never own a 60' yacht or a house in West Vancouver, but I will be retiring comfortably in the time frame that I want. I don't want to retire at 50, but I also don't want to be working full time in my 60's.

PS