Bankruptcy.

[Latitude]

the thread is valid cause it likely will happen. i am confident ac will survive as we are to big to fail. trudeau knows this he'll give us some help in a few weeks, you'll see.

Transat never went bankrupt or CCAA in 34 years... it’s name isn’t Air Canada

[Splash]

Worse case scenario is AT files for CCAA protection and restructures their debt. It would come out leaner, meaner and likely a viable operation.

[RippleRock]

The Moderators should --delete this thread-- as it is only intended to cause anxiety, and generally "shit disturb".

There is no reason it should be allowed to continue. The poster should be banned.

you mean just as every transat pilot on this forum tried to do on the other threads? ok snowflake.

Maybe you'll have the chance to grace my flightdeck with your presence someday. We'll find out who the Snowlake is. Jackass.

[rudder]

Just so people understand the actual financial situation at TRZ, here it is:

- ended January 2021 with $303M in unrestricted cash, $305M in restricted cash (in trust or reserved), $574M in customer deposit liability (including travel credits worth $519M for flights cancelled due to COVID-19), $50M in debt, and $853M in lease liabilities ($774M related to fleet)

- TRZ has a $250M short term credit facility that can be drawn on until May 31, but expires on June 30. Must be either repaid, replaced, or extended

- TRZ has stated that it needs to secure $500M in long term financing

- the PKP offer of $5 per share did not include recapitalization of TRZ

You can now get out the crystal ball or ouija board to identify what combination of LEEF or industry specific aid might present itself.

Better outcome is new ownership, or a commercial partnership, and recapitalization. Might be this side of CCAA . Might be the other side. Time will tell. The ones least deserving of rescue are the the TRZ shareholders.

[haironfire]

I sit here and watch, like a troll, but I will put another input, just because I enjoy it but also because I think it is useful.

We are pilots. But not stupid business people. We are smart enough to figure out when we are getting smoked.

In my past I got screwed at C3. I learned. But at Skyservice I was fortunate enough to see it coming, although it was painful to give up a B757/B767 Training Captain position to go to Porter, but I did it. I gave a resignation date of 5 Apr 2010. Skyservice went out of business 31 Mar 2010

Then, when at Bombardier no CSeries sales for 1.5 years, and you could smell bankruptcy within, (before Air Canada or Delta announcements), I decided to move on and went to Sky Regional. Enough about my misfortunes, but I just wanted to set the stage.

So this is a good thread. AT could go bankrupt if they don't protect themselves. And the pilots should try and do their best to defend, or at least be prepared. AT has some big loan difficulties coming up in the next few months.

There is a lot of action now when exposed as they are. This is not a stupid thread, but very real. I think they will survive because they have a lot of very good assets and potential. Better days ahead.

[simply_no_one]

If I was a fairly junior pilot at Air Transat, I would be applying to Flair right now.

[haironfire]

A good point. How do you play this one?

2 very big loans coming due for the company. As a very good smart business pilot ( which I pretend to be) all you can do is watch the outcome.

sit and wait, or do you do something about it?

I have friends at AT. I do not say this to be mean, only we are ALL vulnerable. Be very careful.

[simply_no_one]

I think a lot of AT employees are blind (on purpose or by ignorance) to how bad the current situation is. AT needs a bailout asap, or a heavy hitter investor willing to take on what... 500 million in debt obligations?

Going to be an interesting few months. Hopefully it all works out and AT sticks around as more competition is good, and everyone keeps their job. But a lot hinges on the government and if the last year has been any indicator, I'd be worried.

A good point. How do you play this one?

2 very big loans coming due for the company. As a very good smart business pilot ( which I pretend to be) all you can do is watch the outcome.

sit and wait, or do you do something about it?

If you are on layoff and quite junior right now, finding other work would be smart. Recalls may take time... if AT goes through CCAA they could end up smaller which could mean years before a recall. AT went through some massive growth over the last few years, it's not impossible to think they could be a 300-400 pilot operation for the near future. Find something to pay the bills and take care of yourself and your family and hold on to your recall rights.

[fish4life]

CCAA is probably the best thing for Transat, if they sneak by without going through CCAA they will end up hindered by debt and it will be tougher going forward. If they go through CCAA they can clear some bad debt and aircraft leases allowing them to be healthier on the recovery side. As a potential buyer of Transat I would wait for CCAA and scoop them up after not buy a debt laden company before

[Splash]

CCAA is probably the best thing for Transat, if they sneak by without going through CCAA they will end up hindered by debt and it will be tougher going forward. If they go through CCAA they can clear some bad debt and aircraft leases allowing them to be healthier on the recovery side. As a potential buyer of Transat I would wait for CCAA and scoop them up after not buy a debt laden company before

I agree with everything you wrote in your post, however it's important to remember employees usually also take a haircut in the CCAA process.

[TFTMB heavy]

I think a lot of AT employees are blind (on purpose or by ignorance) to how bad the current situation is. AT needs a bailout asap, or a heavy hitter investor willing to take on what... 500 million in debt obligations?

Not at all. A lot of people are worried about CCAA and their future but working for a charter company that has survived for this long does bring some hope. If we pull through we will bounce back leaner and let's hope we can make some money.

Employees will have to make concessions going through CCAA but we would regardless anyways. TS has knocked on ALPAs door in the past and it will not be any different this time around.

[Latitude]

I think a lot of AT employees are blind (on purpose or by ignorance) to how bad the current situation is. AT needs a bailout asap, or a heavy hitter investor willing to take on what... 500 million in debt obligations?

Not at all. A lot of people are worried about CCAA and their future but working for a charter company that has survived for this long does bring some hope. If we pull through we will bounce back leaner and let's hope we can make some money.

Employees will have to make concessions going through CCAA but we would regardless anyways. TS has knocked on ALPAs door in the past and it will not be any different this time around.

Cant believe you’re replying to someone who says a group of employees is ignorant... how classy is that ?

[TFTMB heavy]

I think a lot of AT employees are blind (on purpose or by ignorance) to how bad the current situation is. AT needs a bailout asap, or a heavy hitter investor willing to take on what... 500 million in debt obligations?

Not at all. A lot of people are worried about CCAA and their future but working for a charter company that has survived for this long does bring some hope. If we pull through we will bounce back leaner and let's hope we can make some money.

Employees will have to make concessions going through CCAA but we would regardless anyways. TS has knocked on ALPAs door in the past and it will not be any different this time around.

Cant believe you’re replying to someone who says a group of employees is ignorant... how classy is that ?

I have no idea what you’re trying to say.

[tsgas]

Captain Kirk (aka Keith Demello) you can go $#%& yourself!!!!! .

Some asshole is posting pretending to be Keith, that user name has 2 K’s. Keith didn’t start this thread.
Transat will likely go bankrupt and restructure but they will still be around and eventually all their pilots will have their jobs back. AC went through it and came out stronger and more nimble than ever.
Transat will need the right people in place to see them through to the other side.
Calin Rovenescue is working for Brookfield now leading their aviation investment business and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them enter the ring once Transat is available for pennies on the dollar.
Good time are ahead for Transat gentleman, they just have to see it through.

Based on Brookfield's history , it would be a shock for them to acquire Transat.

[DanWEC]

The wildcard being left out the equation is the gov't aid. It's imminent, albeit a fucking year late.
TRZ is far from the author if its own destruction, this is an unprecedented and unpredictable situation imposed by our own gov't, and it's impossible to draw parallels or comparisons to past situations or deals. TRZ definitely won't go under or be in receivership with the aid. I have no idea how it's going to play out, I only the landscape and the players will be a little different.

[altiplano]

We really can't imagine the depravity of this government.

Their motives are on a track so different from what a reasonable individual can rationalize.

[fish4life]

We really can't imagine the depravity of this government.

Their motives are on a track so different from what a reasonable individual can rationalize.

Agreed over 370 something days since they said airline aid was coming soon.

I guess Trudeau realized planes don’t run in electricity

[tsgas]

the thread is valid cause it likely will happen. i am confident ac will survive as we are to big to fail. trudeau knows this he'll give us some help in a few weeks, you'll see.

Transat never went bankrupt or CCAA in 34 years... it’s name isn’t Air Canada

There's always the first time.

[Jean-Luc Monette]

There's always the first time.

Really funny...

[Smoothpilot]

At what price do we start to dump this stock? It's lightly hovering at 4.51?