THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

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Inverted2
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by Inverted2 »

Lots of the wealthy elites are still buying property on the oceans (Obama etc). You would think they would be moving to higher ground if rising sea levels were that much of a threat. Part of the problem is the rising population in areas prone to natural disasters. More people = more people affected. Climates change. That’s the way it’s been for billions of years.
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by goldeneagle »

pelmet wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:03 pm Mind you, I am happily letting it benefit my oil stocks.
If you think the stock market is a real indicator, then do some comparisons there. Put up a 5 year chart, plot your oil stock against one that is on the other side of this same discussion, Tesla would be the poster child.

Then if you want a more 'apples to apples' comparison, do a 5 year plot, put Ford, Toyota and Tesla on it. 3 car companies, one focussed on gas guzzlers, one that swings both ways, and one that's is wholly into electric cars.

The takeaway from that, if you want a small residual income from your stocks, you bought Suncor 5 years ago. If you want a well funded retirement of luxury, you bought Tesla 5 years ago.
pelmet wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:17 am For those worried about dying from climate related natural disaster…….the trends can be useful……

https://twitter.com/ecosensenow/status/ ... 38726?s=21
Interesting to note, the big drop starts right about the time weather satellites started giving folks on the ground the tools to more accurately predict major events, and issue pre-emptive evacuation alerts. Probably some cause and effect in play there.

On the same token, if we do a plot of aviation deaths at major airlines we will see a similar drop, and it'll be on the charts starting right about the timeframe when simulators became a mandatory part of ongoing recurrent training. Another cause and effect issue in play.
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pelmet
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by pelmet »

goldeneagle wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:49 am
pelmet wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:17 am For those worried about dying from climate related natural disaster…….the trends can be useful……

https://twitter.com/ecosensenow/status/ ... 38726?s=21
Interesting to note, the big drop starts right about the time weather satellites started giving folks on the ground the tools to more accurately predict major events, and issue pre-emptive evacuation alerts. Probably some cause and effect in play there.

On the same token, if we do a plot of aviation deaths at major airlines we will see a similar drop, and it'll be on the charts starting right about the timeframe when simulators became a mandatory part of ongoing recurrent training. Another cause and effect issue in play.
Thanks,

As they say, the devil is in the details. My point is that the purveyors of doom male it sound like the death and destruction are getting worse. I am just showing some death statistics from the past, and not that long ago, to put things in perspective.

No doubt there are many factors in the aviation safety arena. I would say that system reliability, especially engines, has been very helpful, along with things such as TAWS. Remember all those airliners that used to hit terrain when we were younger. Pretty rare these days, yet the hills are still there.
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pelmet
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by pelmet »

goldeneagle wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:49 am
pelmet wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:03 pm Mind you, I am happily letting it benefit my oil stocks.
If you think the stock market is a real indicator, then do some comparisons there. Put up a 5 year chart, plot your oil stock against one that is on the other side of this same discussion, Tesla would be the poster child.

Then if you want a more 'apples to apples' comparison, do a 5 year plot, put Ford, Toyota and Tesla on it. 3 car companies, one focussed on gas guzzlers, one that swings both ways, and one that's is wholly into electric cars.

The takeaway from that, if you want a small residual income from your stocks, you bought Suncor 5 years ago. If you want a well funded retirement of luxury, you bought Tesla 5 years ago.
Tesla would have been nice to buy(and definitely not good to short - anybody here ever tried that?). But that sort of investment involves a large risk and most of these risky bets don't work out.

Suncor is not going anywhere for a long time. And yes, I my 'expert' investor bought Suncor 5 years ago(or whenever it was). I believe it is still down from when he bought it.

But I have been getting dividends all along. Now I have Suncor from a more recent purchase on my own and so far, it is up and going up more today. It may come back down, but the dividends are in the bank.

Good luck finding the next Tesla.
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Last edited by pelmet on Thu Jan 06, 2022 5:52 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by rookiepilot »

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022 ... t=business

The hottest 8 years in recorded history….the last 8 years. (Notwithstanding we’re freezing in Onterrible now)
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by Bug_Stomper_01 »

rookiepilot wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:20 am https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022 ... t=business

The hottest 8 years in recorded history….the last 8 years. (Notwithstanding we’re freezing in Onterrible now)
It’s not that cold there but western Canada is warmer for sure lol
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pelmet
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by pelmet »

Natural global warming is an issue we have to deal with. There will be benefits and problems. Let’s not make the problems worse……

https://twitter.com/ecosensenow/status/ ... 62017?s=21
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by pelmet »

Oil up this year, renewables…………Down, Down, Down.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... s.amp.html

Not sure if renewables pay a good dividend……never bought one.
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by pdw »

pelmet wrote: Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:13 am Good luck finding the next Tesla.
At first it seemed a bit vague what true energy cost of operating a Tesla actually works out to be over time. The recapture efficiency of every true electric car’s regenerative braking, now offered by automobile manufacturers everywhere, is a vital part in the challenge to reduce atmospheric carbon (emissions / fuel consumption) on the roads. Not sure how this mass manufactured model has rated for its regenerative aspect but for early purchasers that extra efficiency wasn’t necessarily the foremost consideration than it was about an image of electric only. The majority of greener motorists aim for lower longterm operating cost, and opting for the re-fuelable plug-in is a path to get there. Those vehicles need only a fraction of the fuel tank size as they’ve demonstrated fantastic range extensions especially with watchful eye for driving habits to enhance them.

Plug-in Electric/internal combustion engine (ICE) combinations (PHEs) work well in reducing carbon footprint with their minimal battery sizes. Investing in companies that mass manufacture them with their smaller electric motors (and thus smaller more-efficient regenerative-systems) will offer more new car buyers the opportunity to jump on the green driving energysaving-bandwagon while batteries/grids are still evolving/improving, as only a fraction of the battery-mass/charging-volume is needed per PHE system. The grid can handle many more of these minimal power-draws right away. They are also simpler for getting used-to adapting re-charging cycles to suit every driving need (i.e. also re-fuelable). Full electric charging support is still far from the two minute (esp small tanks) filling convenience enjoyed at pumps. Yes the PHE is amazingly energy-wise with some of the latest add-on innovations to ever increase the distance a measure of refined fossil fuel will propel it down the road.

All the large scale manufacturing capability and supplies exist right now for efficient / inexpensive ICEs which can be paired up in many more PHE drives for the sleeker/heavier SUV’s that consumers have already shown they love so much. Filling the demand for greener propulsion in this more transitional/gradual way ensures that the traditional fuel demand and price can remain fairly intact for oil producers and consumers alike in the meantime, and assures the money will continue to be safe in those investments. If that price gets too high in the downsizing process there’s always hydrogen (H) suitability to step in especially in fueling PHE designs; H has been waiting in the wings for a long time already.

Since H production systems need abundant electricity for electrolysis that separates the H (H2O’s 2 hydrogens) from the O (H2O’s single oxygen) of water molecules, there is a question whether this process can opt as part of PHE propulsion for re-utilizing braking electricity vs recharging/occupying battery-space. The H produced (also a gas-mixture to be drawn into the engine via manifold/intake) can supplement the PHE’s fossil fuel ICE fuel-injection.

In spite of PHE battery-success in emissions reduction, still 30 percent of the overall electricity produced/stored by gen-braking is presently lost, mostly as heat, loading/unloading from the drive battery. The portable electrolysis system with small H-fuel collection/dispensing cell for PHE could be another way to utilize those gigantic amounts of braking energy (the abundant electricity available for electrolysis), thereby not only solving a battery inefficiency issue but also opportunity for H technology to deliver ‘large scale’.
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by pelmet »

rookiepilot wrote: Mon Dec 13, 2021 6:56 am
‘Bob’ wrote: Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:59 pm Why do people always act as if the money disappears into thin air. As if none of that money involves a return on investment, job creation, or tax revenues, and as if none of that money comes from private investors or general consumers who want something better.

Renewable and sustainable energy and technologies represent perhaps one of the greatest economic opportunities of our time.
Complete lack of understanding?

I agree with the above, but it won’t happen without a major restructuring of our current economic framework, which has been built on an assumption of cheap energy and low inflation. Prices will rise.

Complaining about actors in their private jets is something i won’t waste my time with.
People act as if money disappears into thin air because so much gets wasted. That's why.

Rookie knows what he is talking about. People like to buy into simple-minded answers to complex problems. Here is a dose of reality for 'Sustainable Fuels'(I have underlined the important paragraphs if you don't want to read it all)......


Opinion: Inconvenient Truths Behind Sustainable Aviation Fuel


With the worst of the pandemic downturn hopefully in the rearview mirror, commercial aviation must now move on to face its greatest challenge yet: How to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Governments are making commitments to incentivize sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)—Europe, through February’s “Toulouse Declaration,” and the U.S., with the Biden administration’s aim to have enough SAF to meet 5-10% of jet fuel demand by 2030 and 100% by 2050, including through tax credits. A growing list of nations, industry associations, airlines and manufacturers have voiced their intentions, positioning SAF to play a key role in achieving net zero.

Although still in its infancy for adoption, SAF has generated excitement as an attractive “bridge” to future technologies that may eventually include zero-emission aircraft. While SAF produces carbon emissions, many feedstocks are considered largely carbon-neutral as they “catch and release” already emitted CO2. eFuels are especially promising, given their potential to reduce life-cycle emissions by 90% compared with Jet A when combined with renewable sources of electricity and CO2.

As a drop-in fuel, SAF is mostly compatible with today’s engines and does not require costly fleet replacements. And unlike other propulsion technologies—such as electricity and hydrogen, which will be limited to short- and medium-haul missions, given energy and volumetric density limitations—SAF offers a ubiquitous option.

Several pathways are already approved at blends of up to 50%, with the feasibility of 100% SAF flights already demonstrated, including a passenger-carrying United Airlines Boeing 737 MAX. Thus, many commitments have been made by public and private stakeholders to produce and purchase SAF.

But the ugly truth is that the sky is not the limit with SAF. A recent Bain study on future aviation propulsion technologies deeply explored the technical and infrastructure challenges to producing alternative fuels, including projecting future economics for production of SAF and liquid hydrogen at scale.

Our conclusion is that despite aggressive assumptions around technology and efficiency improvements over the coming decades, SAF production cost and supply availability will fail to meet aviation needs, falling short even with government incentives and mandates that spur early investments and adoption.

Today’s SAF primarily centers on hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), which account for more than 85% of all announced SAF and renewable diesel production capacity beyond 2025. Feedstocks for HEFA make up more than 80% of costs and present unique supply challenges. Inputs of used cooking oil and animal fats have significant dis-synergies of scale, whereby collecting incremental material gets harder.

And even in a nascent state, demand from SAF and other biofuels has already pushed up input prices significantly, more than doubling them in the past two years, leading to perverse incentives attracting nonsustainable feedstocks like virgin palm oil. Ultimately, theoretical supply is capped at around 40 metric tons, which would address less than 10% of 2050 Jet A demand.

Other feedstocks like biomass, municipal solid waste and the holy grail of eFuels will require trillions of dollars in capital outlays. By our estimates, $1.3 trillion in processing and renewable energy would generate less than a 25% share of 2050 Jet A demand, and it would take more than $10 trillion to theoretically reach 100%.

Notably, refinery economics currently favor renewable diesel production over SAF production, so choosing aviation—which has fewer alternatives like electric-vehicle technologies already viable at scale—will require incentives and/or mandates.

Ultimately, costs of SAF estimated at 2-3x historical Jet A prices would need to decrease. While today’s elevated oil prices may help to reduce this gap, higher ticket prices would inevitably eat into travel demand.

To decarbonize commercial aviation, unless we are prepared to cap aviation traffic, the industry will eventually need to accelerate other technologies into its fleet and, more likely than not, require more time to get there.

Massive investments and incentives well beyond current committed levels are needed to accelerate other technology development and necessary infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, competing technologies are likely to split scarce investment resources and lead to delays in technology adoption.

Given that aircraft last on average a little more than 20 years and that technologies are unlikely to be available for mass adoption across fleets well into the 2040s, setting an improbable 2050 target can feel disingenuous.

Tough choices will need to be made. Either travel will once again become a luxury good, or targets will need to be revisited as we bet on scaling up technologies that largely only exist in the lab today. And these will need to be better aligned with the realities of physics, feasible technology maturation timelines and the limits of SAF feedstock capacity at reasonable prices.
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by rookiepilot »

Climate change is affecting us most immediately in electricity prices, and severe drought. The summer temperatures every day across a large chunk of the US, are 40 C every day. Drought is closely linked to electricity, and is also playing havoc with food prices.

I am sorry for the young folks. The world is a mess.
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

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rookiepilot wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:02 pm Climate change is affecting us most immediately in electricity prices, and severe drought. The summer temperatures every day across a large chunk of the US, are 40 C every day. Drought is closely linked to electricity, and is also playing havoc with food prices.

I am sorry for the young folks. The world is a mess.
Colorado River near Yuma AZ March 2022.

AP
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

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Natural climate change will have big effects on our future. We should adapt to the new reality as much as possible.
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

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rookiepilot wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:02 pm Climate change is affecting us most immediately in electricity prices, and severe drought. The summer temperatures every day across a large chunk of the US, are 40 C every day. Drought is closely linked to electricity, and is also playing havoc with food prices.

I am sorry for the young folks. The world is a mess.
Interesting. I just googled a wide range of American cities with searches for Miami, Dallas, Memphis, Houston, Phoenix, Boise, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Washington for the next eight days.

Hardly any 40 degree days. I was surprised to see none for Las Vegas. Even Dallas which always gets hot in August only has one 40 degree day. Phoenix....only three of eight in the hot desert.

https://www.google.ca/search?q=las+vega ... nt=gws-wiz

But hey, what do I know when it comes to "summer temperatures EVERY DAY".
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

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pelmet wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:27 pm
rookiepilot wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:02 pm Climate change is affecting us most immediately in electricity prices, and severe drought. The summer temperatures every day across a large chunk of the US, are 40 C every day. Drought is closely linked to electricity, and is also playing havoc with food prices.

I am sorry for the young folks. The world is a mess.
Interesting. I just googled a wide range of American cities with searches for Miami, Dallas, Memphis, Houston, Phoenix, Boise, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Washington for the next eight days.

Hardly any 40 degree days. I was surprised to see none for Las Vegas. Even Dallas which always gets hot in August only has one 40 degree day. Phoenix....only three of eight in the hot desert.

https://www.google.ca/search?q=las+vega ... nt=gws-wiz

But hey, what do I know when it comes to "summer temperatures EVERY DAY".
June.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/18/weather/ ... index.html

Early July.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/06/us/h ... tures.html

Mid July.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/prime/hea ... this-week/

4 days ago
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate- ... us-plains/

350 daily records fell in July.
A July heat wave that blanketed a huge swath of the U.S. set more than 350 new daily high-temperature records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... -rcna41129

Europe. UK hit 40 degrees. First time ever.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62216159
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

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Antique Pilot wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:39 pm
rookiepilot wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:02 pm Climate change is affecting us most immediately in electricity prices, and severe drought. The summer temperatures every day across a large chunk of the US, are 40 C every day. Drought is closely linked to electricity, and is also playing havoc with food prices.

I am sorry for the young folks. The world is a mess.
Colorado River near Yuma AZ March 2022.

AP
Lake Mead.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lake-mead- ... shortages/
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

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I wouldn’t use Lake Mead as my barometer for climate change. It’s a man made lake in a desert … personally I think it’s a cycle, the last decade seen areas getting higher amount of rain then they’re suppose to, others getting less. Also .. I seem to remember that summers were a lot hotter 20 years ago when they use to report ozone action days, no lawn mowers, no BBQ’s … funny how those just disappeared. Farms almanac is calling for a really cold winter .. fyi.

I’m not claiming to be an expert or know anything either way, but I know strangling the public with high fuel prices to “modify” there ways is wrong .. specially when “the modifier” is logging 26000km a month in a private jet. Surfs up!
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

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Localizer wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:35 pm I wouldn’t use Lake Mead as my barometer for climate change. It’s a man made lake in a desert … personally I think it’s a cycle, the last decade seen areas getting higher amount of rain then they’re suppose to, others getting less. Also .. I seem to remember that summers were a lot hotter 20 years ago when they use to report ozone action days, no lawn mowers, no BBQ’s … funny how those just disappeared. Farms almanac is calling for a really cold winter .. fyi.

I’m not claiming to be an expert or know anything either way, but I know strangling the public with high fuel prices to “modify” there ways is wrong .. specially when “the modifier” is logging 26000km a month in a private jet. Surfs up!
I don’t have any answers.
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pelmet
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Re: THE NEXT GIGANTIC ISSUE.

Post by pelmet »

rookiepilot wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:34 pm
pelmet wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:27 pm
rookiepilot wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:02 pm Climate change is affecting us most immediately in electricity prices, and severe drought. The summer temperatures every day across a large chunk of the US, are 40 C every day. Drought is closely linked to electricity, and is also playing havoc with food prices.

I am sorry for the young folks. The world is a mess.
Interesting. I just googled a wide range of American cities with searches for Miami, Dallas, Memphis, Houston, Phoenix, Boise, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Washington for the next eight days.

Hardly any 40 degree days. I was surprised to see none for Las Vegas. Even Dallas which always gets hot in August only has one 40 degree day. Phoenix....only three of eight in the hot desert.

https://www.google.ca/search?q=las+vega ... nt=gws-wiz

But hey, what do I know when it comes to "summer temperatures EVERY DAY".
June.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/18/weather/ ... index.html

Early July.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/06/us/h ... tures.html

Mid July.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/prime/hea ... this-week/

4 days ago
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate- ... us-plains/

350 daily records fell in July.
A July heat wave that blanketed a huge swath of the U.S. set more than 350 new daily high-temperature records, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... -rcna41129

Europe. UK hit 40 degrees. First time ever.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62216159
Yawn.....I have been hearing record heat every summer and record cold every winter since I was a kid.

Take a look at the 1930's if you want to see hot.

https://www.weather.gov/arx/heat_jul36

Of course, if that massive period of really hot temps had been this year, the usual crowd would be screaming the usual things that they usually say. Then as usual, they walk off to their business jets, yachts, fancy cars, and private personal aircraft after voicing their concerns and scolding us, thinking what good people they are because they have told others how they should change their lifestyle.
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