Looming recession and lay offs

[maverick12]

Considering every metric is pointing to a recession in the near future, are any of you worried about airlines closing shop and/or laying off workers despite this recent surge of hiring in Canada? From what I understand Jazz is hiring due to attrition and not growth so it is less to be affected with a downturn, but about the others? I.e WJ/encore/singing/transit/Porter,etc?

Does Canada have the market to support so much capacity in its skies during a recession, especially for airlines trying to break in (Porter)? Is Porters expansion a miscalculation?

[Localizer]

Considering every metric is pointing to a recession in the near future, are any of you worried about airlines closing shop and/or laying off workers despite this recent surge of hiring in Canada? From what I understand Jazz is hiring due to attrition and not growth so it is less to be affected with a downturn, but about the others? I.e WJ/encore/singing/transit/Porter,etc?

Does Canada have the market to support so much capacity in its skies during a recession, especially for airlines trying to break in (Porter)? Is Porters expansion a miscalculation?

I just wanna make sure I'm getting this right ... after the last two years of this &$#*ing bull*$#t you wanna slap some more doom and gloom on it just as the industry is finding its footing again?

[WellThatAgedWell]

imagine getting laid off twice in 4 years.

[tsgarp]

Between inflation, fuel prices and a Green/Communist alliance in parliament you bet you ass the airlines are going to be downsizing in the next year or so.

[goldeneagle]

imagine getting laid off twice in 4 years.

That was the norm back in the 80's for a lot of folks in this biz.

[‘Bob’]

Oh you sweet summer child.

[fish4life]

Considering every metric is pointing to a recession in the near future, are any of you worried about airlines closing shop and/or laying off workers despite this recent surge of hiring in Canada? From what I understand Jazz is hiring due to attrition and not growth so it is less to be affected with a downturn, but about the others? I.e WJ/encore/singing/transit/Porter,etc?

Does Canada have the market to support so much capacity in its skies during a recession, especially for airlines trying to break in (Porter)? Is Porters expansion a miscalculation?

The answer is no Canada doesn’t have the ability to support the capacity additions and there will be another set of layoffs with some airlines not surviving.

Inflation is just the tip of the iceberg, the Canadian economy has been propped up by a housing market that is so obscenely overvalued and interest rates rising to have to fight the insane inflation are going to bring it down hard, on top of that people are going to have another 500-1500/ month in payments on their mortgages that they can barely service now.

[Inverted2]

Well, people’s discretionary spending is going to take a hit when it costs $130-200 to fill your vehicle up and a trip to the grocery store is another $250. We’ve cut dining out lately for the most part. That is also getting very expensive. Now a meal out tends to be a Dominoes take out pizza.

[maverick12]

Considering every metric is pointing to a recession in the near future, are any of you worried about airlines closing shop and/or laying off workers despite this recent surge of hiring in Canada? From what I understand Jazz is hiring due to attrition and not growth so it is less to be affected with a downturn, but about the others? I.e WJ/encore/singing/transit/Porter,etc?

Does Canada have the market to support so much capacity in its skies during a recession, especially for airlines trying to break in (Porter)? Is Porters expansion a miscalculation?

I just wanna make sure I'm getting this right ... after the last two years of this &$#*ing bull*$#t you wanna slap some more doom and gloom on it just as the industry is finding its footing again?

Unfortunately reality doesn’t care about our feelings

[maverick12]

Considering every metric is pointing to a recession in the near future, are any of you worried about airlines closing shop and/or laying off workers despite this recent surge of hiring in Canada? From what I understand Jazz is hiring due to attrition and not growth so it is less to be affected with a downturn, but about the others? I.e WJ/encore/singing/transit/Porter,etc?

Does Canada have the market to support so much capacity in its skies during a recession, especially for airlines trying to break in (Porter)? Is Porters expansion a miscalculation?

The answer is no Canada doesn’t have the ability to support the capacity additions and there will be another set of layoffs with some airlines not surviving.

Inflation is just the tip of the iceberg, the Canadian economy has been propped up by a housing market that is so obscenely overvalued and interest rates rising to have to fight the insane inflation are going to bring it down hard, on top of that people are going to have another 500-1500/ month in payments on their mortgages that they can barely service now.

That’s what I was thinking, I’m quite happy at my current 703/704 going captain soon and it is pretty recession proof, but seeing my colleagues apply and get in at encore, Porter, Jazz now makes me wonder if I’m making a mistake not getting that seniority number or whether they’re in for a rough time come recession. Jazz seems pretty secure since it’s a cpa and it’s attrition hiring not growth, but if layoffs happen at WJ/swoop, encore guys are gonna get bumped by WJ guys, and Porter is trying to compete in an already saturated market with lynx, jetlines, transat and flair in there as well. What do you guys think

[NortherGoose]

The term recession seems to get thrown easily as a negative term leading to impending doom. In fact according to older definitions of a recession we are not headed in that direction as we have positive job growth and GDP as a country. The classification of 2 negative quarters seems to be evolving. Either way the big picture hers is that airlines needed 1000's of pilot pre pandemic, since then 3 ULCC airlines have started AC has increased cargo division and announced aircraft purchases. Wj and CJ have also ramped up cargo fleets as well. All the while the pilot group has stayed relatively stagnant or even declined due to early retirements or people leaving the career all together.

Doom and gloom of housing prices and those angry with the government should pick another forum if it doesn't pertain to aviation. Hiring is in full swing at every major airline in Canada. Asia and middle East contracts are coming up plus many pilots are eagerly strategizing how to get across the border. Aviation is in a more positive situation today then it has been in a decade.

[NortherGoose]

The term recession seems to get thrown easily as a negative term leading to impending doom. In fact according to older definitions of a recession we are not headed in that direction as we have positive job growth and GDP as a country. The classification of 2 negative quarters seems to be evolving. Either way the big picture hers is that airlines needed 1000's of pilot pre pandemic, since then 3 ULCC airlines have started AC has increased cargo division and announced aircraft purchases. Wj and CJ have also ramped up cargo fleets as well. All the while the pilot group has stayed relatively stagnant or even declined due to early retirements or people leaving the career all together.

Doom and gloom of housing prices and those angry with the government should pick another forum if it doesn't pertain to aviation. Hiring is in full swing at every major airline in Canada. Asia and middle East contracts are coming up plus many pilots are eagerly strategizing how to get across the border. Aviation is in a more positive situation today then it has been in a decade.

[WANP]

Till your fields, and grow quality hay.
Many horse owners are wealthy, and will spend any amount to feed their mounts. Hay prices are already high, and climbing, invest where things are going to be bought no matter what.

[Donald]

In many things in life, but especially aviation, you won't know if you made the right career move until at least 5-10-15 years later.

[co-joe]

That’s what I was thinking, I’m quite happy at my current 703/704 going captain soon and it is pretty recession proof, but seeing my colleagues apply and get in at encore, Porter, Jazz now makes me wonder if I’m making a mistake not getting that seniority number or whether they’re in for a rough time come recession. Jazz seems pretty secure since it’s a cpa and it’s attrition hiring not growth, but if layoffs happen at WJ/swoop, encore guys are gonna get bumped by WJ guys, and Porter is trying to compete in an already saturated market with lynx, jetlines, transat and flair in there as well. What do you guys think

Get a seniority number, recall rights at most carriers are 10 years. You'll find work elsewhere if you get laid off in that time.

The thing that nobody has mentioned is: the worse off the economy is, the less money people have to spend on air travel, the more they will turn to ULCCs for their travel needs. Nothing private sector is recession proof, but in 1998 I personally asked Tim Morgan this exact question you are asking today, and that is what he told me. The names were different, but the concept was the same.

[flyinhigh]

That’s what I was thinking, I’m quite happy at my current 703/704 going captain soon and it is pretty recession proof, but seeing my colleagues apply and get in at encore, Porter, Jazz now makes me wonder if I’m making a mistake not getting that seniority number or whether they’re in for a rough time come recession. Jazz seems pretty secure since it’s a cpa and it’s attrition hiring not growth, but if layoffs happen at WJ/swoop, encore guys are gonna get bumped by WJ guys, and Porter is trying to compete in an already saturated market with lynx, jetlines, transat and flair in there as well. What do you guys think

Haha, jetlines, that’s funny.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

That’s what I was thinking, I’m quite happy at my current 703/704 going captain soon and it is pretty recession proof, but seeing my colleagues apply and get in at encore, Porter, Jazz now makes me wonder if I’m making a mistake not getting that seniority number or whether they’re in for a rough time come recession. Jazz seems pretty secure since it’s a cpa and it’s attrition hiring not growth, but if layoffs happen at WJ/swoop, encore guys are gonna get bumped by WJ guys, and Porter is trying to compete in an already saturated market with lynx, jetlines, transat and flair in there as well. What do you guys think

Haha, jetlines, that’s funny.

ULCC’s seem to be the future in Canada, the economy is a joke here with obvious elephants in the room like an out of control housing market and ZERO commodity ownership in Canada anymore. The country is in absolute chaos right now. Yes there will be more layoffs if (when) we dip into another recession. Jetlines….. we will see what happens this summer I suppose?

[rudder]

Want to know the best way to recession proof your flying job? Get hired sooner rather than later. Last in - first out.

[Bug_Stomper_01]

Want to know the best way to recession proof your flying job? Get hired sooner rather than later. Last in - first out.

Lol maybe in airlines… wait, no that’s not correct either. There is no such thing as “recession proof”

[McKinley]

Historically speaking, you can cause layoffs/ an industry downturn in several ways.

-Low consumer confidence
-9/11 style terrorist attack
-pandemic
-major financial crisis
-astronomical fuel prices


Right now, consumer confidence is at an all time low, the government is slow to relax C19 restrictions, war in Ukraine, fuel prices are at record highs and the economy hasn’t really recovered overly well.

I run a small firewood business … ( pandemic startup sidegig) some people are using wood to heat their homes … as it’s cheaper… think about that.

The UN is also predicting a global famine in the next several months … flying might be the last of our concerns…