Demand for flight instructors

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lidi
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Demand for flight instructors

Post by lidi »

Hello aviators, with the so called shortage of pilots today is there a shortage of flight instructors at the training schools or are there a lot of them getting their class 4
And looking for work.

Thank you
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TalkingPie
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by TalkingPie »

Just one data point, but asking at my local FTU about two weeks ago I was told that there was still a glut of laid off pilots which meant that there was little movement of instructors. The guy I spoke to was a fresh Class 4 who counted himself lucky to get a job at the school he got his rating from.

I suspect that things could change rather quickly, though.
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qwe221sd
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by qwe221sd »

Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.
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Bede
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by Bede »

qwe221sd wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:49 am Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.
There's a shortage of experienced pilots willing to work for paltry wages. Everyone else? Not so much.
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qwe221sd
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by qwe221sd »

Bede wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:08 pm
qwe221sd wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:49 am Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.
There's a shortage of experienced pilots willing to work for paltry wages. Everyone else? Not so much.
If there are zero experienced pilots in the field , the companies will choose end of operation or lower requirement?
It's chicken and egg question.
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digits_
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by digits_ »

qwe221sd wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:40 pm
Bede wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 1:08 pm
qwe221sd wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:49 am Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.
There's a shortage of experienced pilots willing to work for paltry wages. Everyone else? Not so much.
If there are zero experienced pilots in the field , the companies will choose end of operation or lower requirement?
It's chicken and egg question.
Reguirements have been going down for almost a decade. They are hitting the 1500 hour ATPL requirement and some medevac contract requirements limits for captains.
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Conflicting Traffic
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by Conflicting Traffic »

TalkingPie wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 9:35 am Just one data point, but asking at my local FTU about two weeks ago I was told that there was still a glut of laid off pilots which meant that there was little movement of instructors. The guy I spoke to was a fresh Class 4 who counted himself lucky to get a job at the school he got his rating from.

I suspect that things could change rather quickly, though.
This. The recovery is ongoing, but not complete. Give it 6 months, maybe 12 if things go more slowly than I expect -- assuming, of course, that nothing else bad happens to slow down (or reverse) the recovery.
qwe221sd wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 10:49 am Do you really believe there's a pilot shortage? People have been talking for 30 years.
Also this. Don't confuse a healthy job market (which we almost had pre-COVID and will likely have in 6-12 months) with a shortage.
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goingmissed
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by goingmissed »

I remember my $14,000 first year of instructing and my $22,000 second year.
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Big Pistons Forever
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by Big Pistons Forever »

If history is any guide there will be a sudden and dramatic loss of instructors as the training backlog of laid off pilots is worked through and major new hiring occurs. Jazz for example looks like they are going to hire over 400 new pilots in the next year.

In 1988 I was the junior new hire class 4 at a school with 8 instructors. A year later I was the only one left. In 2019 there was a dramatic reduction in Class 4 instructors applying for the upgrade to a class 3 as most were moving up before working long enough to qualify for the upgrade.

I predict in by next spring there will be a severe shortage of instructors.
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rookiepilot
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by rookiepilot »

Big Pistons Forever wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:17 am If history is any guide there will be a sudden and dramatic loss of instructors as the training backlog of laid off pilots is worked through and major new hiring occurs. Jazz for example looks like they are going to hire over 400 new pilots in the next year.

In 1988 I was the junior new hire class 4 at a school with 8 instructors. A year later I was the only one left. In 2019 there was a dramatic reduction in Class 4 instructors applying for the upgrade to a class 3 as most were moving up before working long enough to qualify for the upgrade.

I predict in by next spring there will be a severe shortage of instructors.
I’ll take the other side of that bet. Want to put some $$$$ up?
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Conflicting Traffic
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by Conflicting Traffic »

rookiepilot wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:01 pm
Big Pistons Forever wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:17 am If history is any guide there will be a sudden and dramatic loss of instructors as the training backlog of laid off pilots is worked through and major new hiring occurs. Jazz for example looks like they are going to hire over 400 new pilots in the next year.

In 1988 I was the junior new hire class 4 at a school with 8 instructors. A year later I was the only one left. In 2019 there was a dramatic reduction in Class 4 instructors applying for the upgrade to a class 3 as most were moving up before working long enough to qualify for the upgrade.

I predict in by next spring there will be a severe shortage of instructors.
I’ll take the other side of that bet. Want to put some $$$$ up?
I'm curious as to your reasoning. Assuming the post-COVID recovery continues, BPF is almost certainly right. Do you expect the recovery not to continue?
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digits_
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by digits_ »

Flight training is expensive.
Airline tickets are also relatively expensive.

High inflation, stationary wages, high fuel prices will likely cause more expensive airline tickets and less disposable income to pay for them.

I doubt the airline growth will last much longer.
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Squaretail
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by Squaretail »

BPF is correct, those of you betting against him are operating on the assumption that instructors in Canada are training people for the Canadian aviation job market, which they aren’t. Nor has this been the primary objective of The Canadian flight training industry for a while. Covid has created a substantial back log of training requirements, and schools are already winding up the puppy mills.
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I'm not sure what's more depressing: That everyone has a price, or how low the price always is.
digits_
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by digits_ »

Squaretail wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:12 pm BPF is correct, those of you betting against him are operating on the assumption that instructors in Canada are training people for the Canadian aviation job market, which they aren’t. Nor has this been the primary objective of The Canadian flight training industry for a while. Covid has created a substantial back log of training requirements, and schools are already winding up the puppy mills.
Fair enough. But that's only part of it. If the Canadian airline growth stops, the instructors will have nowhere to go, and thus there won't be a shortage.
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As an AvCanada discussion grows longer:
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-one will be accused of using bad airmanship
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by Squaretail »

digits_ wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:15 am
Squaretail wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:12 pm BPF is correct, those of you betting against him are operating on the assumption that instructors in Canada are training people for the Canadian aviation job market, which they aren’t. Nor has this been the primary objective of The Canadian flight training industry for a while. Covid has created a substantial back log of training requirements, and schools are already winding up the puppy mills.
Fair enough. But that's only part of it. If the Canadian airline growth stops, the instructors will have nowhere to go, and thus there won't be a shortage.
You are again thinking in a limited fashion. First data point is that most students in Canada now, aren’t destined for a Canadian airline seat. They are hoping to get cheap training here, get that initial experience here, then get a seat abroad. Since they will have probably a dual citizenship of some sort, there is a ramping demand for warm bodies in seats. In spite of a perceived high cost of living here, Canada is still, and will remain the cheapest pilot training place on the planet. Side note, there are big dollars to be made in recruiting foreign students, and I have spoke to brokers (for lack of a better term) who’s cut per recruit is anywhere between 10 to 40k. Per student.

The second data point is that there are increasingly jobs for both those students and instructors to go to. Just not airline ones, because in spite of the limited imagination of most of this forum, there is more to aviation than just airlines. A current driving force on the increased price of small airplanes is not only schools trying to grab up every last legacy Cessna to throw into the training meatgrinder, but there is a rising demand for such platforms for data acquisition. If you got an old 172 you want to sell, now is the time. The rest of the survey ready, and maybe more importantly, low-time-Pilot-friendly aircraft are in demand, do not stay on the market for long. 182s and 206s with holes are in the ads maybe for a month tops. These jobs are big appeals for fresh pilots, instructor qualified or otherwise, and my prediction is you will start to see more 1000 hour newbies, than 250 hour newbies. The bottleneck will be these guys looking to move into a right seat somewhere, and my experience with pilots says that once guys figure they’re in the market for that next job, they won’t go back down the ladder. My last resume net was indicative of that, guys doing non flying jobs for more money, rather than going back to instructing or another year of pilot slaving gathering data.

Lastly, every school I know is increasing their capacity, and already they have a revolving door of instructors. Lots of planes being bought, and even schools opening in places that have almost no local market, but they have free reign of an airstrip, and cheap local accommodations for foreign students. There’s a flight school in Claresholme for Pete’s sake.

So just because there’s not a seat at teal or red to shoot for, doesn’t mean there isn’t a perception that a pilot career is a good choice. If anything the market is better than ever, and only going to get better if you are a fresh license holder looking for that first job to get hours. And when you get your thousand hours and get disillusioned with the whole thing, there will be someone who wants to take your place and roll their own dice on making it to a seat in the big iron.
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I'm not sure what's more depressing: That everyone has a price, or how low the price always is.
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by rookiepilot »

Conflicting Traffic wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:19 pm
rookiepilot wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:01 pm
Big Pistons Forever wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:17 am If history is any guide there will be a sudden and dramatic loss of instructors as the training backlog of laid off pilots is worked through and major new hiring occurs. Jazz for example looks like they are going to hire over 400 new pilots in the next year.

In 1988 I was the junior new hire class 4 at a school with 8 instructors. A year later I was the only one left. In 2019 there was a dramatic reduction in Class 4 instructors applying for the upgrade to a class 3 as most were moving up before working long enough to qualify for the upgrade.

I predict in by next spring there will be a severe shortage of instructors.
I’ll take the other side of that bet. Want to put some $$$$ up?
I'm curious as to your reasoning. Assuming the post-COVID recovery continues, BPF is almost certainly right. Do you expect the recovery not to continue?
You really wouldn't like the answer to that question.
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by Conflicting Traffic »

rookiepilot wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:43 am
Conflicting Traffic wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:19 pm
rookiepilot wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:01 pm

I’ll take the other side of that bet. Want to put some $$$$ up?
I'm curious as to your reasoning. Assuming the post-COVID recovery continues, BPF is almost certainly right. Do you expect the recovery not to continue?
You really wouldn't like the answer to that question.
I really would, actually. More/better information is always good. This is especially true in bad times when advance knowledge of a problem can help mitigate the damage.
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digits_
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by digits_ »

Squaretail wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:31 am
digits_ wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 5:15 am
Squaretail wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:12 pm BPF is correct, those of you betting against him are operating on the assumption that instructors in Canada are training people for the Canadian aviation job market, which they aren’t. Nor has this been the primary objective of The Canadian flight training industry for a while. Covid has created a substantial back log of training requirements, and schools are already winding up the puppy mills.
Fair enough. But that's only part of it. If the Canadian airline growth stops, the instructors will have nowhere to go, and thus there won't be a shortage.
You are again thinking in a limited fashion. First data point is that most students in Canada now, aren’t destined for a Canadian airline seat. They are hoping to get cheap training here, get that initial experience here, then get a seat abroad. Since they will have probably a dual citizenship of some sort, there is a ramping demand for warm bodies in seats. In spite of a perceived high cost of living here, Canada is still, and will remain the cheapest pilot training place on the planet. Side note, there are big dollars to be made in recruiting foreign students, and I have spoke to brokers (for lack of a better term) who’s cut per recruit is anywhere between 10 to 40k. Per student.

The second data point is that there are increasingly jobs for both those students and instructors to go to. Just not airline ones, because in spite of the limited imagination of most of this forum, there is more to aviation than just airlines. A current driving force on the increased price of small airplanes is not only schools trying to grab up every last legacy Cessna to throw into the training meatgrinder, but there is a rising demand for such platforms for data acquisition. If you got an old 172 you want to sell, now is the time. The rest of the survey ready, and maybe more importantly, low-time-Pilot-friendly aircraft are in demand, do not stay on the market for long. 182s and 206s with holes are in the ads maybe for a month tops. These jobs are big appeals for fresh pilots, instructor qualified or otherwise, and my prediction is you will start to see more 1000 hour newbies, than 250 hour newbies. The bottleneck will be these guys looking to move into a right seat somewhere, and my experience with pilots says that once guys figure they’re in the market for that next job, they won’t go back down the ladder. My last resume net was indicative of that, guys doing non flying jobs for more money, rather than going back to instructing or another year of pilot slaving gathering data.

Lastly, every school I know is increasing their capacity, and already they have a revolving door of instructors. Lots of planes being bought, and even schools opening in places that have almost no local market, but they have free reign of an airstrip, and cheap local accommodations for foreign students. There’s a flight school in Claresholme for Pete’s sake.

So just because there’s not a seat at teal or red to shoot for, doesn’t mean there isn’t a perception that a pilot career is a good choice. If anything the market is better than ever, and only going to get better if you are a fresh license holder looking for that first job to get hours. And when you get your thousand hours and get disillusioned with the whole thing, there will be someone who wants to take your place and roll their own dice on making it to a seat in the big iron.
I accept your premise, I reject your conclusion.

Yes, the demand for training is there. Yes it's driven by international students. Yes, FTUs might be increasing their capacity.
Yes, there is a perception that a pilot career is a good choice.
Sure, pilots might not move back towards an instructor job.

However, the majority of employees in Canadian FTUs are still Canadians (or immigrants planning on staying in Canada). When they move on to other jobs, FI spots open up. If things slow down a bit, I anticipate there will be more of a FTU/703 - 704 - 705 progression. Meaning 703 spots only open up when 704 spots open up, when 705 spots open up. You -and a lot of pilots- might be happy in a 703 or 704 spot, most of them still end up in a 705 operation.

If the airline flying slows down -which I think it will when people run out of disposable income-, no 703 or 704 pilot will move on, and the instructors will have nowhere to go.

From our premises we can conclude that a lot of people are training to be a pilot, and some of them will want to be an instructor. So an increase in instructor supply with a forecasted reduced need of instructors once the 705 ops stop hiring, will result in a surplus of instructors.


I hope I'm wrong, really. But I would predict that by 2024 we're back to a 'nobody is hiring' situation due to a lack of demand for flying.
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by rookiepilot »

Conflicting Traffic wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 12:42 pm
rookiepilot wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:43 am
Conflicting Traffic wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 7:19 pm
I'm curious as to your reasoning. Assuming the post-COVID recovery continues, BPF is almost certainly right. Do you expect the recovery not to continue?
You really wouldn't like the answer to that question.
I really would, actually. More/better information is always good. This is especially true in bad times when advance knowledge of a problem can help mitigate the damage.
Recession risks are rising. Fast.
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Squaretail
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Re: Demand for flight instructors

Post by Squaretail »

You’re not reading what I’m saying. There is an increase in need for 702 pilots, which is going to change perceptions about how reasonable it may seem to get started in a flying career. This means that a lot of folks who might otherwise think that getting an instructor rating is the ticket up, now have another option. So do instructors for that matter, who are looking to have a resume that is perceived as being more desirable. In some cases it won’t even be 702 since depending on the method of data acquisition, it may not be necessary. This is going to be an unfortunate trend in the market for new pilots since I feel it’s going to drive down wages, or rather has already, if one has run into some of the 172 swarms floating around the country. The point being that while the demand for upper seats may diminish, I don’t think the demand for cheap Canadian training will in the near future, and the increasing availability of low time openings is going to increase which will fuel the appeal of training here.

In short, don’t underestimate the sales pitch of a quick thousand hours.
However, the majority of employees in Canadian FTUs are still Canadians (or immigrants planning on staying in Canada).
I don’t think you are correct in this assumption. Especially the latter part. Whenever I talk to a new applicant who is eyeing an airline career, they never talk about teal or red. Most schools I see are almost entirely staffed by immigrants of some sort of stage in their citizenship process, and none of them are married to Canada. A job back home is most of the time the aspiration. Or some place they feel is prestigious or pays well. Most covet a job with Emirates or Cathay.
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I'm not sure what's more depressing: That everyone has a price, or how low the price always is.
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