Negotiations

[rudder]

Anyone who compares Canada to Us argument is null- invoid...
Unless the boarder opens up. Until then it's pointless and a waste of time.

Actually, Canada and the US are closer to the same place than you think.

There are more job openings than qualified commercial pilots in Canada as of January 2023. Low bidder will have under utilized airframes and will need to adjust their commercial plan.

No bucks - no Buck Rodgers.

[kiaszceski]

It is clear they have decided to sacrifice routes and capacity vs pay pilots more money. It is an intentional plan to keep pilot pay low in Canada. And it appears to be coordinated. It will likely drive them both into bankruptcy. It is incredibly short term thinking, and will only see further pain later on.

AC is not going bankrupt.

Will we see Jazz being only Q4 and CRJ, then EMB transferred back to AC while shrinking Jazz? Would it make sense as it will be close to the 80 tails minimum by 2025?

[Malfunction]

I agree with you we are in a shortage. Supply and demand will pay out for us canadians eventually. But the current system is going to change or even break first. Who will be bankrupt who will shrink who will grow? No one can tell you that. But I can say is Jazz's current plan is to shrink so I assume AC is ok with parking planes because lack of crew if its temporary. The market is changing and getting more expensive to operate. People will start spending less, the current intrest rates havnt really priced in yet but once people start renewing there morgages at 6+ intrest rate extra spending cash will vanish. Lots of speculation here but just do the resurch yourself and come to your own answers. Air Canada obviously dosnt care about the contract and only follow it when it works for them. Your career is long be smart with your decisions.

[truedude]

It is clear they have decided to sacrifice routes and capacity vs pay pilots more money. It is an intentional plan to keep pilot pay low in Canada. And it appears to be coordinated. It will likely drive them both into bankruptcy. It is incredibly short term thinking, and will only see further pain later on.

AC is not going bankrupt.

I am sure they thought the same thing when Westjet showed up. They are giving up a lot of territory to Porter and Flair in their refusal to pay pilots more. That will have a huge long term impact on Canadian aviation.

[truedude]

I agree with you we are in a shortage. Supply and demand will pay out for us canadians eventually. But the current system is going to change or even break first. Who will be bankrupt who will shrink who will grow? No one can tell you that. But I can say is Jazz's current plan is to shrink so I assume AC is ok with parking planes because lack of crew if its temporary. The market is changing and getting more expensive to operate. People will start spending less, the current intrest rates havnt really priced in yet but once people start renewing there morgages at 6+ intrest rate extra spending cash will vanish. Lots of speculation here but just do the resurch yourself and come to your own answers. Air Canada obviously dosnt care about the contract and only follow it when it works for them. Your career is long be smart with your decisions.

Market is changing, and people will feel some pain. But walk into any restaurant, and they are packed. Also, the baby boomers are largely retired, and presided over the greatest accumulation of wealth in the history of the planet. They will still spend and take vacations. It will likely be a shallow recession, if we tip into one at all. And with China opening, the world wide demand for pilots will be huge.

The thinking Air Canada and Westjet are using, is myopic. And in the mean time pilots only grow more bitter.

[rudder]

Will we see Jazz being only Q4 and CRJ, then EMB transferred back to AC while shrinking Jazz? Would it make sense as it will be close to the 80 tails minimum by 2025?

It is possible if not probable that Jazz will be at 80 airframes (or a larger fleet of underutilized airframes) prior to Dec 2025.

It is already happening in Jan 2023 with little indication of a trend reversal.

[cdnavater]

Anyone who compares Canada to Us argument is null- invoid...
Unless the boarder opens up. Until then it's pointless and a waste of time.

First, it’s null and void and is typically used for legal issues.
I think you meant the argument is invalid, which is also not correct
Do we(Canadians) operate into the US market and do they(Americans) operate into the Canadian market?
Obviously a rhetorical question, we do and that alone makes us comparable. Our companies enjoy a significant labour cost advantage and was always part of Air Canada’s plan to lure Americans through its hubs to points beyond.
The reason our shortage is taking so long to have its full effect is the 1500 hour rule.
Make no mistake, AC executives are well aware of the cost advantages and seem to be sacrificing domestic flying to preserve the trans border routes. They know they will have to pay eventually but are likely hoping for one of the big competitors south of us to buckle under the significant labour costs they are currently enjoying. Every day they delay the inevitable is another day of huge cost savings and they probably have someone analyzing the breaking point where they will have to act, likely scenario of a competitor failing and shoring up the supply of cheaper labour.

[CaptDukeNukem]

Not sure which plane gets parked first.I imagine probably the smaller CRJs…

I think the Q400 do good fast work and the EMB provide more of a “passenger experience” than walking from a door to a steep set of air stairs. There’s a lot of calculations at play.

[cdnavater]

Not sure which plane gets parked first.I imagine probably the smaller CRJs…

I think the Q400 do good fast work and the EMB provide more of a “passenger experience” than walking from a door to a steep set of air stairs. There’s a lot of calculations at play.

100%

[digits_]

I have worked at 4 diffrent aviation companies in my 10years in aviation and I have never seen moral so low as it is a Jazz right now. We are loosing pilots left and right and I don't blame them. Pay sucks for left and right seat. AC treats us like second class citizens. Our own company won't budge on pay increases instead there hell bent on self destruction. I myself thought I was going to be a lifer at Jazz but I am in the process of Applying elsewhere.

I have been in this industry twenty years, and Jazz for over a decade, and I am also cleaning up my resume and logbook. It seems the writing is on the wall as far as jazz is concerned.

I have never in my life seen a company so hell bent on self destruction as this one. The training pilot pool continues to shrink, a product of retirements and resignations/just fed up. LTC pilots are starting to quit, all making it difficult to even bring people online.

People are quiting groudnschools before they even start, quiting halfway through training, or soon after. People leaving for everywhere, whom had never intended on leaving. All while management, or Air Canada, or whomever is in charge of this dumpster fire, have their heads planted firmly up their ass.

I suspect we are mere months away from being unable to meet the CPA obligations, and a few more away from outright collapse.

And all because of what... the idea of paying pilots more is somehow the more unpleasant scenario than the company complelty collapsing. Truly shocking.

Just mind numbing stupidity at so many levels.

Increasing ticket prices by 20% to compensate for a 50% hike in fuel cost: not a problem.

Increasing ticket prices by 2% to give pilots a 30% wage increase: WE ARE DOOMED. WE CAN'T DO IT. WE WILL GO BROKE.

[RoAF-Mig21]

Maybe the airlines know something we don't. Is there a crisis looming worldwide?

Is NATO and Russia going to start shooting at each other? Will China invade Taiwan? Nothing is "too bonkers" to contemplate. If you asked me 10 years ago if I'd see a full blown war in Europe in 2020s I'd say you're nuts.

[truedude]

Maybe the airlines know something we don't. Is there a crisis looming worldwide?

Is NATO and Russia going to start shooting at each other? Will China invade Taiwan? Nothing is "too bonkers" to contemplate. If you asked me 10 years ago if I'd see a full blown war in Europe in 2020s I'd say you're nuts.

They don't know anything. They just see what is happening the states with pilot pay, and will do anything to avoid it here too.

[Rowdy]

It is clear they have decided to sacrifice routes and capacity vs pay pilots more money. It is an intentional plan to keep pilot pay low in Canada. And it appears to be coordinated. It will likely drive them both into bankruptcy. It is incredibly short term thinking, and will only see further pain later on.

AC is not going bankrupt.

Will we see Jazz being only Q4 and CRJ, then EMB transferred back to AC while shrinking Jazz? Would it make sense as it will be close to the 80 tails minimum by 2025?

Highly Unlikely. The 175 would be too costly at mainline for crews. The CRj 200's are gonna be gone. The Q is the backbone of the fleet with the classic being parked. I'd imagine you'll see something happen long before we park airplanes.

Someone said they'll just up gauge to the 220 and 320. Not likely. Can you put a 220 in Penticton? Smithers? send the 320 to terrace?

[Aspiredtofly]

I was offline for maybe 3 months. What's happening at jazz?

[CaptDukeNukem]

I was offline for maybe 3 months. What's happening at jazz?

Oh boy. You’re in for a doozie

[rudder]

It is clear they have decided to sacrifice routes and capacity vs pay pilots more money. It is an intentional plan to keep pilot pay low in Canada. And it appears to be coordinated. It will likely drive them both into bankruptcy. It is incredibly short term thinking, and will only see further pain later on.

AC is not going bankrupt.

I am sure they thought the same thing when Westjet showed up. They are giving up a lot of territory to Porter and Flair in their refusal to pay pilots more. That will have a huge long term impact on Canadian aviation.

Yes, AC is setting a low bar. Hopefully ACPA will deal with that in the round of collective bargaining that will begin this year.

But if you understand how solvency works (or more importantly - insolvency), AC is at virtually ZERO risk of insolvency based on its current balance sheet, free cash, unused credit lines, current and future capital expense obligations, and projected cash flow.

[truedude]

AC is not going bankrupt.

I am sure they thought the same thing when Westjet showed up. They are giving up a lot of territory to Porter and Flair in their refusal to pay pilots more. That will have a huge long term impact on Canadian aviation.

Yes, AC is setting a low bar. Hopefully ACPA will deal with that in the round of collective bargaining that will begin this year.

But if you understand how solvency works (or more importantly - insolvency), AC is at virtually ZERO risk of insolvency based on its current balance sheet, free cash, unused credit lines, current and future capital expense obligations, and projected cash flow.

Same was true in 1997 when Westjet had 3 airplanes... by 2003 things were different.

And you are correct, they are in no near term risk, but you keep giving away your backyard while taking out your ability to complete, doesn't take much to start hurting the bottom line.

[CaptDukeNukem]

I am sure they thought the same thing when Westjet showed up. They are giving up a lot of territory to Porter and Flair in their refusal to pay pilots more. That will have a huge long term impact on Canadian aviation.

Yes, AC is setting a low bar. Hopefully ACPA will deal with that in the round of collective bargaining that will begin this year.

But if you understand how solvency works (or more importantly - insolvency), AC is at virtually ZERO risk of insolvency based on its current balance sheet, free cash, unused credit lines, current and future capital expense obligations, and projected cash flow.

Same was true in 1997 when Westjet had 3 airplanes... by 2003 things were different.

And you are correct, they are in no near term risk, but you keep giving away your backyard while taking out your ability to complete, doesn't take much to start hurting the bottom line.

AC’s money comes from high end business travel and international routes. Pulling back a few small routes will affect them undoubtedly , but to a lesser degree than shutting down wide body work. It’s all strategic and we are merely pawns.

Who else is queueing up to tackle that market share in Canada? I guess people have options to travel south of border in order to cross the pond.

[truedude]

Yes, AC is setting a low bar. Hopefully ACPA will deal with that in the round of collective bargaining that will begin this year.

But if you understand how solvency works (or more importantly - insolvency), AC is at virtually ZERO risk of insolvency based on its current balance sheet, free cash, unused credit lines, current and future capital expense obligations, and projected cash flow.

Same was true in 1997 when Westjet had 3 airplanes... by 2003 things were different.

And you are correct, they are in no near term risk, but you keep giving away your backyard while taking out your ability to complete, doesn't take much to start hurting the bottom line.

AC’s money comes from high end business travel and international routes. Pulling back a few small routes will affect them undoubtedly , but to a lesser degree than shutting down wide body work. It’s all strategic and we are merely pawns.

Who else is queueing up to tackle that market share in Canada? I guess people have options to travel south of border in order to cross the pond.

If they paid properly, they wouldn't be shutting down any routes, and they would be starving the competition of pilots. Instead they are handing over the routes to the competition, while also giving them pilots to crew their airplanes. Brilliant business strategy.

[CaptDukeNukem]

Same was true in 1997 when Westjet had 3 airplanes... by 2003 things were different.

And you are correct, they are in no near term risk, but you keep giving away your backyard while taking out your ability to complete, doesn't take much to start hurting the bottom line.

AC’s money comes from high end business travel and international routes. Pulling back a few small routes will affect them undoubtedly , but to a lesser degree than shutting down wide body work. It’s all strategic and we are merely pawns.

Who else is queueing up to tackle that market share in Canada? I guess people have options to travel south of border in order to cross the pond.

If they paid properly, they wouldn't be shutting down any routes, and they would be starving the competition of pilots. Instead they are handing over the routes to the competition, while also giving them pilots to crew their airplanes. Brilliant business strategy.

I value your opinion…. But let’s be honest, AC has a spotted record with regards to the airlines it hires to do regional work. They shut down Georgian and sky mid contract. What’s stopping that happening with jazz and then starting up sky regional 2.0? they clearly are showing that they are happy breaking certain sections of the agreement.

Don’t forget EVAS used to do work for them too.

In AC’s eyes, there’s always a cheaper solution.