Number of commercial pilot licences issued in Canada has collapsed since 2019

[RoAF-Mig21]

Number of commercial pilot licences issued in Canada has collapsed since 2019

The number of commercial pilot licences issued in Canada has declined by more than 80 per cent since 2019, even as aviation experts warn of an ever-growing labour shortage that threatens to disrupt Canada's airline industry.

Transport Canada numbers show that the number of commercial pilot licences awarded each year was relatively consistent for much of the past decade, averaging 1,116 licences annually between the years 2012 and 2019.

With the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, those numbers fell off a cliff — to 474 licences that year and then declining even further to 293 in 2021 and 238 in 2022.

A commercial pilots' licence is needed to legally work as a pilot in Canada, and getting one requires a combination of ground school study as well as a minimum of 200 hours of flight training.

Further steps are required to become an airline pilot, as holders of commercial pilots' licences must still undergo additional training and flying time before they can receive their Airline Transport Pilot Licence.

More here:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/lifestyle/tra ... 2fdaf7a201

I can't say I'm surprised.

[digits_]

I can't say I'm surprised.

I am actually. Flying schools seem super busy. What is happening to those students?

What do the numbers look like if you include unprocessed applications?

[photofly]

Thousands are waiting for class 1 medical certificates to be issued to apply for the CPL.

[RoAF-Mig21]

Thousands are waiting for class 1 medical certificates to be issued to apply for the CPL.

This just shows the incompetence of a governmental agency ran by the Liberals, in which even "office work" that can be done from home was lagged behind. There is absolutely no reason there should be a backlog. They're using Covid as an excuse.

[photofly]

I think it’s more that every RAMO but one simultaneously decided the onset of COVID meant it was time to retire, funded by a generous federal government pension. I’m not entirely convinced it was a Liberal/Conservative thing.

[ogopogo]

Slightly off topic, but I am curious about the current generation of TC licences issued, in terms of licence number. I was first licenced in 1978 and have a six-digit #, 232XXX. (Actually at that time there was also the prefix, mine being YZ and then the licence type.

[lownslow]

It has nothing to do with party politics, the same TC employees will do the same jobs the way they see fit until they retire no matter who’s sitting in office in Ottawa. That’s the real problem: lazy bureaucrats that know the personal value of their government jobs who just put in the minimum as they run out the clock. Don’t get me wrong, there are good folks too but I don’t know the ratio and whatever it is there are enough lazy ones to drag the system down when the opportunity arises.

Back around 2017-2018 the big talk at the ATAC symposia was where we were going to find pilots in the future. Back then the numbers showed that there were fewer CPLs being minted in Canada every year than there were annual pilot retirements at the major airlines. That in itself was problematic but it got worse because at the time more than half of the professional pilot training happening in this country was foreign students who intended to return home once licensed.

[RoAF-Mig21]

It has nothing to do with party politics, the same TC employees will do the same jobs the way they see fit until they retire no matter who’s sitting in office in Ottawa. That’s the real problem: lazy bureaucrats that know the personal value of their government jobs who just put in the minimum as they run out the clock...

Well, it's up the the Minister to get his organization in order. It happens a Liberal Minister is in charge and I have to blame him. If it was a Conservative appointed one, then I would blame the Conservaties. This is a federal institution and there should be no reason why they're so backed up. NONE. We're still paying our taxes and I'm sure they're still getting their budgets.

[Big Pistons Forever]

The change in the total number of CPL's does not tell the whole story. I would suggest a large part of the decline was due to COVID restrictions on foreign students which reduced their numbers. I don't think the absolute number of Canadians getting a CPL in order to work in Canada has changed that much, however 3 factors are definitely affecting the through put.

1) Every time the industry picks up the operators raid the flight school leaving them short of instructors which means it takes longer to complete training.

2) The cost of getting to a CPL MEIFR has significantly increased in the last 5 years and is IMO starting to reduce the number of applicants

3) Delays in medical processing are definably part of the problem however I believe that TC is addressing the reasons for this and Medical process times are improving.

[Just another canuck]

TC is a disaster and disgrace every step of the way. Whether it’s medical processing, writing exams, reading and approving manuals, it doesn’t matter. They’re terrible. They know they’re terrible and they don’t care like almost every other public sector out there. They still get their budgets. They still get paid. They still get their pensions. And public disapproval and complaints do nothing. Tons of these federal employees are still working at home cause COVID is apparently so dangerous yet grocery stores, coffee shops and friend/family gatherings are fine. The majority are selfish leeches.

In contrast, I did an FAA medical last summer. Had to call them to switch my license verification and lo and behold, someone actually picked up the phone. They sorted the issue in about 30 seconds. Did my CTP course, wrote the exam and met with a DPE same day. Temp license issued and official in mail 3 months later. Canada is a joke.

[rigpiggy]

My sister was an ADM. I complained about the general malaise of our bureaucrats. She then told me that there were fantastic people in her department. An in the same conversation that she had to continually ride her people to get them to work, and had to decide whether to fire(and fight the monkey in court) or just give him a 500k layout to make the problem go away. Trudeau the first out in the concept of bureaucratic tenure. 5 years and you can't fire them, for cause of otherwise.

[DanWEC]

Prior to this news, beginning in about 2017 the number of active ATPL's in the country entered a deficit of about 1000 per year, and growing.

[rudder]

Prior to this news, beginning in about 2017 the number of active ATPL's in the country entered a deficit of about 1000 per year, and growing.

It is a STRUCTURAL problem.

Barriers to entry (cost and availability of flight training).

Imbalanced cost to compensation ratio (entry level earnings tantamount to a minimum wage job).

Snakes and ladders for career progression (reverting to starting pay on every job change).

The reality is some will do well (like a 25 year old hired by AC) but others will either make bad choices or just have bad luck running through multiple employers or hitching their cart to a purported career employer that fails.

An engineering grad starts at a six figure salary. We can barely reach a place where a commercial pilot can earn half that amount per year in their first 1-3 years after 2-5 years of education and training.

Status quo means a lack of domestic pilot supply.

[photofly]

An engineering grad starts at a six figure salary.

Most people don't have sufficient skill or intellgence to get a degree in engineering.

[rudder]

An engineering grad starts at a six figure salary.

Most people don't have sufficient skill or intellgencee to get a degree in engineering.

True. But that is mildly pedantic.

Let’s make it an electrical or plumbing apprentice instead. Or how about a Hydro lineman?

[photofly]

True. But that is mildly pedantic.

Let’s make it an electrical or plumbing apprentice instead. Or how about a Hydro lineman?

Do they earn six-figure salaries a couple of years after they commence training?

There are lots of lower (and higher) earning jobs than flying airplanes for a living. Try earning your living as a musician, or a poet, or an actor. At least as a pilot even if you're significantly below median in terms of skill and ability, if you stick it out long enough you'll still get a decent salary. It's the ultimate zero-risk job.

[Arnie Pye]

We work in a free market. People are able to choose any career they want. Why aren't they choosing aviation?

Younger people are in need of far more instant gratification. the financial reward of becoming a pilot is just too far down the road and quite frankly, within Canada, too small of a reward for such a long wait. No one is making a 6 figure salary two years after being licensed.

I realize I am a different generation than anyone getting a CPL/ATPL now but it took me 10 years to make over $100k. My first job started at $25k and it took 5 years just to get up to the national average of $40k. I've been through two airline bankruptcies that sent me back to the beginning each time. Again, different times.

Most airlines have a 4-5000 hour Captain upgrade requirement. That will probably take you 5-7 years to get there once you're done your CPL. That's when the money starts getting better. Pretty long payback for a high expenditure.

What's the reward for our patience? Our salaries are from the early 1980's and our rent, car payment, gas, mortgage etc. is from the year 2050. We have a job that pays a full $100,000 less than it did 20 years ago (see the Air Canada thread comparing pre/post 2000 salaries). We are also working more days to get that pay.

It is indisputable that salaries in Canada have not increased for 25+years. Sure a COLA increase here and there but no real industry trend other than down. If this trend continues, a kid starting out now will be earning $51,000 by the time he retires (using Flair's current salary adjusting for 2.5% over the next 40 years).

It's a lot of money to dole out for a payback that is questionable at best.

We work in a free-ish market. You want to increase the supply, increase the reward. Air Canada - I'm looking at you.

[RoAF-Mig21]

...Younger people are in need of far more instant gratification. the financial reward of becoming a pilot is just too far down the road and quite frankly, within Canada...

That's a good point you make. Social media doesn't help. I remember friends my age in Europe that bought their type rating and were flying A321s and B737s at 200 hrs and I was stuck in the North flying a B200. I was so jealous of them, posting their photos, etc flying to Madrid, Rome, Budapest and other places in Europe. Social media will quickly remind you "how much better everyone else has it".

[rando]

The mistake history will show is those who get an education and enter the carrot dangling careers with a promise of higher wages, is the time value of money.

If a plumber/electrician etc completes their apprenticeship straight after high school and makes 60-80k/yr by the time they are 21 with small pay progressions through career and never any student debt. Contrasst against someone with a degree and a CPL, 80k of debt, first job and pays about 40k, takes them until mid 30s to catch up to the plumber in equal salary.

The plumber bough a house and began investing before 30, the pilot is a renter and just paid off their debts and rent until 35 when they finally scrap together a down payment. That pilot buys the condo from the plumber for 800k that the plumber bought 9 years ago for 230k.

Pretty raw deal for those who seek a profession and education in this country when wages lag significantly in many jobs. Don't fall for the education trap. Only get an education if you absolutely love that field, because it won't be for the money.

[TalkingPie]

We work in a free market. People are able to choose any career they want. Why aren't they choosing aviation?

Younger people are in need of far more instant gratification. the financial reward of becoming a pilot is just too far down the road and quite frankly, within Canada, too small of a reward for such a long wait. No one is making a 6 figure salary two years after being licensed.

I realize I am a different generation than anyone getting a CPL/ATPL now but it took me 10 years to make over $100k. My first job started at $25k and it took 5 years just to get up to the national average of $40k. I've been through two airline bankruptcies that sent me back to the beginning each time. Again, different times.

Most airlines have a 4-5000 hour Captain upgrade requirement. That will probably take you 5-7 years to get there once you're done your CPL. That's when the money starts getting better. Pretty long payback for a high expenditure.

What's the reward for our patience? Our salaries are from the early 1980's and our rent, car payment, gas, mortgage etc. is from the year 2050. We have a job that pays a full $100,000 less than it did 20 years ago (see the Air Canada thread comparing pre/post 2000 salaries). We are also working more days to get that pay.

It is indisputable that salaries in Canada have not increased for 25+years. Sure a COLA increase here and there but no real industry trend other than down. If this trend continues, a kid starting out now will be earning $51,000 by the time he retires (using Flair's current salary adjusting for 2.5% over the next 40 years).

It's a lot of money to dole out for a payback that is questionable at best.

We work in a free-ish market. You want to increase the supply, increase the reward. Air Canada - I'm looking at you.

Exactly this.

I'd like nothing better than to become a professional pilot. I'm sitting at 170 hours, chipped at slowly over the past few years around my full-time job. I would love to go all in and finish up the CPL and do my multi IFR full-time. I even have enough money saved that I could pay for that training up front, if I had to.

What I can't do is justify leaving my job, which currently pays my mortgage and flight training, and going all in on a career that has a very long payback and no guarantee that I'll be successful in getting to a point where I'll make decent money, or even recoup my training costs. Pilots are trained to manage risk, and to not take off unless they know where they'll be able to safely land. As far as this career is concerned, that's not so easy.

If the industry is having a problem getting workers, it's industry's responsibility to make it attractive for people to go into the job. Supply and demand works both ways. As it stands right now I've been working for a major airline for 15 years in a couple of different departments. I'm a known quantity in terms of reliability, have been willing and able to spend the time and money to get trained as a pilot, yet my employer won't even grant me an unpaid leave in order for me to pursue my goal of filling a hole in the pilot pool, let alone dangle a financial carrot to entice me to do it. The employers who rely on pilots to make their businesses run apparently don't see it as their responsibility to assure that they have a supply of pilots. I hope that the government doesn't bail them out now that market forces are playing out exactly as they're supposed to.