McKinley wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:24 pm
cdnavater wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:54 am
rudder wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:58 am
I think that 80 fins is where Jazz is headed sooner rather than later, irrespective of the 105 fleet guarantee to December 2025.
I could see 1100 flying positions for 2023. 1000 flying positions for 2024. And as few as 900 flying positions for 2025 and beyond. And that assumes no more drastic changes to the CPA (less than 80 fin fleet guarantee).
AC will order more A220’s and use those and the Rouge A319’s to repatriate more flying from Express. Express fleet will see fairly dramatic change. I see the 36 Q400’s staying, perhaps the 25 E175’s, but the 21 older CRJ900’s and some or all of the 15 CRJ200’s will leave. So, CRJ 900’s in YVR and E175 in YYZ/YUL. Q400’s still based both east and west.
A lot of this will depend on where AC goes with scope with ACPA. Right now AC cannot source any other vendor for the 55+ seat flying, and has restrictions on codeshare (UA North America cones to mind, including UA Express). AC either needs to feed itself at the hubs or find someone else to provide the feed if it is not AC Express.
Attrition to AC is predictable and manageable under a revised and reliable flow arrangement. Attrition elsewhere is now becoming a larger problem.
You cannot be the lowest paying operator and think that is sustainable. It used to be year 1-5. But with the pay changes at the operators that now attract Jazz pilots, it is all years of pay that need to be reset to 2023 realities.
In the US they accepted the new reality (pilot supply shortfall and numerous alternative employment opportunities) and reset pay in response (supply vs demand curve - wages MUST increase). Canada must do the same. Some operators have already moved in that direction. Jazz must do the same or suffer the consequences of non-performance under the terms of the CPA (as referenced in the Risk section of the AC 2022 MD&A.
As per usual, I can’t argue with your logic, would it be fair to say the top 700 of the current list are here until retirement and are mostly Captain? With 80 fins, could Jazz handle attrition due to retirement and AC flow. I would think so, they would really only need to replace 50ish Captains per year.
Any pay reset will have to come from AC, other than aircraft leasing under the CPA, I would think the margins are too thin for a significant increase.
The longer this draws on the more likely a purchase of Jazz from AC is, probably in the 60/40 range now.
I know it’s business but how could AC use the non performance clause if they created the situation, they drove the wages down systematically over the last decade. Would they use that to negotiate a new reduced fleet, absolutely.
Now that Chorus is the largest regional leasing company in the world, that will be their focus and a a sale of Jazz with the leasing agreements will take the CPA risk off the books. AC could do whatever they need with that asset.
I have to admit though, I’m getting slightly nervous about the lack of action to address the publicly known issues, makes you wonder what the plan is. They’ve had us beat at every corner and it’s hard to think we could win a battle, beaten dog syndrome!
Bullshit on beaten dog syndrome. Pilot wages / WAWCON are mostly a pilot caused issue. The unions are run by pilots …
How many of you opted to stand up for substandard equipment, pay or colleagues who refused to fly in crap WX, overloaded or over duty ( or all of the above) ? How many of you broke minimums?
Likely some stood up but not many …. Some of you probably took the trip from a colleague who declined the trip to get ahead… this dynamic propagates upwards into the airline environment from 702/703.
Until we change ourselves the status quo will continue …
Until it is no Longer cool to be little bitches and accept crap conditions /blackball those who do the Stu’s quo will prevail
Sooo… Wanna address this crap ? Look in the mirror… companies just exploit the toxic backstabbing culture .
Again, beaten dog syndrome.
You don’t know me and since this is an anonymous forum, I’ll forgive you.
I’ve been “laid off” and outright fired for doing what you said. First time I stood up to my employer was my first job at 250 hrs, he wanted me to go into a line of known thunderstorms with no contingency fuel, he told me that was what my 45 min fuel was for. I told him it was for unforeseen circumstances and that I was either a) delaying the flight or b) taking extra fuel and bumping freight.
His response was, I could find 10 pilots tomorrow who would do it, I did not and was let go a week later.
I never compromised on safety and eventually found a company that agreed with that but not without trial and error.
However in the airline world, we have stood up and if you knew the history of the Jazz/AC relationship over the last 13 years, you would understand the beaten dog effect I’m referring to. We won the battle at the time but lost the war shortly thereafter. The only leverage we have is due to circumstance, we have a no strike contract to 2035 and we were banking on the shortage to fix it, now we are here but after losing every battle for the last many years, it’s hard to think it could happen.
Also, and this is big, I’m 30 years in this business, every time it looks like a shortage is going to happen, something big reverses it, recession, failed company flooding the market with hundreds of pilots, Covid, etc.
Hard to wrap your mind around a positive, you know!